Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A wedge of warm 850mb to 700mb temperatures that was located just
south of a surface boundary which extended from the Oklahoma
panhandle to northeast Kansas at 00z Monday will lift north today
and by 00z Tuesday this warm air will be located across most of
western and south central Kansas. Based on the the forecast mixing
height and the 00z Tuesday temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb
level from the NAM and GFS it will be another day with highs in
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most of western and south
central Kansas.

In addition to the warming temperatures 700mb moisture will also
be improving across central and north central Kansas which may
give rise to some afternoon convection as CAPE values increase to
1000 to 2000 j/kg, especially across northern Kansas. At this time
it appears the better forcing and instability late today along
with the better low level moisture will be near/north the surface
boundary in north central Kansas so will focus late day convection
around and north of the interstate 70 corridor with more widely
scattered storms being possible further south.

Tonight warm air advection and moisture advection improves near
the nose of a developing low level jet. This will be just north of
a surface boundary that will remain nearly stationary early
tonight across west central and north central Kansas. At the same
time an upper level trough is forecast to cross northwest Kansas.
As a result will increase the chances for convection across west
central and north central Kansas, especially north of where the
+12c to +14c 700mb temperature gradient is forecast to be located
by the NAM and GFS at 06z and 12z Tuesday. Preciptable water
values Monday night are forecast to range from 1.5 to 1.75 across
northern Kansas so some storms tonight may produce periods of
heavy rainfall. Also am unable to rule out the chance for some
storms becoming severe Monday evening north of the interstate 70
corridor base on 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 knots and CAPE values
ranging from 1500 to near 3000 j/kg at 00z Tuesday from the NAM
and GFS. Main hazard at this time appears to be quarter size hail
and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

An upper level trough will move from Nevada and into the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, then into the Central Plains on
Thursday, and will be slow to exit the Central Plains by Saturday
afternoon. New model runs have this upper system slowing down its
progress and this will allow for thunderstorm chances Tuesday into
Saturday, with the best chances from Tuesday night into Thursday
with a cold front. The storms may linger near to east of Dodge City
on Saturday as the upper wave moves eastward. Severe storm chances
do not look all that favorable with fairly weak upper level wind
fields.

Daytime highs will be warm and in the mid to upper 90s ahead of the
front on Tuesday, then in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, cooling
into the 80s for Thursday and Friday. Highs warm back up to around
90 for the Weekend. Overnight lows around 70 on Monday night and
Tuesday night cool into the 60s into the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A weak surface boundary will lift north across western Kansas
overnight. As this boundary moves into west central and north
central Kansas the surface winds will become south southeast at
around 10 knots by 12z Monday. Based on 03z verification from the
NAM and HRRR will stay close to these models on timing of the wind
shift overnight. Southerly winds will increase to around 15 knots
by the early afternoon. BUFR soundings indicating VRF conditions
will prevail overnight and Monday as moisture around the 700mb
level improves during the Day on Monday. Late day instability and
forcing across north central Kansas may also give rise to some
scattered evening convection but given the scatters nature of the
storms late Monday will not include mention of thunderstorms yet
in the Hays 06z tafs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  69  96  69 /  20  20  30  30
GCK  98  67  94  67 /  20  30  30  40
EHA  96  67  93  66 /  10  20  40  30
LBL  98  69  95  68 /  10  20  30  30
HYS  98  68  94  69 /  20  70  40  40
P28 100  73  98  74 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert






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