000
FXUS63 KDDC 261002
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND EXTEND IT INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BY LATER TONIGHT, THE NAM SUPPORTS NEAR 20:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN INITIAL WEAK
WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, OVER THE INCREASINGLY COLD AIR DOME, A ZONE OF
WEAK SURFACE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACHES FOR QPF EASILY PRODUCE AN INCH AND HALF TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LIKE STANTON, MORTON AND
STEVENS. HOWEVER MODELS LIKE THE NAM ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL. POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS
FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS APPEAR HIGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS. COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A BROAD AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, AFTER PROBABLY NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 20S ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MESSY FORECAST GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF KANSAS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS CURRENTLY BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE UPWARDS OF 20:1. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND
ELKHART. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE FAR SIX
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT, ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE WEST AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND WITH COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. JET LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO
THE TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CEILINGS IN ADDITION TO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN TAF WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN  GUSTY TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRATUS OF 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23   8  22  13 /   0  20  20  60
GCK  23   9  21  11 /  20  50  50  60
EHA  23  10  20  12 /  50  70  70  50
LBL  24  10  20  13 /  20  40  40  50
HYS  23   7  24  14 /   0  10  10  60
P28  26  10  24  16 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ061>063-074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL