Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 022028
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

This period will be characterized by a building 500mb ridge from
Texas into the Ozarks. The clouds that have been around the area the
past several days should become less numerous as heights build.
However, models do continue to show residual moisture around the
area tonight so still expect some clouds.

With the building ridge, any convection looks to remain north and
west of the area through the day tomorrow with a complex likely to
develop later Wednesday afternoon over the Plains.

850mb temperatures warm 4 degrees Celsius over the next 24 hours and
along with more sunshine will allow temperatures to begin an upward
trend closer to early June normals by Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Biggest question in this time frame is position of the upper level
ridge and handling of potential MCS`s rolling out the the Central
Plains towards the area, so overall low confidence in the details of
the forecast. First such MCS could potentially affect the far
northwestern areas of the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. If these do make it into the region there could be
a marginal risk of severe weather. After that ridge holds in place
with forecast area on the southern periphery of any convective
activity at least through Friday. By this weekend and into early
next week models indicate a breakdown of the ridge which would lead
to better convective chances and thus expecting a little more
unsettled weather this weekend into early next week. Will have to
monitor for severe weather potential with any of these complexes
dropping out of the Plains.

Temperatures and humidities will be on the upswing as readings
become more summer like with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Visible metsat data and observations
indicate MVFR ceilings are trying to thin out and expect sct-bkn
clouds with vfr ocnl mvfr cat conditions over the next few hours.
Higher clouds are expected to be more extensive at times, but
expect that at least some mvfr fog may be possible toward 09z-10z
with some low level nighttime cooling and moist sfc conditions.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA






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