Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A few clusters of thunderstorms have developed across central
Missouri and eastern Kansas early this morning, just along and
south of a weak frontal boundary that has moved into the area.
This convection will slowly sag southeast with time, and we may
see some additional expansion in coverage early this morning as
broad LLJ-induced ascent continues across the front.

Scattered thunderstorms will then continue for much of the day
across the region, as convection percolates south of the frontal
boundary.  Convection will likely be tied to the remains of the
early morning activity (including outflow boundaries), and perhaps
some additional diurnally forced activity if enough heating can
take place.

Temperatures today will be a bit cooler given the increased cloud
cover and thunderstorm potential, with highs in the upper 80s and
low 90s.

A few thunderstorms may continue into the nighttime hours
tonight across far southern Missouri, though most locations
should be dry from mid evening onward. Lows tonight into early
Tuesday will be in the low 70s. We may have to watch for a bit of
fog late tonight, especially for those areas that see
precipitation today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A slightly cooler and rather unsettled stretch of weather appears
to be in store for the area through the remainder of the workweek
into the weekend. Convection on Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be
diurnally driven, and focused along the more complex terrain south
of I-44. One caveat will be the possibility for overnight MCS
activity in Kansas moving into the area during the morning hours.
MCS development across western Kansas looks to be a decent bet,
but the predictability of the exact location is problematic more
than a day or two in advance, thus bringing into question if and
when any leftovers would affect the Ozarks. This will definitely
be a day-to-day forecast challenge.

By Thursday, there appears to be broad agreement in model guidance
that the upper ridge will strengthen a bit over the Great Basin,
resulting in weak northwest flow across the forecast area. This
suggests a more active period of convection as a series of weak
shortwaves ripple across the region. While not a constant rain by
any means, several rounds of relatively widespread thunderstorm
activity appear possible from Thursday through the first half or
so of the weekend.

It then looks like things may dry off, and heat back up, toward
the tail end of the forecast period, with extended guidance
continuing to advertise a strengthening of the upper ridge across
the region. This would suggest a return to above average
temperatures to start off the month of August.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Rain and thunderstorms will continue to dissipate across southern
Missouri early this afternoon. VFR conditions are therefore
expected to prevail with light winds.

More thunderstorms will then be possible from later tonight into
Tuesday morning. However, the location of thunderstorm development
is still in question. We have therefore opted to use the PROB30
group to cover this threat. MVFR and local IFR can be expected
near thunderstorms.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.