349
FXUS63 KDDC 191656
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday evening)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A very warm day is in store to begin the weekend. An upper level
high was centered across New Mexico, which has allowed 850-700mb
temperatures to warm up quite a bit, with +16C at 700mb at KABQ at
19/0000 UTC. This warm air will continue to expand east into
southwest Kansas, so we should see temperatures exceed yesterday`s
surface temperatures by 3 or 4 degrees across the board -- going
for 97 at Dodge City and 100 for highs in the Red Hills of Clark,
Comanche, Barber County. A surface leeside trough will become
established by late afternoon, and convergence will setup in its
traditional axis from Baca County through east-central Colorado.
Convective initiation is expected along this axis in the 2100 to
20/0000 UTC time frame today, and will have some slight chance
POPs along the CO border. Short-term models suggest the storms
farther south will struggle to live much past 0000 UTC. There is
some model consistency in the best convective organization farther
north across northwestern Kansas, with a small MCS expected north
of I-70 in the 0000 to 0600 UTC time frame. Given that likelihood,
we will have some 30-40 POPs across Trego and Ellis County to
account for exact location uncertainty, although the better
probability for location of an MCS will be closer to the Nebraska
border. The rest of the forecast through tonight is fairly
straight-forward without much in the way of change from the
inherited grids.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Main challenge will be extent of mid-high level cloud cover on
Monday, particularly 1800 UTC at the time of partial solar eclipse.
There is growing confidence that at a plume of subtropical cirriform
cloud cover will push up into western Kansas late Sunday, with the
best timing for most widespread, potentially opaque mid and high
cloud late Sunday Night through at least Monday morning. There is
still some uncertainty around 1800 UTC at around eclipse time how
opaque/thick this cloud cover will be and extensive it is/how
many breaks there will be. The ECMWF continues to be the least
promising for western Kansas partial solar eclipse observers as it
shows a fairly large area of 95-100 percent RH at 300 and 400mb,
with even a swath of 90-95 percent RH at 500mb.

As far as the rest of the forecast is concerned, the best chance for
precipitation with this storm system will be late Monday Night as
this disturbance interacts with a polar from advancing from
Nebraska. Latest SuperBlend guidance gives 40 to 50 POPs along/east
of a U283 corridor with 20-30 POPs west of U283. We should see
cooler weather on Tuesday (per ECMWF) with precipitation chances
decreasing as the front pushes well to our south. The latest global
model consensus keeps this fairly cool airmass (by August standards)
in place through Thursday with only slow modification by end of the
week. Mid-week temperatures will likely need to be lowered in future
forecast updates if the GFS trends more toward the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the time period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible around HYS from 4Z-8Z. LLJ winds of
210-230 at 30-40 kts are possible for all the airports from around
6Z to as late as 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  95  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  96  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  90  65 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  69  93  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  97  69  96  71 /   0  40  10  20
P28  99  72  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro