Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172136
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
336 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

The compact upper level low pressure system that brought light rain
and sprinkles to south central and parts of southwest Kansas late last
night has lifted northeast out of the High Plains region this morning.
In its wake, the cold front that pushed through western Kansas last
night had stalled out across central Kansas into the Texas Panhandle.
Elsewhere, an upper level low pressure trough extending from the
northern Plains into southern Arizona was shearing out with the
Arizona low getting cut off from the upper flow. Over the next 24
hours, the models show the upper trough continuing to head into
the Northeast while the Arizona low gradually weakens and opens up
as it heads toward the southern Plains.

For southwest Kansas, winds will diminish this evening and become
southerly overnight as surface high pressure moves off to the east.
With mainly clear skies overnight, low temperatures should drop
to around the coolest MOS guidance, if not a few degrees cooler.
 A few of the mesoscale models (NAM, HiRes-ARW) indicate some
lower visibilities developing toward morning. NAM model soundings
indicate that the moist layer will be very shallow. With the more
significant boundary layer moisture to our east, am not
anticipating any fog development at this time but it will have to
be watched.

Monday should be a fairly decent day. With full sunshine (for
December), a southwesterly component to the winds and dry surface
conditions, we could see high temperatures topping out in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday will see the upper level low over the Desert
Southwest opening up and moving out across the central and southern
Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will pull a weak cool front
southward across western Kansas again on Tuesday. This is not expected
to have much of an impact as temperatures should at least be back
into the upper 50s Tuesday. Wednesday will be another mild day
with mostly sunny skies and above seasonal temperatures.

Things start to go downhill on Thursday. A strong upper trough/low
pressure area moving into the Pacific Northwest toward midweek is
progged to move to a position from the northern Plains into the
central Rockies by Thursday evening. This system will bring some
of the coldest air so far this season into the central High Plains
on Thursday. Some light snow could also develop across parts of
western Kansas Thursday night into Friday morning. Given the
positively tilted orientation of the upper trough as it moves out
over the Plains, am not anticipating much in the way of
precipitation. Anything that does fall may be focused more into
areas along and north of I-70.

Into the Christmas holiday weekend, there continues to inconsistencies
among the various medium range models as well as some run to run
variability. This mornings GFS keeps a broad upper level trough
from the northern Plains into the Great Basin through the weekend
while the ECMWF and Canadian models hint at this but are more
progressive (and aggressive) with individual short wave
disturbances rotating around the upper low. The majority of the
GFS ensembles are leaning toward the operational run with some
members looking similar to the Euro/Canadian solutions. That being
said, all the models continue to show very cold air in place,
850 mb temperatures aob -10C, across western Kansas next weekend
into Christmas Day. Also, cannot totally rule out a white Christmas
for at least parts of western Kansas as upper disturbances moving
through and interacting with the very cold air should be able to
wring out some dry, fluffy snow.

Details on the areal coverage and amounts of any snowfall are pretty
vague at this time and will likely change during the next few days
given the model uncertainties. Right now it still does not appear that
a major winter snowstorm is in the offing for the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Current MVFR conditions with a stratus cloud deck for DDC, GCK,
and LBL should give way to VFR conditions later this afternoon
around 21Z and continue through the rest of the time period. An
area of high pressure will move into Kansas by sunset and should
keep the skies mostly clear and the winds light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  59  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  21  58  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  62  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  62  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  57  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  60  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Tatro


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