000
FXUS63 KDDC 070525
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level ridge of high pressure tracking eastward across the Central
Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave trough is moving
southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, an area
of low pressure has developed across eastern Colorado while moisture
continues to edge slowly northward into western Kansas with surface
dewpoints mainly in the 30s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning.  This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also.  Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.

Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development.  For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night.  Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.

Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday.  The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures.  Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.

A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.

A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR condtions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday
afternoon. As for winds, southerly winds of 5 to 15kt will persist
overnight as surface low pressure remains anchored across eastern
Colorado. However, winds will become northerly 20 to 30kt by early
Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes southeastward across
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  58  28  44 /   0  10  60  20
GCK  38  56  28  49 /   0  20  50  10
EHA  42  62  31  45 /   0  20  60  10
LBL  40  63  30  44 /   0  20  60  20
HYS  35  51  26  46 /   0  20  40  10
P28  35  60  29  43 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson