Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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237
FXUS64 KAMA 152116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET CONTINUES TO BRING A PARADE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS
THE AREA.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN CO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 998MB SFC LOW CENTERED
NEAR KLHX. COMBINATION OF A RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING INTO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT HAS LED TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY. THESE WINDS IN TURN HAVE BEEN HELPING TO MIX OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THIS BROAD MOISTURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE/...DECREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE NM STATE LINE.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RANGES FROM 30-40 KTS...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS.

WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LEFT...MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES. DYNAMIC
FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAK EMERGING FROM THE UPPER LOW IMPINGES ON THE AREA...AND
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. IN
ADDITION...A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS INCREASED FORCING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ABOARD A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET...SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS
IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG/ AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...WHERE PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1-1.4 INCHES. ONE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN
THIS AREA IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT HELD OFF GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD ISSUES ATTM.

THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION THEN
BECOMES WHETHER THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR MOVE INTO WESTERN OK
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG IT. HELD ONTO PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE BOUNDARY TO STILL BE IN THIS AREA. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEY WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES EAST OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOW...AND DEEP
MIXING INTO THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADD FURTHER MOMENTUM TO SURFACE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE PANHANDLES SIT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH MOIST
LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND A BROAD/STRONG
SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN A CONTINUED ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
APPROACHES TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS. WHILE SOME STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP...IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ATTM.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL SEE SOME DRYING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE REGION BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL IN
ALL...THE ACTIVE/WET SPRING PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                55  78  50  81  50 /  60  10   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  61  79  50  83  50 /  60  50  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  73  46  78  47 /  30  10   5   0   5
BORGER TX                  60  79  54  83  52 /  60  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              55  77  48  82  49 /  60  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  56  79  50  80  48 /  60  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               59  80  52  82  53 /  70  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 50  76  43  79  47 /  40  10   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  57  78  48  81  49 /  50  20   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                54  75  49  79  47 /  60  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                61  79  52  82  52 /  70  50  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  77  51  79  51 /  70  30   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                62  81  52  83  53 /  70  50  20   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              62  82  52  85  55 /  70  50  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/08





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