Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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907
FXUS63 KDDC 311700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Models this morning appear to be in decent agreement with the
upper level trough/deformation zone slowly sliding into western
Kansas today. Moisture and lift today will be present ahead of
this slow moving system so unable to rule out the chance for some
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across all of western
Kansas. The area appearing a little more favorable for this
convection later this afternoon and early tonight will be north
and northeast of Dodge City. This will be near a cold front that
will be approaching the area from the northwest during the
afternoon. Also this area will also be located near the left exit
region of a 50kt 250mb jet. Once again 0-6km shear will be less
than 20 knots and mid level lapse rates are forecast to be between
6 and 7.5C/km. Severe weather is not anticipated today but given
the high precipitable water and tropical feed still lingering
across the Southern and Central Plains these storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall once again.

The cold front will move into southwest Kansas overnight as the
upper level trough crosses southwest Kansas. Precipitation chances
are expected to taper off from northeast to southwest as this cold
front and upper level wave passes. Based on the latest timing of
the GFS and NAM it would appear that by 12z Thursday the chance
for precipitation will be over for locations along and northeast
of a Garden City to Dodge City line. Southwest of this line a few
showers will still be possible early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably cool given based on
900mb to 850mb temperatures, cloud cover, and precipitation
chances.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Any lingering precipitation near the Oklahoma border will end by
late morning on Thursday and low clouds will give way to a few
breaks of sun during the afternoon. Despite the sun returning
Thursday afternoon the highs are expected to climb back only into
the upper 70s to lower 80s based on 00z Friday 850mb temperatures.
Light southeast winds and some clear conditions Thursday night
favor undercutting the cooler guidance for lows.

On Friday an upper level ridge will exit the Rockies and cross
the Central High Plains as an upper low begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest. Southerly winds and warmer temperatures will
return Friday afternoon with temperatures rebounding back at least
into the low to mid 80s.

By Friday night the upper ridge will move into the Mississippi
Valley as the upper level low/trough over the west coast begins to
slowly move east. Over the Central Plains an weak upper level
disturbance embedded in the southwest flow that will be developing
between these two systems is forecast to move across western
Kansas. Improving forcing along the surface lee trough in eastern
Colorado ahead of this upper wave will give rise to some scattered
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Some of these storms could move
east northeast into western Kansas Friday night so will continue
to favor keeping small chances for overnight convection in western
Kansas.

The warming trend will continue over the weekend into early next
week as the surface trough of low pressure deepens along the lee
of the Rockies as the west coast upper level trough approaches the
Central Plains. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will
return to western Kansas early next week given the forecast late
day instability and location of a surface boundary as upper level
disturbances crosses the Central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Expect scattered TSRA to redevelop in a very moist atmosphere
through this afternoon. NAM/HRRR models suggest the best chance
of direct convective impacts will be at HYS, where a convective
TEMPO group was included. Coverage will be much more scattered
elsewhere, and only mentioned VCTS/CB this afternoon. Light NE
surface winds will prevail outside of convection. Moist upslope
E/NE flow will persist overnight, with high confidence of degraded
flying conditions developing in stratus/BR/fog beginning by 06z
Thu. TEMPO groups for fog included at HYS/DDC where impacts will
be greatest and IFR/LIFR is likely. Drier air will keep cigs/vis
higher at HYS Thursday morning. E/NE winds near 10 kts and
diminishing stratocumulus expected mid morning Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  61  78  59 /  50  30  20  10
GCK  77  60  79  61 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  78  62  78  61 /  40  40  30  20
LBL  78  64  78  62 /  60  50  30  20
HYS  77  58  78  57 /  40  20  10   0
P28  81  64  81  59 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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