Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172346
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

A few isolated surface based storms have developed in a narrow area
of surface moisture convergence in sw NE/nc KS early this
afternoon, supporting the NMM/ARW/RAP13/HRRR. Differences going
forward arise in east/southeastward development of the convection
this evening and beyond. A slow moving shortwave exiting the
Rockies into the high plains appears to one the lift mechanism for
expansion farther southeast later this evening. The setup looks to
be marginal sever at best, with storm becoming clustered, not
exactly a great setup for large hail. HRRR is not indicating
impressive storm outflow, which it generally does in the better
convective wind setups. However a brief window of opportunity
for thunderstorms north of the highway 96 corridor exists
beginning mid evening.

The issue of heat indices/apparent temperatures will complicate the
forecast as well Tuesday and possibly in the future days as well.
The combination of mid upper 60s surface dew points and highs around
100 degrees or warmer across central Kansas may lead to heat
advisory criteria being met. Tuesday looks like average confidence
with respect to meeting the criteria and have added Trego and Ellis
counties into the headlines for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Our region will be on the western periphery of the much higher
apparent temperatures/oppressive heat expected into the latter half
of the week. An excessive heat watch will be issued to the east of
our area, however we will start out with a heat advisory Tuesday and
assess the setup going forward as the confidence in our areas of KS
requiring excessive heat warnings is not as high. As of now the
blended forecast reduces the dew points each successive day,
which will have large impacts on the apparent temperature later in
the week. Overnight lows nevertheless remain very warm, in the
mid 70s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at all the southwest Kansas
terminals through this period. LLWS is expected at Garden City and
Dodge City and possibly at Liberal overnight. At Hays, there is
some potential for a thunderstorm cluster along the Nebraska
border to build south into that area around the 04z- 06z time
frame. Will carry VCTS at the terminal for now and monitor for
prevailing thunderstorm conditions if necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  99  71  99 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  99  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  72  99  71  99 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  71  99  73 101 /  50   0  10   0
P28  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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