Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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049
FXUS63 KDDC 281730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Atmosphere recovering and destabilizing quickly this afternoon,
with dewpoints climbing and SE winds reestablishing. Expect
airmass will be primed for another thunderstorm complex by 7 pm.
Ongoing convection across NW Kansas and SW Nebraska muddles the
picture a bit, but with time the picture is getting clearer.
Ongoing storms are expected to be largely inconsequential for
SW KS, with new vigorous storm development expected in NE Colorado
by midafternoon. High confidence that convection will again
organize upscale into a large/severe MCS and reach the northern
zones around 7 pm. Models are in excellent agreement tracking the
MCS southward across SW KS this evening. Synoptic situation, with
increasing NWly 500 mb flow to near 40 kts this evening, is highly
favorable for a well-maintained MCS through early Friday morning.
Kept thunderstorm coverage in the likely/definite category tonight
and continued a mention of damaging winds through about midnight.
Many fairs with outdoor festivities begin this evening. Keep
abreast of the changing thunderstorm situation this evening,
especially if planning on being outdoors away from shelter.
Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph are possible this evening.

Friday...Cooler. Post-MCS airmass will preside across SW KS, with
residual convective debris clouds and lingering rain showers.
Between the cloud cover and winds maintaining an easterly
component through the day, temperatures will be noticeably cooler
Friday, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 80s. Areas of
low stratus clouds may linger much of Friday morning. Expectation
is for atmosphere to be thoroughly worked over from tonight`s MCS,
with available CAPE very limited for further convective
redevelopment Friday afternoon. As such, kept pop grids
conservative, and emphasized rain showers in the grids as opposed
to thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

There will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms through the
first half of the weekend period as a few more upper level
disturbances embedded in the northwest flow crosses the central
Plains.

The Mid levels will continue to warm through the weekend period
and by late Saturday an upper level ridge axis will begin to move
east into the Rockies. The area more favorable for late day and
overnight convection will gradually shift eastward towards central
Kansas through the weekend period as a warming trend begins for
western Kansas. Highs approaching 100 degrees near the Oklahoma
border in southwest Kansas will be possible on Sunday. Highs are
expected across all of western Kansas to be near 100 degrees for
the start of next week.

By Tuesday a surface cold front will move south into western
Kansas as an upper level trough is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF
to cross the northern Plains. This should bring the a chance for
precipitation back to western Kansas Tuesday or Wednesday along
with a brief break in the warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Atmosphere will continue to recover from last night`s convection
this afternoon, with SE surface winds becoming reestablished
through 00z Fri. High confidence of another thunderstorm complex
affecting aviation starting around 00z near HYS, and progressing
south to impact GCK/DDC by 02z. Included convective TEMPO groups
in the 18z TAFs using this NAM timing as a guide. Primary threat
will be strong to severe outflow winds as high as 60-70 kts.
Current thinking is most convection will be south of the TAF sites
by 09z Friday. Stratus and areas of -SHRA to persist in the post-
MCS airmass Friday morning, but uncertain how low cigs will be.
Hedged at 4k ft AGL for now. Surface winds expected to maintain an
easterly component Friday, with convective potential much reduced
in the cooler airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  84  66 /  30  90  30  20
GCK  93  65  83  65 /  80  80  20  20
EHA  97  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  20
LBL  97  67  88  67 /  20  40  20  20
HYS  88  65  81  65 /  60  70  30  20
P28  95  68  85  69 /  50  80  40  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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