Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301124
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Thunderstorm activity has pretty much ended across southwest
Kansas early this morning as the MCS that was across the
Panhandles and impinging on southwest Kansas earlier in the
evening continues to dive southward into central and eastern
Oklahoma and Texas. The MCS over northwest Kansas has pretty much
evaporated. Skies were clearing across western kansas in the wake
of these systems.

A shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest earlier this evening
was making steady eastward progression per the latest water vapor
imagery. This wave is progged to intensify as it moves out over the
eastern slopes of the northern Rockies later today. A lee side trough
will strengthen across eastern portions of Wyoming and Colorado today.
The trough, and an intersecting Pacific frontal system associated with
the shortwave, will be the focus for late day thunderstorms over eastern
Colorado into northwest Kansas. Increasing insolation will destabilize
the lower levels of the atmosphere today with CAPE values
increasing to at least 2000 j/kg this afternoon. Model bulk shear
values increase to around 35-40 knots over far western Kansas
later this afternoon. These values are somewhat marginal but
should should support a few supercell thunderstorms with large
hail and strong winds being the main threats. The latest Day 1
outlook from SPC now has a slight risk for severe extending
farther south into west central Kansas which looks reasonable.

Model guidance including the convective allowing models suggests
that an MCS could form this evening and propagate east and
southeast into central and south central Kansas through the
overnight hours as a low level jet develops this evening and veers
overnight. Have boosted pops into the likely category especially
across west central into central Kansas through the overnight
hours.

Given the lack of cloud cover today, we should see temperatures
climbing into the mid/upper 80s. Lows tonight should remain
somewhat mild given the increased cloud cover...bottoming out in
the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

There should be a brief lull in convective activity early Tuesday
morning as the MCS dissipates over central Kansas. The models all
move a Pacific cold front southeast across the area during the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both move the front through all of southwest
and south central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon while the NAM is a
few hours slower. This will have implications on daytime high
temperatures as the MAV MOS guidance is cooler than the MET MOS.
With showers and thunderstorms developing along and over the
frontal boundary during the day along with increasing cloud cover,
will leave the going temperature forecast as is which lines up
with the cooler MAV.

The upper level shortwave trough moves east across the northern
Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning while surface high pressure builds south into the central
High Plains behind the front. Drier air will bring an end to the
precipitation chances through the remainder of the week. Wednesday
will be another slightly cooler than normal day with highs
generally in the 70s. We should see a return to more seasonal
temperatures in the 80s through the latter part of the week as
an upper level ridge builds toward the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies this
morning with a few mid level clouds this afternoon. Winds will be
from the south southwest at less than 10 knots this morning
shifting to more of a southerly direction and increasing to around
12 knots by this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  60  77  54 /  10  60  60  50
GCK  87  58  74  53 /  20  50  50  30
EHA  85  58  75  54 /  30  30  40  50
LBL  86  60  77  55 /  20  30  60  50
HYS  85  59  74  53 /  10  60  60  30
P28  86  63  80  60 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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