Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
334 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Solar Eclipse Day Has Arrived...Darker Skies Will Be Observed
Early This Afternoon...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

All is quiet around the Missouri Ozarks region this morning. Skies
were fair despite some high cloudiness being seen on GOES-16. A
small "dirty" ridge of high pressure is holding control of our
weather for today. We may just luck out and see fairly good
weather for the Solar Eclipse before widely scattered showers and
storms develop by mid to late afternoon across much of the area.

During the window between noon and 2 pm, we expect the majority of
the local area to see partly cloudy skies with some occasional
high cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds developing by midday or
early afternoon. At the time of the peak of the eclipse, we have
about a 10 to 20 percent chance of a pop up shower or storm.
Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during
the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb.
We wouldn`t be surprised to see some weather stations across
central Missouri and eastern Ozarks drop several degrees by 1 pm.
Heat index values may climb between 100 to 104 degrees for
portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern Missouri late
this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

The majority of all the model guidance shows widespread showers
and storms moving into the area very late tonight towards sunrise
Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The Tuesday morning commute looks
kinda wet and stormy for much of the area. If we can get some
breaks in the clouds and showers by the afternoon ahead of the
cold front, we may see an additional round of showers and storms
develop over southern Missouri during the afternoon and move
southward into Arkansas by evening. Because of decent shear and
potential instability, there will be at least a marginal risk for
a few strong to severe storms possible on Tuesday. Damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters will be
possible with the strongest storm. Localized heavy rainfall may
be possible but on average a half an inch to 1 inch will be
generally expected.

The region will be in a northwest flow with a Canadian surface
high pressure building across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region
for Wednesday through Friday. Very pleasant weather will be
expected with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and overnight
lows in the middle 50s to around 60. Very nice weather for the end
of August! Models indicate our next chance of rain may return by
late Saturday into Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Convection from earlier in the evening has mostly ended across the
area. A few showers were developing in northeast Oklahoma late
this evening. Have gone with VFR conditions through the period
with mainly high level cloud cover during the next 24 hour period.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.