000
FXUS63 KDDC 251911
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN