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000
FXUS63 KSGF 111116
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

...Warm Today then Much Colder Tonight and Wednesday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

One more warm day is in store before much colder air plunges back
into the region tonight. Temperatures will soar into the middle
70s to around 80 degrees today which only make the return to
colder temperatures more unpleasant.

Low level moisture will advect into the region today on gusty
southerly to southwesterly winds. This will keep fire weather
conditions below critical levels although the gusty winds will
result in a limited to elevated fire weather risk.

A shortwave trough over the central Rockies will track eastward
into the central Plains today and across the mid Missouri River
Valley tonight. In response a surface low pressure will develop
over eastern Kansas this afternoon then track east toward the Ohio
River Valley tonight. While moisture will increase in advance of
this system it will lack in overall depth and quality.

However strong 500 MB height falls and the arrival of 110 kt upper
level jet will interact with strong frontal scale forcing to provide
at least a chance of showers if not thunderstorms. Progged most
unstable CAPE will be on the order of a few hundred J/KG while
strong deep layer shear will be in place. In general expect an
increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening along
and ahead of the front, and initially focused near the surface low
track across central Missouri. If the updrafts within the
convection can survive the strong shear the potential for an
localized strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out.

A shield of precipitation initially in the form of rain will overspread
central and northern Missouri tonight and wrap southward into the
Ozarks overnight. The rain will mix with snow overnight from north
to south as much colder air advects southward. Little if any
accumulation is expected at this time.

Strong cold air advection will develop behind the front tonight as
northwesterly winds increase into the 25 to 40 mph range. Higher
gusts over 40 mph will be possible as a strong 925-850 MB low
level jet streaks southward in the wake of the exiting surface
low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Chilly temperatures can be expected Wednesday in the wake of the
passing storm system. Temperatures will begin to rebound Thursday
in response to 500 MB height rises and a southwesterly wind.

A shortwave trough and weak front will slide into area later
Friday and may produce a chance of light rain but medium range
models differ on solutions.

Otherwise relatively mild weather is in store from late week into
Saturday. A northwesterly flow aloft will become re-established
from late this weekend into next week opening the door to more
cold frontal passages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Warm conditions with breezy
and gusty southwesterly winds will occur today as mid to high
clouds increase across the region. Some VFR low level clouds
will also spread into the area later this afternoon. Marginal
low level wind shear will remain possible early this morning.

A strong cold front will then sweep through the region this
evening. Moisture is currently limited across the and there is
questions are just how much moisture will return today. Some
scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will be possible
this evening if enough moisture can return. The best potential for
this will be along and east of highway 65.

Behind the front strong and gusty northwesterly winds will occur
and they will usher a much colder airmass into the region. Some
light precipitation will also be possible overnight as the system
moves off to the east. With colder air spreading into he region
this precipitation could be a mix of rain and snow. This
precipitation is expected to be on the light side and no
accumulations are expected.

Low level wind shear will again be a concern tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise