Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
today into Saturday. This will result in the hot conditions
continuing through Saturday afternoon. Highs in the middle to
upper 90s and heat index values of 100 to near 110 degrees will
occur both afternoons with the hottest conditions occurring across
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. Will continue the
Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory as is as they capture the
expected conditions very well.

A area of surface low pressure will spread into the Plains today
and Saturday and will help to tighten the pressure gradient some
across the area. As a result wind gusts up to 20 mph will be
possible across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri today and

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

The upper level ridge will then flatten across the area as an
upper level trough moves southeast into the Great Lakes region
Saturday night into Sunday. An upper level ridge will then build
across the Plains west of the area early next week and will slowly
nudge east by late in the week.

A cold front will slide south through the area Saturday night into
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the
front, likely more scattered in nature. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler on Sunday, as highs in the lower 90s are
expected. Heat index values may still climb around 100 degrees,
and there may be a need to extend the heat headlines into Sunday.
But with rain chances and expected increase in clouds, will hold
off on extending the current Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning at this time.

The area will be in northwest flow aloft into the middle of next
week, and the front should stall near the area and could generate
isolated to scattered showers and storms at times early next week
but not a wash out by any means.

Cooler temperatures from what is currently occuring across the
area will occur early next week with highs in the 80s Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures will then gradually warm back into the 90s
during the middle to end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. A persistence forecast is expected with
no significant changes expected from yesterday. South-southwest
winds will increase somewhat after 15z with daytime mixing on Fri.


MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ070-071-079>083-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-



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