Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 272325
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Previous heavy rainfall with the last couple of storm systems has
set the stage for a significant flooding event Friday night
through Sunday. Ground conditions are quite saturated with some
low lying areas over south central Missouri still flooded from
yesterdays event. Most of the upcoming rain will occur as runoff
due to the already saturated ground. A flash flood was issued on
the previous shift which will start Friday night and continue
through Sunday. In addition to the expected heavy rain and
flooding over the weekend, a warm front will lift into southern
Missouri Friday night and will be the focus for strong to severe
storms. The flooding and severe storms will be the main focus with
this forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

For tonight, an upper level trough will deepen to our west and our
upper level flow will begin to strengthen out of the southwest.
Shortwave energy will spread across the area ahead of the main
trough with clouds increasing and scattered showers by mid evening
through the overnight hours. Instability looks too weak at this
point to add thunder. Showers should end from west to east during
the morning hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

On Friday night, a strong low level jet will develop from the
southern plains and lower MS valley into our forecast area which
will advect deep Gulf moisture into the area with PW values by
Saturday morning reaching the 1.50 to 1.80 in. range.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front
as it lifts northward into southern MO Friday night. Strong shear
will be available across the entire area with sufficient
instability along and south of the frontal boundary for all modes
of severe weather possible including the potential for tornadoes.
Large hail and damaging wind would be the main severe weather
risks which would be near and south of the boundary across
southern Missouri. The main risk will be with significant flooding
as several rounds of heavy rain are expected from Friday night
through Sunday as this system pulls to the east. We are still
going with a widespread 3 to 6 inch range of QPF for most of the
area with the heaviest along and southeast of the I-44 corridor.
It is very possible that isolated higher amounts will exist within
this main axis of heavy rain as thunderstorms train across the
same locations. Due to the already saturated grounds from the
heavy rain of the last couple of events, this amount of rainfall
will likely cause serious flooding problems across much of the
area.

The dry slot will begin moving into the area late Saturday night
into Sunday with the main axis of precipitation shifting off to
the east with the main upper level trough shifting through the
area Sunday night. Much drier air moves in behind this system for
the first part of next week, although we are expecting lingering
flooding issues to continue for awhile into next week.

Another system will push into the area for the middle to later
half of the upcoming work week which will potentially bring
additional rainfall to the area. Long range models are differing
with positioning of QPF at this point however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions at area
terminals as we head into later tonight and Friday. Showers will
increase from the west tonight with lowering ceilings late tonight
into Friday. MVFR conditions are expected to develop Friday as
ceilings continue to lower.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster


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