Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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