000
FXUS63 KDDC 061730
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

...Updated for the aviation forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

High relative humidity, very light winds, and residual moisture from
recent snow melt will create conditions favorable for fog
development across central and portions of southwest Kansas through
sunrise this morning. Visibilities could be reduced to less than a
half mile in some locations. Because temperatures remain below
freezing this morning, very light ice deposition may occur as well.
Any fog will likely dissipate by mid to late morning as
temperatures begin to climb through mid day.

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward
out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains today.
This will likely result in dry conditions persisting across western
Kansas through Thursday night, particularly with a weaker flow aloft
and a lack of instability present. Warmer temperatures are likely
today as lee side troughing strengthens enhancing warm air advection
within a southerly flow across western Kansas. The NAM/GFS show H85
temperatures up near 10C across central Kansas to near 15C along the
Colorado border. Along with clearing skies by this afternoon, look
for highs up into the 50s(F) across central Kansas to the 60s(F) in
southwest Kansas. For tonight, expect lows only down into the 30s(F)
in central Kansas with lower to mid 40s(F) possible in extreme
southwest Kansas as increasing moisture bumps surface dewpoints
up.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Two storm systems will impact the Central Plains providing
precipitation opportunities across portions of the southwestern
Kansas region. The first storm system will be during the Friday
Night/Saturday time frame. We have cut back on the POPs for the
Friday (day) period in favor of a slower evolving 500-700mb trough
axis/zone of frontogenesis per the latest GFS/ECMWF. This event will
most likely be entirely in the form of snow as the thermodynamic
profile should fall entirely below zero prior to onset of
accumulating precipitation. The rather positively tilted nature of
the overall trough along with the translational speed of the trough
will not support a heavy precipitation event. We are looking at an
event supporting one to perhaps two inches of snow (maybe isolated
higher amounts toward the Colorado border) which is in line with the
ECMWF model.

The next storm system will develop across the Rockies mid next week.
While the synoptic and all-important subsynoptic aspects of the
mid-week storm system are still rather unclear, the ECMWF and GFS
models do point at the potential for a slightly higher impact event.
Timing is also still a huge question as the GFS and ECMWF differ
fairly significantly in the onset, duration, and ending of the
mid-week storm. It looks like this storm will also be mostly in the
form of snow as it stands now, with significant low level cold
advection occurring before the important 700mb zone of frontogenesis
moves across southwestern Kansas.

In between these storms, Sunday and Monday look to be rather mild
with mid level westerly downslope momentum prevailing. Allblend
guidance of highs 62 Sunday and 71 Monday (Dodge City) look good
enough and no change was necessary off the Allblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will
quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds
will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will
fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This
could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How
dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop.
I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  35  58  27 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  63  37  56  27 /   0   0  20  40
EHA  68  42  62  30 /   0   0  20  50
LBL  65  40  63  29 /   0   0  20  50
HYS  52  33  51  26 /   0   0  20  40
P28  48  33  60  30 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke