Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031110
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
800MB TO 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF GCK. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORING WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BY MID DAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT



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