Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
130 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Dependent on the time frame for air mass recovery from yesterday`s
convection across the high plains southward into the panhandle of
Texas, thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas tonight into Tuesday as short range models
indicate a difluent southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Central Plains. The RAP13 and HRRR initialize well with the
surface low in extreme southwest Kansas and an attendant frontal
boundary extending northeast into north central Kansas and showing
both lifting northward across western Kansas through this evening.
A southeasterly upslope flow will redevelop across central and
much of southwest Kansas as a result, and in turn, draw moisture
back to the north raising surface dewpoints up into the lower and
mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. Heating of
the lower/mid levels will increase this afternoon as the
prevailing lower cloud deck continues to slowly scatter out,
allowing lower/mid level lapse rates to steepen. Depending on how
long this takes, thunderstorms will be possible toward early evening
as the cap weakens with the best chance for convection associated
with the frontal boundary as it lifts north. Short fuse model
soundings show SBCAPE values climbing in excess of 4000 J/KG
across south central and eastern southwest Kansas through early
this evening, increasing severe potential. Based on the
substantially high amount of CAPE, large hail will be the primary
threat with damaging winds also possible. Due to a modest amount
of vertical shear present, an isolated tornado threat closer to
the Oklahoma border does exist.

A few isolated storms may develop across eastern Colorado within
an upslope flow and move into west central Kansas later tonight
as an H5 vort maxima kicks northeast out of the Southern Rockies
into the Western High Plains. However, with less instability
available, the potential for severe storms will be limited with
damaging winds the main threat.

A prevailing low level south to southeasterly flow across western
Kansas tonight will help reinforce a moisture pool across the
area with surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s(F) to the
mid 60s(F). Look for lows generally in the 60s(F) toward daybreak
Tuesday with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas.
For Tuesday, warm air advection across the high plains will push
H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper 20s(C) across
southwest and much of central Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be
expected for highs Tuesday afternoon with near 90F possible in
extreme southwest Kansas. Similar high temperatures are likely
Wednesday and Thursday with little change to the general air mass
across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Little changes in the overall synoptic pattern in the coming days.
The models have been consistent will keeping Wednesday the likeliest
day to be dry and quite (no convection at least), however the rest
of the forecast looks fairly active with at least peak heating
dryline storms and waves exiting the the quasi-stationary western
upper trough. The warming trend will continue into mid week with
90s almost a certainty by wednesday. More clouds and precipitationmay
cool temperatures by late week with models showing a strong
shortwave into the plains. Overnight lows remain somewhat mild in
the mid to upper 50s through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are then expected to develop and move
northeast across central and portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting KHYS with brief periods of MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. There is less confidence of KDDC or even KGCK being
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue
through early Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light and variable
through this evening as a near stalled out frontal boundary situated
across north central into southwest Kansas begins to lift slowly
north. East to southeast winds around 5 to 15kt are expected to
develop later this evening as the frontal boundary lifts further


DDC  81  63  87  64 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  81  58  87  60 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  84  58  90  57 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  84  62  90  62 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  78  62  84  63 /  30  40  20  20
P28  79  67  86  67 /  40  50  30  30


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.