Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

A strong upper level low that moved into the western United states
this morning will continue to trek eastward into the Northern
Rockies by tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge
will remain centered over the Southern Plains through tomorrow.
Weak disturbances look to slide around the periphery of the upper
level low as it approaches the Plains. However, western Kansas
doesn`t look to be affected by any of these disturbances until
tomorrow night. This will lead to increased high clouds with no
precipitation expected through tomorrow afternoon. A few
thunderstorms are anticipated to form across eastern Colorado
tomorrow afternoon but should remain out of our CWA until after
00Z. An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary at
the surface will remain located across north central Colorado,
northwest Kansas, and southern Nebraska through tomorrow. This
will lead to continued southerly winds felt across western Kansas.
Breezy conditions are expected once again tomorrow afternoon. As
for temperatures, lows look to dip into the mid 60s with highs
tomorrow reaching into the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

The upper level low mentioned in the short term will continue to
trek eastward and into south central Canada by the start of next
week. This in turn will help push a cold front through western
Kansas Saturday with another push of cooler air Sunday morning
into the Sunday evening. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of
this front Friday night across western Kansas spreading eastward
throughout the remainder of the CWA by Saturday morning.
Thunderstorm chances remain across the eastern half of the CWA
Saturday into Sunday morning with the best chance across south
central Kansas. A drier weather pattern shows its face Sunday
night through at least the middle of next week as upper level
ridging builds across the western United States with high pressure
being the dominate feature at the surface. As for temperatures,
highs Saturday are forecasted to only reach into the low to mid
80s with temperatures in the 70s Sunday through the middle part of
next week. Lows Friday night will start out ranging from around 50
degrees along the KS/CO border to around 70 degrees across south
central Kansas. Cooler temperatures are in store for the remainder
of the forecast period with lows in 40s Sunday night through
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Gusty south winds will fall back to around 15 knots towards
sunset, and then continue at around 15 knots through the predawn
hours as a surface trough of low pressure remains nearly
stationary across eastern Colorado. These southerly winds will
then increase to 20 to 25 knots by the early afternoon as this
surface trough of low pressure over eastern Colorado deepens. VFR
conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  92  64  84 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  65  93  59  83 /  10  10  50  20
EHA  63  91  57  81 /  10  20  40  20
LBL  64  92  62  83 /  10  10  30  30
HYS  67  92  65  82 /  10  10  40  40
P28  66  93  69  86 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert



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