Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200550
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Near record heat this afternoon, on the last full day of "winter".
Expecting low to mid 90s at most locales for maximum temperatures.
Some record highs for today are very tough to beat (Dodge City,
Medicine Lodge 98 set in 1907), but Garden City`s record of 93 set
in 1972 is in jeopardy.

Tonight...continued unseasonably mild. Lows Monday morning from
the mid 40s to the mid 50s (normal is low to mid 30s). A very weak
frontal boundary slides through SW KS overnight, with a northerly
wind shift by 7 am Monday. Dewpoints will remain elevated near
50 across the SE zones, and with potential for moisture to pool
along the boundary, included a mention of areas of fog across the
SE zones for several hours Monday morning.

Monday...Weak cool advection on NE winds of 10-20 mph will shave
temperatures down several degrees, but certainly still way above
normal. Expecting a range of mid 70s near Hays to upper 80s along
the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Some much more interesting weather (finally) showing up for Kansas
this week, particularly the Thursday-Friday time frame. For the
first time in weeks, actually have some opportunities for badly
needed rainfall to consider.

Tuesday...Much cooler. Strong but dry cold front backdoors into
SW KS, with a reinforcing shot of clouds, cold air advection and
NE winds. Afternoon max temps reduced to the 50s (normal) for most
zones. Oklahoma and Colorado border will hang onto the 60s, while
the Hays vicinity struggles to reach 50. NE winds gusting to
30 mph will add to the brisk change. Model guidance remains
consistent with post-frontal scattered light rain showers Tuesday
night, and kept the chance pops in the grids offered by the model
blend. QPF will be limited with any showers that develop, less
than 0.10 inch.

Wednesday...Cooler air remains wedged into SW Kansas, with another
seasonably chilly day. A cloudy sky and easterly wind components
will also act to hold down temperatures, primarily in the 50s.
Dry with broad ridging aloft and no forcing.

Much more interesting pattern emerges beginning Thursday, as a
strong closed low finally develops to our west near the Four
Corners. Models have slowed down the forward translation of this
system, which is usually a good thing for SW KS precipitation.
Strong moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico almost certainly
will bring widespread stratus, fog and drizzle to at least the
eastern half of the CWA Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Most
models are displaying their light drizzle QPF signatures
especially east of Dodge City.

12z ECMWF places a strong closed low near the Four Corners around
7 pm Thursday, with associated strong lee cyclogenesis (990 mb)
near Limon, Colorado. Dryline will be established by afternoon and
arc from the surface low southward through far SW Kansas into the
W TX. GFS shows excellent agreement with this scenario, so on
paper, this appears to be the first severe weather setup for the
high plains this season. In fact, GFS forcing is quite intense as
its upper low intensifies upon its approach to SW Kansas and the
shortwave assumes a negative tilt. With kinematics looking
healthy, the outcome of this thunderstorm event will be dependent
on the quality of moisture return. While some models are rather
loath in this regard, the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm for
March, and have noted near-70 dewpoints already in S TX this
afternoon. Even if moisture ends up being marginalized, strong
forcing may generate a squall line across SW Kansas Thursday
afternoon/evening. Accepted FB pops for this period, in the
scattered category for now. This is the best chance of rain we`ve
had in a long time; let`s hope for the best.

Models also agree that strong closed low will cross SW Kansas on
Friday. After a strong warmup on Thursday, temperatures will cool
on Friday courtesy of scattered showers and clouds. Beneficial
wraparound rain is expected in the deformation axis of this
cyclone, but models disagree where this will be located this far
out. The NE zones have the best shot, and that is where likely
pops are in the grids Friday afternoon.

Models are in continued good agreement with shortwave progression
into next weekend, with ridging and dry weather Saturday, with the
next more northerly track shortwave clipping the northern zones
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

No expected aviation impacts due to fog or ceilings over at least
the next 18+ hours. Light northerly surface winds and clear sky
expected though about late morning. Then boundary layer mixing
provides weak mid teens range (kts) gusts through the afternoon. It
is possible some stratus develop begins toward the very late part of
this TAF period, i.e. toward 06 UTC Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Unseasonably hot temperatures are driving relative humidities into
the 8-15% range this afternoon, but winds are only occasionally
gusting to near 20 mph, keeping the fire danger in check. NE winds
of 10-20 mph will cool temperatures slightly on Monday, allowing min
RH to improve some (15% far SW, 30% east). Much cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday will reduce the fire danger significantly. A
strong cyclone is expected to produce strong south winds gusting
near 40 mph on Thursday; fire weather zones behind the expected
dryline may reach red flag criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  83  46  58 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  46  83  44  59 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  51  84  48  70 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  44  87  51  64 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  47  74  43  51 /   0   0  10  20
P28  53  85  51  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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