Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 272347
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 629 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Thunderstorms were ongoing mainly along and south of Highway 60
and east of Highway 65 late this afternoon ahead of a subtle
shortwave trough moving across northeast OK/northwest AR. Low
level convergence and winds are weak in this area. However the
airmass remains very unstable with dew points in the mid and upper
60s, and CAPE values averaging around 2500 j/kg. We got a report
of pea hail with one of the weaker looking storms, so suspect that
these slow moving cells, especially over Howell/Shannon/northwest
Oregon counties are dropping some small hail and heavy rain as they
drift slowly to the east-southeast.

Most of this activity is expected to diminish after sunset. Will
need to monitor latest HRRR output which generates another area of
heavy rain over southern Howell/Oregon counties later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Fairly quiet weather is occurring early/mid afternoon over the
cwfa. Cumulus field is popping in weak sfc convergence south of a
sfc front over the northern cwfa. High res guidance (throwing out
the NAM with poor handing of sfc dew points) develops some isold-
sct convection this afternoon in the area of best sfc moisture
convergence over far southern MO/se KS. By and large however, weak
shortwave ridging is helping to suppress widespread convection
despite some decent instability. Seeing some better updrafts over
northern AR, so will need to watch our area while we still have
the sfc heating/instability.

We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave
upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night
and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. We should
see better chances for diurnally driven showers/tstms Thursday
with deeper moisture expected (but weaker instability), but the
bulk of more widespread rain is expected to remain off to the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east
through the Plains Fri/Sat. Small scale ripples in the sw flow and
then eventually convergence along the approaching relatively
diffuse sfc trough will increase rain chances Fri/Sat. Progged
synoptic forcing is fairly weak, but overall better moisture and
the potential for more efficient rain producing convection will
give us better overall chances for precip. Two-three day rainfall
totals will again mount over time, but at least for now we are a
bit too far out for any hydro watch related headlines, but
guidance trends will need to be watched.

It still looks like a period of drier weather early next week as
sfc high pressure noses south from the Midwest. A weakness/upper
level cutoff is expected to meander nearby over the mid/lower MS
Vly which may kick off some spotty diurnally driven convection,
but overall the pattern does look drier through Wed/Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

With enhanced cumulus field and ongoing convection, will keep
vicinity storms at all TAF sites through around 4Z. Through the
night and into early Thursday will see winds pick back up from the
south ahead of a deepening lee side trough over the Plains. Will
bring vicinity storms back into the TAFS by mid to late morning,
with tempo storms by early afternoon as a stronger upper level
shortwave approaches the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry








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