000
FXUS63 KDDC 200827
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
327 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

As a surface cold front will becomes stationary today across south
central Kansas and western Oklahoma as a surface ridge will
builds across western Kansas. The gusty northwest winds behind
this front earlier this morning will fall back to around 10 mph
during the day as the ridge axis moves across western Kansas.
Cooler, more seasonal, temperatures can be expected this afternoon
given that the 850mb temperatures fall from the upper 20s at 00z
Wednesday to around 20C at 00z Thursday. Tonight the northeasterly
winds at 10 mph will gradually veer to the southeast towards
daybreak and given clear/mostly clear conditions expected am
favoring the cooler guidance for lows tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Thursday is still shaping up to be a warm, dry, and windy day. As
gusty south winds increase into the 15 to 25 mph range the
relative humidity will be falling back into the 13 to 25 percent
during the afternoon. At this time it appears the lower relative
humidity values will be most likely west and north of Garden City
so will be issuing a Fire Watch for this location on Thursday.

A period of wet weather will then be possible for western Kansas
over the weekend and early next week. An upper level trough/low
will exit the eastern Pacific and move into the western United
States where it will deepen late week into early this weekend. As
this upper low deepens a south southwesterly flow can be expected
across the Rockies and Western High Plains with tropical moisture
beginning to advect northward in this flow. Several upper waves
will also be embedded in this developing southwest flow which
bring improving chances for precipitation to western Kansas over
the weekend. Based on timing from the GFS and ECMWF of a few of
the more significant upper level waves the better chances for
widespread convection across western Kansas will be Saturday night
into Sunday and then again Sunday night into Monday. Periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall is starting to look more and more
likely for some areas of western Kansas from Saturday night
through early Monday. There will be chance for convection west of
a Garden City to Liberal area Friday night but at this time
confidence is not high if these storms will spread too far east
during the overnight hours.

As for temperatures...Temperatures late week are will rebound
back into the 90s and gusty south southeast winds can be expected
Thursday and Friday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the
Rockies. Over the weekend clouds and precipitation will aid in
keeping temperatures more seasonal. Highs on Saturday will range
mainly from 85 to near 90. On Sunday a cold front is forecast to
cross western Kansas which could result in temperatures late this
weekend climbing only into the 75 to near 85 degree range.

Early next week the upper level trough is still forecast be
located across the west/southwest United States and as more upper
waves rotate around the based of this system and move northeast
towards the Central Plains. This will result in a wet start to the
work week as another round of thunderstorms are expected across
western Kansas Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A cold front was quickly crossing western Kansas early tonight.
The RAP and HRRR were a little slow with timing based on 05z
verification and were also too weak with the winds behind this
front. Given these known issues with this frontal passage the
Garden City and Hays areas would have already had the wind shift
occur by 06z. The frontal passage at Dodge City and Liberal is
expected within the next hour. Behind this front a northwest winds
of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will be possible for
a couple of hours based on several observations in northwest
Kansas. These gusty winds will begin to subside after 09z
Wednesday and by 12z the winds across western Kansas are expected
to be in the 15 to 20 knot range. Northwest winds will continue to
decrease through the day on Wednesday and are expected to fall
back to around 10 knots after 21z Wednesday. VFR conditions can be
expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Elevated fire to critical weather conditions will return to
western Kansas on Thursday as gusty southeasterly winds develop
during the day and afternoon relative humidity values fall back
into 13 to 25 percent range. The lowest relative humidity values
Thursday afternoon currently appears to be west and north of
Garden City so will be issuing a fire weather watch for this
location Thursday afternoon. Any open burning should be avoided
due to the increasing winds and low humidity in and near this
watch area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  59  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  82  52  93  67 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  81  53  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  83  56  93  67 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  81  59  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
P28  89  67  95  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ043-061>063-074-075-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert