Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030642
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER FLOW, WHICH THE MODELS SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY
TO WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST PROCESS, AS WELL AS
THE GFS MOS TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK, WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10-15KT AFTER
12-15Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH
SMALL HAIL, STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR STORMS AFTER 22Z AT
KGCK AND AFTER 00Z AT DODGE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO 06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  30  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  40  60  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  40  60  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  87  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE


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