Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 071111
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
An incredible airmass was positioned across a large majority of
the North American continent. Temperatures over the Ozarks had
fallen into the single digits this morning. With a deep snow pack
south of Interstate 44, some locations may fall below zero prior to
Observations up across the northern Plains were measuring
temperatures between -20 and -30. This is just amazingly cold,
especially for the first week of December.
More air from the Arctic Circle will spill into Canada and the
lower 48 over the next few days. Water Vapor over the North Pole
was depicting a strong cross polar trajectory, directed into
central and western Canada. So it may be a few days before we warm
up and melt the existing southern Missouri snow pack.
Before we discuss weather for the upcoming work week, lets go over
some minor snow and freezing drizzle chances for tonight into
A speed max was making landfall over the California coast this
morning, which will quickly shift into the Ozarks Region late
tonight into Sunday. This feature will provide sufficient lift for
some light snow and freezing drizzle.
Not a whole lot of moisture will be available to this system,
however, there should be enough for light precip.
By Sunday morning, all of the models suggest that a dry slot will
spread across the southern half of Missouri. This will eliminate
cloud ice for snow. However, areas of freezing drizzle can not be
ruled out. We don`t think this freezing drizzle will be too much
of a concern. Although we can not rule out some patchy ice on
roadways. Any snow that falls tonight will add little to no
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Another shot of unusually cold air will surge into southern Missouri
on Monday, likely causing overnight lows early Tuesday morning to
fall below zero again in some spots with deep snow pack.
Northwest flow will persist through Thursday allowing a near
continuous pipeline of Arctic into the Ozarks. It`s going to stay
cold all week, with highs in the 20s, and lows in the single
digits to lower teens all week.
There could be a chance for some precipitation by next weekend, as
models have been signaling the approach of another wave. Given the
fast dynamic flow, we`ll likely see some major changes in model
data this far out.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 504 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at most aerodromes throughout the day.
Ceilings will develop this afternoon and gradually lower the during
the evening hours.
Light snow will be scattered in nature and have handled MVFR
visibilities with PROB30 groups. By 09z...will get enough
moistening of the lower layers to give us MVFR ceilings through
the remainder of the forecast period.
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-097-