769
FXUS63 KSGF 121445
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
945 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph today and
  tomorrow. Timing is in the afternoons and evenings and will
  occur mainly south of I-44.

- Slow-moving and/or repeated storms will be capable of
  producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding today
  through Sunday.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Updated aviation section also included below.

Band of showers and thunderstorms that moved through the region
overnight extends roughly from West Plains to along and south of
the Arkansas. As evident on radar and warming cloud tops...outflow
induced storms are diminishing as low level jet weakens.

A cold front lags behind the convection...extending from
Jefferson City to just north of Springfield then through Joplin
into northeast Oklahoma. Showers have begun to redevelop over
southeast Kansas into the Joplin area as the front moves
through.

Morning KSGF upper air sounding captured environment in behind
the nighttime convection and the approaching cold front yielding
a MLCAPE of nearly 1500 joules but a CIN of 75. Precipital
water had increased from 1.37 at 00z to 1.77 inches.

Through noon...lightning potential will exist across Table Rock
lake westward...though anticipate convection along the Arkansas
border into south central MO to further weaken/diminish to
isolated showers. Scattered showers will then possible mainly
south of I-44.

After noon...overall short term models continue to support
elevated convection as heating resumes by mid afternoon.
Coverage will be isolated to widely scattered and mainly south
of Highway 60. MLCAPES to 2000 joules may yield some stronger
updrafts that may yield 40-50 mph winds along with heavy
downpours leading to an localized flood threat with the
increased PW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A round of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area just
after midnight bringing around 0.10" of rain to southern MO. A
low-level jet is in place helping to keep showers around the
area. As mentioned in the previous discussion, models have had a
tough time handling the overnight convection. It seems that
these showers will continue until around sunrise when the LLJ
begins to diminish. Then, there will be a break in rain for most
of the area as the atmosphere recovers from the morning
convection. Though, the front will settle south of I-44 today
near the MO/AR border which is where the highest chance for rain
will occur. The POPs really increase this afternoon to 30-70%
with the higher end percentages occurring closest to the
southern border. MUCAPE is also the highest over that area with
values near 2500 J/kg along the front. This area has been
outlined in a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather today from
McDonald co east into Dent co and south with the main threat
being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph from any downbursts that
do occur. Expect most of the storms to be sub-severe.

Though, not to be overlooked is the flash flooding potential
with this system. A Flood Advisory was already issued overnight
for southeastern Greene co. Since the front will be parked over
southern MO, these storms could train over the same areas that
received rain Friday night and cause flash flooding. Far
southern MO is still in a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive
rainfall which means ponding and nuisance flooding may occur in
those areas especially urban areas.

Sunday will be very similar to today with lingering morning rain
showers, a break in the rain, then destabilization in the
afternoon near the MO/AR border. The front starts to move out of
the area by Sunday evening. Main threats for Sunday is damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph with a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe
weather in place again over the same area as Saturday`s outlook.
Again, flash flooding will be a concern with these storms.

Daytime highs will be slightly cooler with lingering cloud cover
from the scattered convection. Highs will be in the mid 80s
today and lower 80s on Sunday. Lows will be warm in the upper
60s with south to southwesterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Monday-Thursday:
The remainder of the long-term forecast appears to remain fairly
active as multiple shortwaves transit the area. We have PoPs in
the grids every day next week, with the highest chances in the
afternoons and evenings each day. NBM percentile data support
highs near the climatological average through this period in the
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Updated...

Multi cloud decks exist ahead of an approaching cold front.
MVFR ceilings between 1500-3000ft will be prevalent through noon
followed by broken ceilings of 4000-6000ft. See the Updated
Section above for convective expectation into this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Runnels