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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141709
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACCOMPANYING GUSTY SW
SFC WINDS. THIS SET UP AT THE SFC CAN AND SHOULD LEAD TO A JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING OR AT LEAST PUSHING 90 DEG F
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD COME CLOSE TO SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS
FOR SOME SPOTS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL AID IN A NICE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE JUMP.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW OVER BAJA BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST
TX BY 12Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST TO NEAR THE
FOUR STATES AR/OK/KS/MO REGION BY 12Z THU. CONVECTION
CHANCES...PROBABLY FAVORING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...WILL BE
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WED AND THU WITH A SLOW MOISTENING TREND. DESPITE
GENERAL 500MB HEIGHT RISES FRI-SAT...CAN`T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SMALL SCALE RIPPLES/SHORTWAVES...BUT OVERALL INCREASED
CAPPING WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND AN OVERALL DRIER COLUMN
SHOULD MAKE RAIN CHANCES SPARSE.

FINALLY BY SUNDAY-MON...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN MOVING
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS ALONG A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST IN THE CWFA...MAINLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WHILE SURFACE WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 KT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
FOR TODAY...MAY 14TH.

LOCATION       RECORD HIGH

SPRINGFIELD    88 IN 1947
JOPLIN         92 IN 1947
WEST PLAINS    87 IN 1988
VICHY/ROLLA    89 IN 1899

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...KARDELL
CLIMATE...HATCH