


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
920 FXUS63 KDDC 070707 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 207 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - MCS potential late tonight into early Tuesday morning - Dry and warmer midweek - Active weather pattern returns for the end of the workweek into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 07z upper air and surface analysis shows a weakening MCS ranging from near Johnson to west of Dodge City to Dighton. Earlier the line was producing 60-70 mph gusts but with the strengthening nocturnal cap the storms have been weakening over time. A 594 dm high is centered in southern New Mexico/Arizona with the stronger westerly jet extending from central California through northern Colorado. Today the main forecast challenge will be how worked over the atmosphere is from the morning convection and how much sun will we get to warm the cool outflow air and destabilize the atmosphere. Another challenge will be that models vary a bit in the position and strength of the high in the desert southwest which will influence the location of stronger 200-300 mb winds. These winds will serve as the steering mechanism for another complex of storms to develop in northeast Colorado through the Nebraska panhandle later this afternoon. CAM trends tend to keep the bulk of the severe weather and heavier rain mainly in Nebraska and far northern Kansas tonight with some possible storm development along the outflow boundary after sunset tonight in our northwest zones. Should any storms develop if we get enough destabilization we could get some rogue wind gusts greater than 60 mph. Short term model trends keep the CAPE at bay through much of the morning and we really only begin to see 1000- 2000 J/kg CAPE values appear in our far west by late afternoon once we have breaks in the clouds. That said with ample low level moisture and modest instability I can`t rule out an isolated storm in southwest Kansas in the afternoon however with the lower confidence of storms happening I kept POPs 15-20%. For mid week models have the heat dome in the southwest intensifying and expanding northward which should put the stronger westerlies moreso into Wyoming and that would keep the more organized MCS activity well to the north. There`s higher confidence that Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry across southwest Kansas as well as warmer. Since we should have more sunshine through the day and the eastern extent of the hotter air moves into far western Kansas we should see highs reach into the low to middle 90s. Long range models show the return of an active weather pattern towards the end of the week with MCS and severe weather potential returning Thursday night. With the heat dome shifting to the south and west as a stronger trough moves through the Rockies we should see the return of the stronger westerlies moving into Colorado and therefore the initiation of storms will be in the front range. GEFS and EPS 6 hour QPF mean output is showing the return of 30-40% chances of at least 0.1 inch of rain during the overnight hours Thursday. The 20-30% NBM POPs seem reasonable at this time. More rounds of mainly overnight storms continue in the forecast through the weekend as a strong trough moving through the northern plains will keep the brunt of the heat dome over the desert southwest and the stronger westerlies stay in the central Rockies through the central plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 An ongoing MCS in northwest Kansas will move through southwest Kansas between 05-09Z this morning with strong winds and heavy rain the main threats. The line should reach near GCK around 07Z and DDC near 08Z. Sustained winds will increase to 20-30 kts and gusts could reach 40+ kts. Winds will also quickly shift from the south to the north with the passing of the storms. In general we should have VFR flight category however with the storms producing heavy rainfall we could see lower SM in DDC and GCK that could drop the flight category to MVFR. In the afternoon hours we could see a few pop up storms around DDC and LBL between 21-02Z however the probability of storms is around 20%. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro