Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 012350
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST, AND MOST LIKELY CLIP FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY AT GCK AND
DDC, BUT THESE MAY BE AMENDED LATER THIS EVENING IF AN MCS LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO CLIP GCK TERMINAL. ON
THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC, HYS) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18 TO 24Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  20  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  10  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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