Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
130 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The main concerns will be mostly heat related through the weekend.
A brief and welcomed break in the heat has occurred through
midday today with an outflow boundary from earlier convection over
northeast MO moving into the cwfa. The Lake of the Ozarks and
Rolla areas are in the 80s with upper 60s dew points early this
afternoon. Clouds behind the boundary, which extends from Nevada-
Springfield-to south of West Plains as of 1245 pm, will help
modify the air mass into the mid afternoon. On the flip side, the
boundary may help pool dew points this afternoon along it while
the air behind it also mixes out/modifies. In effect, it could
make things a bit more sticky for some. Have noted a bit of dew
point jump at KSGF as of 1 pm.

A few showers have popped up near or just behind the boundary at
times, but warm air aloft is holding things in check by and large.

With the upper ridge holding tough, will continue to the heat
warning through the weekend. Barring any repeat of what happened
today, it looks like Sat-Sunday will be among the warmest days in
the stretch of hot weather with temperatures in the 90s and
afternoon heat index values reaching around 105 deg F at major
airport reporting sites.

Rain chances looks slim, but with a weak sfc front expected to
move into eastern KS and central MO late Sunday, this could focus
somewhat better chances by late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

No big changes to the forecast. The upper ridge that has helped
keep the Midwest hot/humid will retrograde (or reform) back to the
west while an upper level low moves into/over the Hudson`s Bay
region. This will open the door for some northwest flow
disturbances to bring periodic chances for thunderstorms and
thankfully cooler temperatures. Global models are in good general
agreement with this pattern shift. The most notable shortwave
looks to be pass by Wed/Thu, but confidence/timing in any one
disturbance is low.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday night into early Mon as
a front moves south through the area, but then we may see a brief
period of quiet and less humid weather later Mon-Tue as weak high
pressure moves into the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Amended TAFS to account for wind shift to the NNE associated with
outflow boundary approaching from the NE. Brief 1000-1500ft deck
to be witnessed with the passage of the boundary followed by
isolated TSRA through mid afternoon.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.



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