000
FXUS63 KDDC 230156
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
856 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Cold front clearing Barber county through 930 pm after which it
will have cleared all of SW KS. Last of the spotty convection
diminishing between Meade and Ashland. Updrafts forced by the
frontal lift were extremely efficient rainfall producers, with
areas lucky enough to receive a storm picking up a quick 1-2
inches of rain. Some examples of this: SE Meade county, northern
Clark county, south central Ford county, near Ensign, near Hanston
in eastern Hodgeman county, near Otis in eastern Rush county. The
strongest storms impacted Trego county, where wind damage to power
lines was reported west of Wakeeney. Also, radar estimates 5-6
inches of rain in NE Trego county, north of Ogallah. The flash
flood warning issued has thus been cancelled. Also expired the
heat advisory as cooler NE winds arrive. Aligned pop grids based
on radar trends. Compelled to keep slight chance showers/storms
mentioned overnight, as HRRR and new 00z NAM both indicate post-
frontal activity developing after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Precip chances return to western Kansas this evening as an upper
level shortwave trough slides southeast across the Upper Midwest,
sending an attendant frontal boundary further southward across
southwest and central Kansas. Although a weak flow aloft and a
lack of organized shear will prevail, enough instability will be
present to support the potential for isolated thunderstorms in a
band of increased convergence associated with the frontal boundary.
Even though the severe potential is minimal, the environment is
such that a few storms could become strong enough to produce small
hail and gusty winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph. Thunderstorm
chances shift southward closer to the Oklahoma border Sunday as
the frontal boundary pushes further south. With the weak frontal
boundary moving through tonight, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across west central Kansas to the 70s(F) in south central
Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as hot tomorrow with highs
generally in the 90s(F) Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Chances for significant precip dwindle early next week as upper
level ridging begins to rebuild across the South Plains and southern
portions of the Central Plains. Under a prevailing weak northwest
flow aloft, any thunderstorm chances are expected to be relegated
to more diurnally driven factors and should be fairly isolated in
nature within a southeast upslope flow setting up across the high
plains. In general, the better chance for storms looks to be
across eastern Colorado in vicinity of a developing lee side
trough each afternoon with storms then potentially drifting into
extreme western Kansas later in the evening time frame. A few
storms could be possible further east late Monday in conjunction
with a weak frontal boundary lifting back to the north across the
region. As for temperatures, a warming trend will take place
through at least Wednesday as low level southerlies set up under
ridging aloft. Highs are expected to push the century mark again
by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Cold front will progress southward across SW Kansas terminals this
evening, with surface winds becoming NE and averaging 15-25 kts.
Scattered thunderstorms along the frontal boundary are expected to
be most widespread near HYS early this evening, where a convective
TEMPO group was included. Otherwise, the odds of a thunderstorm
directly impacting an airport are low. Convective coverage will
decrease along the front after 06z as instability wanes. Frontal
boundary will continue to sag southward on Sunday, with the best
potential for further convection south of the airports. NE post-
frontal winds near 10 kts expected Sunday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  93  68  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  68  90  67  94 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  63  89  67  92 /  30  40  30  20
LBL  68  94  68  94 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  69  92  69  95 /  60  20  10  10
P28  74  97  71  97 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner