Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 151202
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)
A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.
This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.
Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.
Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.
Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.
By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the
area during the 20z-01z time frame. VFR conditions will occur ahead
of the front with veering winds. Winds may be moderately gusty at
times. Maintained the chances for shra/tsra near and just behind
the front, but chances for a prolonged reduction in visibility with
heavier showers will be short lived at best. Ceilings will lower
behind the front late in the taf period with low level cooling and
remaining moisture. SREF pretty close to 50-50 on ifr cigs so, for
now, went low end mvfr and will watch fcst and observed trends.