Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 101914
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Cyclonic northwest flow aloft continues across the area and
appears to continue through early next week. Shortwave energy was
pushing through the area today and has brought scattered
showers/thunderstorms to the CWA, mainly across the eastern half
of the area. PW values have increased over the past 24 hours with
over 1.5" throughout the area and has led to some pretty good
rainfall rates with the showers convection today.

With the overall pattern not changing much through early next
week, we are expecting a series of upper level shortwaves to
interact with the increasing moisture content over the area for
periodic showers and thunderstorms with good rainfall rates. The
northwest flow, cloud cover and rain chances will keep
temperatures below normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Ongoing convection will continue to slide east and out of the area
by this evening. Additional convection in association with the
next shortwave will begin moving into the western CWA this evening
and continuing into Friday across the area. The heaviest rain
looks like it will affect the southwest CWA and down into
Oklahoma. There is currently a marginal risk of severe storms
across the western CWA as the storms move in from the west later
this evening. This will mainly be sub-severe wind gusts and small
hail.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

As mentioned above, the pattern will likely not change much into
early next week with several waves of energy moving through the
region, each producing convection with the potential of heavy
rain. As with this initial disturbance, future shortwaves will
bring the highest qpf to the southwestern half of the CWA where
3-4 inches of rain will be possible through early next week. QPF
amounts will taper off significantly across the northeast portion
of the CWA. Will need to monitor the rainfall amounts with these
features for the potential of flooding later in the weekend, but
current amounts of QPF are spread out over several days and
shouldn`t cause any widespread flooding. If the axis of heaviest
precipitation begins to shift northeast however, then we might
have to ramp up the flooding potential.

At this point, it looks like Tuesday might provide the area with
the best chance at a rain free day before we get back into the
parade of shower/thunderstorm chances by mid to late week.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally affect areas
from SGF down to BBG and east this afternoon. Therefore have kept
VCTS for those sites however did leave out JLN for now. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail. Most showers and
storms will diminish after 00z. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will then move into the area after 06Z and last
through the early morning hours Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield



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