Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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