Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020552
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  50  20
GCK  67  92  67  91 /  10  10  50  20
EHA  68  86  67  92 /  20  20  40  10
LBL  69  86  69  92 /  20  20  40  10
HYS  69  95  70  88 /  10  10  40  30
P28  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE



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