Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 092034
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)

A Pacific front will approach extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks late tonight, causing wind speeds to increase out
of the south. We think gusts could exceed 30 mph at times,
particularly in the Osage Plains areas. At this time we did not
issue a Wind Advisory, however, we did consider it.

The other item to monitor for tonight will be moisture surge and
the development of drizzle. Temperatures are expected to remain
well above freezing tonight, so there are no concerns for freezing
drizzle. As a matter of fact, overnight lows will remain in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. So we don`t expect much of a cool down
tonight compared to what temperatures are currently running.

A big warm up is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night as
readings in the 50s are expected Tuesday. For Wednesday we could
see upper 60s in some areas. Given the amount of moisture
transporting back into southern Missouri, a rouge sprinkle or
shower is not out of the question. Most locations will remain dry
through Wednesday night. Overnight lows Wednesday night will range
from the upper 30s to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)

We are currently monitoring a closed off storm system over the
Pacific Ocean. The closed off structure of this upper low has
caused problems in model data being able to handle the timing and
pressure structure evolution as it shifts east into the Desert
Southwest.

Because of these reasons, we still think big changes are coming in
future model runs. Therefore we have to be careful about settling
on one solution or forecast, and stay vigilant that there are
still a wide range of possibilities regarding precipitation type
and impacts. The forecast will become better fine tuned as we
progress in time.

Our best consensus forecast this afternoon suggests that an Arctic
front will surge across southern Missouri on Thursday. As a Gulf
airmass overruns this feature late Thursday night into Friday
morning, freezing rain chances will increase as surface
temperatures are expected to range from the middle 20s to lower
30s.

Another wrinkle in the forecast regards upright instability
present within the Ozarks airmass thursday night through Friday.
Freezing rain in some of our past events was limited due to
upright instability causing problems with precipitation type.

Our best consensus forecast also suggests that temperatures will
warm above freezing Friday evening, and remain above freezing
through the rest of the weekend. As a matter of fact, we could
see temperatures in the 50s on Sunday. Therefore, any freezing
rain that occurs Friday would have good chances of melting for the
rest of the weekend.

Areas northwest of Springfield (west central Missouri) could have
a longer duration of freezing rain since temperatures could stay
at or below freezing into Saturday morning.

We inserted a limited mention of flooding as the GFS and ECMWF shows
near continuous rain through the weekend, with some hefty storm
total QPF amounts. The flood risk area will run along and south of a
line from Joplin to Lake of the Ozarks.

We want to reiterate that changes in model data are expected
regarding this weekend`s storm system. Confidence in any one
solution is low given the model errors that occur with closed off
upper lows in the Pacific, that are not sampled by ROABS. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect MVFR ceilings tonight with drizzle developing.

Moisture return will occur tonight causing drizzle and maybe a
shower or two to develop. Ceilings will also drop into the MVFR
category for several hours.

We also could experience some low level wind shear as a 50 knot
low level jet develops at around 2000 feet above sea level.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer



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