Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

A surface cold front will cross western Kansas early this morning
as an upper level trough crosses the West Central High Plains.
Along and just north of this southeast moving cold front early
this morning showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing
periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be
possible...mainly across north central Kansas. This thunderstorm
activity will likely continue as the upper level trough crosses
western Kansas through noon. Will continue to monitor how far
southwest these storms will develop along this surface boundary
early this morning but at this time it appears that these
thunderstorms will stay north and east of Dodge City.

As the rain tapers off and the upper level trough moves into
central Kansas early this afternoon an area of high pressure at
the surface will start to build into western Kansas. A brief
period of gusty winds behind the surface cold front this afternoon
will taper off and become light overnight. Given where lighter
winds are forecast towards daybreak and clear skies am currently
favoring undercutting guidance for lows tonight across western

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

On Thursday one upper level trough will be lifting northeast
across the Mississippi Valley early in the day as another, weaker,
upper wave begins to cross the Central Rockies. As the next upper
level system crosses eastern Colorado and western Kansas late day
and early tonight there will be a chance for some scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Although there will be a slight chance
for convection across all of western Kansas Thursday night the
location currently appearing most favorable for thunderstorms will
be just north of a surface boundary which will extend from
southeast Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas. In this region the
there will be better moisture return, lift, and instability based
on the latest GFS and NAM.

Any thunderstorm that does develop further north ahead of the
upper wave in easterly Colorado late day is expected to weaken as
they move across western Kansas overnight. At this time severe
weather is not expected from these storms overnight but should a
few of the stronger storms further south move across extreme
southwest Kansas early in the evening there there will be a chance
for heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Late Friday/Friday night another surface boundary, weak cold
front, will cross western Kansas as an upper level trough moves
across the north and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will
be possible again ahead of this upper wave late day/early evening,
especially ahead of the upper level trough which will move across
central Kansas.

On Saturday an area of high pressure will quickly cross the
central Plains as a trough of low pressure begins to deepening
over eastern Colorado. This eastern Colorado surface trough will
be the focus for late day thunderstorms as the next weak upper
level disturbance moves out of the Rockies. These storms will
again weaken after sunset as they move east northeast into
portions of west/northwestern Kansas.

The westerly flow aloft will become more southwesterly late this
weekend and then continue through early next week. Subtle waves
embedded in this developing southwesterly flow is expected, and as
these upper level disturbances crosses the Western High Plains
from Sunday night through the early next week there will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms...almost each day.

Despite a weak cold front on Friday night there will be little to
no cooling expected behind this front on Saturday given the
westerly down slope flow and warming 850mb temperatures. Highs
this weekend through early next week are expected to be mainly in
the 90 to 95 degree range.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Outflow from convection over central Kansas had already
resulted in a northerly wind shift ahead of the front at
KDDC and KGCK. As the front passes by 14-17z, winds will be from
the north at 10-15 kts. MVFR CIGS will improve to VFR this morning
with daytime heating.


DDC  87  60  89  64 /  10  10   0  40
GCK  85  58  86  63 /  10  10  10  40
EHA  86  61  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
LBL  89  62  89  65 /  10  10  10  40
HYS  83  60  88  64 /  30  10   0  30
P28  91  65  90  67 /  20  20   0  50




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.