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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA