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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191655
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1155 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Satellite imagery and regional radars show a very weak and subtle
area of convergence zone across southeast Kansas into extreme
southern Missouri. There is a very weak boundary left over from
overnight storms north of the Highway 60 corridor. A few of the
models (HRRR, NAM, NAMNest) and have picked up on a trend of
isolated to widely scattered showers and convection trying to
develop in this zone later morning and afternoon.

Confidence is low but will mention this possible isolated
convection for today across mainly southern Missouri. Given the
shear is a little above normal for this time of year and strong
instability with low level moisture...will keep an isolated
chance of a strong storm or two with gusty winds and small hail
for this afternoon into early evening across southern Missouri.
High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s for most location
with heat index values approaching 100 for some locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Some models have been showing another cluster of storms developing
in Kansas very late tonight into Sunday but confidence is low at
this time. Will mention the chance again for isolated to widely
scattered showers or storms across the area on Sunday but most
areas will remain dry and very warm with high temps back in the
lower 90s.

Solar Eclipse Outlook...

The big day for sky watches is midday on Monday for the eclipse.
The NAM and GFS is a little more bullish with scattered convection
and more cloud potential as a weak surface trough of convergence
moves across the area. The ECMWF is less excited about QPF clouds.
With that said, will stay consistent with the forecast with a
slight chance of spotty showers or storm popping up during the
afternoon and with scattered clouds or partly cloudy skies. It
doesn`t appear to be the completely cloudy during the eclipse but
not exactly clear either. There will be a risk for scattered cloud
cover across the Ozarks Region with more clouds possibly just
north of our area.

A zonal flow becomes more northwesterly with a decent cold front
for this time of year moving across the region late Tuesday
evening. There will be showers and storms likely ahead and along
the front Tuesday afternoon and night. There could be a couple
strong storms possible given the shear and instability. Average
rainfall amounts will be between half an inch to 1 inch. Extremely
nice weather will follow for Wednesday afternoon through at least
Friday night with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and
overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60. That is very nice
for the end of August!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will occur through Sunday morning. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected across southwestern
Missouri into this evening. Given the limited coverage, we have
not included a mention of the showers/storms into the TAFs.
However, amendments will be needed (especially around Joplin and
Branson) if we determine that this activity will impact any of the
aerodromes. Brief MVFR/IFR can be expected around storms.

Winds will remain light out of the west today and will become
variable tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann