Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 182014
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
314 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the area
  into early this evening. Elevated to locally significant fire
  weather conditions will develop on Tuesday.

- Sub freezing temperatures are forecast again tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night.
  Rainfall amounts will overall be light and some locations may
  remain dry.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the
  region late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cool and dry air mass is in place across the region this
afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s this afternoon with humidity values in the 30 to 40
percent range currently. Humidity values are expected to drop to
25 to 35 percent late this afternoon/early this evening and
some locations across south central Missouri possibly dropping
to near 20 percent. Northwesterly wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph
will continue into early this evening then will weaken around
sunset. The dry air mass and gusty winds will continue to lead
to elevated fire weather conditions into early this evening.

Surface high pressure will move south through the region this
evening into tonight with clear skies and light and variable
winds occurring. Lows tonight will again drop into the middle
20s to the lower 30s. The coldest readings will occur across
the eastern Ozarks as a few locations dropping into the lower
20s not out of the question.

The surface high will move off to south of the area by Tuesday
morning. Southwest to westerly winds will develop across the
area on Tuesday behind the high. Gusty winds will develop and
will see gusts up to 25 to 35 mph at times starting during the
morning hours Tuesday. The strongest winds will likely occur
during the mid morning hours to the early afternoon hours but
gusty winds will occur into the evening hours. Afternoon
humidity values will again drop into the 25 to 35 percent range
with portions of south central Missouri have the potential to
drop to near 20 percent. Models are showing some moisture
returning from west to east on Tuesday, if moisture return is a
little slower and more mixing occurs there is the potential for
slightly lower humidity values on Tuesday. Elevated to locally
significant fire weather conditions will develop across the
region again on Tuesday as the gusty winds and dry conditions
combine.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A weak front will move through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night are expected to cool into the
middle 30s to the lower 40s. Highs on Wednesday will range from
the upper 50s across central Missouri to near 70 across far
southern Missouri as a cooler air mass advects south into
portions of the area. North to northeasterly winds will occur on
Wednesday and generally be on the lighter side.

An upper level shortwave trough will move east across the
southern Plains Wednesday night and across the region on
Thursday. The Ensemble models continue to show some rain
chances occurring across the area at times from Wednesday night
into Friday with the passage of the shortwave and with a
secondary trough moving across the region from the northwest
late this week. A drier air mass is in place and moisture return
will be more limited so rainfall amounts will overall be light and
portions of the area could remain dry.

The ensemble models then show an upper level trough digging
south across the west coast this weekend then moving east early
next week. The models do differ on the timing, track and
strength and structure of the system. This system will bring
better shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) to the region
from late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the region this afternoon
through Tuesday. Gusty north to northwesterly winds will occur
this afternoon into early this evening. Then light a variable
winds will occur the rest of the evening into early Tuesday
morning. Gusty west to southwesterly will then develop later
Tuesday morning and continue into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise


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