Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1118 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Clearing has spread northeast into most of, but not quite all of
our forecast area as of 2 pm. Temperatures rose quickly into the
low-mid 60s with good mixing and gusty south winds where it has
cleared. Sfc low pressure will move from western KS to southern MN
by late Sat. A separate upstream system will begin moving into the
southern Plains. Deeper moisture and somewhat better chances for
rain will remain south and east of the cwfa for the most part.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Sat night-Sunday: That next upstream system will shift east
through the Arklatex late Sat night and early Sunday. The best
chances for rain will be over the southern cwfa along with
possibly some isolated elevated convection/thunder.

Mon-Mon night: A shortwave ridge and the associated sfc ridge will
move through. Should be a quiet period other than maybe some
nighttime shallow fog chances.

Tue-Wed: Guidance is in good general agreement in moving yet
another system from the Central Plains into the Midwest. A
trailing cold front will move through the cwfa. Limited moisture
return will keep precip chances low/nil.

Thu-Fri: Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent with a
pattern change with a western CONUS ridge and a downstream
longwave trough over the east. Colder air, but not overly so, will
move into the area late in the week. Dry weather is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Expecting VFR conditions through the period, although will start
to see cloud cover move in during the day on Saturday, with
gradually lowering ceilings as shortwave energy passes to our
south. Could see some showers late in the period. Low level wind
shear will continue into the overnight hours with a low level jet
having set up.




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