000
FXUS63 KDDC 080619
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A strong cold front is currently moving quickly to the south through
SW Kansas.  Along with it, strong north to northeast winds have
formed in nearly a wind advisory category.  I think temperatures
will be quick to fall and set the stage for a round of snow tonight
and much of Saturday.  A developing upper and mid level wave will
cross tonight, and enhance the upper lift over the cold air.  A lot
of strong cold air is evident upstream from the trough/wave.  I
upgraded the WSW around 10:45 am, expanding the area south of I-70
clear to Barber to Stafford county.  I also bumped up snow amounts
to 2 to 4 inches, with possibly up to 5 inches in my west near
Syracuse, Ulysses, and Elkhart.  Went with 2 to 3 inches in the
eastern Finney County, Ford and Meade counties, and near 2 inches in
the southeast zones including Edwards, Pratt and Barber.  The
southeast zones will be the snow later, for instance, after 12z
Saturday, but will receive snow longer into Sat afternoon.  These
snow amounts and the timing is based on a compromise of the NAM, the
HiRes-ARW-West and NamDNG5 models.  The longer range models of the
EC and GFS are less with snow amounts, but similar to the other
models in the timing. I also checked the model soundings for those
models.  There is a warm tongue this afternoon, but the entire lower
level soundings is below 0C degree by 06z.  After 06z is when the
soundings saturate in the dendritic formation zone.  The other
weather factor for tonight is the wind.  North winds of 15 to 20 mph
with higher gusts will cause some drifting and blowing of the snow.
This factor was included in the WSW.

As for temperatures, I kept the mid 20s going for tonight.  Clouds,
winds and precip will play with tonight`s temperatures.  The clouds
will continue on Saturday and the fresh snow will have a cooling
affect on maximum temperatures.  Thus, I lowered max temps into the
mid to upper 30s across the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area,
mainly based on where I expect accumulated snow from tonight to be,
or snow still occurring Saturday for most of the day.  In the north
near Hays and northwestern areas north of Scott City, highs will
likely reach the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Saturday night/Sunday/Monday:

We will see moderating temperatures during this period. The warmest
looks to be Monday as a result of downslope flow and warm air advection.
Widespread 70sF still looks good attm. No precipitation is expected
during this period. Lows will moderate as well and minimums Monday morning
could end up relatively mild - mid to upper 30sF with 40sF for Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday and beyond:

Attention then turns to Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF
was looking pretty ominous and hinting at a blizzard. Well, the 12Z EC
is still fairly closed off compared to the 12Z GFS. The overall system
is slightly weaker with lower QPF and resultant snowfall amounts than
compared to the 00Z EC. The 12Z GEM is in fair agreement with the 12Z
GFS. Both 00Z/12Z EC runs seem more amplified and than the ensemble
mean. Putting all this together, there is very large uncertainty if
we will get a progressive trof with some light rain/snow or a wrapped up
system that could potentially be a high impact event. With the large
uncertainty, felt it was safe to stick with the conservative Allblend
solution for pops and temperatures. Stay tuned as models will hopefully
come into better consensus. The overall trend for either some rain or
snow and cooler temperatures exists during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A fast moving upper disturbance will slide east across the Central
Plains tonight into early on Saturday. This system will bring a
band of light snow along with IFR ceilings and visibilities during
the overnight hours. However, this system will push quickly east
after sunset this morning with conditions turning dry and ceilings
becoming unlimited by early afternoon for the DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  26  64  37 /  80   0   0   0
GCK  45  25  66  35 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  44  30  65  39 /  70   0   0   0
LBL  44  25  64  35 /  70   0   0   0
HYS  47  24  67  38 /  60   0   0   0
P28  38  23  62  35 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ065-066-
079>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...AJohnson