000
FXUS63 KDDC 131415
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
915 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a large
scale closed off upper level low dropping southeastward across
southern Canada into the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, an upper
level ridge of high pressure remains settled across the
Inter-mountain West. Near the surface, a weak cold front extends
from the Texas panhandle northeast into eastern Kansas. Ample
moisture remains across central and southwest Kansas with
surface dewpoints observed mainly in the 60s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A cold front passed through southwest Kansas overnight as an upper
level trough amplifies over the upper Midwest. A cluster of
thunderstorms developed last evening over eastern Colorado and
progressed into western Kansas overnight before dissipating.
For today, the cold front will be to the south of Kansas, and any
thunderstorms should develop over the panhandles in the afternoon,
possibly clipping the southwest corner of Kansas. Today will be
cooler with highs mainly in the upper 80s. Mostly tranquil weather
can be expected tonight; however, there is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms toward morning along the Interstate 70
corridor and into west central Kansas as the next cold front
arrives. This front is a result of a strong shortwave trough
moving south out of Canada into the aforementioned upper Midwest
upper level low. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight,
with lows in the upper 60s to near 70F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

The well advertised cold upper trough will continue to swing
southward from the Great Lakes and into the Central Plains into
Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will continue into Monday, with
mainly rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into Tuesday. Upper
level shortwave energy on the west side of the trough, will move
across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and will bring the best
chances for rainfall across western Kansas. Rain chances begin to
wain Thursday, with a warming trend, as the wave moves east. Another
chance for thunderstorms begins again by next Weekend with a
northern branch upper level trough.

For Monday, the best chances for thunderstorms are across far
southwestern Kansas, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. For
Tuesday, rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm increase, with
lots of clouds and highs only in the mid 70s. Wednesday looks to be
coolest with cloudy skies and rain showers becoming likely, with
highs only in the mid to upper 60s. A warming trend then begins
again Thursday into the Weekend, with highs warming from the 70s
back to around 90. Overnight lows through this extended period will
be mainly in the 50s, then warming back to the 60s by the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR conditions will continue into tonight. As a surface ridge of
high pressure moves across western Kansas, light north to
northeast winds will become easterly, then after 00Z become light
and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  88  58 /  10  20  30  30
GCK  88  67  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  87  67  87  60 /  20  30  30  50
LBL  88  67  88  61 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  88  67  86  59 /  10  10  20  20
P28  90  70  91  60 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse