Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190252
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
952 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak cold is pushing slowly
southward across west central and central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A beautiful day is occurring in Southwest Kansas, offering a
great chance to get outside this afternoon. Today will be the
hottest day of the week, with temperatures 10+ degrees above
normal and reaching in the lower to mid-80s. Skies will be clear,
except for a few high clouds flowing into Western Kansas due to
orographic lifting from the Rockies. A weak trough axis is
currently located from Johnson City to Garden City to Hays, making
winds in Southwest Kansas light today (under 10 mph), and in some
areas, calm for a few hours this afternoon. Tonight, winds will
remain light, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid-40s.

Tomorrow afternoon, an upper level shortwave moves through Western
Kansas, which will aid in deepening the lee trough in Eastern
Colorado. This will increase the pressure gradient and create
gusty conditions for our region. With limited boundary level
moisture, we will remain dry tomorrow. Temperatures will reach 80
degrees in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Southwest Kansas will have a windy end to the week as the lee
troughing continues to deepen in Colorado. Friday will be the
windiest day/evening. Have collaborated with neighboring offices
to increase the wind, with forecasted gusts up to 35 to 40 mph
Friday afternoon. H85 moisture from the Gulf will start to flow
into our eastern zones in the afternoon and with mixing, surface
dewpoints will increase. The GFS and ECMWF hint at a shower or two
Friday afternoon/evening near Medicine Lodge. Even with limited
instability, they can`t be ruled out. Have left what the model
blend provided. Temperatures Friday will reach the upper 80s.

On Saturday, a high amplitude trough axis will reach western
Kansas. This will aid in pushing the low in Colorado, and
attendant cold front, through the region. Sufficient instability
and moisture will remain in our eastern zones, and there is a
potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Barber and Pratt
counties look to receive the majority of rain, and this is only if
the cold front meets instability and moisture in that area. Storms
could form further east as Central and Eastern Kansas will be the
main target of this system for this region. Wind dies down late
Saturday evening after frontal passage. The high for Saturday
will reach the mid 60s to mid 70s. Saturday night, the low will
vary from mid- 30s to mid-40s.

On Sunday, upper level ridging sets in, and aside from a dry/weak,
cold front on Monday night, surface high pressure will dominate
the long term with temperatures near normal for October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Aviation weather will continue to be tranquil through the period
with VFR flight category throughout in continued dry atmosphere
(other than high cirrus clouds). Winds will increase by late
morning as a leeside trough reforms and strengthens back west
across eastern Colorado. By afternoon Thursday, expect sustained
winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with gusts 25 to 30 knots at
times. It will be even windier on Friday as the next storm system
approaches the Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  80  56  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  42  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  80  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  80  57  77 /   0   0   0  10
P28  49  80  57  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Umscheid



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