Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Late Evening Update for Dense Fog and 06Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become increasingly dense across southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas where clouds have continued to clear...and
have gone ahead with Dense Fog Advisory for this area through 8
AM. Visibilities will be rather variable across the Advisory
area, with rapid changes in visibility over short distances
expected. Trends will be monitored for the possibility of
expanding the Advisory further north and east later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become more dense tonight than initially expected...and
will be the main aviation concern through morning. Visibilities
will vary widely in both space and time...with some terminals
seeing vis vary between VFR and airport minimums within the span
of an hour. Right now, fog is expected to be most widespread at
SGF, followed by JLN and then BBG. However, confidence in exact
magnitude is low.

Along with the fog...cigs will also vary widely...ranging from VFR
to LIFR.

Conditions should improve considerably within a few hours of
sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected from mid morning as
skies clear and fog dissipates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ077-079-088>091-
     093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






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