Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 181049
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016
North winds are still gusty as of midnight, as cool advection
continues, but they will diminish through sunrise.
What a difference a day makes! October returns with all its
splendor today, with a weak surface high pressure ridge settling
into eastern Kansas. Light NE winds this morning will veer to
SE this afternoon. Few if any clouds and winds less than 10 mph
by afternoon. Much cooler! 850 mb temperatures are essentially
cut in half from yesterday`s record territory, with afternoon max
temperatures in the lower 70s. Back to room temperature and much
more comfortable, but still several degrees above mid-October
normals. Enjoy the relief from the heat.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016
An extended period of very quiet and completely dry weather
expected across SW KS.
A progressive shortwave will zip across Kansas embedded in the
fast flow aloft on Wednesday, driving another reinforcing cold
front with north winds across SW KS. Pattern is much too
progressive for moisture to have any chance to return this far
west, and kept forecast and fropa dry. There will likely be a
fleeting rain shower skirting by the NE zones Wednesday evening as
the shortwave passes, but opted to keep the pop grids dry (<15%).
More confident that there will be a period of enhanced cloud cover
across the NE zones for several hours Wednesday. Cool advection
will knock down Wednesday`s high temperatures a few more degrees
from Tuesday`s readings. 00z GFS is notably cooler than the
00z ECMWF model run, with afternoon highs reduced to the low to
mid 60s on Thursday. Included some areas of frost across the
NW zones Thursday morning. That being said, a widespread
frost/freeze episode does not look likely Thursday morning.
NW winds look to remain elevated through sunrise Thursday, as
a 1035 mb surface high continues to build into northern Colorado.
Extended NAM has more of a surface ridge building into the western
zones Thursday morning, so a mention of frost across the NW zones
is prudent based on climatology.
Included some more areas of frost for the NW zones Friday morning,
but again frost/freeze potential and radiational cooling do not
look optimal, as SE return flow will have commenced by sunrise
Friday. The bottom line: the growing season will continue for most
locations for some time to come.
Friday through Sunday...Very quiet and completely dry with a
warming trend. 500 mb heights on the ECMWF start at 582 dm Friday
and increase to about 587 dm Sunday. Max temperature grids from
the ECMWF bias-corrected guidance are much warmer (mid to upper
80s) compared to the superblend for the weekend. Much above normal
temperatures will return this weekend, likely more so than the
current forecast indicates.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016
VFR expected. Northerly winds veering NE by 15Z then SE by 21Z 5-10kt.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 46 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 72 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 72 44 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 73 44 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 70 45 67 40 / 0 0 10 10
P28 76 50 73 47 / 0 0 0 0