Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  70  97  70  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  69  96  68  96 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  70  97  71  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0   0  20  10
P28  74  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke






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