000
FXUS63 KDDC 211658
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitude a cig this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71  98  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 100  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 102  73 102  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 101  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke