Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 231930
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
...Updated Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
South to southeast winds will continue to increase through this
afternoon, in response to lee trough deepening along I-25 in
Colorado. Gusts near 35 mph are expected, with scattered cirrus.
Most locations will end up within a few degrees of 70 this
Tonight...Windy and much milder than last night. An impressive
low level jet is forecast tonight, with 12z NAM forecasting 850 mb
winds as high as 60-65 kts. As such, winds will remain quite
elevated and gusty overnight, with SE winds continuing to gust
30-35 mph all night. With this mixing, temperatures will struggle
to fall much below 50 at many locations through Monday morning.
Monday...Much warmer. In fact, Monday promises to be the warmest
day of the week. After gusty SW winds for a couple hours after
sunrise, winds will diminish rapidly during the midday hours as
the surface pressure gradient collapses. All model guidance places
a 990-992 mb surface low near Baca county, Colorado by 7 pm, and
expect winds to become SEly in response through Monday afternoon.
Cirrus increasing from the west late in the day. All zones dry.
Went several degrees above MOS guidance, with afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 80s. A delightful spring afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Long term forecast for SW Kansas is quite wet, with multiple
rounds of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms expected.
Running the StormTotalQPF tool over the entirety of the long range
grids yields 1-2 inches of rainfall widespread across the CWA.
High confidence more beneficial rainfall is on the way.
Tuesday...Cooler with north winds. Surface low near Dodge City in
the morning sinks southward to near Childress by 7 pm, with SW KS
temperatures reduced to mid 60s north ranging to mid 70s south.
Most of Tuesday will be dry, but showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected across the western zones by late in the day, in
response to a shortwave approaching from Utah.
Rain showers are likely Tuesday night, as dynamic lift increases
ahead of incoming shortwave. Pop grids are in the likely category
across the western and southern zones and are warranted. Rain
showers end from west to east on Wednesday, as compact shortwave
moves to central Oklahoma. Subsidence behind the departing
shortwave will deliver a clearing sky Wednesday, but despite this,
it will be cooler again with afternoon temperatures ranging from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.
A very brief break of dry weather expected late Wednesday, before
another weaker shortwave in the flow spreads lighter, scattered
rain showers across SW Kansas on Thursday. QPF from this shortwave
will be more limited with weaker forcing and moisture supply more
limited. Clouds and showers will work against temperatures,
keeping them in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
12z ECMWF depicts a strong cold closed 544 dm 500 mb low over SW
Idaho at 7 am Friday, then diving the low to southern Utah by
7 pm. Friday is expected to begin dry, but rain showers will
expand in coverage Friday afternoon, and especially Friday night,
as warm advection forcing increases ahead of strong closed low
(547 dm) approaching from the Four Corners. Will include some
mention of thunder southern zones Friday, but at this early stage
of the game, the warm sector and associated severe potential look
to remain south of SW KS. Elevated hail risk across the SE zones
Rain shower coverage likely to decrease Saturday as cyclone`s dry
slot will be in the vicinity. Strong cyclone strengthens further
as it ejects into the plains of South Dakota (539 dm) on Sunday.
All rain showers will end by Sunday morning, but temperatures will
remain cool and well below late April normals.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
VFR with only some scattered cirrus. Strong south winds this
afternoon with gusts near 30 kts. Winds will remain elevated and
gusty tonight, in response to a strong low level jet with 850 mb
winds as high as 60 kts. Widespread low level wind shear expected
at all airports during the 03z-12z Mon timeframe. SW winds will be
strong and gusty for a few hours after sunrise Monday, followed
by rapidly weakening winds midday Monday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 71 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 71 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 71 50 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 72 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 10
P28 70 46 80 54 / 0 0 0 0