Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 071131

631 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today into Tuesday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Isolated convection has developed across portions of south central
Missouri early this morning as a low level jet and isentropic
lift has spread into the region. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop early this morning in the
area of isentropic lift, and will decrease later this morning as
the low level jet weakens. A few of the stronger storms may
contain some small hail with hail to the size of pennies.

Additional thunderstorms have developed across southeastern
Nebraska early this morning. These storms will track to the
southeast into northwestern Missouri early this morning and may
then track more southerly later this morning towards central
Missouri. This activity will weaken as it pushes to the southeast
and is expected to remain north of the area.

A warm and moist air mass will also continue to advect to the
northeast into the region today. 850mb temperatures will warm
into the middle 20s C this afternoon across the western portions
of the forecast area with values in the lower 20s C across the
east. As a result highs will range from the lower 90s across south
central Missouri to the middle 90s across extreme southeastern
Kansas and far western Missouri. Heat index values will warm to
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon, with the
warmest values across the western portions of the area.

The heating of the day will increase instability and will help to
weaken the cap east of highway 65. West of 65 the increase in mid
level temperatures spreading from the southwest will help to keep
the cap a tad stronger this afternoon. The convection that is
currently across southeastern Nebraska is again expected to
dissipate well north of the area, but will have to watch the
outflow from it even well after it dissipates as it will likely
continue to push south into the eastern Ozarks this afternoon.
With an unstable air mass, weak cap, and the outflow boundary,
scattered pulse type storms will develop mainly east of Highway 65
this afternoon into early this evening. Theta-E differences will
increase to over 30K which will support a localized downburst.

This evening a complex of storms will develop across the central
plains and track to the southeast into the overnight hours. A very
unstable air mass will remain in place ahead of this complex along with
high theta-E differentials, possible as high as 40K. This will support a
severe forward propagating line of storms. Think the strongest
part of the line will track east generally along the Interstate 70
corridor where the Theta_E gradient will be located. The southern
edge of this line will likely push south into central Missouri
tonight and will still be capable of damaging straight line winds
and perhaps some small hail generally north of Highway 54 and
across central Missouri.

An upper level trough will push southeast out of the plains tonight
and across the region on Tuesday. A weak front will push south
towards the area tonight, though the outflow from the complex
of storms expected tonight may become the affective front. Will
have to watch where the front will be located Tuesday. With the
heating of the day instability will increase again south of the
front, allowing severe storms to be possible again. The front is
expected to be across the northern portions of the forecast area
Tuesday morning, so the best chances for severe storms will
generally be south of of Highway 60 where the most heating should
occur Tuesday afternoon and evening. The main risk with this
activity will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the size
of quarters. The front will push south of the area during the
overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

The front will be south of the area on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions expected. A slightly cooler and less humid air mass will
spread into the area, as highs warm into the Middle 80s Wednesday
afternoon. The front will then push back to the north Thursday
into Friday, resulting in chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front will push north of the area by this
weekend, with typical warm and humid July conditions returning.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Two areas of convection are
currently occurring this morning, one across south central Missouri
into Arkansas and another one is weakening as it pushes southeast
across northeastern Kansas early this morning. The convection
across south central Missouri will continue to slowly push off to
the southeast this morning and will not affect the TAF sites. The
convection across northeastern Kansas is expected to dissipate
before it moves into the area and not affect the TAF sites.

Southerly winds will increase some with a gusts up to 20kt
possible at times this morning and afternoon. Additional scattered
thunderstorms will develop mainly across the eastern Ozarks this
afternoon. Expected these activity to generally remain east of the
TAF sites.

A low level jet will once again increase tonight and could produce
low level wind shear at the TAF sites overnight. Additional
thunderstorms will develop this evening across the Central Plains
and will then push southeast. This activity is expected to remain
north of the TAF sites through this TAF period.




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