Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 302052
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS
CLOSER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON; AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
SIMPLY GROW UPSCALE OR WHETHER RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
SEVERE. IF CONVECTION IS DISCRETE, THEN VERY LARGE HAIL (>2.75")
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF THE WIND
AND HIGH CAPE VALUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY, ALL THE COOL OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY
HAMPER STORM SEVERITY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
POSSIBLE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ON SATURDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAY EVENINGS CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE
HAYS TERMINAL FROM 06Z-08Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  98  68  92 /  10  20  20  40
GCK  71  98  69  90 /  10  10  20  40
EHA  71  99  70  91 /   0  20  20  40
LBL  72 100  71  92 /   0  20  20  40
HYS  73  97  68  90 /  10  10  20  30
P28  75 100  71  94 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD


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