000
FXUS63 KDDC 161600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Update for meso discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Winds are at advisory criteria across west-central Kansas. Have issued
a short term wind advisory in this area per obs and short term guidance.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The 16.12Z 250/500-hPa map a shortwave trough moving toward the Central
Plains. Ahead of this feature, warm air advection continued across western
Kansas with 700/850-hPa temperatures at 5C/10C, respectively. At the
sfc, a cold front/pre-frontal trough was moving across the central High
Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale zonal northwesterly
flow aloft was approaching the Northern Plains early this morning.
The disturbance will move rapidly east across the plains today,
leading to a weak frontal passage across western Kansas during the
mid to late morning hours. The airmass behind the initial frontal
surge will not be all that cold, so influence on temperatures today
will be negligible. Temperatures will still reach the lower to mid
60s across much of west central Kansas. Areas across south central
Kansas will see highs in the lower 70s given the later frontal
passage during the afternoon hours (especially Barber County). With
the airmass as dry as it is ahead of the front, no precipitation is
expected during the daytime and early evening hours.

A secondary disturbance in the northwest flow pattern will approach
Colorado this evening.  The more southern track will favor
development of 850mb-surface low across West Texas. 700mb
development will occur by the mid evening hours across far southeast
Colorado and adjacent far southwest KS/western Oklahoma Panhandle.
This is the favored area for precipitation initially...with light
precipitation spreading east through the overnight hours.  Will
carry Likely POPs (60-70 percent) across mainly the western half of
the forecast area ending 12z Thursday.  All the models suggest the
lower tropospheric thermodynamic profile will be warm enough to keep
all the precipitation as rain...even along the Colorado border...so
we removed the mention of snow during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central
High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds
with a chance of precipitation. Models are a lot warmer than what
they were last night and have decided to go with all rain as the
type of precipitation. There could be a few snow flakes mixed in
across west central Kansas but no measurable accumulation is
expected at this time. Winds will generally be from the northeast
throughout the day with highs in the lower 50s.

Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge
building above the Plains. Winds will shift back to more of a
southerly direction during this time frame. However, this will be
short lived as an upper level shortwave moves through the Southwest
United States and Four Corners Region Friday then into the Central
Rockies and Central Plains on Saturday. Clouds will be on the
increase Friday night as this system approaches with a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Additional isolated
thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday with decreasing
cloudiness in the afternoon as the system exits the area. As for
temperatures, highs look to reach into the 70s Friday through Sunday
with lows Friday morning in the lower to mid 30s.  Lows Saturday
morning will generally be in the upper 40s with lows Sunday morning
ranging from the upper 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s
across south central Kansas.

The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level
ridging building across the Rockies and southerly winds at the
surface. Skies should be partly cloudy. Highs Monday and Tuesday
look to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high clouds.
Winds will be shifting to the north by late this morning with
sustained winds around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  40  52  34 /   0  60  70  10
GCK  64  39  53  34 /   0  80  50  10
EHA  66  40  52  34 /   0  70  50  10
LBL  69  41  53  33 /   0  50  60  10
HYS  66  36  52  33 /   0  50  50  10
P28  73  44  53  35 /   0  50  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon FOR
KSZ043-044-061-062.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42