Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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240
FXUS63 KDDC 220507
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning
eastward across the Central Plains. Near the surface, high pressure
extends from the Colorado Rockies eastward into the Western High
Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

As for this afternoon, the main severe weather threat should be to
the east of our area, as the cold front should be just east of the
Barber/Pratt county area by the time of convective initiation. This
is not to say a brief period of rain and lightning won`t be
possible near Medicine Lodge, however the time period won`t be
long enough for for anything near severe limits from discreet
cells moving quickly out of the area.

Strong mid tropospheric subsidence will lead to clearing skies. The
surface winds should play a large role in how cool the temperatures
fall overnight. Models are running much warmer than the group of
various MOS output, especially the EKDMOS and ECMWF mos products
which would reach even hard freeze type lows in the far western
counties. Have extended the freeze warning, south to the panhandle
for early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A dry northwest upper flow pattern is shown by ECMWF beginning
Sunday though the end of the regular workweek. This will lead to a
period of fall like highs and lows. An upper trough digging through
the northern plains into the Missouri valley will drive a cold front
across the area Tuesday, bringing colder highs to a windy afternoon
which may not exceed the 60s. Warmer downslope will quickly return
Wednesday, before Thursday yet another stronger cold front returns
with more lasting cooler temperatures extending into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
evening. Light northwesterly winds will persist over night as
surface high pressure across the Colorado Rockies begins to extend
southeastward into the South Plains. Winds will remain fairly light
while becoming more west-southwesterly during the day Sunday as
surface high pressure continues to edge southeastward into west
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  72  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  32  72  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  70  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  33  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  72  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  73  45  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-
043>045-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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