Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202310
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Mostly clear skies will continue this evening as a cold front
continues to slowly sag southward into the Southern Plains. East
to northeast winds will be observed behind this front, becoming
breezy at times. Low level moisture will increase overnight
leading to a thick deck of stratus to form by sunrise tomorrow. As
of now, these clouds look to remain above the surface with no
reduced visibility. This deck of stratus will continue through
tomorrow with breezy conditions. As for temperatures, lows tonight
look to range from the lower 40s north to lower 50s south.
Temperatures tomorrow are only expected to rise a few degrees due
to ample cloud cover. Highs will generally be in the low to mid
50s with the exception of along the KS/OK border where around 60
degrees will be found.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Mostly cloudy skies are expected through mid week as upslope flow
continues across western Kansas. Winds will initially be from the
east Tuesday night, then shift to more of a southeast direction
Wednesday. There will be a slight chance of light rain or drizzle
Wednesday through Thursday morning, but this will be dependent on
how thick the stratus deck is. Meanwhile, a large upper level low
will move into the Desert Southwest Wednesday then eastward into
the Rockies Thursday. This will enhance lift across western Kansas
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Thunderstorms look to
develop by late afternoon Thursday, first across far western
Kansas, then spread eastward Thursday evening into the overnight
period. These thunderstorms should move out of the area by Friday
morning. However, more precipitation is anticipated Friday into
Friday night as moisture wraps around this storm system. Strong
winds will also be a factor with this system with southerly winds
Thursday shifting to a northerly direction Friday into Friday
night. Another storm system looks to move into the area by early
next week but timing and confidence is low at this time. As for
temperatures, highs Wednesday look to generally be in the 50s with
the exception of along the KS/CO border where lower 60s may be
found. We see one day of highs in the 70s Thursday before dipping
into the 60s for the remainder of the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue overnight as
a surface boundary remains nearly stationary over the Texas
Panhandle and northern Oklahoma. Warm moist air will be lifted
up and over this frontal boundary late tonight and during the day
on Tuesday which will result in increasing clouds across western
Kansas. Model soundings indicating this moisture and lift will
occur in the 1500ft to 3500 ft AGL level. Low VFR ceilings are
initially expected to develop late tonight but these ceilings will
lower into the MVFR category early Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  37  54 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  43  58  36  59 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  45  66  38  65 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  46  65  37  61 /   0  10  20  10
HYS  43  53  35  52 /  10  10  30  10
P28  51  65  41  55 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert



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