Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
126 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Some low stratus at KHYS is forecast to dissipate early this
afternoon, then reform early Friday am after 12Z as wind shifts
back to the light north-northeast. Elsewhere expect VFR with light
south to southwest winds shifting northwesterly at 5-12kt after
00-03Z as a weak surface trough moves across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  51  22  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  53  24  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  59  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  58  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  30  42  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  52  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse


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