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000
FXUS63 KSGF 111725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2013

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

Temperatures have been jumping around in areas where a decent
snow pack exists based on exposure to sfc winds. KSGF has been down
into the single digits at times when a low level inversion can
form under light/calm wind conditions. Other then that, it has been
quiet tonight.

A dry cold front will move through the area today and we could
briefly see some post frontal stratocumulus, especially over the
northern cwfa. Sfc high pressure will build into the area behind
the front tonight and temperatures will drop like a rock after
sunset with nearly calm winds. A light south wind will develop
over parts of the area late tonight with temperatures again
bouncing around based on sfc wind exposure. All in all, have
undercut low temperatures tonight where snow cover exists with
some near zero deg F readings possible here and there.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

Thursday will be quiet, dry, and warmer with a decent ssw breeze
kicking in as high pressure moves south of the area.

Friday: An upper level low off the coast of northern Baja will
open up and move northeast into western OK by Friday evening.
Modified Gulf moisture and lift ahead of this system will allow
precipitation to spread northeast into the area Fri morning. Warm
advection in the 925-800mb layer will allow temperatures to jump
up well above freezing (5-6 deg C at KSGF/KJLN) prior to
modification due to evaporative cooling from precip saturation.
Progged sfc temperatures will be briefly near or below 32 degrees
in many areas with the onset of precip with a wintry mix of
freezing rain and maybe sleet depending evaporative cooling/web
bulb temperatures during this time. It looks as though sfc
temperatures will rise above freezing by afternoon, so at this
point am not looking at a prolonged high impact ice storm, but
conditions could get a bit messy in some areas Friday morning.
Still a range of possibilities during this time because questions
due to the low level thermal profile and precip onset timing so
obviously forecast guidance trends will be watched closely.

Friday Night-Saturday: With the approach of the upper trough and sfc low
pressure passing to the south and southeast, colder air aloft
should gradually turn rain to snow Friday night with some
accumulation possible into Saturday morning. Guidance with regards
to amounts is variable, but better chances for accumulating snow
seem to be focused over central MO and points north where some
indications are that lift will be enhanced by the passage of the
shortwave and the left exit region of a jet streak.

Sunday-Tuesday. Quiet with a modest warming trend as mid level
upper level ridging tries to build grudgingly into the
central/southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at the
terminals. North winds today will become light and variable this
evening, before veering to south by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell