Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162320
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Besides the gusty wind this afternoon, we`re having a nice fall
day across western Kansas. Water vapor imagery at 18Z shows upper
level ridging over the Pacific Northwest, creating northwest flow
over western Kansas this afternoon. A low amount of mid-level
moisture being advected from northeastern Colorado caused some
high cirrus clouds near Elkhart this morning. Therefore, a high
cloud or two this afternoon can`t be ruled out, but for the most
part skies will remain clear today. Temperatures will reach the
lower 70s, which is normal for this time of the year. With the
deepening surface lee trough in eastern Colorado, southerly wind
speeds will reach 15-20 mph sustained, with gusts up to 35 mph.
Relative humidities in the lower 20s this afternoon will make for
a low-end risk of fire danger for our central zones through about
0Z. Skies will remain clear tonight, with winds calming down to
under 10-12 mph. Temperatures will dip into the lower 40s, which
is again, normal for this time of the year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Pleasant fall weather will occur through the end of the week,
creating great opportunities to get outdoors. Our next chance
for precipitation will be this weekend with a cold front passing
through the region on Saturday. Until then, southwest Kansas will
be dealing with slightly above normal temperatures and for the
most part, light wind, especially for this region.

The upper level pattern will have relatively little change
through Wednesday, with ridging over the Pacific Northwest and
therefore northwest flow over Western Kansas. At the surface,
troughing will continue to develop in the lee of the Rockies.
However, the pressure gradient will loosen, causing wind to become
lighter and generally southerly through Wednesday.  Few clouds will
appear through that time period. On Wednesday, upper level flow
become zonal ahead of a shortwave that arrives on Thursday. With
little moisture available in the boundary layer, Wednesday and
Thursday will be dry, although clouds will start to increase a bit
finally late Thursday. On Thursday, surface wind will will become
gusty once again in response to deepening lee troughing and will
remain gusty until fropa on late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning.

The main event during this long term period will be a relatively
progressive, large-scale trough tracking through the central
Plains Saturday and into Sunday, which the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian
all have pretty good consensus on its intensity and arrival. They
also have good consensus on most of the precipitation associated
with this system affecting our eastern zones Saturday during the
day, with the majority of moisture and potential convection being
located in Central and Eastern Kansas. That being said, have
included POPs for most of the CWA during the day on Saturday as
the system is still 5 days away. Surface high pressure fills in
behind this system for Sunday and Monday.

As for temperatures, southwestern Kansas will remain slightly above
normal for this time of the year with highs through Friday in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid-to upper 40s. Friday
night and Saturday night, lows in the upper 50s. Saturday highs in
the mid-70s, and Sunday will be cooler post frontal passage with
highs in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
afternoon. Southerly winds will continue to diminish through the
evening, dropping below 15kt as a lee side trough in extreme
southeast Colorado edges slowly eastward into extreme southwest
Kansas late tonight. Winds may actually become more light and
variable in vicinity of the trough axis closer to the Colorado
border. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt will redevelop Tuesday as the lee
side trough washes out and another surface trough develops just lee
of the front range in southeast Colorado.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Wind and temperatures will combine with relative humidities
reaching close to 15 percent today, creating elevated fire weather
concerns for a few hours this afternoon. Wind will gust up to 35
mph through sunset. Caution is advised if burning outdoors today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  81  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  79  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  76  47  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Reynolds



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