Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180548
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
ASHORE INTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO PICK UP A LITTLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS,
THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A +70KT JET CLIMBS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH A LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES ONLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS
SETTLING UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE 60S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S(F) IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP INFLUENCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING REINFORCING THE COOLER
AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S(F) AND 50S(F) BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AS BETTER
GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE INCREASING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW AND WILL CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF
A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN OPEN AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER UPPER WAVE WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND DRYLINE FARTHER
SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. TRENDS IN RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES
WHERE EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE DAY
PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION COULD BE REALIZED AGAIN AS THE
GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW
LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KGCK, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KDDC, BRIEFLY
TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT MONDAY EVENING WHILE BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  56  45  58 /  30  90  90  10
GCK  47  55  43  57 /  50  80  80  10
EHA  49  55  45  59 /  70  80  50  10
LBL  51  57  47  59 /  60  90  70  10
HYS  45  55  43  56 /  10  80  80  20
P28  51  61  50  62 /  10  80  80  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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