Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The upper level closed low that has been stuck up in the Corn Belt
will finally open up and dive southeast into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley today. Just enough lift, instability, and moisture will be
present for some sprinkle/light rain shower activity during the
heating of the day. Poor lapse rates in the 600-650 mb layer are
expected to cap off any thunderstorm potential. High temperatures
today should be very similar to those of Saturday.

Any remaining sprinkles/showers will then quickly dissipate by
early this evening with quiet weather expected overnight. Lows
will again range from the lower to middle 50s across the eastern
Ozarks, to around 60 degrees along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Monday and most of Tuesday then look dry as an upper level ridge
of high pressure slides overhead. We may add a degree or two to
temperatures, but persistence will generally be the way to go.

An increasingly diffluent southwesterly flow aloft will then begin
to overspread the Ozarks from later Tuesday into Wednesday.
Global models have trended slightly quicker in spreading
precipitation into western portions of Missouri during the later
Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame.

The better chance for precipitation still looks as if it will come
from Wednesday night into Thursday night as an amplified upper
level trough moves across the region. This synoptic scale setup
may support the potential for strong to severe storms somewhere
across the central United States during this time frame. This
threat will be much better understood as the middle of the week
approaches.

After the expected period of unsettled weather, cooler and drier
weather is anticipated by the end of the week. Long wave charts
indicate that we are going to slip back into a northwesterly flow
aloft at least into early next week. If this indeed occurs, near
to slightly below normal temperatures will persist.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will be light and variable, under a cumulus clouds
this afternoon. Eventually skies will clear tonight.

Light winds and ideal flying conditions will continue into Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer





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