Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  77  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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