Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 111734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0229 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Surface high pressure slid southeast of the area yesterday and an
upper level ridge was building over the region this morning. A
tightening surface pressure gradient will bring breezy to gusty
winds today as a strong upper level low moves across the U.S.
Canadian border towards the Great Lakes region.

This will mean sunny skies and warmer temperatures for the region
with a gusty southwesterly winds bring temperatures in the upper
70s and lower 80s to the Ozarks for today.

The upper low across the northern U.S. will drag a dry cold front
through the area tonight. This will bring a cooler but still dry
airmass into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0229 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

A persistent northwesterly upper level flow will be in control of
the region`s weather through the week as the aforementioned upper
low over the Great Lakes lifts through New England and off to the
northeast. Several reinforcing rounds of cool and dry Canadian
high pressure will keep the region seasonable for the coming work

Both the GFS and ECMWF do indicate some potential for
precipitation with a cold front that moves through the region
early Friday. The precipitation output from the models on this
system continues to fluctuate and there is little confidence in
the output for now. Will continue to watch how the models handle
this, but at this time this looks to be the only possible chance
for precipitation for the next 10 days or so.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Band of mid level
warm advection manifested itself in 5K-6K foot ceilings for a few
hours this morning at KSGF and KBBG. This band has since shifted
east of the area. Stronger winds aloft has mixed down at the taf
sites and expect these to continue through late afternoon before
diminishing by early evening. Will likely see a few gusts to 25
knots at KJLN before settling down. With low level jet strengening
tonight, expect low level wind shear to develop at all the sites.

A cold front will move through the taf sites late tonight and early
Monday morning swinging winds around to the northwest. Latest
guidance suggest frontal passage between 10Z-11Z at KJLN, 11Z-12Z at
KSGF and 13Z-14Z at KBBG.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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