Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Shortwave trough passing over SW KS presently, with associated
frontal/outflow boundary making headway throgh the SE CWA.
Instability is mounting ahead of this wind shift across the SE
zones, with visible satellite imagery showing cumulus field
becoming agitated east of Dodge City. A rather robust severe
threat will evolve this afternoon across central Kansas (mainly
Wichita`s CWA), and will need to monitor Stafford, Pratt and
Barber counties over the next few hours for any convective
initiation. Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg as of
noon, with bulk shear near 40 kts. Medicine Lodge currently 84/70,
with backed SE surface winds. Where/if the warm sector can hang
on in our CWA (most likely SE Barber county near Kiowa) some rapid
thunderstorm development is possible. Otherwise, somewhat
cooler/drier NW winds of 15-25 mph will continue this afternoon
with highs primarily in the mid 80s.

Tonight...Clear with light and variable winds. Weak surface high
settles into SW KS, offering decent radiational cooling for
mid-August standards. Free air conditioning tonight, with
temperatures falling into the upper 50s across the northern and
western zones.

Thursday...Return flow commences, with gentle S/SE winds of
10-20 mph by afternoon. Models prog this return flow to be
relatively dry, with surface dewpoints only in the lower to
mid 50s. This, combined with a lack of forcing, results in a dry
forecast for all zones for all of Thursday through 7 pm. Afternoon
highs in the 86-92 range. Another thunderstorm complex (MCS)
expected to impact at least the southern zones near the Oklahoma
border Thursday night/Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

On Thursday one upper level trough will be lifting northeast
across the Mississippi Valley early in the day as another, weaker,
upper wave begins to cross the Central Rockies. As the next upper
level system crosses eastern Colorado and western Kansas late day
and early tonight there will be a chance for some scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Although there will be a slight chance
for convection across all of western Kansas Thursday night the
location currently appearing most favorable for thunderstorms will
be just north of a surface boundary which will extend from
southeast Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas. In this region the
there will be better moisture return, lift, and instability based
on the latest GFS and NAM.

Any thunderstorm that does develop further north ahead of the
upper wave in easterly Colorado late day is expected to weaken as
they move across western Kansas overnight. At this time severe
weather is not expected from these storms overnight but should a
few of the stronger storms further south move across extreme
southwest Kansas early in the evening there there will be a chance
for heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Late Friday/Friday night another surface boundary, weak cold
front, will cross western Kansas as an upper level trough moves
across the north and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will
be possible again ahead of this upper wave late day/early evening,
especially ahead of the upper level trough which will move across
central Kansas.

On Saturday an area of high pressure will quickly cross the
central Plains as a trough of low pressure begins to deepening
over eastern Colorado. This eastern Colorado surface trough will
be the focus for late day thunderstorms as the next weak upper
level disturbance moves out of the Rockies. These storms will
again weaken after sunset as they move east northeast into
portions of west/northwestern Kansas.

The westerly flow aloft will become more southwesterly late this
weekend and then continue through early next week. Subtle waves
embedded in this developing southwesterly flow is expected, and as
these upper level disturbances crosses the Western High Plains
from Sunday night through the early next week there will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms...almost each day.

Despite a weak cold front on Friday night there will be little to
no cooling expected behind this front on Saturday given the
westerly down slope flow and warming 850mb temperatures. Highs
this weekend through early next week are expected to be mainly in
the 90 to 95 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Good flying weather expected through this TAF cycle. BKN stratus
and stratocumulus near HYS will continue to diminish to a
scattered cumulus field this afternoon. Shortwave trough
presently over western Kansas at midday will progress eastward
this afternoon. Any convection associated with this will be
restricted to near Pratt/Medicine Lodge this afternoon, and will
remain south and east of the TAF terminals. Modestly gusty NW
winds of 15-25 kts will continue through 00z. Weak surface high
settles into SW KS overnight, with winds becoming light and
variable through sunrise Thursday. After 15z Thu, SKC with light
return flow, south winds near 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  58  89  64 /  10  10   0  40
GCK  84  57  86  63 /  10  10  10  40
EHA  85  61  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
LBL  87  62  90  65 /  10  10  10  40
HYS  82  58  89  64 /  30  10   0  30
P28  91  65  90  67 /  20  20   0  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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