Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242049
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Surface troughing was allowing for some low level moisture
return through the panhandles and into extreme southwest Kansas
this afternoon. Even a couple of showers had popped up in
the Oklahoma Panhandle. Upper level ridging over the southern and
central plains will gradually shift back to the west over the
Rockies over the next several days. Meanwhile, an upper level
disturbance will move over the ridge to the north of Kansas by
Wednesday morning, helping to push a cold front through Kansas
Wednesday night. Surface high pressure in the wake of the front
will build across the central plains Thursday and Friday before
weakening.The upper level ridge will shift even farther west by
the weekend, with northwesterly mid to high level flow across the
plains and Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

It`s not out of the question that a shower could develop near
Liberal or Hugoton before the afternoon is over and any activity
that does develop should quickly dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating given the lack of upper level support. With weak
lee troughing and upper level ridging, temperatures should rise
again through Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 90s
after lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Given the absence of
surface fronts and presence of upper level ridging, precipitation
is not expected on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The warmest day will be ahead of the front on Wednesday when
temperatures could meet or exceed 100 agrees. There is a
chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday along the front.
Thursday and maybe even Friday should be dry as surface
high pressure builds in. The gridded forecast indicated
small chances for storms along the Oklahoma state line
close to the front on Thursday but this may end up being
father south near the front. Temperatures will be much cooler by
Thursday with highs in the 80s. Temperatures will remain cooler
for the weekend with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. There is a lot
of uncertainty for the weekend given the northwesterly flow at
mid and upper levels, which sometimes can lead to nocturnal
thunderstorm activity across western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A weak surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies
through the period, resulting in south winds, the strongest
of which will be in the daytime. Upper level ridging and
lack of low level fronts will preclude thunderstorms activity.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  98  75 100 /  10  10  10  30
GCK  69  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  68  96  72  89 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  70  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  71  98  76  98 /  10  10  20  30
P28  73  98  76 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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