Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121804
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

A warm advection pattern was developing this morning as winds
resumed from the southeast. A disturbance was moving slowly
eastward across the southern high plains with a large batch of
showers and thunderstorms south of Kansas. Rain showers were
developing early this morning over parts of southwest Kansas
as well. The next upper level disturbance in northwesterly flow
is expected to move southward from Canada into the northern plains
by Sunday afternoon and into the Great Lakes region by Sunday
night. The large scale flow pattern is expected to change by
Monday and Tuesday, with zonal flow developing at mid to high
levels along with embedded upper level disturbances approaching
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move across southern Kansas today. The models differ on how
far north this precipitation will make it. The clouds and
scattered rain will keep temperatures from rising out of the
70s from Dodge City south to the state line with slightly
warmer temps near 80 near Interstate 70. Temperatures tonight
will be held up by cloud cover with lows in the lower to middle
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Embedded disturbances in westerly flow along with abundant low
level moisture will lead to more chances for thunderstorms into
Thursday along with continued moderate temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s for highs. The best chance of storms Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night may be from Dodge City west to the Colorado
state line. A few of the storms could possibly be severe early
to mid week. The best chance of thunderstorms may be Tuesday and
Tuesday night as a fairly strong disturbance passes through
western Kansas. A drying trend should commence by next weekend as
upper level ridging develops across the Rockies and high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The area remains under a conditionally unstable atmosphere this
afternoon, with continuing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Areal coverage shouldn`t warrant more than vcsh through the
afternoon and will remove the mention in TAFs after 00 UTC.
Ceilings become a bigger impact overnight as the HRRR/RAP take
the ceilings into the LIFR category especially toward the 12Z
timeframe. Low ceilings are likely to persist much of Sunday
especially for GCK/LBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  63  82  64 /  50  20  20  30
GCK  77  63  81  63 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  77  63  82  63 /  30  20  20  40
LBL  76  63  81  64 /  50  20  20  40
HYS  81  62  82  65 /  30  10  10  20
P28  79  64  83  67 /  60  30  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell



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