Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
628 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Tuesday. Southwest winds will diminish to around 10 to 20 knots after
00Z Monday...and then increase once again after 14Z to 15Z Monday to
15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 to 35 knots at all three TAF sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/

Another hot, dry, and breezy day expected tomorrow with record
breaking temperatures expected. We`ve seen a few 100 degree
temperatures this afternoon, and locations in the eastern Panhandles
could see similar results tomorrow. Winds are expected to become even
stronger than today`s as the leeside trough deepens further. Between
downslope winds, and a very similar 850mb thermal ridge as the past
few days, temperatures will have no trouble reaching the low to mid
90s again on Monday. The only hesitation with going even higher with
temperatures (say closer to the upper 90s and few 100 degree sites
today) is the very slight chance the area could see some thin cirrus.
The upper level ridge starts retreating southward ever so slightly
during the day, and if a very weak shortwave moves into the terrain
to the west, that could induce a bit more cloud cover than what we
have seen. This is evident this afternoon over eastern CO and NE New
Mexico, so the greatest possibility for busting on temperatures (or
winds for that matter) would most likely be over the far northwestern

Prefrontal trough will give way to a cold front on Tuesday, with surface
high pressure building across the Plains. Quiet weather and more
typical October temperatures expected. A reinforcing shot of cooler
air will arrive Wednesday, lowering temperatures more and bringing
the possibility of frost Thursday night. Models continue to trend
drier for the 12Z runs so have kept the previous dry forecast for the
period. Temperatures look to rebound to normal or slightly above
normal next weekend as upper level ridging builds across the
Southwestern US.


Another day like today in store for tomorrow regarding fire weather.
20 foot winds are forecast to be even stronger (20 to 30 mph with
higher gusts) and relative humidity values will once again drop into
the single digits in the west and teens in the east.  RFTI values of
4 to 6 will cover most of the Panhandles, with values approaching 7
or 8 in the western Texas Panhandle.  Winds will start to taper off
late in the afternoon across the Oklahoma Panhandle, and there is a
very slight chance that cloud cover could also increase there during
the afternoon hours.  The far southeastern corner of the Texas
Panhandle has been left out of the Red Flag Warning as fuels there
are a bit greener than in other locations, but the wind and relative
humidity criteria will most likely be met there as well. Winds will
slowly start shifting northerly behind a cold front Monday night and
into Tuesday morning, though speeds are expected to remain closer to
10 to 15 mph.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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