Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 032321
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The shortwave trough that passed south this morning will continue to
push away from the region. Some stratocumulus clouds developed with
surface dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s, some insolation,
and cold temperatures aloft (500mb temps -20 to -22C). The surface
trough axis tied to the upper level feature extended from near
Russel, KS to just south of Dodge City at 17z. This will continue
to push southeast, and by late afternoon some widely scattered
showers will likely develop ahead of it, but by the time they become
somewhat prevalent, they will be off into northern Oklahoma. Out
west, wind speeds will range 14 to 18 knots this afternoon before
taming back down to 8 to 11 knots after sunset. On Wednesday, the
opposite will be the case, with strongest north winds across the
eastern forecast area (east of Hwy 283), with midday to afternoon
winds 12 to 15 knots. 850mb temperatures will warm about 4 degrees
Celsius tomorrow, which will support surface temperatures in the
afternoon generally in the lower to mid 70s (with some upper 70s
farther south closer to the Oklahoma border).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The main excitement in the Long Term will be over Mother`s Day
weekend, when a significant Southwest Low will develop and drift
northeastward across the Four Corners region into the Rockies. There
is a rather high degree of confidence in this synoptic scale regime
over the upcoming weekend, but when it comes to the more important
subsynoptic scale features (timing, strength, evolution) that will
impact our weather, there is still a rather low degree of
confidence. The first day of potential (severe?) convection will be
Saturday when an initial jet streak/shortwave trough lifts out of
New Mexico into the Central High Plains. This would undoubtedly lead
to intense lower tropospheric development somewhere across eastern
Colorado southward into the western Texas Panhandle or far
northeastern New Mexico. While the leeside trough convergence would
be quite strong in this scenario, the dryline will not be all that
impressive given the fairly paltry low level moisture influx, at
least initially. Lee trough/dryline thunderstorms would likely
develop as capping is eroded due to mid tropospheric cooling late in
the day Saturday/Saturday evening, however, if this system slows
down just a little bit more in timing, then the dryline will most
likely remain convection-free. As a lead shortwave trough lifts
north-northeastward into eastern Colorado (at least as shown by the
ECMWF and GFS), the best lift and low level
convergence/frontogenesis will be across northeastern Colorado. On
paper, the best severe weather threat with this lead perturbation
would be northwest of our forecast area in that zone of
frontogenesis.

Should the system slow down just a bit more, keeping Saturday
convection-free, that would open up Sunday to a greater risk of
severe weather across a larger portion of western and southern
Kansas. By then, the sustained southerly flow from the Gulf of
Mexico should finally yield surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. All
ingredients would be in place for at least scattered severe
thunderstorms, if not numerous severe thunderstorms from mid
afternoon through the evening Sunday. Depending on the timing of the
ejection of the upper low, severe weather risk may stick around for
another diurnal cycle (Monday), most likely affecting the far
eastern zones (central/south central Kansas).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

An upper level ridge axis will slowly build across the Rockies
tonight as an upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains.
Late day afternoon clouds will give way to clear conditions after
sunset. Northwest winds will be at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  77  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  78  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  74  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert


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