Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200645
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1245 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Freezing drizzle becoming more widespread, with light icing
occurring here at Dodge City. Increased coverage in the grids for
the next several hours, and an advisory will likely be required.
Additionally, convective rain showers with lightning are entering
Clark county, with more upstream in Beaver county, Oklahoma. These
showers will be entering a freezing rain environment, with some
icing potential from Ashland to Greensburg to Coldwater in the
short term. Adjusted grids, and again an advisory may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Finally a bit more interesting with regards to precipitation this
evening. After dusting off the radar scope, we have tracked
several scattered thunderstorms across mainly Barber and Pratt
counties, producing plenty of lightning and mainly brief downpours
of freezing rain and sleet. Vast majority of the activity has
been, and will continue to be, well east of us in central Kansas.
NAM/HRRR solutions show further convective development toward
5-6 AM Tuesday, but trends strongly suggest all of this action
will remain in Wichita`s CWA. Numerous snow showers are also in
progress across eastern Colorado and NW Kansas, which will miss
SW KS. So, effectively, SW KS is again being dryslotted with
badly-needed moisture on either side of us. Some areas of freezing
drizzle will remain possible through sunrise, mainly east of
US 283, as shown by 00z NAM. Will need to monitor for minor icing
overnight. Have dropped low temperatures Tuesday morning well down
into the teens, with cold advection expected to intensify toward
sunrise with increasing north winds. Incoming cold air
reinforcement is quite cold (currently 4 degrees at Akron,
Colorado) so still may not be cold enough. Expect widespread
stratus through morning with north winds gusting over 30 mph at
times. Wind chill indices will fall to near zero at sunrise.

Tuesday...It is still winter, and it will feel like it. Strong
cold/dry advection will continue all day, with north winds of
20-30 mph in the morning slowly relaxing during the afternoon.
Widespread low clouds will gradually erode during the morning
hours, as falling surface dewpoints evaporate the stratus. Near
full sunshine is expected by afternoon, so allowed for some
temperature recovery into the 30s. This is a fair bit below par
for February 20th (normal high is near 50).

Tonight...Mostly clear and cold. Surface high of 1030 mb near
Rapid City at 6 pm strengthens to a 1040 mb high in NE Nebraska
by sunrise Wednesday. As such, cold/dry advection will continue
on NE winds of 10-20 mph, with most locations falling into the
5-15 degree range Wednesday morning. With winds remaining
elevated, temperatures should be kept from falling any lower, but
the very dry ground will be increasing radiational cooling,
trying to counter this.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An upper level trough will establish itself early in the week
across the western United States and then this upper trough will
move very little through late week. Over the next 5 days several
upper level waves will rotate around this upper level Western
United States trough and as each of these disturbances move from
the base of the upper trough and out into the central plains mid
to late week there will be a slight chance for some light
precipitation across south central and possibly even portions of
southwest Kansas. The chance for precipitation will be improving
late week and over the weekend as models hint at better moisture
and lift across western Kansas. This lift will be occurring north
of a surface boundary that will be located across the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma and ahead of the Western United States
upper level trough as it moves east towards the Central Rockies.
This will not only bring some improving chances for precipitation
late week and over the weekend period but also bring some warmer
temperatures back to western Kansas.

For temperatures this week...temperatures are expected to stay on
the cool side given the cooler air that will be filtering into
western Kansas behind the cold front tonight and Monday is
currently forecast to remain in place through at Thursday. Periods
of cloudy skies occurring each day will also be possible as a
series of upper level waves cross the Western High Plains. A
gradual warming trend will begin to occur Friday and continue over
the weekend as a surface warm front lifts north across Kansas.
Highs are expected to rebound from the 30s and 40s on Thursday to
the 50s and 60s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Stratus will continue to spread westward for the next several
hours, with MVFR cigs expected at all terminals through 12z Tue.
Areas of BR/freezing drizzle are expected primarily east of DDC
and south of HYS, also through 12z. Only made a token mention of
BR at DDC/HYS with low confidence of drizzle occurring at either
airport. GCK/LBL will remain dry. North winds will increase to
17-27 kts by 12z Tue, as cold air is reinforced across SW KS.
Stratus will gradually erode Tuesday morning, with VFR/SKC and
diminishing NE winds expected after 18z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17  31   7  29 /  20  10   0  20
GCK  14  31   8  30 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  27  40  13  30 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  33  43  12  30 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  15  27   9  30 /  20   0   0  10
P28  27  33  14  31 /  30  10   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner


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