000
FXUS63 KDDC 041139
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

An upper level trough, located near the coast of northern
California at 00z Wednesday, will quickly move east across the
western United States and be late day is forecast to be located
near the central Rockies. As this upper level system approaches, a
trough of low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado as
westerly downslope flow improves. Both the NAM and GFS indicate an
area of +10c 850mb air wills spread into western Kansas by the
early afternoon as a cold front moves south into Nebraska. 00z
Thursday mixdown temperatures over western Kansas suggests the
potential for highs this afternoon ranging from the 60 to 65
degrees, however mid to high level moisture will begin to increase
late day as the upper level disturbance begins to approach the
area from the west. Taking this into account the previous forecast
still looks on track with highs climbing into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s in areas free of snow cover. In areas where snow cover
still exists the highs today are expected to average from 15 to
near 20 degrees cooler.

Tonight a cold front will move out of Nebraska and into western
Kansas as an upper level disturbance crosses the central Rockies.
Ahead of this cold front an area of low level moisture below the
900mb level is forecast to improve across portions of western
Kansas. This return of moisture will occur under a warm layer in
the in the 900 to 800mb level so only status and/or fog is
anticipated early Tuesday night. The depth of this low level
moisture will improve behind the cold front and the layer of
warmer air will begin to decrease as well. As the low levels
saturates...both the NAM and GFS indicated an increase in mid
level moisture and lift ahead of this upper level disturbance,
especially near a 700mb baroclinic zone. This is also an area
where 850-700mb frontogenesis will be improving...especially after
06z Wednesday. Current track and timing from these two models
place this baroclinic zone/area frontogenesis across west central
and north central Kansas by 12z Wednesday. Based on this improving
lift and increasing low level moisture will favor west central and
north central Kansas as the area more favorable for light
precipitation developing after 06z. At this time am not completely
able to rule out the potential for light freezing drizzle further
south of this area, however based on low confidence and depth of
the moist layer begin 2000ft or less have decided to not mention
this possibility at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

The upper level system and associated mid level forcing discussed in
the short term discussion will be progressing southeastward during
the day Wednesday across the remainder of southwest and south
central Kansas. Model soundings indicate snow as the entire profile
will be below freezing after 15z, except for perhaps right near the
surface. Rain cannot be completely ruled out if the boundary layer
is a little warmer.

Lee troughing will resume Thursday as the mid to high level flow
becomes more zonal, allowing temperatures to rise into the 50s and
60s. An upper level system will amplify over the southern Rockies by
Friday, along with a cold frontal passage during the day. Some rain
or snow may accompany this system by Friday night and early Saturday;
but given the positive tilt of the upper trough, a major winter
storm is not expected. This system will close off over central
Texas by Sunday, with low level warming expected well north of the
system over western Kansas as weak lee troughing develops over the
high plains.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the large scale
pattern by early next week as the ECMWF/GFS develop another upper level
system over the southern Rockies with a chance of rain or snow by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, while the GEM does not.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A cold front will pass through the TAF sites between 08 and 11Z
Wednesday, or toward the end of the period. Behind the front, LIFR
CIGS can be expected and probably MVFR visbys. A period of
freezing drizzle cannot be completely ruled out at the end of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  25  39  23 /   0  10  40  10
GCK  52  26  44  24 /   0  20  50   0
EHA  61  30  52  28 /   0  10  20   0
LBL  54  28  44  25 /   0  10  40   0
HYS  44  24  39  21 /   0  30  50   0
P28  38  23  35  20 /   0  10  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch