Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Radar as of 2 AM was showing the western edge of a band of
rainfall just east of our south central Missouri counties which
was lifting north-northeast. A secondary area of precipitation was
located from central Iowa into south central Kansas, where a mix
of rain and snow was occurring. Temperatures were ranging from the
mid to upper 30s so far during the overnight hours. Judging by
observations to the west, it appears that the rain has been
changing over to snow at around 34-35 degrees at the surface.

It appears that much of this event will be a non-event for the
Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas, but this will be our
focus for the short term forecast. Another system will affect the
area Friday into the weekend and will be our secondary focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Surface low was located over Tennessee along a frontal system
which stretched from the Ohio valley into the Gulf of Mexico early
this morning. The main upper level trough axis was located along
the western edge of our CWA. The surface low will continue to lift
northeast today into the Ohio valley and into southeast Michigan
by this evening. Meanwhile the upper level trough will shift east
across the CWA today. The light precipitation currently to our
west will shift eastward into the area today with temperatures
expected to remain at or above freezing. The light precipitation
will initially begin as rain or a rain snow mix and may change
over to all snow by 13-14z. With temperatures remaining above
freezing, not expecting much accumulation to occur and have
roughly a half inch as our highest amounts during the day today.
The bulk of the precipitation will remain closer to the surface
low track which will be well east of our CWA.

Should see clearing from west to east this evening/overnight, but
west winds back around to the south with southwest flow around 850
advecting in a warmer air mass into the region. So even though we
clear out tonight, lows will manage to remain in the mid to upper
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Christmas day should be sunny for much of the day with breezy
south winds occurring out ahead of the next area of low pressure
developing in the high Plains. Temperatures should rise back into
the upper 40s to mid 50s. The mild temperatures will continue into
Thursday night with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Friday will be another mild day with the cold front approaching
from the west. There may be a slight chance of a shower ahead of
the front, but most of the upcoming precipitation will be behind
the front. The front will move through Friday night with colder
air pushing in behind the front. May see rain change to a
rain/snow mix or change over to all snow. ECMWF continues to bring
more precipitation to the area with this system as it tracks
several areas of low pressure along the frontal boundary and is
slower to move the front through than the GFS. Have gone with a
blend of the models at this point which continues pops through
Sunday night in the eastern CWA. Temperatures again, will be on
the borderline with rain/snow so not expecting much in the way of
accumulating snow at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
experience low ceilings this morning.

Particularly for the Springfield and Branson airports, ceilings
are expected to remain IFR until mid day. Ceilings will then
improve to MVFR through the afternoon.

Specific to Joplin, we feel as though MVFR ceilings will persist
over that airfield, possibly dodging IFR today.

The low cloud cover will exit from west to east late this
afternoon or early this evening, leading to clear skies for
tonight`s period.

The chances for light rain or snow is becoming less likely,
therefore we kept precipitation and reduced visibilities out of
the TAFS at this time.

Regarding surface winds, breezes from the west are expected today,
eventually shifting to the south early Thursday morning.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer





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