Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



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