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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260541
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA