Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



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