Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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797
FXUS63 KDDC 221730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Thick cirrus spreading across Kansas at midday in response to
divergence aloft. South winds will remain strong and gusty through
early evening, in response to 995 mb surface leeside low in
Nebraska. Some gusts near 35 mph, especially near Garden City,
where they have already occurred.

Weak closed low and associated vorticity maxima will arrive on
the KS/CO border by 7 pm. Lift ahead of this feature will interact
with what limited instability there is, to generate isolated
convection across SW KS through tonight. Kept pop grids
conservative, limited mainly to the isolated/slight chance
category with lift weak and moisture lackluster. Still, at least a
small chance of a shower/storm appears warranted in most zones
through tonight. South winds will remain elevated overnight, in
response to a strong LLJ and 850 mb winds to near 50 kts. With the
mixing and enhanced cloud cover with passing shortwave, low
temperatures will be warmer than normal by several degrees, with
upper 60s common Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...Hot and windy. Surface low deepens in NW Kansas through
the day, resulting in strong, gusty SW winds of 20-35 mph by
afternoon. With this downslope component, and models cranking
850 mb temperatures about 5C tomorrow, followed the warmest
guidance with max temperatures in the mid 90s. Models develop
moderate instability across the eastern zones Tuesday afternoon,
east of a dryline projected to bisect the CWA along a Wakeeney-
Dodge City-Liberal line by late afternoon. Best shear/instability
combination expected to be in NE KS and eastern Nebraska. For
SW KS, kept pops limited to mainly slight chance/isolated along
and east of the dryline, with forcing more limited and capping
increasing (700 mb temps near 14C by evening). Highest probability
of a strong to marginally severe storm will be across the NE zones
Tuesday afternoon, per marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities from
SPC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Small thunderstorm chances will shift eastward by Tuesday as the
shortwave trough mentioned in the short term discussion continues
to move eastward. This system will be coming through fairly early
in the day so that the best potential for storms will be with
daytime heating in central and south central Kansas before 00z.
Low level moisture will have surged northward to Pratt and Hays by
with early Tuesday afternoon with dewpoints well into the 60s. Bulk
shear values look marginal for rotating storms; and since winds
are not expected to be backed at lower levels, the tornado threat
is very low. However, given surface based CAPE values as high as
2500 j/kg and increasing high level winds, large hail and
damaging winds are possible. High temperatures will increase to
the lower to middle 90s by Tuesday given the surface lee troughing
and south winds. Thunderstorms are also possible from Wednesday
into early Thursday as the next upper level trough approaches from
the west and the aforementioned cold front pushes southward out
of the northern plains. These storms could be severe as well.
High temperatures along interstate 70 will be cooler by Wednesday
in the 80s, with some lower 90s possible in south central Kansas
depending on the speed of the front. Cooler highs in the 70s to
lower 80s can be expected by Thursday in the wake of the cold
front. Thunderstorms can`t be ruled out by Friday and Saturday as
additional shortwave energy moves across the plains and low level
warm advection resumes. Thunderstorm chances will linger into the
weekend

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Strong south winds will impact aviation this afternoon into the
early evening hours, in response to 995 mb surface low in NW
Nebraska. South winds of 20-30 kts will be routine through sunset,
with some gusts near 35 kts, especially at/near GCK. Around
00z Tue, NAM/HRRR models suggest isolated -TSRA may develop across
the western zones, perhaps into the central zones by 06z.
Convective coverage will be isolated, with little confidence of
impacts at the terminals, so opted to keep out of the 18z TAFs for
now. VCTS possible. GFS suggests isolated -TSRA near HYS during
the 09-12z Tue time frame. After 06z Tue, widespread LLWS
expected, in response to strong LLJ with 850 mb winds as high as
50 kts. Surface winds relax near sunrise, followed by strong S/SW
winds resuming quickly by 15z Tue.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  68  94  69 /   0  20  20  20
GCK  88  67  95  65 /  10  30  20  20
EHA  86  65  95  64 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  88  69  94  68 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  88  68  92  67 /   0  20  20  30
P28  87  69  91  72 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



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