Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262021

321 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Not much change to the overall forecast. Shortwave near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border will move east to the four state
KS/OK/MO/AR region by 12z. Increasing and veering low level flow
late tonight is expected to support a cluster of showers/tstms,
mainly for the sw or southern portion of the cwfa. HRRR is the
most bullish with other high resolution models not as aggressive,
but still have some signals for precip. Will need to watch rain
amounts in some of our more saturated areas of the western cwfa,
but not seeing anything that makes me overly concerned at this
point. Any hydro issues will likely be small scale/mesoscale.

Nocturnal precip should weaken as it moves east Wed morning, but
isolated-scattered diurnal development could occur late in the
day. However, overall shortwave ridging in the wake of the exiting
trough will probably suppress chances to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu
with ripples in the sw flow aloft. Hard to pinpoint a period that
won`t have at least some chance of showers/tstms. A sw-ne oriented sfc
front is expected to move Fri night/Sat as what is left of the
shortwave approaches the region.

It looks like we may see at least a brief period of drier weather
later Sunday into Monday as a Midwestern sfc high noses south into
the region in the wake of the sfc front. There is at least general
agreement with medium range guidance in keeping a weak upper level
shear axis over the area by Tuesday but with only modest chances
for precip given drier air expected to be in place.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Ceilings will gradually improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon at the
TAF sites as the stratus continues to erode. An area of
thunderstorms may develop in Eastern Kansas after 00z tonight and
begin to move into the TAF sites overnight however timing and
coverage is uncertain. MVFR conditions are then possible
overnight toward morning. Winds will remain around 10-15 kts
throughout the period.




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