Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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