Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Large swath of cloud cover extending around the back side of the
low pressure system will keep the area socked in with clouds through
much of the evening and overnight hours before clearing out some
on Tuesday. This will keep temperatures from dropping too much.
We`re mainly thinking mid to upper 40s.

We still expect a break from precipitation to continue into
Tuesday with upper level ridging building over the area. This
should allow temperatures to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

An upper level storm system developing over the Great Basin this
afternoon will drop southeast into the Four Corners region on
Tuesday before shifting eastward into the southern High Plains on
Wednesday. Shortwave energy rotating around the upper trough will
move into the MO Ozarks/SE KS by late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. The slow eastward progression of this system combined
with already saturated ground will likely lead to some localized
flooding as several rounds of precipitation spread over the area
through late Thursday night. Instability and shear may also be
sufficient for a few isolated strong to severe storms. We will be
monitoring instability trends through the next few forecast cycles
and adjust severe threat as needed.

We see another break in storm activity for much of Friday and
Saturday before another storm system takes a similar track into
the region late Saturday night and Sunday. Extended model guidance
shows some slight differences with the timing/location of the
system with the ECMWF being more progressive with eastward
movement through Sunday night while the GFS cuts off the upper low
and slows eastward movement.

Do not see thickness output dropping too low through the next will carry near normal temperatures above freezing.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Pilots can expect prevailing IFR conditions tonight into Tuesday
morning with MVFR conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Low ceilings
will linger overnight and likely lower over the Ozark Plateau.
Ceilings will gradually rise Tuesday but likely remain MVFR much
of the day. Areas of light fog may also develop overnight.




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