Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260517
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. I BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS A WARM PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON THIS DAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY, AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 10-12 KNOTS BY 12Z AND THEN SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO BY MID MORNING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  34  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD


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