Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM AND GFS EVEN HINT AT PERIOD OF
IMPROVING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. INITIALLY DRIZZLE WILL
BE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND IMPROVING
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS THERE
WILL BE PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY. AS
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. NET 24 HOUR
850MB TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 1C TO 3C. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND AND
DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMER MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FURTHER EAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS COOLER
THAN THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.

WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES ON SATURDAY AND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SMALL, HOWEVER THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  30  39 /   0  20  30  20
GCK  25  47  28  39 /   0  10  30  20
EHA  32  50  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  30  48  30  42 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  20  40  25  35 /   0  10  30  30
P28  25  42  32  40 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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