Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 12Z MONDAY A 500MB TROUGH/LOW WAS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A +110KT 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT AT THE 700MB TO
500MB LEVEL. AT THE 850MB LEVEL A WEDGE OF -6C TO -7C TEMPERATURES
WAS LOCATED FROM AMARILLO TO DODGE CITY TO NORTH PLATE. A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE SURFACE TO 850MB LEVEL WAS ADVECTING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW CLOUDS HAD BEEN
SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG RIDGING UPPER JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY, INTENSIFYING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
CREATING A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY  WINDS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION  TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMUP MAY BE
IMPEDED BY INCREASING STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY  THE NMM/ARW AND THE NAM ALL
SHOW SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF A TRACE TO 0.01" QPF THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THIS MIGHT INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS THERMODYNAMIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE DRY LAYERS IN THE MID LEVELS
AND NEAR THE GROUND WHICH ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO GETTING
HYDROMETEORS TO THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE LIKELY
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
LIKELY IMPEDE INSOLATION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT ON THE LOWER PLAINS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
HOWEVER, WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A LITTLE OR HOLD STEADY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH EARLIEST
IN THE DAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE FALLING BACK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT OVERLY MOIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS DURING THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  32  42  15 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  37  30  38  13 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  41  35  44  15 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  40  30  45  16 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  34  31  37  12 /  10  10  10  30
P28  36  33  46  18 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT


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