Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BECOMES MORE TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST. A
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DECREASED MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, LOOK
FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) TONIGHT. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE
90S(F) TO NEAR 100F CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FROM 98 TO AROUND 100
IS FORECAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 102 IN THE MEDICINE
LODGE AREA. THE HEAT CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION THAT WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MORE
CHANCES WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES INTO FRIDAY. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED BY
SOME NEIGHBORS RATHER THAN SUPERBLEND FOR STORM CHANCES INTO THE 4TH
OF JULY WEEKEND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BLENDED WITH LESSER CHANCES
WITH NEIGHBORS. HIGHS THEN COOL BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20KT TUESDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  65  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  95  65  97  71 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  93  65  98  72 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  95  65  98  73 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  95  65 100  72 /   0   0   0  10
P28  97  67 100  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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