000
FXUS63 KDDC 031110
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

The 00z upper air analysis showed a 120 knot jet at 250 millibars
extending from the northern Great Basin over the central High Plains
into Missouri and Arkansas. At the 500 millibar level, strong west
northwesterly flow extended across the lower 48 states. An upper
level low pressure system over northern Idaho was in the base of an
east-west oriented upper trough. This system was sagging southward
through the Pacific northwest as evident in the water vapor imagery
and strong height falls along the west coast. At the surface, a cold
front extended from the upper Midwest into far northern Nebraska
back into western Wyoming. this front was the leading edge of some
very cold Canadian air as temperatures over the northern plains were
in the teens and lower 20s early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Low level moisture was slowly advecting northward into south central
and southeast Kansas early this morning. This was manifesting itself
as areas of locally dense fog across north central Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model is
suggesting that fog could be developing into the Medicine Lodge and
Pratt areas by around sunrise and continue into this morning before
burning off. Will add some areas of locally dense fog to the gridded
forecast for a few hours this morning

The upper low and trough over the northern Rockies will continue to
dig south and southeast today. All of the 00z models have slowed the
passage of the front across western Kansas from previous runs. Ahead
of the front, westerly winds will develop today across far southwest
Kansas. This will likely help boost temperatures to near or around
70 in locations from Johnson and Elkhart to around Liberal. Have
raised high temperatures several degrees in that area as well as a
few degrees more around Garden City and Dodge City. With less of a
downslope component expected over central and south central Kansas,
highs should top out in the low to mid 60s.

The cold front should be moving to a position along I-70 by sunset
and then continuing south through the remainder of south central and
southwest Kansas by around or shortly after midnight. Gusty north
winds will develop tonight and there could be a period of time
behind the front that winds are approaching or meeting advisory
criteria. For now will let the next shift assess any need for wind
headlines tonight. Colder air and stratus will push south across
western Kansas overnight. Temperatures should range from around 20
over west central and far southwest Kansas to the mid 20s over south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough moving east
across the Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday while a series
of H5 vort maxes eject out of the trough axis northeast across the
Western High Plains. This will set up the chance for periods of
light precip across portions of western Kansas late Wednesday night
into Thursday. As the elongated upper level trough approaches, an
upper level jet exiting the trough axis will intensify as it climbs
northeast across the Western High Plains reaching speeds in excess
of 130kt by early Thursday morning. Additionally, increased H7
frontogenesis banding is noted migrating across western Kansas
during this same general time frame. Meanwhile, GFS/ECMWF model
soundings show mid/upper level moisture advection into western
Kansas with profiles saturating by early to mid morning Thursday.
Due to this, periods of light snow will be possible across west
central and southwest Kansas late Wednesday night with those
chances spreading eastward into central Kansas Thursday. However,
significant snow accumulations are not expected with model soundings
indicating pw values well under half an inch. Drier conditions are
expected Friday through Saturday afternoon as the upper level wave
opens up and kicks off to the east while another upper level trough
begins to drop south across the Pacific Northwest early in the
weekend.

Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday as cold air surges
southward into western Kansas in wake of a strong cold front pushing
across the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. The NAM/GFS show the
H85 0C isotherm dipping south into the Texas panhandle by mid day
Wednesday while extending back to the northeast into south central
Kansas. As a result, highs are expected to be reached earlier in the
day ranging from the 20s(F) across west central Kansas to the 30s(F)
in south central Kansas. Temperatures will be frigid Thursday and
Friday as the arctic air mass settles into western Kansas with H85
temperatures reaching as low as 15C below. Look for highs only up
into the teens(F) and 20s(F) Thursday and Friday with a gradual
warming trend going into the weekend as the cold air mass begins to
slowly erode.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early this
evening. MVFR cigs will then be possible generally after 02Z due
to low level stratus developing along and behind a cold front as
it moves south across western Kansas tonight. Light and variable
winds early this morning will become more westerly 10 to 20kt
across southwest Kansas by early this afternoon as a lee side
trough edges slowly eastward across the area. However, winds are
expected to remain light and variable in the vicinity of KHYS.
Winds will then become northerly 20 to 30kt late this evening as
the aforementioned cold front pushes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  23  31  10 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  67  21  29   9 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  68  20  29  11 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  71  23  31  12 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  62  21  31  10 /   0   0   0  20
P28  66  27  37  16 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson