Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271715
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Thick cloud cover across SW Kansas this afternoon along with
breezy SE winds. HRRR model generates scattered convection across
the western zones by 4-5 pm, then subsequently moving eastward
across the CWA this evening. Storms may intensify some along with
some linear segments, allowing for some cold pool generation and
strong outflow winds. Moisture and instability are limited, but
high-based thunderstorms will pose a primary risk of wind gusts of
50-60 mph through this evening. Strongest cores may have nickel to
quarter size hail, but this is a secondary concern. As shortwave
energy rotates through tonight, shower activity and embedded
thunder will rotate NE into northern Kansas. Dry with partial
clearing expected by sunrise Friday, with lows ranging from the
upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE.

Much of Friday will be dry, as strong closed low sinks south to
the Four Corners by evening. Enough sunshine expected for the
first half of the day to allow for afternoon temperatures well
into the 60s. Diffluence aloft will begin increasing during the
afternoon, with increasing clouds, and scattered rain showers and
embedded thunder across western zones by late afternoon. Any
rainfall through 7 pm Friday appears insignificant. Widespread
stratiform rain, moderate to heavy at times, is expected to arrive
Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Attention was spent mainly to the weekend. A strong trof approaches
the region from the SW. Considerable moisture advection is associated
with this feature and QPF from both the GFS and EC are impressive.
1-2" area wide is possible by the time the storm exits the forecast
district. A growing concern is if low level temperatures will be cold
enough for snow. Models are trending colder, particularly across the
western zones. Accumulating snowfall is not out of the question and
solid advisory amounts (2-5") possible. Will have to watch out near
the CO border, where warning amounts (6+") is indicated by some of
the more aggressive models. The ground is fairly warm. Something to
watch, but would not be surprised if a winter weather advisory was
needed at some point in the near future. Regardless of how this snow
pans out, the area will see beneficial precipitation. Otherwise, will
have to watch out for frost/freeze headlines Sunday morning. Those
areas that see the most accumulating snow could see colder temperatures
than currently forecast. Something to watch as there is high uncertainty
on the snowfall amounts and the related temperatures impacts down the
forecast road.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Southeasterly winds will develop early this morning and then
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by the early afternoon as an
area of low pressure at the surface deepens and moves slowly east
across the panhandle of Oklahoma. These southeasterly winds will
become more northerly early tonight as the surface low moves south
of the area. VFR conditions today will give way to thickening and
lowering ceilings early tonight as moisture begins to improve in
the 1500 to 3000 ft AGL level north of the warm front. Model
sounding trends continue to favor lowering ceilings after midnight
with IFR conditions being possible...mainly in the DDC and HYS
areas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  43  66  38 /  40  40  20  80
GCK  65  40  64  35 /  40  40  30  80
EHA  72  41  66  34 /  20  10  30  80
LBL  73  42  66  38 /  30  20  30  80
HYS  59  43  58  38 /  60  80  20  70
P28  64  47  70  44 /  20  50  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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