Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210556
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS DENSE FOG AND DENSE FREEZING FOG.
BUFKIT PLUMES AND WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND BOTH CORES
OF THE WRF ALL SHOW DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL 9 AM CST. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FOG EXTENT ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE ADVISORY, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO BE MORE
LIBERAL WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND LATER SHIFTS CAN TRIM DOWN IF NECESSARY.
THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TOWARDS MORNING NEAR PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE, BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MORE OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG RATHER
THAN DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S WEST WHERE THERE IS NO CLOUD COVER/FOG TO MID TO UPPER
30S EAST/SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS, SLIGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP MINS UP A BIT MORE.

TOMORROW:

OTHER THAN SOME MORNING FOG, FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXIMUMS FROM DODGE CITY TO STAFFORD AREAS WHERE LINGERING
CLOUDS/FOG WILL SLOW THE RATE OF HEATING JUST A BIT MORE. 40S HERE AND
50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET COMING ON SHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THIS PERIOD (MONDAY AND TUESDAY). THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (VERSUS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS), WHICH DOES NOT
FAVOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE STORM WILL ALSO NOT BE ALL THAT COLD ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL BE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AS THE 700MB COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, BUT AGAIN, CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA (MONDAY NIGHT). ONSET OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. A VERY TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL OCCUR IN THE 850-
700MB LAYER WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN FACT,
WE WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON TUESDAY TIME FRAME OF 25+ KNOTS.  WE HAVE BOOSTED
THE WIND GRIDS A FEW KNOTS WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS.

THE DEEP TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY MID-WEEK WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN TO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL FAVOR LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING AGAIN TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY, HOWEVER
CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH THE LEE TROUGH IN
PLACE (AND STRENGTHENING) WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.  IT IS
STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW THIS LATE-WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE,
BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MATURE TO OUR
NORTH, LEAVING OUR REGION DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIBYS BELOW 1 MILE WILL MOVE INTO THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INVADES FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY 21-23Z, WHICH SHOULD SHUNT THE LOW CLOUDINESS OFF
TO THE EAST, WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  45  35  52 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  27  50  34  51 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  27  57  35  51 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  31  51  35  53 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  30  48  35  50 /   0  10  20  10
P28  36  47  37  54 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH


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