Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211925
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR conditions exist across the
region at this time with isolated IFR here and there. Surface cold
front extends from about KFNB-KICT-KWDG at this hour. Most of the
rainfall activity is located from northeastern OK into southwestern MO.

Expect MVFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon hours
until the front pushes through between 00-02z. Kept VCTS in for
convective activity just ahead of the front. Could occasionally
see isolated IFR ceilings with some of the convective
activity...but probability is not high enough to include in the
TAFS.

Once the front passes...conditions should improve to VFR with a
mid layer cloud deck. Expect clearing skies after 06z with light
northwest winds through the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...Gaede






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