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FXUS63 KDDC 261946
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Early this afternoon, northwest flow aloft was occurring across
western Kansas. There was a jet streak within this flow aloft
extending from South Dakota into northern Missouri, and this
perturbation was pushing southeast. A weak frontal push at the
surface could be identified in the observations at 18z, and GOES-16
visible satellite confirmed growing cumulus field along this
boundary across southwest Nebraska. At 1830z, a small severe storm
had developed in the Holdrege area, which was moving almost due
south. For late today and tonight, will be carrying 20-30 POPs up
along I-70 as this activity is expected to continue to expand a
little bit in coverage where cumulus was forming west of this
initial storm toward Holyoke, CO (and points southwest from there to
the Palmer Divide). There is not the upper support farther west to
warrant a prolonged cluster of severe convection. Numerous runs of
the HRRR so far today show a general lackluster performance of
convection from this region as it moves southeast through the late
afternoon and by evening, dissolve convection all together just
about everywhere by sunset.

Also watching a mesoscale area of surface convergence across far
southwest KS, but again the short-term convective allowing models
(CAMs) just do not suggest much in the way of sustainability of any
convection down in that area. Nevertheless, will maintain some 15-20
POPs across the rest of southwest KS as any little zone of
convergence could initiate a storm that grows into something fairly
strong, if not borderline severe, in the area south of the Arkansas
River. Any longer lived storms up north could produce up to ping
pong or even golfball size hail before weakening.

Going into Tuesday, the flow pattern changes to more of a west-
northwest pattern, but the surface flow pattern will be radically
different as a substantial leeside trough takes shape. The increased
pressure gradient will lead to 20 to 30 mph winds developing by late
morning and continuing into the afternoon. Lee trough convergence
will strengthen, and this will be the area of focus for any late day
convection. This convergence zone will likely extend from far
northeast Colorado down to northeastern New Mexico. The upper flow
pattern favors more aggressive elevated mixed layer
development/capping, so lee trough convection may have a difficult
time becoming sustained the farther south one goes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Mid to late week looks to be fairly active as far as the large scale
pattern is concerned as it relates to severe weather potential
across the Central Plains. A largely zonal upper tropospheric
pattern will be in place, with the global models showing an 80-90
knot 250mb jet translating east through the pattern late Wednesday
into Thursday. A lead shortwave trough late Tuesday Night will push
a front east and south into northern Kansas by Wednesday. The
aforementioned jet streak moving into Colorado late in the day
Wednesday should favor post-frontal upslope easterly flow into
northeastern Colorado, which will be in the mid tropospheric
baroclinic zone. We would be looking for severe convection to form
back in the upslope area in addition to the front itself which
should stall out somewhere from southwest into north
central/northeast KS. The problem for southwest KS as far as
widespread severe potential goes is the cap. There will most likely
be a sharp southern cutoff to convective activity. Highest POPs
Wednesday will be in the north as a result. The CAPE/Shear
environment would favor supercell storms with good 850-500mb
crossovers. The initial jet streak late Wednesday will push east,
but it will be followed by another perturbation rippling through the
pattern. Mid level temperatures across western KS should be cooler,
and if the front does not push too far south into the warm
temperatures aloft, another severe weather event will likely unfold
across Kansas. The overall CAPE/Shear environment looks identical
to, if not a bit better than Wednesday. These two days look the best
for severe weather in our region (mainly eastern counties) during
this Long Term range. On Friday, there is global model consensus
that the surface front will push down into Oklahoma with the
emphasis for severe storms down in that area. We should see quite a
bit cooler temperatures Friday as a result.  Saturday and Sunday are
initially looking potentially wetter as post-frontal moist low level
winds resume in a general west-northwesterly flow pattern aloft.
It`s really too early to tell how the 4th of July will fare at this
point, given the obvious model uncertainty in the D+8 to 10 range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Main challenge will be whether or not thunderstorms will affect
any of the terminals. If any terminals will be affected, it
appears that HYS would be the only one, as storms across far
southwest Nebraska roll southeast late this afternoon into early
this evening. The consensus among the models, though, is that the
convective activity should be widely scattered in nature. For the
time, we will leave HYS convection free, however this would need
to be amended to include thunder as confidence increases.
Otherwise, light winds at 6 knots or less will prevail through
tonight. A strong leeside trough on Tuesday will result in
stronger south winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  89  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  62  92  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  62  91  67  95 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  64  91  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  61  88  70  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  64  89  71  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid