Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Light north winds will pick up a little late this morning with
marginal gusts heading through the afternoon. No major air mass
change has occurred, so temperatures will still be much warmer than
average. However the west winds of yesterday`s near record highs
were helped pout by strong  downslope...which is absent today.  Model
high temp spreads are still from around the mid to upper 80s near
the OK line, and say mid to upper 70s through the I-70 corridor. The
GFS shows low level stratus developing once the onset combination of
radiational cooling and set in late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Tuesday will be a very challenging high temperature forecast due to
the low clouds impact on highs. It`s probably a given the Hays
area wont exceed 50 degrees under the stratus layer, but locations
from Elkhart to Liberal could be in the 50s or the 70s depending
on the behavior of the cloud layer. Then will be the issue of
fog/drizzle/showers and low clouds in advance of the next major
synoptic wave that looks like it will bring thunderstorms by the
Thursday into timeframe. At this time the setup looks good for
mesoscale forcing potential with low to medium instability/CAPE at
5 days out. Additional challenges lie in the surface wind
forecasts, which the models are showing the subsident side of the
cyclone could bring and extremely windy to marginal high wind
event potential following the precipitation. Plenty of time to
see models change tracks or timing, but confidence seems to be
increasing with respect to chances for decent measurable and
beneficial precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions at all TAF sites through tomorrow morning, ~11Z.
A cold front is moving in this evening, reinforcing the gusty
northeast winds. Gusts will die down after sunset. Surface high
pressure will fill in behind the cold front. Low level stratus
will advect into southwest Kansas around 11Z for Garden City and
Dodge City, and ~15Z for Hays. This will lower ceilings to roughly
1500 feet. Will have to watch for movement into IFR conditions,
but will keep MVFR for now. Winds will pick up toward the end of
the TAF period to 15-20 knots.


Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Elevated conditions today as highs soar to the 80s driving relative
humidity into the teens in the west and southwest counties.
Sustained wind speeds are not expected to reach the red flag
criteria, but outdoor burning should be strongly discouraged this
afternoon especially as gusts develop. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
much cooler, with minimum RH`s much higher; so high they are the
first consecutive days in a while where no fire weather risk will be


DDC  85  46  59  35 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  86  44  58  35 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  85  48  66  36 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  88  51  65  36 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  75  43  53  35 /   0  10  10  30
P28  89  51  65  40 /   0   0  10  20




SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.