Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0205 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

A cold front has made it almost all the way through the region
except for the southeast corner of the cwfa. Areas of light to
moderate post frontal rainfall will continue tonight into Saturday
with somewhat higher amounts closer to the front over the southern
cwfa. Areal flood warnings cover the expected or ongoing low water
crossing flooding. Will keep the FF Watch going, but wouldn`t be
surprised if part of it is cancelled early in a piecemeal fashion
from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning with the focus of
heavier rain gradually shifting south of the area.

Raw/chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday.
Temperatures well back behind the front have stabilized with the
sfc freezing line just west and nw of the cwfa. Will continue to
mention the chance of a small ice accumulation on elevated
surfaces over the far nw cwfa based on progged temperatures
dropping just a bit more. Used a mix of 3hr consensus mos and nam
guidance for temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0205 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

An upper level low over the Great Basin/western CONUS is progged
to finally kick east into the central Plains Mon finally shifting
the last of the precip off to the east Monday night with a
frontal passage. Sfc high pressure will move through cwfa late Wed
and Thu. Despite the passage of an upper level shortwave Thu a dry
air mass will greatly limit any rain chances. South winds will
increase Fri with a modest warming trend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

IFR Conditions are expected through much of the 06z forecast.
Another wave of precipitation is working northeast towards
southeast Kansas and southwest MO, and should move into the area
overnight. Rain will likely continue through a good portion of the
daylight hours on Saturday. Temperatures should remain warm enough
at the TAF sites for all rain and not freezing rain.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ068>071-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ097-101.



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