398
FXUS63 KDDC 110400
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical mid July weather expected Friday, with afternoon
  temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and light winds.

- A cold front will arrive early in the weekend, providing a
  focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night
  into Saturday.

- Cooler air behind the cold front will reduce Saturday
  afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 80s.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday,
  before another cold front brings another cooldown on
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A fairly widespread strong/severe thunderstorm event is still on
track for late this afternoon and evening. Water vapor loop and RAP
objective analysis fields showed a low amplitude, yet strong
shortwave trough moving across northern Colorado and southern
Wyoming. The exit region of a 250mb jet streak (55-60 knot jet core)
was entering eastern Colorado and far western Kansas, marking the
leading edge of strongest forcing for ascent. At the surface, a
trough axis with fairly strong zone of convergence extended from
between Springfield, CO and Elkhart, KS north-northeastward to
between Leoti and Scott City, KS. This will most likely be the
initial zone of deep moist convection initiation sometime in the 20-
21Z time frame. SBCAPE in this region is around 3000 J/kg on a
surface parcel of mid 90s over lower to mid 60s dewpoint. Dewpoints
did not quite mix out as much as models earlier indicated, thus
greater surface-based instability supporting stronger convection.
Deep layer shear looks pretty good as well with 6km AGL winds around
30 knots from the west with 500m AGL winds SSW at 20 to 30 knots for
a shear magnitude of around 30 knots in this layer, which is
supportive of organized multicell and even some incipient supercell
structures before cold pools become dominant and upscale growth
ensues later this evening.

The 1630Z SPC Day One outlook of 10% "Hatched" area for significant
wind (defined as peak thunderstorm wind gusts of 75+ mph) looks
pretty good with intense downdraft potential given the fairly high
CAPE, Downdraft CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and the deep layer shear
supporting well-organized updrafts with fairly good potential for
strong mid-altitude radial convergence (MARC) radar signatures with
the strongest storms supporting 70 to 80 mph gusts. This is most
likely early on in the event before outflows really run amuk,
generally west of a Liberal to Dodge to Hays line and mainly prior
to 9 PM CDT (02Z).

Beyond tonight, the forecast has not changed all that much, as we
are still looking at a cold front pushing south over the weekend. A
pre-frontal trough will lead to northeasterly winds Friday
afternoon, but the air mass will still be quite warm supporting
highs well into the lower 90s, and a weak cap will support renewed
thunderstorm development in vicinity of this trough axis. The cooler
air upstream will not arrive until later Friday evening/night with
850mb temperatures dropping into the teens. This refreshing air mass
from up north will lead to a "cooler" Saturday with highs generally
in the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will climb back to around 90
by Sunday with similar temperatures Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Radar and satellite imagery at 04z showed a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) decaying over SW KS. Remaining rain showers and
convection are expected to be east of the airports or dissipated
by the beginning of this TAF period (06z Fri), followed by a
gradual removal of mid and high clouds through 12z Fri.
Excellent flying weather is expected daylight Friday, with
VFR/SKC and light winds generally less than 12 kts. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms with an expected cold front may hold
off until after 06z Sat, so kept this set of TAFs dry.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner