Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 230403
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s. This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night. This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.
Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area. Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees. Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday. This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through. Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.
That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area. The
post-frontal air mass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.
The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist air mass will build
in. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.
Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area. While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined. The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.