000
FXUS63 KDDC 271015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid