Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 190548 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS THEY NEAR THE KDHT TERMINAL. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS HAVE
DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM INSERTING A TEMPO GROUP WITH -TSRA IN IT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE KGUY/KAMA
TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A STRATUS DECK TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR FOR NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TOWARD EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOK TO BE BETTER SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING A MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS TOO
LOW ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
09-14Z DUE TO BR OR LOW CLOUDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW
TO MENTION AS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
HELP NEGATE THIS POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT
KDHT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TOO
LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
AFTER 21Z SATURDAY NEAR KDHT AND POSSIBLY KGUY...AND THIS MENTION
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO. AS THE HOURS PROGRESS
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES ENTER THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUES TO
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
ROCKIES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GO NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES UNDER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE
LARGE SCALE MECHANISMS WILL COMBINE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (AROUND
1500 J/KG) AND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF ALL OF THESE FACTORS COME
INTO ALIGNMENT AT THE SAME TIME WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS, BUT IF ANY ONE OF THE FACTORS ARE SLIGHTLY OFF ALIGNMENT THEN
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MAINLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
WON`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM WEST OF A BEAVER TO HEREFORD LINE.
PWATS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES TO 1.65 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD END ROUND 3 AM
SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WE SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SO
THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL (ROUGHLY 3 PM
TO 9 PM SUNDAY).

THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE AXIS
SITUATE ITSELF INTO A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION ROUGHLY FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALIVE FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WONDER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTWARD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS COULD SPELL AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP THIS PORTION DRY FOR NOW. IF A
WETTER FORECAST PROVES TRUE THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE
TOO WARM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/02





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