Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 141726
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1126 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Main
thing will be the wind speeds tonight into tomorrow. A low level
jet will also be present and could pose a risk for low level wind
shear tonight into tomorrow morning. Low level jet will be
located near the surface around 500 feet at 55 knots with
50 degrees in difference between the surface wind speed direction
and the low level jet direction.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 537 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF period will be starting out with some IFR to MVFR
conditions for low visibilities due to low level saturation
causing misty/fog conditions. Conditions will improve to VFR around
15/16Z for all three TAF sites. Winds will be out of the SSW 5-15
kts until 06Z for DHT/GUY and 08Z on Wed for AMA when a cold front
will move through shifting winds to out of the north at 20 kts
with gust up to 30 kts.

Hoffeditz/Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 432 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low clouds and patchy fog have developed once again across much of
the OK and TX Panhandles as well as surrounding locations outside
our fcst area. Once sunrise occurs, expect the fog and low clouds
to erode as the morning progresses. Well above normal temperatures
are expected today with record highs possibly in jeopardy at KAMA,
KBGD, and KDHT in which the record high at each location is 80,
81, and 80 degrees respectively.

Otherwise, the overall upper level pattern continues to be a dry
one for the srn high plains through next Tuesday. Periodic cold
frontal passages are expected to impact the area during the next 7
days. However, no precipitation is foreseen. The first cold front
will move across the region tonight with cooler temperatures in
store for Wednesday followed by another quick warmup on Thursday
and Friday.

Medium range models continue to differ some on timing of a second
cold frontal passage and its associated vigorous upper level
shortwave trof for late this week. The 00Z GFS has trended a bit
more towards the slower 00Z ECMWF but is still faster. The GFS
now brings the front across the fcst area late Friday afternoon
and evening while the ECMWF tracks it through the region Friday
night. This far out in time, have continued to side with an
average model consensus on timing and temperatures for Friday.
Nevertheless, no matter what medium range model one looks at, the
main impacts from the associated upper level shortwave trof are
forecast to remain north of the OK and TX Panhandles, with dry
slotting expected for the srn high plains at this time. Once this
particular cold front moves south of the area, cooler temperatures
are anticipated for the upcoming weekend, moderating again by
Monday. A third cold front may affect the OK and TX Panhandles
next Tuesday.

Andrade

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely Friday afternoon
across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to breezy to windy
conditions along with forecast minimum relative humidity values
near 20 percent.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99



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