Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162043
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

A dryline was pushing across southwest Missouri this afternoon
with a few showers affecting some areas to the east. Eventually
this rain will come to an end completely by this evening, setting
the stage for a mostly dry and mild forecast.

Look for overnight lows to fall into the 30s tonight, under mostly
cloudy skies and west southwest breezes.

For Tuesday temperatures will be steady in the 40s as westerly
winds continue. No precipitation chances are expected tonight or
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

The area remains under cyclonic flow through most of the seven day
forecast. That will bring plenty of cloud cover during several
periods, however, precipitation chances for the most part are low.

For Wednesday a long wave trough will approach from the west.
Forcing and lift with this feature will occur to the south and
east of the Ozarks. Therefore we think an area of widespread
precipitation will occur over Arkansas and shift into the middle
Mississippi River Valley, keeping much of the Ozarks dry. Temps on
Wednesday will warm into the 50s.

The upper low will shear off to the north, not having much impact
with the sensible weather for Thursday and Friday. More energy
will move over the West Coast and Desert Southwest this weekend.
Eventually this energy will approach the Ozarks and potentially
give us a couple rounds of showers. Our best chances for rain will
be late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

An upper level low pressure will continue to bring flight category
restrictions to southern Missouri through Tuesday morning. IFR
conditions are generally expected around Springfield and Branson,
however a period of MVFR will be possible from late this afternoon
into this evening. Joplin will mainly see MVFR into this evening
before IFR develops later tonight.

There will also be scattered rain showers this afternoon with a
slight chance for a thunderstorm around Branson and Springfield.
We felt that the probability for a thunderstorm was too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

Surface winds will remain brisk out of the south to southwest this
afternoon before veering around to the west tonight and becoming
lighter.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann



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