000
FXUS63 KDDC 302316
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH  ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.

THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY 03-06Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN AND VSBYS FROM 2-4SM. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO
MIX IN LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09-12Z AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT.
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  31  36 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  31  37 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  33  40 /  80  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  34  41 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  26  29 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  34  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE