Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Convection starting to develop along a west east boundary across
northeast KS and west central MO near the I-70 corridor. Pretty
decent elevated mixed layer was located along and south of the
boundary and developing convection including our forecast area.
Surface low was located over the high plains with dryline from
western Kansas into the panhandle of OK and TX. South-southwest
low level jet and mid level diffluent flow was aiding in the
developing convection.

This is going to be a busy weather day/night for our CWA and
neighboring CWA`s to the west and will be the main focus with this
forecast package.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Early morning convection will continue to increase north of the
CWA prior to sunrise nearer to the surface boundary. This activity
will gradually shift east today over mostly northern and central
MO, possibly affecting our central MO counties later today.
Further south within the EML, instability will increase
significantly with CAPES in excess of 3000 j/kg developing. Have
my doubts as to whether we will freely convect given the strength
of the thermal cap in place without a trigger, but will keep in
low end pops just in case. Best chance will be over central MO
where some outflow or ongoing convection may move into the area.
Dryline out west is likely to get active by midday as upper level
jet impinges on the central/southern plains and weakens the EML.
By late in the afternoon, the shear starts to become fairly strong
to our west and the combination with the strong instability
supports the moderate risk of severe storms from southern Nebraska
into central Kansas and Oklahoma. The best chances for supercells
moving into our area will be this evening and over our western
CWA, before they start to congeal into more of line segments. The
primary severe risk after that occurs will be damaging wind,
although we could still see tornadoes develop out of these line
segments through the rest of the evening and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Wednesday looks like a messy forecast. There will probably be
ongoing convection at 12z Wed to start the morning, but models are
clearing this out by late morning. With the front still to the
west, can enough instability develop in the wake of the first
complex for convection to refire in the afternoon. Best bet will
be over our eastern CWA, where the higher surface dewpoints will
hang around the longest. Current day 2 outlook shows this with
slight risk over the eastern half of our CWA. Would expect this
activity to clear our eastern CWA by mid to late evening.

There should be a brief break from the convective potential on
Thursday, before the active pattern brings in the next system on
Friday into the weekend. This has the potential to be a wet
weekend with closed upper level low sitting over the central U.S.
for quite awhile.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Rather low confidence in overall forecast, especially with respect
to the details. Short term models want to lift MVFR ceilings from
eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas northward into the taf sites. This
has been a trend for the last several runs and latest satellite
imagery also showing this trend, so expect a period of MVFR
ceilings this morning. Otherwise expect VFR flight conditions through
the remainder of the taf period with MVFR/IFR possible in
convection later today and tonight.

In terms of convection an area of thunderstorms over northeast
Kansas is expected to drop southeast into central Missouri by
mid-day. Expect this activity to remain north of the taf sites
though, but did include some VCTS this afternoon. Otherwise,
better chances will come this evening as convection across Kansas
and Oklahoma pushes eastward. Timing still a little uncertain but
will most likely affect KJLN during the early to mid evening and
KSGF and KBBG late evening to midnight or shortly there after.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.