Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)

Mild and quiet conditions were observed over the region today. A
storm system was approaches from the west, and will begin to bring
us shower and thunderstorm chances tonight and into Wednesday.
Stormy conditions could persist into Thursday as well as unstable
air remains over portions of southern Missouri.

A risk for severe weather will begin Wednesday afternoon as a warm
front surges into the region. Moisture and instability will
spread within a highly sheared airmass, increasing the risk for
organized thunderstorms.

We will be mentioning all modes of severe weather possible on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, due to the shear and cape
combination. Storms located on the density gradient (warm front)
will need to be closely monitored for a tornado risk. Also,
southeast surface winds will provide a decent low level shear
structure for streamwise vorticity ingestion into updrafts.

For Thursday, the models all agree that a severe risk will
continue for the eastern Ozarks, or essentially areas east of
Highway 65. We will also mention all modes possible for Thursday.

Storms are expected to exit the area late Thursday evening.
Overnight lows on Thursday night will cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)

Short wave ridging will track over the nation`s midsection on
Friday as another storm system approaches from the west. This
feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms late
Saturday and into Sunday.

The GFS has the upper low on this system lagging behind
considerably, so showers will be possible through Monday.

The GFS is also hinting toward a pattern change with deep
northwest flow evolving across the central United States. This
would bring a cold Canadian airmass into the area toward the
middle and latter part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Ceilings will be low end MVFR with some IFR possible this morning.
Will mention this IFR potential through 14z this morning. Patchy
fog will also be possible. Most of today will be MVFR ceilings
with a few breaks in the cloud deck possible by this afternoon. A
warm front will move in tonight with convection developing and
moving into the area by the end of the TAF period. Will mention
this potential with a PROB30 group. Winds will be easterly today
then becoming southeasterly and gusty by tonight. Wind gusts could
approach 20 to 25 knots possible tonight.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.