Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291733 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Atmosphere slowly recovering once again early this afternoon,
after last night`s MCS. Easterly component to surface winds
maintaining dewpoints in the 60s, even as far west as eastern
Colorado. Still, airmass is cooler today, which will reduce CAPE
values. Scattered thunderstorms expected to redevelop this afternoon
across eastern Colorado and SW KS, mainly west of Dodge City. The
severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Healthy NW flow aloft
persists, and with easterly boundary layer flow, bulk shear is
sufficient for marginally severe hail/wind. As expected,
temperatures remaining well below normal this afternoon courtesy of
clouds and easterly winds. NAM swings an additional shortwave
embedded in the NW flow through SW KS overnight, with another round
of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Increased pop grids some for
this expectation. Expecting this round of rain to be wrapping up
across the SE zones around sunrise Saturday, with low stratus clouds
covering much of SW KS.

Saturday...Warmer, but still several degrees below normal for late
July. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s at Hays to
the mid 90s at Liberal. Kept isolated showers/thunder in the grids
for the SE 1/2 of the CWA, but coverage appears minimal and most
outdoor activities will be unaffected. Expect SE winds to prevail
Saturday afternoon at 15-25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A chance of thunderstorms will continue across central Kansas
Saturday with partly cloudy skies expected elsewhere. A drier
weather pattern emerges Sunday into the early part of next week as
the upper level high shifts more north and eastward towards the
Plains. Winds shift to more of a southerly direction this weekend
into early parts of next week as a trough of low pressure develops
across eastern Colorado. Precipitation chances then look to
increase towards the later part of next week as the upper level
high shifts back west placing the Central High Plains under
northwest flow aloft. A series of disturbances moving down through
this flow may move into the area. As for temperatures, highs creep
up from around 90 degrees Saturday into the upper 90s by late
weekend into the early part of next week. Highs then decrease to
the low to mid 90s by the late part of next week. Lows look to
generally be around 70 degrees.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Broken clouds and isolated rain showers early this afternoon.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
redevelop this afternoon. Model convective/QPF is quite varied, so
kept TEMPO groups out of the 18z TAFs, and included only VCTS/CB
or VCSH for now. Another weak shortwave in NW flow aloft
forecasted to produce another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the 06-12z Sat timeframe, best shown by the
12z NAM. After this second round of convection, consensus of short
term models suggests a round of IFR stratus near sunrise Saturday.
Lowered cigs to near 500 ft AGL for DDC/GCK around 12z Sat.


DDC  85  65  89  70 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  84  64  89  68 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  89  65  95  68 /  30  30  20  10
LBL  90  67  96  69 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  83  65  87  68 /  30  30  20  30
P28  86  69  91  72 /  30  50  30  30


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.