Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 192000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  70  97  71  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  69  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  70  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0   0  20  20
P28  74  98  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke





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