Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240247
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

We have lower PoPs overnight generally along and east of the
Highway 65 corridor while delaying the onset of higher PoPs for a
few hours out west. The main show when it comes to showers and
thunderstorms may be the eventual evolution of a line of storms
currently across northwestern Kansas. This activity is expected to
reach west-central Missouri around sunrise. We may also see
additional isolated to scattered activity develop out ahead of
this line across the remainder of western Missouri...again closer
to sunrise. We then look on track for some widespread and
beneficial rainfall during the day on Thursday.

Updates have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert
Southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
as the warm front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind
the warm front, chances will be relatively low during the day
Saturday. MCS development looks possible Saturday night across
northeastern Kansas and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of
that complex possibly affecting the northern portions of the
forecast area early Sunday. This potential will depend heavily on
the eventual position of the warm front, which remains somewhat
problematic amongst the medium range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The main concern overnight will be low level wind shear as a
strong low level jet stream shifts over the region. Brisk and
gusty southeast winds are also expected around Springfield due to
local terrain effects. A storm system will then bring numerous
showers to the area on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms also
expected. At this time, it looks like the greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will occur from later in the morning
into the afternoon. MVFR conditions can be expected beneath any
storms. Brisk and gusty south to southwest winds will persist for
most of Thursday before shifting to the west and northwest behind
a passing cold front late in the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






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