Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 162349
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few left over high clouds across SC MO were left behind a
departing MCV Across Northeast Arkansas. Subsidence behind this
feature has left a mostly clear sky for the rest of the area. Temps
and dewpoints have been back on the rise, especially across the
western half of the area where mesoscale analysis shows an
instability gradient setting up. The rest of the afternoon and
evening will be dry.

Late this evening, all eyes will be pointed to the Northwest, namely
the Kansas City area as a complex of storms forms. This complex
looks to follow corfidi vectors southeast into northern portions of
the area after 10pm. There is some uncertainty in exact timing as
some models are slower, some faster. Therefore will need to watch
trends this evening. The northern half or so of the area will see a
chance for some severe wind gusts and perhaps large hail as the
system drops down. The instability gradient that is set up may come
into play this evening as storms ride that gradient. Additionally,
given high moisture content and some potential for training
(especially if storms backbuild), a limited flash flood risk is
possible. Storms will likely exit the area tomorrow morning.

The rest of Saturday looks, in a word, uncomfortable. Late morning
and afternoon clearing will allow strong heating to take place.
Furthermore, moisture pooling ahead of an incoming front will
allow dew points to reach the middle to perhaps upper 70s across
the northern half of the area as well as SE Kansas. The Heat
Advisory has been expanded to include all of SE Kansas, Western
Missouri and into the Lake of the Ozarks region where max heat
indicies near 105 will be common.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A strong cold front will approach from the north Saturday evening
and storms should fire north of the area and ooze south. With
strong to extreme instability and adequate wind shear, severe
storms looks like a good bet and would not be surprised to see
severe probs increased in future outlooks/discussions. Saturday
evening and overnight will feature the highest chances for these
severe storms. These storms may linger into Sunday, especially
along the Missouri-Arkansas border.

A period of relatively quiet and cooler weather will occur Sunday
through early next week as northwest flow commences. Next decent
chance of rain will occur by mid to late next week as a system
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Will monitor storms now over eastern Neb that
will move southeast into Missouri tonight. Guidance varies, but it
looks like after 06z-12z before storms affect central Missouri.
Will keep vcts at KSGF late tonight. Low level winds support a
marginal mention of low level wind shear for all taf sites 10z-
14z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>057-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-101.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA



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