Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270823

323 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Clear skies were in place across the Ozarks early this morning
with temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees thanks to
breezy southerly winds. The southerly winds were occurring in
response to a deepening area of surface low pressure over the
central plains. An upper level trough was also beginning to move
out of the northern Rocky Mountains and into the northern plains.

As the surface low develops and begins its eastward progression,
a tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds through
the day. Winds will gust at time to near 40 mph in some locations.
The southerly winds will also continue to bring warm and moist
Gulf origin air into the region.

The surface low is expected to lift slowly to the northeast
towards the Great Lakes region through the day today as the upper
level trough makes its way to the east. The system will drag a cold
front through the Ozarks tonight and bring the potential for rain
and scattered thunderstorms. There is a very limited chance for
some strong storms to develop, however the window for the best
chances will be rather small. The instability that will be
available will be rather limited though shear and steep lapse
rates will be in place. There is an upper level jet that will place
the region in the right entrance region and bring a period of
upper level support from around the 03 to 09z time frame. But, the
jet streak will move out of the area rather quickly which will
limit the amount and duration of any upper level support for more
than a few strong storms to develop.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Behind the cold front, a more seasonable airmass will filter into
the region for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A
weak upper level wave will bring a minor chance for a few showers
on Thursday followed by a reinforcing shot of cool Canadian air as
we head into the the beginning of the weekend.

An upper level ridge will move across the CONUS next weekend as a
strong upper level trough digs into the west coast. With the
cooler airmass departing and another storm system developing over
the western CONUS, much of next weekend will be rather windy and


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Low level wind shear will persist into early Monday morning as a
low level jet stream shifts over southern Missouri. Brisk
southerly to southwesterly surface winds will also continue as low
pressure tracks northeast across the Central Plains. Gusts over 30
knots are expected from late Monday morning into Monday afternoon.
A cold front will then move into southern Missouri Monday evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
behind the front with winds shifting to the northwest.




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