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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1126 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A vigorous storm system impacting portions of the desert southwest
and southern high plains will begin an eastward track today. A veil
of high clouds associated with this system will blanket the region
but precipitation will remain to the south.

Highs today will be near to slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

An extended spell of relatively mild and quiet weather can be
expected through this weekend into early next week.

The storm system to our south will track across the gulf coast
states Friday. The associated precipitation shield will nudge
farther north across Arkansas as the primary shortwave trough
swings eastward. A few drops of rain cannot be ruled out near the
Arkansas border to the south and southeast of West Plains.
Otherwise the only impact will be the mid to high level cloud
cover.

A northwesterly flow aloft will become established heading into
the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the western U.S.
and an upper level trough deepens along the east coast.

The core of cold air will remain east of our region with no
intrusion of Arctic air anticipated through the middle of next
week.

The result will for the Ozarks and Osage Plains will be dry and
seasonably cool temperatures with readings be near to slightly
above normal for later January. Temperatures could rise well above
normal next week as the upper level ridge expands eastward.

Forecast Confidence: Given model consistency in projected trends the
confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Model guidance and current trends indicate that the SW MO area
will stay VFR though the period. Stratus to the northeast and
south of the area are forcast too stay in their respective areas,
as the primary storm system moves well south of the arae. Light
northeast winds will give way to a more westerly flow on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...JPK