Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 132057
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

...A Round of Light Snow Likely Sunday and Monday Followed By
Another Arctic Blast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Our next disturbance we are watching is currently over western
South Dakota this afternoon and moving southeastward. The latest short
term high res model guidance have slightly increase QPF a little
bit and also the timing of a band of light snow to impact the area
late tonight into Sunday morning.

Light snow will develop across eastern Kansas after midnight and
spread eastward into western Missouri before sunrise. This band of
light snow will continue to move to the Highway 65 corridor
through out Sunday morning before tapering off and decreasing as
it moves towards the Highway 63 corridor and south central
Missouri. On average, about a half inch to 1 inch of snowfall will
be possible especially areas along and west of Highway 65 towards
the I-49 corridor. This has been highlighted in a Winter Weather
Advisory for late tonight into Sunday morning. This advisory area
may be adjusted if needed. The ground and road surfaces are cold
and any light snow will likely cause some travel impacts Sunday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

We are still tracking another Arctic cold front to move through
the area on Monday with another round of light snow and breezy
conditions. Models have been consistent with a band of light to
moderate snow moving from north to south during the day on Monday.
Additional 1 to 2 inches may be possible north of Highway 60 with
the highest amounts closer to the Highway 54 corridor. Less than
an inch south of Highway 60 is expected. Snow will taper off by
early evening near the Arkansas border. Gusty winds behind the
front up to 30 mph may blow some of the snow around as it will be
a dry and fluffy snow.

Brutal cold weather returns Monday night through Wednesday
morning. Overnight lows will be on either side of zero both nights
and highs only in the lower to middle teens on Tuesday. The
coldest night may be Tuesday night with light winds and the center
of the Arctic high over the area. With expected fresh snow on the
ground, went a little colder than guidance by a few degrees with
below zero low temperatures likely. Wind chill values Monday night
through Wednesday morning will likely be dangerous from -10 to -20
degrees below zero.

The overall weather pattern shifts to more zonal for the end of
the week. An upper level storm system will miss the area on
Thursday and move along the Gulf Coast Region. Milder temperatures
will return for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon into
tonight. A weather system will bring a quick round of light snow
or snow showers Sunday morning between 12z and 18z Sunday.
Ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR with the band of
light snow and have mentioned this potential with PROB30 groups in
the TAFs. Otherwise winds will start our northerly this afternoon
with a gradual shift to easterly this evening followed by
southeasterly by tomorrow morning between 5 and 10 knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
     for MOZ066-077>079-088>090-093-094.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin



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