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000
FXUS63 KSGF 262032
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Moderately gusty southwest winds have resulted in hot temperatures
over the region with mid afternoon readings at airport/fire wx/and
many ag sites in the mid and upper 90s. The exception is somewhat
cooler KUNO/West Plains in south central MO and in the far
northern cwfa where cloud cover has been more abundant. Dew
points have mixed out in many locations (but not quite all...the
exception some forested and cloud covered areas). In general the
warmest heat index values are in the 100-105 deg F range as of 2
pm.

Cloud cover associated with an MCV will skirt at least the northern
cwfa into early evening along with some some sprinkles/light
showers along the southern edge of more widespread precip.

A sfc trough/cold front will move south through the area late
tonight and Sunday morning as a shortwave moves south into the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Will continue to carry some low
pops, but weak convergence along the boundary and a lack of deep
moisture will make widespread and/or prolonged precip hard to come
by this far south. Could use the rain.

Cooler air will lag the wind shift a bit on Sunday, but overall it
should be at least somewhat cooler in most areas. The far southern
cwfa will still see some heat index values in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A persistent blocking pattern over much of NOAM and the north
Pacific with keep a high latitude upper level cyclonic circulation in
place over/near southern Hudson Bay with an upper trough extending
south into the eastern CONUS. As a result, much cooler than normal
temperatures are expected over the region for the upcoming work
week. Could see some light precip by Thu and Fri as subtle
shortwaves/disturbances move southeast through the Plains. Will
carry some low pops produced by a model consensus, but it looks
like better precip chances will stay more w-sw of the region where
better moisture from the the western Gulf of Mexico will reside.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Brisk and gusty southwesterly surface winds will persist for the
remainder of this afternoon along with VFR conditions. Those winds
will diminish slightly this evening with low level wind shear
developing by late evening as a low level jet stream strengthens
over the region. There are then some indications that isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms may develop late tonight across
central and portions of southern Missouri along the southern
extent of that low level jet. While confidence is low in this
scenario, we felt it was prudent to include a PROB30 group at
Springfield and Joplin. A passing cold front will then shift winds
to the west and then northwest Sunday morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop on that front across far
southern Missouri or northern Arkansas by mid afternoon on
Sunday. We have therefore included a PROB30 group at Branson later
Sunday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>070-
     077>081-088-089-093.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann