Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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300
FXUS63 KDDC 191727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...Updated Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Strong SW winds beginning to increase as of midday, and will only
increase further through 6 pm. Some gusts near 40 mph are likely.
Strong dryline near the CO/KS border as of noon will progress
quickly to the eastern CWA by late afternoon, with dewpoints
crashing into the 30s. High confidence the combination of this dry
air intrusion and strong SW winds will create a dangerous wildfire
setup for several hours this afternoon. Please be aware that
cigarettes and catalytic converters on cars start the majority
of dormant/cured grass fires, and these can be prevented. Already
90 degrees here at the office as of noon, and many locations will
approach/achieve 100 this afternoon.

Winds will diminish some around 7 pm as heating and mixing wane,
becoming southerly at 15-25 mph and gusty. A sharp and well-
defined, but dry, cold front is slated to slide through SW KS
tonight, during the 1am-4am timeframe. The cold front will be
accompanied by an abrupt shift to northerly winds, also gusty to
near 30 mph for several hours late tonight.

Wednesday, winds will veer NEly and remain gusty for several hours
after sunrise, once mixing commences. Pressure gradients will
weaken during the course of the afternoon, with winds become
easterly and decreasing to near 10 mph by late day. Few if any
clouds with a dry airmass persisting. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler compared to Tuesday`s unseasonable heat, with
highs reduced to near 80 NW to near 90 SE (Barber county).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

On Wednesday a cold front will become nearly stationary across
the panhandle of Texas and northern Oklahoma as a surface ridge
axis crosses western and central Kansas. Winds speeds are expected
to average 10 mph or less near this ridge axis and the northerly
winds will gradually veer to the southeast by late day. Highs on
Wednesday based on the 900mb to 850mb temperature trends are
expected to be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to what is
expected later today (Tuesday afternoon).

For the remainder of the work week and into the weekend period an
upper level trough/low will move slowly east southeast across the
western United States as several upper waves eject out of the
based of this upper trough and move across the Western High
Plains. As the first of these upper waves move out into the
Western Plains Friday night there will be a chance for
thunderstorms...mainly near a deepening surface lee trough that
will be located near or just west of the Kansas/Colorado border.
Given the mean cloud layer winds most of these storms that do
develop should stay west/northwest of Garden City and Liberal but
a slight chance for a few weakening storms can not be completely
out of the question near these locations overnight Friday night.

The better chance for convection across all of western Kansas
will be Saturday night and Sunday as the next upper wave moves out
of the southern Rockies and approaches western Kansas. Convection
over the weekend will again develop near a surface boundary late
Saturday which is forecast to extend from southeast Colorado to
north central Kansas and then spread east through early Sunday.

Temperatures late week are expected to rebound back into the 90s
and gusty south southeast winds can be expected Thursday and
Friday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies.
This may result in elevated fire weather conditions late week.
These gusty southeasterly winds will also draw more humid air back
in the lower levels to southwest Kansas. Given this at this time
the better chances for elevated fire weather conditions for
portions of western Kansas will be on Thursday. Friday will be
windy and warm but increasing dew points may limit how low the
afternoon relative humidity values will fall.

As an upper level system crosses the West Central High Plains on
late Sunday and a cold front will cross or move into western
Kansas which will enhance the chance again for thunderstorms.
Timing of this frontal passage late this weekend into early next
week currently is unclear but even if the frontal boundary is
slower that what is currently anticipated the clouds and
precipitation will still hold temperatures down late this weekend.
The weekend should start off with highs in the 85 to 90 degree
range but end up with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid
80s...depending on timing of the cold front, clouds, and
precipitation changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR/SKC through this TAF period. Strong SW winds will impact
aviation operations at all airports this afternoon with gusts
near 35 kts. Winds will subside some around 00z, becoming
southerly at 15-25 kts. Expect a dry cold front passage to
bring an abrupt shift to gusty north winds during the 06z-09z
Wed time frame, with gusts in the 25-30 kt range. Surface winds
will veer NE and remain gusty for several hours after sunrise
Wednesday, then diminish by midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Critical fire conditions will spread west to east across SW KS
through this afternoon. A red flag warning is in effect for most
zones through 8 pm CDT. Gusts near 40 mph are expected, along with
min RH falling to the 9-15% range. Any wildfire ignitions will be
very difficult to control in this environment. Winds will diminish
some around 7 pm, and become southerly averaging 15-25 mph with
higher gusts. A sharp but dry cold front passage is expected
tonight during the 1am - 4am timeframe, which will bring an abrupt
shift to gusty north winds, also gusting near 30 mph. Any fire
fighting efforts this evening will need to contend with this
abrupt northerly wind shift after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  96  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  91  52  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  97  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  98  60  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  97  68  89  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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