


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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993 FXUS63 KSGF 101900 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms (15-20% chance) across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri Friday afternoon. - Marginal risk (1 of 5) for wind gusts up to 60 mph Friday evening and night, roughly northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach line. - Rain chances (40-70%) continue on Saturday and Sunday. There is a Marginal (1 of 4) to Slight (2 of 4) risk for locally excessive rainfall if storms move over the same location repeatedly. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Scattered fair weather cumulus have developed across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon but have been vertically stunted by some dry air aloft. A lee low was located over the High Plains, gradually meandering east. Models show convection firing across the Plains this afternoon and potentially growing into an MCS. Basically all model guidance shows it diminishing by the time it reaches the western fringes of the forecast area tonight as it runs out of instability, so we are not expecting much if anything with this round. However, we will have to watch where any outflow boundaries end up as they will affect possible Friday convection. For Friday, an upper-level trough will gradually approach the region throughout the day. A plume of slightly greater moisture return may support scattered free convection across the eastern Ozarks and south-central MO during the afternoon, though a lack of strong forcing should limit their longevity or intensity. We currently have 15-20% PoPs for this area. Latest models tend to reignite convection along the aforementioned outflow boundary somewhere across northern Missouri or northeast Kansas by late morning and early afternoon. Strong destabilization may allow for rapid initiation into clusters or an eventual line segment capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The model trend has been slightly slower and slightly farther north than the previous forecast package, which would reduce the severe thunderstorm/wind risk for our forecast area. Timing wise, storm chances really start to increase after 10 PM and last into the overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the northwest portion of the CWA in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, roughly northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 An upper-level trough is progged to slow to a crawl over the northern Mississippi Valley this weekend, while a second embedded shortwave trough/vort max looks to stall across the southern Plains. Sufficient moisture content (PWATs of 1.6-2.0") and a persistent source of lift will allow for continued rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Repeated convection may open the door for localized flooding potential, particularly if multiple strong storms move over the same location. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined portions of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Details will likely be better resolved as we get in range of hi-res CAMs. Model variance increases more significantly Monday and beyond, though the synoptic pattern will leave the door open to daily rain chances as shortwave impulses transit the upper-level jet. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. A few mid- level cumulus have developed across southwest Missouri, but not enough to create a ceiling. Winds will remain between 5-10 kt out of the south through the forecast period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio