Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252316
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
616 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH AROUND 30 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN H5 VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
OUTSIDE SHOT FOR PRECIP TO EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A JET CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ABOUT A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP RAISE H85
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST INTO THE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S(F) ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWER 80S(F) NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING TREND DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LOOK FOR THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALSO DIMINISH BY AROUND
SUNSET. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES. MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
BUT WINDS COULD INCREASE INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  63  33  68 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  27  63  33  70 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  31  63  35  72 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  29  63  34  71 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  27  60  31  63 /  20  10  20  10
P28  33  62  34  63 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD


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