Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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601
FXUS63 KDDC 181840
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Strong shortwave exiting eastward through Kansas at midday, with
strong subsidence and drying across SW KS. Pressure gradient has
supported NW wind gusts as high as 50 mph this morning. NW winds
will rapidly weaken after 3 pm, as incoming surface high pressure
settles over SW KS by sunset. Even with full sunshine this
afternoon, 850 mb temperatures will only support lower to mid 50s.

Tonight...Clear and seasonably cold. Surface high pressure will
strengthen further to near 1030 mb as it sinks southward into
west Texas tonight. A light SW wind of 10 mph or less will
prevail. Strong radiational cooling in a dry airmass will easily
allow for temperatures to fall into the mid 20s at sunrise Sunday,
but the weak downslope component should keep most locations out of
the teens.

Sunday...Sunny, windy and warmer. Surface high moves to near the
Arklatex by 6 pm, allowing return flow to establish quickly.
Pressure gradient will support an average windy day for SW KS,
with SW winds averaging 20-30 mph. A modest warming at 850 mb to
near 8C and good downslope components (along with full sun and dry
ground) will allow for most locations to reach the lower to
perhaps mid 60s. Increasing cirrus is expected by afternoon which
will cap temperatures to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Extremely quiet and completely dry weather will continue through
Thanksgiving and beyond. Medium range models show no hints of any
pattern changes, with a polar vortex finding a home near Hudson
Bay and eastern Canada, while a strong upper ridge remains
stagnant over the eastern Pacific near Baja California. At noon on
Thanksgiving Day, 12z ECMWF depicts a deep cold 500 dm low at
Hudson Bay, and an impressive 595 dm ridge near San Diego. Until
this synoptic pattern can break down, we will not see meaningful
rain or snow in SW Kansas under the benign dry NW flow. So, the
forecast is reduced to minor dry cold fronts, wind shifts, periods
of cirrus and temperature fluctuations.

Monday will be warmer, well into the 60s. The next dry cold front
looks quite wimpy on the latest model runs (much weaker than this
morning`s), so north winds and only back to the 50s Tuesday.
A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Friday, with the
shopping day Black Friday expected to be the warmest day, near 70.
The next cold front Friday night into Saturday appears to have
some more teeth to it (stronger north winds, maybe a passing
sprinkle) but still nothing of any consequence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Strong shortwave is exiting eastward through central Kansas as of
17z, with strong subsidence, drying and clearing in its wake.
Expect VFR/SKC through this entire TAF package. Very strong NW
winds at midday (peak gust of 43 kts observed at DDC) will rapidly
weaken after 21z Sat, as 1025 mb surface high moves to near LBL
by 00z Sun. Light SW winds less than 8 kts will prevail overnight.
After 15z Sunday, surface high will be located in central Texas,
and return flow will commence with SW winds averaging 15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  26  62  32 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  52  25  62  28 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  49  29  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  53  25  62  31 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  24  60  31 /  50   0   0   0
P28  56  28  60  33 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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