Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131852
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
152 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The main focus for the short term will be a convective risk this
evening though around midnight. A trough extending from south
central Nebraska into northeast New Mexico will be the focus area
for discreet to clustered convective elements originating near
the front range to spread east and southeast this evening. Earlier
runs of the WRF ARW/NMM cores have backed off the large heavy
rain and wind producing organized mcs, in favor of much more
discreet storms, and much less coverage across southwest Kansas.
The HRRR however remains the more aggressive model as of midday,
with widely scattered convection much farther east as well. The
latest 1630 SPC update continued the slight risk over much of the
western 1/2 of the area, and certainly mesoscale parameters
support general severe, i.e large hail up to 2 inch and damaging
wind. Another consideration for this evening will be the
relatively low flash flood guidance generally west of the highway
83 corridor to the Colorado line. Most storms that would impact
the area should be progressive enough to not pose a flooding
threat.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

There were no significant changes made to the extended forecast
period. An upper trough is slowly carved out across the Great
Basin/Intermountain West regions which will provide the set up
for some vigourous shortwaves to move out into the northern and
central Plains regions by Tuesday night and beyond. Temperatures
remain on the cool side of climatology Monday, while warming a
little closer to normal for the rest of the week (close to 90
degrees). Additional enhanced chances for thunderstorms exist
Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Ceilings have improved across the TAF sites as BL mixing has
maximized. Redevelopment is not forecast as the winds return to a
southerly flow, including above the ground layer where a LLJ is
shown to develop this evening. The LLJ will likely feed any
widely scattered convection ongoing this afternoon, keeping it
ongoing anywhere from nw KS/east central Colorado into the
terminal vicinities. beginning 00-01Z through as late as 08z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  64  87  67 /  10  20  10  30
GCK  83  63  87  66 /  10  20  10  20
EHA  84  63  86  64 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  84  64  87  67 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  84  64  88  68 /  10  20  10  20
P28  83  66  87  70 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...MR



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