401
FXUS63 KSGF 081743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (50-65%) for showers and thunderstorms beginning
  early afternoon across the area. There is the potential for a
  few strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts
  of 50 to 60 mph in addition to localized heavy rainfall.

- Additional rain chances (30-50%) persist through late week
  into next weekend. Highest chances occur in the afternoon and
  evenings.

- Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the
  upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Models show an upper level ridging pattern over the western CONUS,
creating northwesterly flow aloft over the region, with a shortwave
trough to our north/northeast just west of the Great Lakes. A
frontal boundary is currently bisecting central to northwest
Missouri, with a surface low over northeast KS/southeast NE. Some
lingering showers and thunderstorms have been observed across the
area during the early morning hours, however they have since
diminished. Further north over northwest MO, an MCS has been
pushing southeast overnight. Although this is expected to weaken
before reaching the CWA, this will play a factor in further
convection later this afternoon.

Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and a moist airmass
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will lead to strong
destabilization late morning through the afternoon, with >2500-3000
J/kg MUCAPE and marginal shear (~20-25kt bulk shear). With upper
level energy moving through the area, enough forcing and instability
is expected to lead to multicell clusters of showers and
thunderstorms (30-60% pops). SPC Day 1 severe outlook continues to
highlight a Marginal risk (1 of 5) for the entire area today to
account for the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. The primary hazards will be MCS-driven damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph, with localized heavy rainfall (PWATs
range between 1.5 to 2.0 inches) leading to a local flash
flooding threat as well. This activity will gradually diminish
through the evening as daytime heating diminishes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Once the shortwave pushes east over the Great Lakes region and we
progress into mid to late week, the overall pattern will support
daily rain chances. For Wednesday, much of the northwest portion of
the CWA will remain dry, with a 25-45% chance of light rain
southeast of I-44 in the afternoon/evening. Thursday will offer the
lowest rain chances (<20%), with higher chances (20-55%) Friday
afternoon into the weekend. All day washouts aren`t expected,
however where rain does occur, localized heavy rainfall will be
possible. Near-normal temperatures are expected, with daily highs in
the mid/upper 80s to low 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An upper level short wave will move across the region today
which will allow for the possible (20-60%) development of
showers and storms through the afternoon into the evening.
TEMPO/PROB30 groups remain for the KSGF/KJLN terminals as
confidence in coverage remains on the lower end. Any stronger
storm that impacts the terminals would lower visibilities from
heavy rainfall and bring changing wind conditions.

Where storms occur, winds may become gusty (20-30) otherwise,
winds will be generally light and variable.

Cloud cover will be variable through the afternoon and evening
with occasional periods of MVFR to VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Hatch