Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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205
FXUS63 KDDC 230534
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1134 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Winds at around 10 mph will gradually shift to the south
southwest late tonight as a trough of low pressure at the surface
begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. Given a westerly
component to the winds overnight initially am leaning towards
temperatures slightly warmer than what the 12z guidance suggested
in far western Kansas. East of Dodge City will favor undercutting
guidance here based on the forecast location of the surface ridge
axis. Lows overnight will be mainly in the mid 20s.

A surface trough of low pressure will continue to develop across
eastern Colorado on Monday as the next upper level system moves
into the four corners region and an upper ridge axis quickly moves
east across the Central Plains. As a surface warm front lifts
northeast across western Kansas during the day on Monday the 850
mb temperatures warm near 10C between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday
in southwest Kansas. This continues to support temperatures
rebounding back into the 60 to 65 degree range for much of
southwest Kansas. In north central and south central Kansas the
highs will climb into the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

On Tuesday the surface warm front will be located in north
central Kansas as the upper level system, located in the southwest
United States earlier today, exits the Rockies and crosses the
Central Plains. As this upper level system lifts northeast into
Nebraska towards mid day on Tuesday a surface cold front will
cross western Kansas. Behind this cold front gusty northwest winds
of at 20 to 30 mph will develop as some cooler air begins to
return. At this time based on the timing of the cold front and the
cold air advection forecast by the NAM and GFS behind this surface
boundary during the afternoon the highs for portions of western
Kansas will occur early in the day with falling afternoon
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday not only will occur early but also
are expected to be roughly 15 to near 20 degrees cooler than the
highs on Monday for much of western Kansas. Across south central
Kansas the cool down will be less dramatic given the later timing
of the cold frontal passage.

There will also be a slight chance for some snow Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. At this time the better chances for
measurable snowfall will occur across northern Kansas early
Tuesday night but some minor, less than an inch, accumulations can
not be completely ruled out in west central Kansas and near the
I-70 corridor in north central Kansas.

For areas that may still be cleaning up from the recent ice storm
the gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph late Tuesday may result
in some light damage of the remaining weakened trees or lingering
dangling broken tree limbs.

Wednesday still appears to be the coldest day of the work week as
30 to 40 mph north winds advect colder air into western Kansas.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 30s to near 45 degrees
and lows Wednesday night are expected to fall back into the teens
for many areas in western Kansas. Dry and more seasonal
temperatures can be expected from Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

VFR flight category will continue through the period with wind
speeds being the only element of interest. Wind speeds will
increase as a lee trough strengthens later on Monday. Expect wind
speeds to peak at around 16 to 20 knots sustained from late
morning through mid afternoon at GCK, DDC, and HYS. Winds will
settle back down to around 9 to 12 knots around sunset. An intense
low level jet of west-southwest winds will develop overnight
tomorrow night leading to some low level wind shear starting right
at the end of this forecast period (not included in this 06Z TAF
cycle)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  60  37  51 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  25  61  34  48 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  28  65  35  49 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  27  66  35  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  25  55  33  46 /   0   0   0  10
P28  29  58  36  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid



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