Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ENCOURAGE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO NEAR 30 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S,
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS AROUND 53F ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE IN COMANCHE AND CLARK COUNTIES.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TAKE OVER. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE ENDED AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SLOWLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING. LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS WILL CREEP NORTH INTO THE THE
SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MONDAY, WHILE AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 40S, FROM HAYS TO
SYRACUSE. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID AFTERNOON AND WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE SLOW WARM UP WITH RUN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S
BY WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS
CLOUDS START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING, THE MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED FARTHER EAST WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STAY WELL EAST OF OUR CWA, AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL AID IN WARMING THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 60S NEAR ELKHART, THE LOWER TO MID 50S FROM
MEDICINE LODGE TO DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY, AND THE MID 40S IN
THE HAYS AREA. SOME MODELS ARE EVEN SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST AREA
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THANKSGIVING AND THE NEXT DAY,
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF I-70, AND RANGE TO THE
LOWER 30S NEAR ELKHART AND LIBERAL. RIGHT NOW, THE ECMWF MODEL IS
HANGING ON TO BRING THAT COLD FRONT IN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS PUSH WARMER
AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL
FOR NOW, BUT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS MAY WARM US UP EVEN MORE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR SATURDAY, THE SAME PATTERN HOLDS TRUE WITH THE SUPERBLEND
MODEL PLACING COLD AIR IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, BASICALLY NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LAKIN SOUTHEAST TO PRATT, FORECASTING MID 40S FOR
HIGHS. IN OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AROUND SYRACUSE, ELKHART AND
MEADE, HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
MIN TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SAT MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH 21Z BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
FALL TO MVFR AS THE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH, BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL AT 25-35 KTS THROUGH
22Z IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND
SUBSIDING WINDS TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  51  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  50  19  53 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  27  50  22  53 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  27  52  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  48  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  50  25  52 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH



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