Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231843
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1243 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 12-22KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE



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