000
FXUS63 KDDC 051717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

At 12z Thursday a 1400-160kt 300mb jet extended from northeast
Colorado into the western Great Lakes. Another upper level jet was
located near the based of the 500mb trough that was positioned from
southern California into southwest Montana. A -25 to -32c 500mb
thermal trough was located near the four corners region. A surface
to 850mb ridge axis was located across from western Nebraska into
western Oklahoma and a surface cold front extended from eastern
Colorado south southeast across eastern New Mexico into west
central Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

The layer of cold air will only grow deeper across Kansas this
afternoon as the upper western trough digs into the southern
Rockies. As the cold air deepens aloft, increasingly easterly
upslope surface flow will develop across western Kansas as the
surface anticyclone center advances southward. Our region of the
state will be under the forcing influence of both Q-vector
convergence and to some degree low and mid level frontogenesis as
well. Several hours of forced ascent aided by weak upslope surface
flow through an efficiently saturated dendritic growth zone could
result in significantly higher snowfall amounts especially in areas
west and east Dodge City, where the mesoscale models have shown the
best consensus for better snowfall amounts. The balance between true
QPF and these expected 20:1 snow ratios easily yield the potential
for snowfall in excess of 2 inches. If QPF values verify closer to
what the WRF had indicated (the WRF has caught onto faster and
verified better with  winter precipitation episodes on at least 2
events this season) then even higher amounts are likely, to the
higher end of advisory criteria.

Temperatures later tonight will be more challenging as cloud cover
will make an influence of radiational cooling. Wind speeds will
weaken as the high advances farther south, however, wind chill
indices will likely fall to below -10 and push the limits of wind
chill advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Friday night will see the strong arctic high pressure system shift
slightly to the east, with a southerly flow returning at the surface
in our western zones near the Colorado border.  A trough of low
pressure will form in eastern Colorado Friday afternoon, and migrate
into far western Kansas overnight Friday night.  On Saturday, a mid
level wave of low pressure will cross from the Rockies into the
Plains, and may bring a little snow to far western Kansas by noon
time, near the trough.  The mid level lift and instability will move
across the rest of southwestern Kansas and spread light snow into
central Kansas Saturday afternoon.  The large upper level trough at
H5 will slowly move eastward into plains Saturday night, and send
small waves of energy through the plains.  This will support light
snow through Sunday, with a slight chance of snow in our east, east
of a Hays to Coldwater line, Sunday night.  This snow event looks
very weak, and an inch or less of new snow is anticipated.  After
Sunday night, the upper and lower support for snow will shift east
and we should see a slight warm up.

Friday night looks really cold with the arctic air extending well
south of us into Oklahoma.  In addition, skies will be mostly clear
for much of the night, allowing temps to dive quickly after
sundown.  For these reasons, some of our zones from Syracuse to
Dighton to Wakeeney may bottom out to the -2F degree range.  light
easterly winds at 7 to 8 knots will still produce wind chill
readings in the advisory level, down in the -15F to -19F range.  A
wind chill advisory may be needed for Friday night, but later shifts
can evaluate that.  Saturday, Sunday and even Monday all look very
cold with maximum temperatures only in the teens and minimums in the
single digits.  Tuesday will see a little warm up with south winds
returning.  Highs Tuesday into Thursday will reach the 30s, while
low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

An upper level disturbance will cross western Kansas late this
afternoon/early this evening. This will result in lowering
ceilings along with improving the chances for light snow at DDC
and GCK. Based on the 12z BUFR soundings the better chance for
snow at DDC and GCK will be from 21z Thursday to 03z Friday with
the ceilings lowering between 21z Thursday and 00z Friday into
MVFR category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  15   7  16   2 /  60  70   0   0
GCK  13   7  14   2 /  40  50   0   0
EHA  12   7  15   3 /  80  80   0   0
LBL  16   9  16   2 /  80  80   0   0
HYS  16   7  15   1 /  10  20   0   0
P28  22  12  19   5 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert