Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 250110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
810 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Convection continues to weaken across the eastern Ozarks as
activity runs east of the instability axis. The Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has already been cancelled for most of the area
will be canceled for the remainder of south central Missouri once
convection ends. There will be brief break in the weather tonight
before more active weather returns Wednesday.

Near term forecast has been updated to reflect precipitation and
sky cover trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern.

Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress
east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern
cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming,
mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of
low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over
the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the
boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among
others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z
close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be
a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken
line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this
afternoon and early this evening.

ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a
narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than
adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3
km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to
develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level
moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail
given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a
possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero),
again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low
level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough.

The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly
move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more
limited instability.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A second shortwave, more positively tilted,  will make it`s way
through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected.
Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive
rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa.

Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually
coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of
southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main
storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail
and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern
MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training
storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts
hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO
where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at
a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still
ironing out the details.

Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper
level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime
temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small
scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some
light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend
develops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 8 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions the remainder of tonight with
more active weather returning Wednesday. Surface winds will
become light and variable overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon
bringing areas of MVFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
     FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-094>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer






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