Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED LONG...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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