Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 302030

330 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring since late
last night over the the southeast half of the cwfa ahead of a
modest shortwave axis over eastern KS and OK. With a lack of
strong forcing, convection should be largely diurnally driven and
is expected to weaken this evening. Have had some small/brief
stronger updrafts with at least one report of small hail earlier,
but the overall severe storm threat for wind/hail looks to be low
and localized.

A stronger shortwave will move into central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains Sunday with downstream shortwave 500mb height rises over
our area. Could see some isolated diurnal convection over the far
southeastern cwfa, but overall just expect a hot day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Strong storms are expected to develop from the upper Midwest south
into the Neb/KS Plains late Sunday and Sunday night as lift from the
approaching shortwave encounters increased moisture/instability.
The brunt of the lift from the shortwave will shift into the Midwest
Monday, but the weakening/trailing end of the convection (likely
driven by outflow) is expected to move into at least the nw or
northern portion of the cwfa by early Monday morning.

A nearly west to east sfc boundary is expected to set up over or
just north of the area Mon-Mon night with the potential for storm
redevelopment late Monday and Monday evening. Vertical shear with a
dip in the westerlies is expected to be more than adequate for
storm organization and have continued to highlight an elevated
severe storm potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook/HWO for this
time frame.

Convection will linger Tue, tied to where ever the sfc/low level
boundary ends up, and then the front is expected to lift back to
the north Wednesday as low pressure develops to our west with
upper level troughing over the western CONUS. Upper level ridging
building back up over the area should limit overall rain chances
Thu and Fri. Guidance diverges by Saturday, but in general rain
chances look to increase somewhat with a weakening of the upper
level ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The aviation forecast for the Ozarks region i includes slowly
increasing shower and storm coverage this afternoon into this
evening. periods of MVFR ceilings will occur, especially where
storms move near the areas terminals. With the scattered coverage,
elected to include only VCSH for the regions TAFS. Expectations
are for decreasing coverage of showers and storms this evening
with VFR conditions expected after sunset.

around sunrise and into early in the morning on Sunday, some
limitations to visibilities may occur at the KSGF and KBBG
terminals. This would be in response to any rainfall that fell
this afternoon/evening. Conditions would be limited to MVFR
visibilities though.




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