000
FXUS63 KDDC 261711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 12z Saturday an upper level trough was located over western
Kansas with ongoing early morning convection observed ahead of
this upper level feature over central Kansas. A surface trough of
low pressure extended southwest from an area of low pressure at
the surface in north central Kansas. A surface cold front appears
to be extending west northwest of the surface low into western
Nebraska with a 850mb frontal boundary appearing to be located
northern Nebraska. Mid 20c temperatures were present at the 850mb
level across all of western Kansas and 700mb temperatures at 12z
Saturday varied from +14c at Topeka to +17c at Dodge City.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

One last hot day is in store for today. A weak trough axis (not
really much of a frontal zone given lack of a temperature
gradient) will support development of widely scattered
thunderstorms. WRF ARW and NMMB cores both suggest storms
developing along roughly a Ulysses to Dighton axis (and perhaps as
far northeast as Ellis) during the 21-00Z time frame late this
afternoon. Much like yesterday evening, we will be looking at
mainly a very localized high wind/microburst threat given the
forecast temperature-dewpoint spreads of 40-45 degF. Should a
small MCS develop, it will move slowly east-southeast through the mid
to late evening hours following roughly the 850-300mb mean wind.
High temperatures are expected to be 99 to 101 along/north of the
Arkansas River with 102 to 105 likely closer to the Oklahoma
border (Red Hills region of Clark-Comanche-Barber Counties at the
higher end of that range).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  71  86  65 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  20  30  20  20
EHA  99  70  86  66 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 102  72  88  67 /  10  30  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28 105  74  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert