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000
FXUS63 KSGF 040850
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Currently, the cold front has pushed through the entire MO Ozarks
region, however temperatures were at or above freezing across the
entire area as of 2 AM with the freezing line just entering our
northwest CWA. Temperatures were still in the low 40s over south
central MO. Behind the freezing line though, temperatures dropoff
rather quickly with readings in the low to mid 20s near Kansas
City as of 2 AM. Rain showers are continuing, mainly over the
eastern Ozarks region, with a few showers over central MO.

Region wide, precipitation shield stretched from west Texas into
the OH valley with a few breaks in coverage, in association with a
very large and strong upper level jet streak. This feature will be
the main focus for developing Winter Precipitation across the area
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Upper level jet is expected to strengthen today as upper level
energy begins to lift northeast out of southwestern low and
northern stream energy shifts southeast towards the area with the
mean trough. This jet streak, already pretty strong with over 170
kts at 300 mb is forecast to strengthen to over 200 kts over the
Great Lakes region later today. The MO Ozarks will be in a
favorable right entrance region of this jet for very strong
lifting, especially along and southeast of the I-44 corridor from
mid morning through the afternoon. In addition, there will be some
decent frontogenetic forcing over these same locations during the
day today. Surface temperatures will continue to drop during the
remainder of the overnight and for most locations during the day
today. Have gone with a non-diurnal temperature trend for this
reason. Precipitation will likely begin as rain during the
remainder of the overnight, and will transition to all Winter
precipitation types throughout the course of the morning from
northwest to southeast. Precipitation will likely be scattered and
light in nature until around mid morning when the jet dynamics
begin to increase and the precipitation will expand in coverage
and intensity fairly quickly.

Fly in ointment #1 in limiting snow amounts - Drier air will be working
into the lower levels with the very cold air mass today from the
northwest and there will be a sharp cut-off in snow amounts
because of this with highest totals to the southeast and least
amounts in the northwest.

Fly in ointment #2 in limiting snow amounts - As discussed the past
several days and even with the last event, the higher sun angle
this time of year does cut back on snow amounts for daytime snow
events.

Fly in ointment #3 in limiting snow amounts - There will be mixed
precipitation types today prior to midday which will limit the
amount of time for all snow.

That being said, the dynamics will still be able to produce a
decent snowfall across our southeast counties. Model guidance has
come into better agreement with the 00z runs and is pretty much in
line with what we have been thinking over the past couple of days.
Thus, have not had to adjust much in the way of snow/ice totals.

Will keep headlines as is with the southeast CWA highlighted with
4 to 6 inches of snow on top of around 0.03 to 0.12 in. of ice
accretion...the combination of which will keep them in the Winter
storm warning. Lesser amounts are expected as you head northwest
with just a glaze to 0.02 in. of ice and 2 to 4 inches of snow
over the I-44 corridor and a trace to 1.5 inches of snow to the
northwest CWA.

Precipitation is expected to change over to all snow by the
afternoon as the warmer air aloft cools below freezing. Drier air
will work in from the northwest during the afternoon and snow
should end from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and
evening hours, with just a little bit of light snow left in the
far southeast CWA in the late evening and overnight.

Much colder air will work into the area today and tonight with
lows expected in the single digits to teens and wind chills in the
single digits above and below zero.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

The cold air will linger into Thursday and Thursday night with
highs struggling to reach freezing and more bone chilling lows
Thursday night.

Good news is in the future however if you like warmer weather and
want to say goodbye to the snow. A pattern change will be underway
by late in the week into next week with the Polar jet shifting
northward. We should see a nice warmup with highs returning to the
50s by this weekend and possibly the 60s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will push
through the area with lowering ceilings and increasing chances for
gradually transitioning to a wintry mix then snow as lift
increases over the area. A wide variety of flight conditions are
in place now, but in general we will see lowering ceilings and
visibility as precip coverage increases over the next few hours.
The eventual transition to snow will be somewhat slow with some
warm air aloft hanging on, but should see at least a brief period
of moderate-heavy snow, particularly at KBBG. Flight conditions
improve late in the taf period from nw to se as the bulk of
heavier precip moves s-se of the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-091-
     092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA