Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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137
FXUS63 KDDC 252001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Higher surface dew points will be gradually streaming north from the
southern Plains today through tomorrow. Both days, high plains
convection will be forming over central Colorado, and feeding into
the instability/CAPE axis into western Kansas late in the day. The
latest HRRR and 4 km NestedNAM drive clusters of convection through
the I-70 corridor from around 2 to 4 UTC this evening, tying into
the northern periphery of the low level moisture advection  wind
field convergence along the trailing edge of a weak northern Plains
cold front. These storms are already forming across northeast
Colorado. Stratus clouds may develop across central Kansas behind
this boundary toward the late overnight hours and the SREF
probabilities indicate, however the boundary will wash out with
rapid warming and a return to light easterly surface winds. Lee side
toughing develops again on Friday, with much higher low level
moisture to work with farther west. The NAM focuses another area of
convection near the best surface convergence over north CO and
driving a meso low across nw KS late Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

High surface pressure will be anchored over the northern Rockies
through the southern Plains.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms may
linger behind the boundary into Saturday morning, however
organized convection opportunity appear to shut down late Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Low ceilings are not expected given the very dry boundary layer
across the region through this evening, and the prevailing category
will be VFR. A cluster of thunderstorms may quickly move though the
northern counties very early evening timeframe with a brief gusty
wind and hail threat. After that, lower ceilings in the MVFR
category may develop after about 9 z, lasting through around
sunrise Friday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  59  76 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  55  80  57  75 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  55  81  55  77 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  56  82  57  79 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  57  78  58  73 /  40  10  30  30
P28  60  84  63  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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