000
FXUS63 KDDC 060340
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave trough of low pressure tracking eastward across the
Central Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is transitioning
eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a lee side
trough of low pressure is developing across eastern Colorado. This
has help set up a low level southerly flow across extreme southwest
Kansas, helping to draw moisture into the area with surface dewpoints
in the low to mid 20s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

As the upper level trough axis exits our eastern sections this
evening, the clearing line of clouds will be delayed. The HRRR,
RUC and NAM models all take the precipitation east of our eastern
border by 23z, with the NAM lingering the precip as rain the
longest/latest. I Will have slight PoPs in our extreme eastern
zones of Stafford, Pratt and Barber counties, but only until 01z
this evening. The clouds will clear out as surface high pressure
builds slowly in from the north. The snowfall from today will
likely only add at most an inch of new snow onto the existing snow,
mainly across our eastern half of the forecast area.  Winds should
also diminish to light from the southwest shortly after the clouds
clear out by 01z near the Colorado border, and by 05z in the east
near Pratt.

On Thursday, the high pressure ridge will get squeezed to the
east, and a surface low pressure area will take shape in the
eastern sections of Colorado. This low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies will help pump some warm lower layers of the atmosphere
into southwestern Kansas.  The snow will still be deepest in the
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast area, and high temperatures Thursday
will be cooler over the snow cover.  Thus, under mostly sunny
skies, maximum temperatures Thursday will vary from near 50F in
the LaCrosse, Saint John, and Pratt areas...and up to as high as the
mid 60s near the Colorado border. Winds will start out from the south
at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, and increase in the afternoon as
the pressure gradient increases, to 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Thursday Night:

For Thursday evening, lee-side troughing will continue ahead of
the next fropa. Southerly winds are expected for the overnight
hours, which will keep minimums up and in the 30sF. The warmest is
expected across far southwest Kansas near Elkhart where the
strongest downslope component to the wind vector is expected.

Friday/Friday night:

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting in the wake of the
fropa Friday night and into Saturday. A broad upper level trof
will move across the region through the evening. Cold air
advection will begin by late evening. Top down/warm layer aloft
suggest that the event will start out as rain and then transition
to all snow by Saturday morning. ECMWF/GEM/GEFS are coming in lower
with snowfall amounts than previous runs. Probably attributed to
the broad/progressive nature of the trof and the lack of richer
boundary layer moisture. Still, cannot rule out a few inches or
perhaps a borderline advisory event. Highs will be in the 50s and
lows mainly in the 20s.

Saturday and beyond:

The main synoptic wave will move east with a quasi-zonal flow
becoming established by Monday. The net result is moderating
temperatures and weak lee troughing. As nice warm up is possible
next Monday in the warm sector, followed by cooling with another
fropa.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MVFR conditions will be possible over the next hour over the DDC
and GCK terminals due to the exiting system. Otherwise VFR
conditions should prevail overnight. There is a slight chance for
stratus or fog to form around and after midnight but have decided
to leave the mention of this out of the TAFs. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast to southeast at 5 to 10 knots over
the next couple of hours then to the south southwest around 5
knots by midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  53  34  52 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  23  63  34  51 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  28  66  41  56 /   0   0   0  40
LBL  23  63  38  56 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  19  53  31  49 /   0   0   0  30
P28  14  52  30  56 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Hovorka_42