Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1229 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An upper level ridge is currently spreading east into the area
early this morning. Warm air advection and isentropic lift are
spreading across the area ahead of the upper level ridge. Some
weak radar echos are starting to be observed across portions of
east central Kansas into central Missouri currently. Scattered
showers should start developing in these areas early this morning
and continue into mid day across the northern portions of the
forecast area. It`s possible that a few storms may develop across
areas north of Hwy 54, but think the better thunderstorm
potential will be north of the area.

Warmer conditions will occur today as the ridge spreads over the
area and clouds clear from west to east this afternoon. Highs will
range from the upper 60s across the eastern Ozarks where clouds
will linger longer to the upper 70s across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri. Lows tonight will only drop into the 60s.

Southerly winds will increase today with gusts to around 30 mph
possible, especially west of Highway 65. The breezy and gusty
winds will continue into tonight as as storm system approaches
from the west. The gusty winds will pull increased moisture into
the area, but a dry air mass is currently in place across the area
and will take time to moisten up. Therefore, an elevated fire
weather risk will occur across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri this afternoon before better moisture
spreads north into the area tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An upper level trough currently across the southwestern U.S. will
spread east and close into an upper level low across the central
Plains tonight into Friday morning. The low will then move across
the Plains Friday and across the area Friday night and Saturday.
Gusty southerly winds will continue ahead of this system as the
pressure gradient tightens across the region. Wind gusts around
40 mph will be likely west of Highway 65 Friday and winds may
approach Wind Advisory levels.

Storms will develop from western Kansas to the south into Texas
this afternoon/evening ahead of this system. The storms will then
spread east, but expect the storms to dissipate well west of the
area. However, an outflow/pre-frontal trough will likely continue
to track east into the area Friday morning and across the area
Friday afternoon. As instability increases storms may develop
along this boundary as it tracks across the area. Instability
will not be off the charts but MLCAPE values should be in the
500-1000 J/kg range. With strong shear this should support a
severe risk with this activity as winds will be the main risk as a
line of storms will likely develop, though a hail risk may be
possible as storms form before developing into a line. These
storms are dependent on a boundary tracking into the area and
having enough lift for storm development along the boundary this
far north.

As the upper level low/surface low spread east a dry line will
spread east across Kansas Friday then into and across the area
Friday evening and night. The cold front should overrun the dry
line as it moves into the area and then sweeps across the area
Friday night. The question is how much affect does any convection
that develops earlier in the day have on the atmosphere ahead of
the front. If little early convection develops, then additional
storms should develop along the front Friday evening and spread
east through the overnight hours, pushing east of the area early
Saturday morning. With the upper level low spreading over the area
it`s possible some low top supercells develop across southeastern
Kansas but another line of storms should develop if enough
instability can be realized. There will be a severe risk, again
mainly winds from these storms Friday evening and night.

As the low tracks across the area showers and a few rumbles of
thunder will likely linger through the morning hours Saturday
ending from west to east Saturday afternoon.

An upper level shortwave trough will then sweep through the region
Sunday/Sunday night and bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with gusty winds this afternoon and into tonight. These
winds will be from the south or southeast.

A storm system was approaching the region from the west, but will
not arrive until Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
then be expected.

Until then however, most areas across southern Missouri should
remain dry with VFR conditions.

Safe Travels.




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