Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 212041
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 239 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Another cool and cloudy day is underway today, fitting for the
Winter Solstice (5:03 PM this evening).  Temperatures have warmed into
the low to mid 40s in most locations, and really won`t change much
overnight as modest warm air advection increases across the area.

Southerly winds will hold steady or perhaps increase a bit overnight
as low pressure deepens across southern South Dakota/northern
Nebraska.  Areas of drizzle have already formed this afternoon
across Kansas, and expect drizzle to spread into the forecast area
later this evening and tonight as lift and moisture increase.  More
substantial precipitation will then begin to move into the region
from the west during the pre-dawn hours, with chance to likely PoPs
area-wide by Monday morning. Light rain showers should continue
through most of the afternoon hours.

Surface winds will become westerly Monday evening as a lead
shortwave and initial frontal boundary/surface trough move across
the region.  Precipitation will likely decrease in
coverage/intensity Monday night as a quasi-dry slot moves in from
the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The main frontal boundary will pass through the area Tuesday
morning, ushering in a cooler airmass. Precipitation Tuesday doesn`t
look to be terribly widespread at this point, and while cooler air
will be building into the area, anything that does fall during the
day Tuesday looks to fall as rain.  Will need to carefully watch the
far eastern fringes of the CWA Tuesday night as surface low pressure
lifts north-northeast through the Mississippi Valley; depending on
the exact track of the low, an area of rain/snow mix or perhaps just
snow may clip portions of Oregon, Shannon and Dent Counties.  Model
trends have been a bit further east with this feature over the last
12-24 hours, so for now have no snow accumulation in the forecast.
Nonetheless, it`s something worth watching over the next day or two.

The main upper level trough will finally start to lift through the
area on Christmas Eve, with perhaps a flurry or two as the core of
trough moves across the region.  No accumulation is expected.

Christmas Day looks to bring much warmer (in a relative sense)
temperatures, as surface flow quickly becomes southerly in response
to a digging trough across the Intermountain West.  Temperatures on
Christmas may reach the low 50s, with what may well end up being our
best chance for widespread sunshine in a few weeks!

Friday through the weekend looks to be cooler but still seasonable, as
a quick moving but dry cold front moves through late Friday.
Current indications are for temperatures in the 40s Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region into
Monday morning, but there will be some improvement to flight
conditions...at least on a temporary basis. Upstream observations
and short term model guidance indicate that periodic VFR
conditions will develop later this afternoon and into this
evening. Ceilings are then expected to lower again through the
MVFR category from late tonight into Monday morning as a storm
system approaches from the west. Rain showers will also be
possible Monday morning. Winds will increase out of the south
ahead of this system starting this evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






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