Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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569
FXUS63 KSGF 280443
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Have bumped up pops for a few hours across parts of south central
Missouri around the convection that is neary stationary and in the
southwest corner of Missouri. Should start to see diminishing
trends in a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms have once again developed this afternoon
across portions of the Missouri Ozarks. Most of the storms have
been focused near areas of differential heating. We expect
scattered storms to continue into early this evening as cold pools
begin to spread out. Given abnormally high amounts of atmospheric
moisture and slow storm motions, the threat for localized flash
flooding will persist.

The coverage of storms will then decrease from mid to late
evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms will remain possible
overnight as upper level short wave energy approaches from the
northwest. However, we are not seeing the low/mid level isentropic
upglide signals that we have seen the last few nights. Low
temperatures should once again be in the lower 70s.

Scattered storms are again expected on Thursday as that short wave
trough moves southeast across the area. The best coverage for
storms will again be along and south of the I-44 corridor. High
temperatures may be a bit warmer with highs expected to be in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

We are continuing to see a signal for the development of a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) diving southeast across the
central Plains Thursday night. This system may clip portions of
extreme southeastern Kansas and potentially far western Missouri.

We will then remain in a northwesterly flow aloft into this
weekend. Models indicate multiple short wave troughs dropping
southeast across the region through Sunday night. This will keep
the chance for thunderstorms going both during the heating of the
day and also due to nocturnal MCS activity.

Upper level high pressure will then build back over the region
from the early to middle portions of next week. This will decrease
the chances for thunderstorms and will result in a warming trend.
We are likely looking at heat indices getting back over the
century mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A thin band of convection starting to refire along a boundary in
central MO, but believe this activity will remain confined to
points east of our terminal forecasts at this time. May have some
early morning light fog to deal with as we have a light or calm
wind and some boundary level moisture. For now have dropped tafs
down to 4sm for a few hours near sunrise. Convection may refire
by late morning or early afternoon as instability increases.
Should remain in VFR unless a storm can develop over the terminal
location.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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