Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 292323
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Blocking pattern persisting across the CONUS today with closed low
now centered across the Ohio valley region. Cyclonic flow around
the low extending to the west across the CWA. Water vapor showing
very dry mid/upper levels across the area. Visible imagery showing
main area of low clouds east of the CWA, but far western edge of
cloud cover now sneaking into Dent/Shannon counties. Decent cold
air advection with the cyclonic flow was keeping temperatures in
the 60s to around 70 degrees across the area so far this
afternoon. Main forecast focus will be with temperatures until the
middle of next week when the next upper low will approach the
region and provide our next decent shot at rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

For tonight into Friday, not much change from what we`ve seen
today. The upper low is not expected to move much at all, and
we`ll see continuing north-northwest flow aloft. Bulk of cloud
cover/scattered showers will remain east of our CWA with lows
tonight generally in the 50s and highs on Friday in the 60s to low
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper low will finally begin to lift northeast this weekend and
then we will await the next closed low from the west around the
middle of next week. Will start to see a gradual warmup by early
next week as the low approaches and our upper level flow becomes
more westerly with a southerly low level flow. By Tuesday night we
could see some upper level energy in association with the low
begin to move into the area with showers/thunderstorms moving into
the area. Precipitation chances will continue into the later part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Low pressure sitting over the Ohio Valley is expected to move
slightly westward during the forecast period bringing the cloud
cover westward towards the terminals with it.

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals sites for this
period. Mid and high level clouds are expected after 08z with
ceilings around 060 for KSGF/KBBG in the 12-14z time range.
Ceilings should lift to scattered to broken mid level clouds by
mid afternoon.

However...areas to the east of the terminals in central and south
central Missouri will likely see MVFR to occasional IFR conditions
after 08z that will persist into mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede



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