Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271804
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA
REVEALS A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A WEAK CLOSED 700-500-HPA CYCLONE SEEN OVER
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER WINDS VIA A 130-KT
JET STREAK EXISTING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THE CLOSED
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO FILL AND LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH MUCH DRIER/COLDER AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPECIFICALLY, DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. NONETHELESS...A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 700-600-HPA LAYER IS PRODUCING A BELT OF LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS PER LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VERY QUIET REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS.  OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WITHIN THE
FRONTOGENTIC ZONE NEAR MEDICINE LODGE EARLY THIS MORNING, MOST OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE.  THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED BY LATE
MORNING AND PERSITING THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, DESPITE STRONG
SOLAR INSOLATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, 850-HPA TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EXPECTED. FURTHER, COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, A CLEAR SKY,
AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO 15
ABOVE ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT AT THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
SATURATED BEHIND THIS FRONT INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID WEEK AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO A LOW AND EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 30S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BELOW ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS
INCREASING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK
LEE TROUGHING BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  14  40  17  27 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  11  38  15  23 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  16  38  17  27 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  12  40  18  29 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  11  38  17  22 /   0   0   0  30
P28  16  42  21  34 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH


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