Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 302044
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED, WITH WEAK, MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANY SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE 101ST MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PLUME FROM THE TROPICS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AS WELL AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THESE
COULD VENTURE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 80S ON FRIDAY (PERHAPS 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE AT GCK WITH DAYTIME HEATING, LEAVING A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR/VFR DECK. A SCATTERED MVFR/VFR DECK AT
KHYS/KDDC MAY BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND NIGHT WILL PROBABLY STAY WELL WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE CHANGEABLE AND GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  65  89 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  65  89  64  88 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  63  85  64  86 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  66  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  63  91  66  93 /  10  10  20  20
P28  68  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH


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