


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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644 FXUS63 KSGF 271942 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon, decreasing by sunset. Rain rates of 1 to 3 inches an hour and an isolated strong downburst or two will be possible in the strongest cells. Additional morning and afternoon storms on Saturday. - Daily heat index values in the middle to upper 90s into early next week. - Daily shower and thunderstorm activity through next week, mainly isolated to scattered in nature. Greatest coverage will be Sunday night into Monday with a frontal passage. No all day washouts expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The area remained on the northwest side of a mid level high over the southeast US with a few passing mid level vorts. A very moist airmass has moved into the area with the latest RAP analysis showing PW values near a record 2.0in. An outflow boundary moved into the area this morning and with morning heating, scattered storms developed across the area. Wind shear is weak therefore slower storm motions and high PW values have led to very efficient rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Temps have cooled off into the 70s behind the outflow as a shield of light rain and clouds have moved in. This Afternoon through Tonight: Guidance suggests that the afternoon storms will continue, especially along and southeast of I-44 where the airmass is the most unstable. A few wind gusts to 40mph and isolated flooding will occur with the most concentrated cells however severe storms and widespread flooding is not expected. Guidance suggests that storm intensity and coverage will decrease towards sunset. Kept pops low for the first of the overnight hours however a low level jet looks to develop later in the night across Oklahoma and may nudge into southwest Missouri. HREF data suggests scattered showers and storms developing to our west and southwest and moving/developing into our area after 3am. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A near repeat could occur on Saturday as morning thunderstorms expand/develop with morning heating. Currently it appears that the area could be a little farther south than today therefore highest chances are along and south of Interstate 44. Pops may need to be increased if this area looks to still be the favored zone. May also have to reduce temps as well if clouds/precip look to linger longer into the day, however for now have kept highs in the middle 80s. Another low level jet Saturday night looks to cause more storm chances Sunday and again Monday with 50-70% chances now for both days. They dont look to be washouts however scattered showers and storms are a good bet. Localized heavy rainfall/isolated flooding and lightning will be the main concerns. Those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to keep an eye on the radar and forecasts and have alternate plans in case of thunderstorms. Ensembles show a slight pattern change Tuesday and Wednesday with a more northwesterly flow however 30 pops return for Thursday. High temps in the middle to upper 80s look likely however some areas could reach 90 where cloud cover is lowest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this afternoon, especially at SGF and BBG and kept a prevailing group for that. Otherwise should see a break this evening and overnight however did include a prob30 group at KJLN towards morning. Ceilings will drop into MVFR for a time during storms then VFR will prevail. Winds will be light out of the west to southwest however gusts to 30kts are possible in storms today. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield