Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201745
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A weak disturbance is currently pushing north across eastern
Oklahoma this morning. This feature will continue to lift north
into southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Scattered showers have
developed across eastern Oklahoma associated with this feature.
Isentropic lift will weaken as it spreads north into the area, so
coverage in convection is expected to decrease as its spreads
north as lift weakens. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
will still be possible mainly west of Highway 65 this afternoon,
but this activity will be hit in miss in nature and most locations
will remain dry.

Winds will pick up some out of the south to southwest this
afternoon and could gust up to 25 to 30 mph at times across
extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Highs will top
out in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. As temperatures warm
surface dewpoints will mix downing enough to keep heat index
values in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

While heat will be the main forecast concern for today and the
next several days, there is one potential fly in the ointment for
later today. A weak short wave trough currently over northeastern
Texas will slide northeast towards the Missouri Ozarks today.
Outside of the effects of the wave, the atmosphere will be
unsupportive of convection. However, weak lift and an increase in
mid/upper level moisture is expected to be enough to initiate
isolated convection this afternoon across southwestern Missouri
and extreme southeastern Kansas. It is actually possible that too
much moisture is present and we see very little in the way of
lightning.

Otherwise, the heat will continue with highs generally in the
lower to middle 90s. Some upper 90s temperatures will again be
possible out towards I-49...but an increase in clouds this
afternoon may keep temperatures from spiking too much. We again
expect quite a bit of mixing today which will keep dew points and
heat indices somewhat in check. We may not see as much mixing over
western Missouri given an increase in cloud cover. Nevertheless,
we are still looking at afternoon heat indices ranging from 96 to
103 degrees area-wide. Lows tonight will then be in the lower to
middle 70s with dry weather expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Five wave charts continue to indicate a strong upper level ridge
centered over the eastern U.S. into this weekend. This long wave
pattern will favor a synoptic scale upper level ridge
strengthening over the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot and
dry weather will be the result from Thursday through at least
Sunday. Highs in the middle to upper 90s will be the rule with
lows in the lower to middle 70s.

This pattern remains supportive of relatively high mixing heights.
This will hold down afternoon dew points over many areas...
especially along the Ozark Plateau. Afternoon heat indices will
therefore be very similar to actual air temperatures. We may
eventually need a Heat Advisory over some areas where several
consecutive days of afternoon heat indices over 100 are expected.

Medium range models then attempt to flatten the ridge/shift it
east just enough to allow a front to seep south towards the
Ozarks. Tough to say at this point how far south it will get, but
it may at least open the door for some shower/thunderstorm
potential and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Thursday morning and beyond.

A few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will be
possible this afternoon but these will be very hit and miss in
nature and confidence in a TAF site being affect is low at this
time. Otherwise scattered diurnal cumulus clouds and gusty
southwesterly winds can be expected this afternoon. Winds will
become more southerly and relax some this evening and tonight.
The wind will then become more southwesterly and pick up again late
Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise






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