Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1133 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Weak shortwave generating scattered sprinkles and light rain
showers across the eastern CWA at midday. Any light rain and
associated clouds will this disturbance will diminish this
afternoon. Moisture advection has been notable today, with
surface dewpoints well into the 30s (even 40 currently here at
WFO Dodge City). S/SE boundary layer flow will maintain this
moisture supply through tonight, with high confidence of stratus
and/or fog developing after midnight. Low ceilings and reduced
visibility will develop first across eastern zones, and expand
westward through sunrise Thursday. Included areas of fog in the
grids after midnight, with the exception of the far SW zones.
Visibility near 1/4 mile is possible, especially NE zones, and a
dense fog advisory may be required. Drizzle is not expected, and
most areas with fog are expected to remain above freezing. With
high dewpoints, temperatures will struggle to fall tonight, and
remain well above normal. Warmed lows Thursday morning well into
the 30s, with the exception of 20s far west. SE zones will hold
near 40 degrees overnight.

Thursday...Fog and stratus will persist well into the morning.
Models are suggesting low ceilings/visibility may be slow to
erode, and this will have an implication on temperatures.
Expecting a slow erosion from west to east, and forecasted highs
in the 40s north and 50s south. Upper low near Hays Thursday
morning will move to near Kansas City by 6 pm, allowing ridging to
build along the CO/KS border by afternoon. Most pleasant
conditions (the most sunshine and mildest temperatures) will be
found across the western/SW counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

On Thursday an upper low/trough will move east across Kansas and
Oklahoma as our next in a series of upper level waves exits the
eastern Pacific and begins to cross Oregon and California.
Improving westerly down slope flow during the day will result in
deepening the surface lee trough over eastern Colorado. 850mb to
750mb temperatures do warm several degrees from 00z Thursday to
00z Friday, however given the expected stratus and fog the latest
guidance with highs in the mid 40s may not be too far off in north
central Kansas. Across western Kansas the highs on Thursday may
end up climbing into the low to mid 50s which are a little warmer
than the current forecast.

The next/second upper level wave is forecast to cross the central
Plains on Friday and as it does a surface boundary/weak warm front
will lift north across western Kansas. Ahead of this warm front
there will be moisture and warm air advection, however any
precipitation that may develop Friday night north of this warm
front will be near and north of I-70

Our third and stronger upper level wave will then take air at the
Central and Southern Plains late this weekend. This mornings model
run from the GFS and ECMWF continue to focus the better lift north
of this upper level system near the Oklahoma border Saturday night
into early Sunday. Temperature profiles still favoring mainly rain
at the onset of precipitation Saturday night with a wintry mix
becoming possible after midnight as the precipitation begins to
taper off from west to east.

Only question with this weekend system is how far north this
precipitation will spread into western and central Kansas. GFS
keeps this system further north than the ECMWF and at this time
confidence is not high on which one is more correct. If we follow
the further north solution then there will be a chance for rain or
snow as far north as Garden City, Ness City and La Crosse. Given
the low confidence on the track of this system over the weekend
will stay close to the previous forecast for precipitation
chances. Also given the uncertainty on the track it is too early
to tell how much precipitation will fall as rain or snow.

The weekend system still looks progressive so the precipitation
that does develop Saturday night should quickly shift east early
Sunday. An upper level ridge axis will then quickly move east
across the central Rockies and with a westerly down slope flow
developing the latest guidance with highs climbing back into the
50s appears reasonable.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Main concern over the next 24 hours will be the development of low
clouds and fog for DDC, GCK, and HYS. VFR continues through 8Z.
After which time low stratus and fog will degrade flight
categories with IFR if not LIFR conditions from 8Z on. Confidence
is highest in the tempo groups for HYS and DDC with least impact
at GCK.


DDC  52  37  49  33 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  50  31  47  28 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  53  29  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  34  54  29 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  37  45  33 /  10  10  10  10
P28  52  39  53  35 /  20  10  10  10




LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.