000
FXUS63 KDDC 241711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN