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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211720
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Weak northwest flow aloft across the area, with main polar jet
axis along the U.S./Canadian border and then diving Southeast
into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Some weak energy embedded
within the northwest flow aloft had generated a couple of showers
north of the CWA around midnight, but these were falling apart.

Main forecast focus will be with shower/thunderstorm chances on
Thursday into Friday as tropical like moisture moves in from the
Gulf and a frontal boundary moves in from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

For today, another typical late June day (and first full day of
Summer) is expected today with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Weak surface flow will become southerly as the surface ridge
shifts to the east. 850mb temperatures will be in the upper teens
to lower 20s. Moisture associated with tropical storm "Cindy" will
begin to work northward late tonight as the system begins to move
inland from the Gulf. Have removed any chance of showers/thunder
from tonight`s forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Heading into Thursday, PW values of 1.5 to around 2.0 inches will
be possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with
the higher amounts across south central MO. It looks as if models
are keeping the track slightly further to the southeast of the
area than last nights model runs. Our thunderstorm chances start
on Thursday, but will mainly be over the eastern Ozarks initially
as energy from around the tropical system moves into Arkansas and
south central MO.

On Friday, a southward moving front will push into the area and
offer the best chance at showers and thunderstorms, with the
tropical low pushing into the bootheel and quickly into the TN
valley. Precipitation may shut off pretty quickly on Friday
evening in the wake of the low and front.

Models are showing some differences heading into the weekend. GFS
wants to keep things dry behind the front, while ECMWF brings
another wave of energy and precipitation into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Will keep the low end pops going through the
weekend.

Going with cooler than normal temperatures from the weekend into
the early part of next week behind the front with a cooler air
mass moving into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day into the early
overnight hours. Cloud cover will move up from the south towards
morning and MVFR conditions are possible at SGF and BBG Thursday
morning. JLN will likely remain VFR. Winds will remain light
throughout the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield