Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday based on the
moisture profiles from the 18z NAM BUFR soundings. Ongoing
diurnally driven convection near GCK and DDC will dissipate by or
shortly after sunset. There will be another chance for convection
after 03z as an upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. At
this time given the latest NAM, RAP, and HRRR the probability for
convection after 03z at GCK, DDC, or HYS still appears small so will
not include mention of a prevailing group of convection in the 00z
tafs. Will place VCTS in the HYS tafs for several hours, mainly
between 04z and 08z. Prevailing winds will be south/southwest at
around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  71  99 /  30  10   0  10
GCK  67  96  70  98 /  30  10   0  10
EHA  66  95  68  98 /  30  10   0  20
LBL  66  96  71  98 /  30  10   0  10
HYS  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
P28  70  98  74  99 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert





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