Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 172238
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
As a weak upper level ridge pushes further east into the Western
High Plains tonight, the NAM/GFS indicate an upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Rockies off the ridge axis into the high
plains of eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas bringing
precip chances to the region. Although the flow aloft will remain
fairly weak, enough low/mid level moisture present combined with
increased instability, may be enough to support isolated
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into this evening
across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas in the vicinity of
more ideal surface forcing. CAPE values in excess of 1000 to 1500
J/KG and more favorable vertical shear profiles may be enough to
support stronger storms briefly through late this evening.
Widespread severe is unlikely. Precip chances will then dwindle
overnight with drier conditions likely once again during much of
the day Monday.
Low temperatures will fall back into the mid to upper 60s(F) across
west central Kansas tonight with the lower to mid 70s(F) possible
in south central Kansas as a southerly flow near the surface
reinforces the warmer air mass across the region. Look for highs
well up into the 90s(F) Monday afternoon with a few locations
possibly reaching 100F as warm air advection continues.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
There was not much change in the extended period. The early part of
the Days 3-7 period will be dominated by an upper level high
pressure system over the 4-corners area, and it will start to
migrate eastward through the southern plains on late Tuesday, and
should be over Florida by early Thursday. A long wave trough will
form over the northwest part of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday,
while a cut off upper low forms off the western coast of
California by Tuesday and then builds southwestward off the
southwest coast of California by Wednesday and Thursday.
A surface trough will be anchored over southwest Kansas from
Wednesday into Friday night, when then a cold front will surge south
from Nebraska and be through southwest Kansas by Sunday. This means
it will hot with highs in the upper 90s to around 100F each day, and
lows basically in the lower to mid 70s in our north, along and north
of the I-70 corridor, and as warm as the mid to upper 70s in the
southeast sections near the Coldwater and Medicine Lodge. It may
cool down into max temps in the 80s on Sunday, behind that front.
With the lower level heating, a surface boundary present in the
afternoon trughing, and just small ripples aloft in the upper
flow, there will be 20 to 30 percent chances for sporadic
thunderstorm activity, but no widespread coverage any particular day.
Also, with that surface trough straddled across our CWA each day,
it will become breezy during the afternoons with south winds in 15
to 25 mph and gusty range.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
VFR conditions will prevail tonight into the overnight period with
winds out of the south southeast around 8 knots. A few
thunderstorms may move into the GCK and HYS terminals around 01Z
bringing a chance of rain and a few thunderstrikes.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 98 68 98 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 68 98 66 98 / 30 10 20 10
EHA 67 99 67 98 / 20 10 20 10
LBL 67 100 68 98 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 68 98 68 97 / 30 20 20 10
P28 70 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 10