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000
FXUS63 KSGF 012030
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

Very complex forecast and upcoming Winter weather situation to
unfold over the next 24 to 36 hours. We currently have an Arctic
cold front situated across the forecast area with mid to upper 20s
temepratures over parts of central Missouri and low to mid 50s
temperatures in the southern part of the state. The front is
beginning to stall out as upper level southwesterly flow was
developing in advance of an upper level shortwave along the
California coast.

The focus with this forecast will be with the transition between
precipitation types as the depth of the Arctic air mass increases
over the area, along with snow and ice accumulation amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

Light precipitation is expected to begin this evening as moisture
over runs the Arctic cold front. The precipitation will initially
begin as rain over areas where temperatures are above freezing and
freezing rain where temperatures are below freezing which will
initially be confined to areas over central Missouri into parts of
southeast Kansas. As the evening transitions into the overnight
hours...the Arctic air mass will continue to slide southward into
the CWA. With the Arctic air mass being initially shallow, rain is
expected to transition to freezing rain. Further north over
central Missouri, the freezing rain will transition to sleet as
temperatures nose dive into the teens. Precipitation will also
begin to increase in intensity during the overnight hours.

The southern half of the CWA will have the potential of convection
from late tonight through Sunday with a couple hundred j/kg of
MUCAPE being indicated by forecast models. This could greatly
enhance precipitation totals where any thunder is present. It will
also cause some of the freezing rain to mix with or transition to
sleet. Due to this mixture or transition of precipitation types
along with a slightly deeper colder air mass moving in, we are
forecasting lesser amounts of freezing rain, with a greater chance
of sleet.

This transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow will continue
into Sunday from northwest to southeast and should be all snow by
late Sunday night across the area.

Highest snow and sleet totals will occur in an area north and east
of a line from Osceola to Springfield to Houston to Salem where 4
to 6 inches will be possible. About 1 to 3 inches will be possible
south and west of this line.

Highest ice totals will be over south central Missouri where
around a third of an inch of ice will be possible. A glazing will
be possible over parts of central Missouri to around a tenth of an
inch along the interstate 44 corridor.

Wintry accumulations should come to an end by 6 am Monday.

In addition to the Wintry precipitation, north winds of 10 to 20
mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible throughout the
event which could have an impact with the ice accumulations
expected over south central Missouri, as well as blowing and
drifting of snow in areas which have transitioned over to all
snow. Wind chills during the event will dip into the teens below zero.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

The Arctic air mass will the move into the region on Monday with
highs only expected to reach the teens and 20s and lows in the
single digits to teens Monday night. Wind chills Monday morning
will be in the teens to around 20 degrees below zero.

West to northwest flow aloft throughout next week with a series of
weaker shortwaves moving through the central U.S. Not expecting
much in the way of QPF with the best precipitation chances being
confined to areas along the Gulf coast. There will be a warming
trend throughout the week after the Arctic high pushes to the east
of the region with temperatures warming back into the 50s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

Complex weather scenario shaping up for the TAF sites this
forecast period. Surface cold front is situated just north of the
I-44 corridor at this time. The clear slot that had developed out
ahead of the front earlier has been gradually filling in with
clouds throughout the morning. Another band of MVFR ceilings was
also making its way northward out of Arkansas as well.

Front will gradually push through the region this afternoon and
stall out over northern Arkansas tonight. As the upper level
system makes its way eastward...precipitation in the form of -RA/FZRA
will begin between 00-03z. As precip saturates the lower
layers...IFR ceilings will gradually dominate through the
remainder of the forecast period.

As the cold air column deepens overnight...expect a transition to
more PL in the 09z time frame for KSGF/KJLN with a transition
towards -SNPL in the 13-15z time frame. KBBG will remain in FZRA
longer...transitioning to a -FZRAIP mix around 02/15z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

A very cold airmass will move over the Ozarks region this weekend
and settle over the area Monday and Tuesday. There is the
possibility that record lows will occur on Monday and again
Tuesday. Below are the records for March 3rd and 4th for locations
across the Ozarks.

Record Lows           March 3             March 4
                      Record              Record

Springfield           -4 1943             -2 2002

Joplin                 0 2002              0 2002

Vichy/Rolla            2 2002             -4 2002

West Plains            7 2002              3 2002

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Hatch