Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202305
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Tonight is the calm before the storm. Generally tranquil
conditions with light winds. The upper level trof that is to our
west will move closer through the overnight period. Low level
stratus and drizzle is expected to develop from Nebraska southward
into Kansas along the strengthening 850-hPa baroclinic zone. Some
freezing drizzle will be possible by morning as well, mainly
across the I70 corridor. Overnight mins are expected to range from
the 20s northwest to 30s southeast.

For tomorrow, attention then turns to the evening hours as the
storm finally begins to eject out across Kansas. A trowal is
expected to develop northwest of the 700-hPa cyclone, which right
now, looks mainly to remain across northwest Kansas and into
Nebraska. Significant frontogenesis and isentropic lift is
expected in this area with heavy snows. Our northwest zones will
flirt with the southeast edge of the snow axis. Have 1-3" storm
total snow amounts within the advisory area. The advisory still
looks on track.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The storm system will be exiting the area early Monday.
Significant winds are expected in the wake of the system. Will
have to watch out for the potential of reaching high wind warning
criteria, but right now it does not look like to be a slam dunk.
Regardless, N to NW winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph is
possible with blowing snow, especially within the advisory area.
The synoptic system does have rather significant cold air
associated with it, so higher snow ratios with a lighter/fluffy
snow appears reasonable attm.

Beyond Monday, winds will weaken Tuesday as high pressure moves
across the area. Right now, the temperatures across the northwest
zones are probably too warm. This is particularly true if the 1-3"
forecast snow amounts are realized. Elsewhere, 40s are expected.
The overall synoptic pattern Wednesday onwards is a dry pattern
per the EC. A large amplitude trof is possible next Friday.
however, this system might remain north of the forecast area.
Temperatures ahead of this wave look rather warm with widespread
50s likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 454 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

VFR conditions for all TAF sites until 03Z. A storm system in the
four corners region will start to move into the eastern Rockies
late Saturday night and then into the central plains for Sunday.
At first, we will see low clouds with the potential for fog to
develop and possibly some drizzle or freezing drizzle. The low
clouds look to develop at HYS around 03Z and then eventually GCK
and DDC sometime in the 07-09Z time frame. During this time
certain IFR conditions will appear with increasing likelihood of
LIFR conditions. Areas of snow will move out of eastern Colorado
into northwest and west central Kansas after 18Z with increasing
chance of light snow from 21Z on primarily for GCK and HYS. Winds
will start to pick up out of the northwest around the end of the
TAF timeframe and will continue to stay strong through Sunday
night. Visibility issues due to snow and blowing snow could
certainly continue for GCK and HYS past the 0Z time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  48  24  45 /  10  20  40  10
GCK  27  38  23  44 /  10  50  70  10
EHA  31  43  21  48 /   0  40  20   0
LBL  34  49  24  47 /   0  20  30   0
HYS  27  39  26  40 /  20  60  70  30
P28  35  59  29  48 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Tatro


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