Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230533
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A dry pattern will continue today and tonight even as a northwest
flow aloft intensifies across the Western High Plains during the
period. Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave dipping
southeast across the Northern Plains early this morning sending an
attendant cold front southeastward across western Kansas. Drier air
surging into western Kansas behind the front will reinforce the dry
air mass already in place across the high plains limiting instability.
May see some increase in high clouds by this afternoon as an upper
level jet drops down into the Central PLains, but precip chances
will remain absent across the region through tonight. Gusty north
winds behind the front and low relative humidity will create elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.

A cold front pushing through western Kansas early this morning will
cap climbing temperatures earlier in the day today. Look for highs
generally up into the 60s(F) by midday with temperatures beginning
to fall early to mid afternoon. Should see lows well down into the
30s(F) tonight with the lower 40s(F) possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Quite a range of fall-like temperatures will be found through the
extended period this week, from above normal to hard freeze range.
Northwest flow regime across the High Plains will be couple with an
upper trough across the upper Midwest phasing with the last system
that exited Kansas yesterday, to form a closed low in the Ohio
valley. A breezy afternoon with gusty winds should redevelop
Tuesday, before slacking off due to broad high surface pressure
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Lighter west downslope flow
Wednesday and dry air should warm easily into the 70s. Another
stronger cold front with a equatorward moving anticyclone on
Thursday will bring subfreezing overnight temperatures to the
region for the weekend, while limiting afternoon to the 50s Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
evening. South winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight as a weak lee
side trough of low pressure edges slowly eastward across eastern
Colorado. A cold front will then push across western Kansas early to
mid morning Monday turning winds northerly 20 to 35kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  68  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  65  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  67  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  65  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  70  42  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson


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