Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





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