000
FXUS63 KDDC 091915
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave swinging southeast across the Four Corners Region.
Near the surface, an area of high pressure has settled across much
of Kansas helping keep a cold air mass locked in across the
Western High Plains. Very dry air remains in place across the
region with surface dewpoints around 0F across central and
southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Short range models indicate the upper level shortwave in the
southern Rockies quickly transitioning eastward across the
Western High Plains tonight and into the Upper Ohio River Valley
Tuesday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will move swiftly out of
western Kansas this evening as lee side troughing begins to
develop across eastern Colorado resulting in westerly downsloping
winds across western Kansas. As the flow aloft weakens overnight,
drier air will move into western Kansas resulting in dry and
tranquil conditions through Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be cold and remain just below normal tonight as
lee side troughing begins to develop across eastern Colorado. A
developing westerly downslope wind will begin to slowly erode the
cold air mass in place across the region overnight. However, the
winds will remain fairly light through Tuesday morning while skies
become mostly clear. As a result, lows are still expected down
into the single digits(F) across central and west central Kansas
with the lower teens(F) expected in extreme southwest Kansas and
in some locations along the Oklahoma border. A significant rise in
high temperatures will occur Tuesday as the lee side trough
strengthens, helping to turn surface winds more southwesterly
across much of western Kansas. This will draw warmer air northward
into the area with H85 temperatures climbing to near 0C. Look for
highs well up into the mid to upper 30s(F) across central Kansas
to the lower to mid 40s(F) in portions of southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Tuesday:

Southwest Kansas will be situated on the tail end of upper level westerlies
Tuesday. This will favor advection of a low level downslope plume with
850 hPa temperatures as warm as 4C. The ECE shows a high of 46 (!) for
Tuesday for KDDC. This is an outlier compared to the GFS/GEM. The forecast
soundings from the EC don`t show that much mixing even with the aforementioned
ideal southwesterly low level flow. With go with a blend and have maximums
in the upper 30sF. No precipitation is expected. A cold front will move
across the region during the overnight period.

Wednesday and beyond:

Cold air advection is expected in the wake of the aforementioned front
with 850 hPa temperatures crashing again well into negative territory.
Maximums will be in the upper 20sF and saw no reason to deviate from
the inherited grids. No precipitation is expected with this dry front.

Otherwise, the rest of the period will feature dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. Will have to watch for precip potential on Friday as a
wave moves across the region. The allblend precipitation chances were
nil/dry for now and saw no reason to deviate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. As for winds, an area of high pressure will drift
southeast across western Kansas through this evening resulting in
light and variable winds. A weak lee side trough of low pressure
will then develop across eastern Colorado overnight turning winds
westerly at around 5 to 15kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   5  40  14  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   2  40  12  27 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  14  28 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   5  42  15  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   5  38  12  26 /   0   0   0   0
P28   7  38  15  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson