Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 061833
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Two storm systems will impact the Central Plains providing
precipitation opportunities across portions of the southwestern
Kansas region. The first storm system will be during the Friday
Night/Saturday time frame. We have cut back on the POPs for the
Friday (day) period in favor of a slower evolving 500-700mb trough
axis/zone of frontogenesis per the latest GFS/ECMWF. This event will
most likely be entirely in the form of snow as the thermodynamic
profile should fall entirely below zero prior to onset of
accumulating precipitation. The rather positively tilted nature of
the overall trough along with the translational speed of the trough
will not support a heavy precipitation event. We are looking at an
event supporting one to perhaps two inches of snow (maybe isolated
higher amounts toward the Colorado border) which is in line with the
The next storm system will develop across the Rockies mid next week.
While the synoptic and all-important subsynoptic aspects of the
mid-week storm system are still rather unclear, the ECMWF and GFS
models do point at the potential for a slightly higher impact event.
Timing is also still a huge question as the GFS and ECMWF differ
fairly significantly in the onset, duration, and ending of the
mid-week storm. It looks like this storm will also be mostly in the
form of snow as it stands now, with significant low level cold
advection occurring before the important 700mb zone of frontogenesis
moves across southwestern Kansas.
In between these storms, Sunday and Monday look to be rather mild
with mid level westerly downslope momentum prevailing. Allblend
guidance of highs 62 Sunday and 71 Monday (Dodge City) look good
enough and no change was necessary off the Allblend guidance.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will
quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds
will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will
fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This
could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How
dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop.
I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 58 27 41 / 0 10 50 40
GCK 37 56 27 47 / 0 20 40 40
EHA 42 62 30 46 / 0 20 50 50
LBL 40 63 29 43 / 0 20 50 50
HYS 33 51 26 43 / 0 20 40 30
P28 33 60 30 37 / 0 10 50 50