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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A warm and windy afternoon is underway today across the region, as
high pressure pushes east across the Great Lakes, and low pressure
deepens across the High Plains.  A few light radar echos have been
ongoing all day across central Missouri, associated with a weak
shortwave that has tried--unsuccessfully--to top the larger scale
upper level ridge in place across the region.  Any remaining threat
of sprinkles should dwindle to zero shortly, if not already.

A mid level shortwave trough, currently crossing the Continental
Divide, will continue east toward the forecast area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will begin to
move into the western portions of the CWA during the predawn hours
tomorrow morning, and will likely continue in a scattered fashion
across the CWA during the day tomorrow, before a cold front sweeps
across the area tomorrow afternoon and brings precipitation chances
to an end.  Model guidance has trended a bit slower with the frontal
passage tomorrow, which could give us enough opportunity to
sufficiently destabilize during the afternoon hours to result in the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the region.  Even
then, however, widespread cloud cover and precipitation ahead of
this system will still considerably limit destabilization. If we can
get modest CAPE to develop, shear values will be strong enough to
result in a few strong to severe storms, with the best relative
chance over south central MO.  Marginally severe hail and gusty
winds would be the expected threats with any strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Temperatures tomorrow night will drop into the 40s behind the cold
front, which will stall out across southern Arkansas on Friday.
Friday looks to be a generally pleasant day, with warm and dry
conditions.

That front will then begin to return to the region as a warm front
on Saturday as a deep western trough moves east across the Desert Southwest.
A few isolated thunderstorms may be possible Saturday as the warm
front passes, but with a strong EML building in behind the warm
front, chances will be relatively low during the day Saturday.  MCS
development looks possible Saturday night across northeastern Kansas
and/or southeastern Nebraska, with remnants of that complex possibly
affecting the northern portions of the forecast area early Sunday.
This potential will depend heavily on the eventual position of the
warm front, which remains somewhat problematic amongst the medium
range guidance suite.

Sunday and Monday continue to look interesting, as the
aforementioned western trough ejects east across the southern
Rockies and cuts off into a closed low somewhere over the Great
Plains.  Guidance has trended slower/further west over the last
12-24 hours with the mid level low and associated surface features,
and while confidence is high that a fairly widespread severe
weather event will occur Sunday and Monday somewhere across the central
U.S., exact timing and location of the threat area depends on
details that still need to be refined over the coming days.  This
will certainly be something to watch going into the weekend.

Much cooler air is then expected to filter into the area for the
middle portion of next week, as the large upper low remains in
control across the eastern half of the country.  Guidance continues
to hint that temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may be cold enough
to result in a few snow flakes mixing in with rain showers, as well
the possibility for a frost or even freeze next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell