000
FXUS63 KDDC 222043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS IT IS GETTING PHASED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THEY DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR IS STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WORKING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST, ALBEIT WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE. AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
STABLE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S IN
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
COULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED OFF LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, NOT TO
MENTION A POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, UPSLOPE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BETTER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALONG WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY THE MID 80S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW MVFR
CIGS TO GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY BY 10Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  72  58  81 /  10  20  40  30
GCK  50  71  58  83 /  10  20  30  40
EHA  52  76  59  88 /  10  30  30  40
LBL  53  74  60  87 /  10  30  30  40
HYS  47  71  56  77 /  10  20  40  40
P28  54  73  59  78 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD