


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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669 FXUS63 KDDC 112039 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will push through the region tonight with showers and thunderstorms possible (>50%) mainly late this evening to overnight - Cooler (afternoon highs in the 80s) along with dry conditions will then prevail for the remainder of the weekend - Chance (>30%) for showers and thunderstorms returns by middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Water vapor imagery from this afternoon reveals a relatively flat upper air flow regime across the CONUS although with two notable short waves seen rippling across central US. The first wave stretches from the Upper Midwest into eastern KS/OK while the other wave extends from North Dakota back into the Central Rockies. The first wave is leaving an area of subsidence behind it across the western half of KS with little in the wave of cloud cover. However, the second wave is already helping initiate convection along the Front Range to Sangre De Cristo ranges in CO and NM. Closer to the surface, the aforementioned first wave has helped push a weak front southward earlier this morning but now nearly stalled just south of the Kansas...Oklahoma state line. While there is decent MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg along this boundary and only modest inhibition...the subsidence behind the exiting wave is helping create a very dry LCL- LFC layer that is limiting initiation as noted by only shallow CU. While there is still some potential (<20%) for deep convection to initiate near the KS...OK state line into the early evening... the overall shear profile as noted in the KDDC 88D VWP profile is very weak which suggests any convection that does develop will struggle to organize. The lone exception to that rule is higher DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg that would support decent downdraft potential even with shorter duration storms. Otherwise...attention will shift toward later this evening into the overnight hours as the aforementioned wave across the Central Rockies pushes a secondary cold front into western KS. While MCS maintenance will be marginal...there is a modest 30-35 kt LLJ that noses into southwest Kansas by 06Z right as the front moves into the area. This should allow convection to move out of CO/NM and blossom over far western KS by midnight. With shear profiles remaining weak...unlikely this will result in a widespread severe convective threat. This convection will then slowly shift east-southeast across the area during the overnight to early morning hours with the highest probability (around 30%) for rainfall to exceed 0.5-in generally west of US Highway 283. Other than some lingering showers/thunderstorms during the morning to early afternoon hours...Saturday will see the short wave and associated front slide east into the lower Great Plains. This will result in subsidence and dry weather prevailing by mid afternoon along with decreasing cloud cover. Nonetheless, this will result in a cooler start to the weekend with afternoon highs staying in the 80s. For the remainder of the weekend into early next week ENS and GFES means reveal upper ridging building over the Central Rockies and adjacent Central High Plains with dry conditions prevailing (probability of exceeding 0.10-in near zero). This will also result in temperatures gradually increasing back into the 90s for afternoon highs by Tuesday. For the middle to end of the week there are some signs in the ENS and GEFS means of another monsoonal oriented moisture plume pushing into the region that interacts with a northern stream short wave. This will bring the next associated chance for thunderstorms and slightly cooler temps (probability of exceeding 90 F <30%) && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Initially for this afternoon to early evening...relatively quiet VFR aviation conditions expected for terminals across southwest into central Kansas. Specifically, a weak front has moved into the northern OK and TX Panhandle region with slightly cooler...more stable air spreading across western KS. This is leaving any risk for thunderstorms south of the region currently with an unlimited ceiling and visibility prevailing. However, later this evening to overnight a passing short wave initially triggering thunderstorms over CO, will allow a larger region of showers and thunderstorms to move across western KS. This will include some MVFR ceilings and gusty thunderstorm winds. Storms will then gradually fade by mid morning on under VFR conditions. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJohnson AVIATION...AJohnson