Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 051750
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

Stratus continues to expand across the Missouri Ozarks this
morning, resulting in areas of fog limiting visibility to one half
mile (or less). Area web cams indicate that visibility does vary
across the region, as a result have included an elevated risk of
fog in the HWO and highlighted that conditions will quickly vary
on area roadways. In addition, a weak low level shear axis located
just to the southwest of the area is showing signs of isolated
shower development. This shear axis will be something to watch
through the day, as isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will be possible near this boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A mild night is underway across the region, with early morning
temperatures generally in the upper 60s and low 70s.  Readings
should continue to fall into the mid to upper 60s by daybreak.

A strengthening low level jet within the 925-850 MB layer over
central Oklahoma is just starting to set off a few very isolated
showers/thunderstorms across the I-35 corridor as of 230 AM, and
this activity is expected to expand to some degree and move east
through sunrise.  Short term guidance rapidly decreases the LLJ
between 12 and 15 UTC this morning, and this combined with a less
favorable airmass the further east one goes should limit the
eastward progression of convection this morning.  Most of the CWA
will actually remain dry, with just a few stray showers and
thunderstorms across the I-49 corridor.

By afternoon, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected, and
temperatures will respond accordingly, warming into the mid to upper
80s, with a few locations over southeastern Kansas perhaps touching
90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

Warm and breezy conditions are then expected through the night
tonight into Monday morning, ahead of a cold front approaching from
the northwest.  An area of widespread rain and thunderstorms
associated with the front will slowly move into the area from
northwest to southeast Monday, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours.  By late Monday night and Tuesday, periods
of thunderstorms and rain, heavy at times, can be expected across
much of the forecast area as the surface front stalls out over the
region.

The front will remain stalled through at least Wednesday, with both
the GFS and ECMWF bringing a surface wave northeast along the
boundary.  Lift associated with this feature will further enhance
the heavy rain threat.

Through Wednesday, rainfall totals between one and three inches,
with locally higher amounts, appear increasingly likely.  While much
will depend on the eventual track of individual thunderstorms, the
overall pattern is one suggestive of a heavy rain threat.  Given
already saturated soils and elevated river and stream levels, it
probably won`t take much to result in flooding/flash flooding across
the region.  This threat will continued to be watched closely over
the coming days.

Showers/thunderstorms should then become more scattered in nature
Thursday into next weekend, as the surface boundary washes out a bit
and weak height rises commence.  After cool and rainy days Tuesday
and Wednesday, temperatures should warm considerably Thursday and
especially Friday and Saturday, with readings returning to around 90
degrees by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the evening
and into the overnight. Although the threat for an afternoon/evening
shower or perhaps a storm are nonzero, the overall odds suggest
the better chances will be over SGF and BBG. There is a strong signal
for LLWS over all terminals after midnight. BBG will need to be
watched again for visibility issues early Monday. Both surface
winds and cloud cover are expected to increase by the end of this
TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Frye





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