000
FXUS63 KDDC 270604
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe convective threat will exist on Saturday afternoon to
  early evening mainly east of US Highway 183.

- Critical fire weather conditions will develop Saturday
  afternoon for locations west of US Highway 283.

- Cooler conditions(temperatures <80 F) expected for Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Past morning upper air data along with latest water vapor imagery
reveals a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS. In particular,
a deep upper trough is seen over the west and central portions of
the country while a downstream ridge is sitting over the Great Lakes
and southern Appalachians.  Embedded within this upper trough are
two distinct closed lows with one currently sliding northeast across
Nebraska while a second is positioned across the Intermountain West.
This first upper low has an associated surface cyclone across
Nebraska with a warm front extending southeast into the mid
Mississippi River Valley and a weak Pacific cold front/dryline
extending south into OK and TX.

While deep boundary layer moisture via surface dewpoints in the 60s
exists ahead of this front/dryline across the eastern half of
Kansas, much drier/stable air is currently in place over western and
central Kansas this afternoon. With that stated, the progression of
the upper trough axis has allowed a small band of showers to develop
over western KS behind the front. Nonetheless, the alignment of the
front/dryline farther east has effectively shifted the threat for
severe convection well east of western and central Kansas through
tonight. This will leave a generally quiet evening to overnight for
the region as temperatures drop into the 40s to 50s for lows.

Saturday will then turn active yet again as the aforementioned upper
low over the Intermountain West today...slides east into the Central
Great Plains by early evening.  This will have the affect of not
only stalling the progression of the front and deeper boundary layer
moisture farther east, but as a surface low deepens over western KS
by Saturday morning, higher theta-e air will advect back west to
form a sharp dryline somewhere between US Highways 183 and 283.
Further, a warm front will also develop roughly along the I-70
corridor with deeper boundary layer moisture behind east winds
advecting into northwest KS to northeast CO.  Behind the dryline
critical fire weather conditions will develop as deep thermal mixing
will create very low humidity values and gusty southwest winds
during the afternoon hours.  However, the main story is the risk of
severe convection in the afternoon to evening hours. Although
inhibition via an EML is largely eroded by mid to late afternoon,
the CAMS vary considerably with extent, if any in the case of the
HRRR, of storms that develop. Overall confidence in convective
develop is much higher east of US Highway 183 but will maintain a
low-end chance as far west as 283.  MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg along with
effective layer shear of 50+ kt will support supercells initially,
although a veer-back vertical wind profile may promote growth
into line segments. Needless, to say significant hail and even
an isolated tornado threat will exist. Additionally, the area
north of the warm front will also see convective development
closer to the upper low with parameters less favorable for large
hail but more so for tornado development. Severe convective
threat will slide into eastern KS by mid to late evening with
only some lingering showers closer to the upper cyclone to deal
with during the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Sunday will then look somewhat similar to today as the upper low
moves from the Central Plains...northeastward into the Upper
Midwest. This will push a front through the region with cooler
temperatures (probability of exceeding 80 degrees under 30% for
most of the area) and more stable conditions invading western
and central KS. With that stated, there will be some lingering
showers mainly on the back side of the cyclone along the I-70
corridor through the day (precip chances <50 percent) but
amounts will be light.

Monday into Tuesday will then be transition days as ENS and GEFS
means indicate the next upper wave digging into the Intermountain
West to Northern Plains by mid week. This will help deepen the
lee trough again with deeper boundary layer moisture advecting
back into the region as seen with ensemble probability of
exceeding 50 F Td at 50+ percent. Additionally, Monday and
Tuesday will be dry as temperatures warm back into the 80s
(probability of exceeding 80 degrees above 70%). For Wednesday
through Friday, while specific details are not worth detailing
at this point, the approach of this wave and an associated front will
bring the next chance of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A warm front will move north of the TAF sites overnight and
early Saturday. Winds will increase from the south to 15 to 25
kts by 15-18z. Thunderstorms will develop along a dry line by
21z and persist in scattered nature through 03z. Low MVFR CIGS
are expected by 15z at KHYS as low level moisture increases
north of the warm front, but improvement is likely by 18z as
the front shifts northward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A strong dryline will develop between US Highway 183 and 283 on
Saturday. Behind this boundary critical fire weather conditions
will develop as deep thermal mixing will drop humidity levels
down to under 15 percent while southwest winds with gusts of 25
mph or higher exist. A fire weather watch has been issued for
this region from roughly 18 to 00 UTC.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening
for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...AJohnson