Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050032
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
732 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEBRASKA WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
AROUND 12 CELSIUS WHICH MAY INHIBIT AN MCS FROM DEVELOPING. TIMING
OF THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE FROM 10 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH QUARTER TO
LARGER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH STORMS IN THE HAYS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22
MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MILD AND FROM 68 TO 71 DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION AFFECTING THE THREE TERMINALS (GCK,
DDC, HYS) IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. PREVAILING CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH WINDS IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  71  85 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  69  98  71  82 /  10  10  30  60
EHA  70  98  69  81 /  20  10  30  40
LBL  70  97  72  83 /  10  10  20  70
HYS  69  99  72  82 /  20  20  40  60
P28  71  97  74  89 /  20  20  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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