Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261141
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG airports: Moisture is moving north into the
region ahead of a cold front. Initially vfr conditions will lower
into the mvfr cat as moisture deepens early in the taf period. The
front will only make slow eastward progress, reaching KJLN late in
the taf period. SREF guidance and progged soundings indicate a
good chance for IFR cat ceilings along with some drizzle or light
rain, mostly after 27/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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