000
FXUS63 KDDC 010953
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2013

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

This evenings upper air analysis showed a 130 knot jet at 250
millibars extending from northern Baja California over the
southwestern states into central Oklahoma. An extensive swath of
cirrus associated with this jet was spreading into far southern
Kansas early this morning. Otherwise, upper level westerly flow
continued over much of North America with a broad flat trough
located over eastern Canada into the Midwestern states while a ridge
was over western Canada into the Pacific northwest.  A weak
shortwave trough was moving through the northern and central
Rockies. Farther southwest, an upper trough extended from southern
California offshore to an upper low off the Baja coast. In the lower
levels, a fairly warm airmass extended from the Colorado front range
across western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

The shortwave trough over the Rockies will continue eastward over
the central High Plains today. The main effect this will have is to
shunt the high level cloudiness southeastward away from southern
Kansas by this afternoon. Will carry partly to mostly cloudy skies
across the southern two tiers of counties through this morning. The
weak surface low pressure trough will also get pushed east this
afternoon and tonight. Fairly light surface winds will be in store
for today with the winds switching to the west tonight.  Even with
limited daytime mixing, temperatures should climb into the upper 50s
to around 60 this afternoon. The westerly winds tonight should help
to keep temperatures from bottoming out and have raised overnight
lows to around or a degree or two warmer than the MAV mos guidance
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
dipping southeastward into the Pacific Northwest Monday then quickly
kicking eastward across the Northern Rockies into the Northern
Plains Tuesday. This system will help plunge an arctic air mass
into the Western High Plains by midweek. Although upper level
dynamics will become more favorable as the front approaches,
including an intensifying jet streaming out of the Southern
Rockies, drier conditions are expected to prevail through mid week
with a lack of moisture in the lower/mid levels. Temperatures will
be well above normal Monday as lee side troughing strengthens
resulting in a low level south to southwesterly flow across
western Kansas. This will draw warmer air northward into the area
with H85 temperatures climbing above 10C across central and
southwest Kansas. Should see highs mainly up into the 60s(F)
Monday afternoon. Much colder temperatures will arrive by
Wednesday as an arctic air mass spills southward into western
Kansas dropping temperatures well below normal through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VFR conditions will prevail through this taf period. A very weak
surface trough of low pressure will extend across western Kansas
through the period, resulting in light and variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  32  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  30  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  34  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  31  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  57  31  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  60  31  68  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard