Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 280518
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016
Convective debris from last night`s thunderstorms is clearing
nicely this afternoon, with E/SE upslope flow expected to
reestablish by this evening. 12z NAM, and several of the CAMs,
develop thunderstorms in NW KS by 7 pm, with a loosely organized
complex then heading south into the northern CWA this evening.
Surface moisture is quite elevated, with a dewpoint of 70 here at
the office as of noon, with a dewpoint of 70 as far west as
Syracuse. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg widespread across SW KS already as
of noon. So, instability will be more than sufficient to sustain
another storm complex tonight. Easterly surface winds beneath
modest NW flow aloft should allow for some storm rotation, at
least initially. SPC`s broad marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities
through tonight look sufficient for now, but the risk for
marginally severe hail/wind will increase whereever the complex
decides to evolve. Increased thunderstorm coverage in the grids
this evening and tonight, to account for the mesoscale CAM and NAM
solutions. Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton
county to the lower 70s in Barber county.
Thursday...Overnight convection expected to dissipate by around
sunrise. Most locations dry for most of Thursday again, as
atmosphere again recovers from overnight convective overturning.
Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great
Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft. Synoptic
pattern strongly favors a strong MCS to traverse SW KS, and the
models have been hinting at this for several days now. Shear and
instablity combination will ignite severe thunderstorms across
NW KS by 7 pm Thursday, with a severe MCS expected to track SE
into SW KS Thursday evening. Damaging winds appear likely, and
agree with SPC upgrading to an enhanced severe risk for this
severe wind threat. Outdoor activities Thursday evening will be
impacted by these strong to severe storms, including Dodge City
Days festivities. Will begin social media and DSS coverage of this
expected MCS to begin spreading the word.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016
Large mesoscale convective system (MCS) expected to be ongoing
across Kansas early Friday morning. Most models including the
12z ECMWF redevelop convection across SW KS Friday afternoon, but
mesoscale details on how outflow boundaries will interact is
unknown. If atmosphere can recover by Friday evening, marginally
severe wind/hail is possible, but uncertainty is high. Confident of
cooler temperatures on Friday, with convective debris clouds and an
east component to surface winds holding most locales in the 80s.
Saturday through Monday...The trend will be for afternoons to get
progressively hotter, and for rain chances to dwindle, as high
pressure aloft spreads east into the central plains. Heights and
850 mb temperatures climb daily, with afternoon temperatures
ending up near 100 Monday August 1st.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Convection moving across northwest Kansas as of 05z is forecast
to weak but still cross portions of southwest and north central
Kansas late tonight. Based on the latest HRRR this area of
weakening convection is expected to cross the Hays and Garden City
areas between 07z and 10z. If these storms hold together they will
cross the Dodge City area between 10z and 12z Thursday. Ceilings
may briefly lower into the MVFR category early this morning with
these storms. Based on the NAM and HRRR model soundings around 12z
the fog potential overnight appears small.
A cluster of thunderstorms, some capable of producing heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds, will be possible at all three taf
sites after 21z Thursday. Track and timing is still somewhat
unclear so will not get too detailed on this.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 92 66 86 / 40 20 80 60
GCK 66 92 66 86 / 40 20 60 40
EHA 66 96 66 93 / 10 10 30 20
LBL 67 97 69 92 / 20 10 30 30
HYS 67 89 65 84 / 40 60 70 40
P28 71 95 69 87 / 10 20 70 60