000
FXUS63 KDDC 271700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Weak upper level ridging will continue to build into the Central
Plains today and tonight along with a weak surface pressure
gradient. An upper low over the Great Lakes will build into the
Ohio Valley tonight.

What that means for weather is winds will be light through the
period. Light west winds become light northwesterly this morning
into the afternoon, then light and variable tonight. Skies will be
clear or mostly clear with some high level cirrus cloudiness passing
by across the Oklahoma border. Highs today will be warmer and in the
mid to upper 80s as weak downslope warming ensues. Lows tonight will
range from 50 to 55 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

For Wednesday into Friday, a dry period is forecast. The upper low
over the Ohio Valley will push a back door cold front across western
Kansas on Wednesday with light west winds shifting to the northeast
at 5 to 15 mph. Highs Wednesday will be cooler and range from the
mid 70s in parts of south central Kansas to the lower and mid 80s
across far southwest Kansas. Cooler high pressure then continues
to build into the Central Plains with highs on Thursday mainly in
the lower to mid 70s. By Friday, as high pressure moves east,
highs warm back into the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows for this
period will be mainly in the 40s.

For Saturday into Monday, a strong storm system will be pushing
across the western U.S. By Monday this storm system will be moving
into the Plains with increasing upper level southwesterly flow. Weak
upper waves in the flow will provide a small chances for
thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, then a better chance for
Monday with the stronger flow and moisture return. If the European
model is correct, we could have some severe storms on Monday
afternoon. The current GFS model suggests weaker flow however. Highs
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 into Monday. Lows will be mild
and in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

CAVU/VFR expected through TAF pd. Backdoor front will eventually traverse
through by morning. Winds eventually veering NE by mid AM. Gentle magnitudes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  54  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  85  51  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  52  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  85  52  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  84  53  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  84  55  80  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden