Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292343

643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We continue to see a gradual weakening trend with scattered
convection across most of our forecast area with loss of peak heating and
weak to nil surface convergence. Stronger cluster of storms over
northeast Arkansas will be clipping Oregon County and maybe
southeast Shannon County over the next few hours. So I think the
precipitation probability trend of higher east/lower west still
works for this evening.

Looking upstream...seeing a bit of an uptick in convection over
eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma possibly aided by shortwave
disturbance moving northward from the Red River Valley. Also...
a fairly decent shortwave over north central Colorado is making
steady east-southeast progress and could kick off some storms over
our western counties by around 10z (5 AM) in the vicinity of the
weak front which should end up over our nw counties Sat. Morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Following current radar trends...will keep vicinity showers around
Joplin and Branson for the first couple of hours. Otherwise expect
a bit of a break in precip near the airports until early Saturday
morning. An upper level disturbance over north central Colorado
this evening will drop southeast across northern Kansas and likely
spark a few showers and storms near the front across eastern KS.

For the time being...will continue VFR through the forecast period.




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