Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Moisture increases from the Gulf continued over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today. This pattern will set the
stage for another widespread rainfall event as we progress into
Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving weekend.

A slow moving storm system will approach from the west, forcing a
heavy band of rainfall as a frontal system slowly shifts across
the area.

Rain starts to get heavy over southeast Kansas late Thursday
afternoon and evening, and will shift east across the Ozarks into

The frontal system is expected to stall somewhere across
Arkansas, but will be close enough for post frontal showers
through the weekend.

A final speed max will pass over southern Missouri on Sunday
morning, shifting all precipitation east of the area by Sunday

We are officially forecasting widespread rainfall amounts ranging
from 2 - 5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)

A Pacific airmass will spread across the region next work week,
offering cool and dry conditions Monday through Wednesday.

Look for highs in the 40s and lows in the middle to upper 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Strong southerly low level flow will
continue to pull moisture northward into the area. Ceilings have
slowly been falling through the morning hours into the MVFR
category. Expect deteriorating flight conditions tonight with
ceilings slowly falling into the IFR category later this evening
and then continue through 18Z Thursday. Winds will remain out of
the southeast above 12 knots, with some gusts to 20 knots this
afternoon and again after 15Z Thursday. low level wind shear is
likely again tonight as low level jet strengthens. Not much in
the way of precipitation expected with the exception of some
patchy drizzle tonight and Thursday morning. More widespread rain
is expected after 18Z Thursday.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
     night for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
     night for KSZ073-097-101.



LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.