Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 241110
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main items of interest for today is the deformation rain band that
is forecast to wrap around the synoptic low and the high wind potential.
The strongest deformation is forecast across eastern Colorado and into
northern Kansas. Therefore, have the highest pops in our north across
the forecast district. Both global and mesoscale guidance have come
into decent agreement with this configuration. The synoptic low is
taking its time before it finally ejects across the Plains tonight.
This should delay the onset on the strongest winds on the backside
of the low. Mixing and an isallobaric response does suggest the need
for a high wind warning. Have cancelled the watch to the east as the
magnitudes look weaker. Have added an end warning buffer since the
low is moving more slowly across the greater region. Rain amounts will
be on the light side as most of the stronger lift and associated instability
with the 500-hPa cold pool is not in our area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The long term models continue to show varying solutions and QPF amounts
in the extended period. The 12Z EC showed this with several inches
of QPF throughout the model domain. The good news in this perpetual
drought is that the 00Z EC run continues in progging heavy precipitation
across SW Kansas. The model does continue to vary with the position
of this heavier axis as the synoptic lows/trofs keep changing with
each run. The bottom line is we might see several bouts of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast district. Moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico shouldn`t be too much of a problem because it looks like
the Gulf will be fairly wide open. Temperatures in the extended look
fairly seasonal and not too warm, which is just what we could use
(a break - from the recent drought and wildfire events).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An area of low pressure at the surface will deepen as it moves
from southeast Colorado into northwest Oklahoma today. As this
surface low passes south of all three taf sites today the gusty
southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots will back to the east northeast
between 15z and 18z Friday. Gusty north winds of near 30 knots are
then expected at the GCK area between 18z and 21z. At DDC and HYS
the gusty north winds will be near 25 knots and these stronger
winds are expected after 23z Friday. Once these strong north winds
develop they are expected to continue through at least 03z before
beginning to subside.

There will be a chance for afternoon showers or even an isolated
thunderstorm, especially in the GCK and HYS areas. Model soundings
this morning indicating VFR ceiling can be expected today. MVFR
conditions are then expected to spread into western Kansas
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  37  65  40 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  56  34  66  40 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  54  34  67  40 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  59  34  67  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  65  38  61  39 /  30  20  10   0
P28  71  42  65  41 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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