Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KSGF 111553
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
953 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FORECAST UPDATE...

Issued at 943 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Surface cold front and impressive temp gradient is running faster
than even the his res models like the HRRR. Temps are dropping
about 15-20 degrees in 15min behind the front. Fort Scott Kansas
is already reporting freezing drizzle while its near 60 out east.
Looking at top down analysis, locations immediately behind the
front lose cloud ice quickly therefore we are more concerned that
this may end up being a freezing drizzle event for this afternoon
and evening for locations behind the front. The latest RAP and NAM
also support this trend with very little qpf behind the front. Have
adjusted pops and temps to try to reflect the trend in a faster
movement with the front. Later this evening as another surface low
develops to our southeast, additional precip may form on the
backside and move up across the eastern ozarks. Depending on how
much cloud ice is present, some light sleet and snow will be
possible out there.


The other notable feature are wind gusts as a strong area of low
pressure moves to our north. Have increased winds behind the front
to around 40-45mph with some sustained to near 30mph this evening.
Will look at a more data however a Wind Advisory may be needed for
the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Mild weather was ongoing this morning over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. These conditions will abruptly
change today as a powerful Arctic airmass surges across the
region.

Rain followed by small amounts of freezing rain, freezing drizzle,
snow, and sleet are expected as temperatures fall well below
freezing. Any moisture on road surfaces could flash freeze,
creating dangerous travel across the Ozarks.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for the entire area.
While freezing rain or drizzle amounts are expected to range from
a trace to just a few hundredths of an inch, a thin sheet of ice
on roads will create impact.

The precipitation will have exited east of the region by midnight
tonight, therefore the Advisory is set to expire at midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Much colder weather is on tap for the weekend as high temperatures
struggle to warm out of the 20s and 30s Friday through Sunday. Dry
weather is expected with overnight lows falling into the single
digits and teens. The coldest night will be Friday night with wind
chill values falling from zero to -5 degrees.

Another cold front approaches on Monday, which could bring a quick
round of light snow. Models have been very inconsistent with this
signal. This front will definitely bring another blast of cold air
to the Ozarks.

A pattern change finally occurs during the middle of next week as
westerlies become more zonal and height rises occur. This should
bring temperatures back into the 40s and maybe the 50s toward
week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

A cold front is currently approaching the area from the west.
Ahead of the front gusty southerly winds and scattered light rain
showers are occurring. The front will move through the area later
this morning into early this afternoon switching the winds to the
northwest, and remain quite gusty picking up some behind the
front.

Temperatures will quickly fall into the upper 20s behind the front
this afternoon. Light rain or drizzle will also occur behind the
front while temperatures fall below freezing resulting in a period
of light freezing rain or drizzle occurring this afternoon. A
glaze to a few hundredths of an inch of ice. There could be a
brief period of sleet or snow behind the front but amounts will be
light.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.