Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TONIGHT:

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE/MIX OUT WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND LIFT IS ACROSS
NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS ROUGHLY FROM JETMORE TO MED LODGE
AND POINTS NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY
FOR THE AM.

TOMORROW:

NEXT CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOMORROW.
ALL THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP INTO COLORADO, SO
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST
AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
SHOW AN INITIAL SHOT OF WEAK 850 MILLIBAR COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN
THE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF AS LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF KANSAS
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. LATER IN
THE WEEK, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS AND GEM ARE BRINGING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER
SOUTH. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS WANT
TO HOLD ON TO THE STRATUS LONGER WITH NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, BUT FEEL
THIS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, PARTICULARLY LOOKING AT VIS SAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
20-30 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  35  51  28 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  50  33  50  25 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  57  33  50  27 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  51  34  52  28 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  48  35  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
P28  47  38  52  30 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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