Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181742 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs, a small threat exists for isold tstms late this
afternoon into early this evening across the area. However,
confidence is low as to whether development will occur and if any
particular TAF site will be impacted. Therefore, have omitted
mention of this weather element. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
anticipated at all terminal sites through 18Z Tuesday.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

AVIATION...
12Z Issuance...Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are out there right
now. By late morning, everywhere should become VFR as cigs/vis
rises and remain so for the remainder of the period. Winds will
be a bit breezy today with southwesterly winds gusting up to
20kts. Winds should drop below 12kts this evening.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms expected to linger well into the
morning across eastern sections.  Isolated redevelopment this
afternoon and evening is expected across eastern and south-
central sections where corridor of higher instability expected to
remain.

Strengthening near-zonal flow on Tuesday expected to lead to
deepening of surface trof across Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles,
with dry southwest winds expected as trof migrates eastward across
the area.  Models bring a cold front into the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but vary quite a bit on timing of frontal passage.

By late Wednesday southwest flow aloft resumes as western CONUS
trof begins to dig, and then takes on a positive tilt while
remaining west of the forecast area for the remainder of the
forecast.  This prolonged southwest flow is expected to tap
tropical moisture, as an area of low pressure is expected to
develop by the end of the week off the western coast of southern
Mexico.  Healthy pops remain in the forecast Friday through
Sunday as the tropical connection persists.  We may see episodes
of heavy rains over the weekend, particularly if a frontal
boundary slips into the area.

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected today
as relative humidities will remain well above 20 percent.
Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions may develop
on Tuesday across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern three-
fourths of the Texas Panhandle as relative humidities fall below
20 percent southwest winds increase.  Light winds on Wednesday
will preclude fire weather concerns.  Southwest winds will
increase again on Thursday but relative humidities are expected to
remain above 20 percent.  Chances for widespread wetting rains
begin on Friday and continue through the weekend.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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