000
FXUS63 KDDC 110812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2013

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

Looking at the h5 flow from the NAM, ECMWF and GFS models, western
Kansas will be under a west to northwest flow regime today and
tonight.  At the surface, a cold front passed through to the south
early this morning, and high pressure was building in from the
north.  Today will be considerably colder than yesterday.  However,
I did bump up forecast highs for today by 1 or 2 degrees, especially
in the southern forecast areas near the Oklahoma border.  All MOS
guidance pushed temps up, and we line up better with WFO neighbors
to the south.  There will be plenty of sunshine today, and winds
will be northerly at 5 to 15 mph, bringing in some cold air.

Tonight will see the surface high slip off to the southeast, with
winds returning to the southerly direction, but not too strong.
Winds tonight should be in the 10 to 15 mph range.  A few high
cirrus clouds will slip into the far west zones near the Colorado
border, but should not be thick enough to have an influence on
minimum temperatures.  I did not change the forecast mins for
tonight, ranging from 12F-13F degrees in the Hays and Wakeeney areas
to 17F-18F degrees in the Elkhart and Liberal areas. A trough in
eastern Colorado will aid in keeping temperatures in southwest
sections near Morton County a little elevated tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

A wave will move across Kansas Friday, however the region will be on
the wrong side of the jet and in isentropic downglide/subsidence. Evolution
of deterministic runs over the last few nights supports this. Pops will
remain aob 14 percent. The rest of the forecast is northwesterly flow
aloft with a low level weak warm air advection pattern in place. Temperatures
will trend to near or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

As weak upper level and lower level high pressure systems continue
to cover most of western Kansas, VFR flight conditions will
prevail. Very few clouds are anticipated, and winds will be light
from a north to northwesterly direction.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  13  48  23 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  13  48  20 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  33  18  51  22 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  31  14  48  29 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  26  12  49  21 /   0   0   0  10
P28  28  14  50  24 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke