685
FXUS63 KDDC 080703
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and generally dry weather through the midweek

- Heat breaks down Thursday night into Friday with the return of
overnight MCS potential

- Increasing confidence of rain and storms to start the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

07z upper air and surface analysis shows a 595 dm high centered over
Arizona and New Mexico with west to northwest flow riding over the
ridge in the Rockies through the central and northern plains.  We
have quiet conditions in southwest Kansas with an ongoing weakening
MCS located in eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

Today looks to be dry across southwest Kansas with a couple of
weather features of note.  As the ongoing MCS continues to move to
the south and weaken we should see an outflow boundary move into
south central and southeast Kansas.  From how the short term models
are trending any afternoon convection that develops along the
outflow boundary should just stay east of our CWA.  The upper level
high in the desert southwest is also forecast to expand and move
northward through the day which should move the stronger westerlies
into Wyoming and northeast Colorado.  A few of the CAMs develop an
overnight MCS in northeast Colorado that dives into northwest and
eventually southwest Kansas.  At this time I kept the POPs low due
to the fact we should have warm mid levels and a pretty good cap
from daytime heating getting us into the mid 90s.  That said if the
thunderstorms can hang on and reach southwest Kansas they will have
a gusty wind threat.

Wednesday and Thursday will be highlighted with mid 90s to low 100
degree heat.  The upper high is forecast to strengthen to 597 dm and
expand eastward.  The hot dry air should move into far western
Kansas by late day Wednesday and models are showing good mixing in
the lower levels to remove the 60 degree dewpoints along and west of
highway 83.  Thursday should continue the trend with stronger
southwest winds and more mixing that the 60 degree or greater
dewpoints shift eastward into central Kansas and this will give us
our best probability of reaching 100 degrees especially along and
west of highway 83 while everyone else should heat up into the
middle to upper 90s.

Thursday night into Friday morning the LREF upper level trends have
the ridge and upper high shifting westward as a stout longwave
trough moves from the Pacific northwest into the northern plains.
THis will introduce a chance of an overnight MCS mainly in northern
Kansas through Nebraska.  As a result NBM POP trends have the
highest chances around Hays (40%) and lower chances as you go south
and west (20-30%).  Greater chances of storms come Saturday morning
as the upper high moves west to the Pacific coast and the stronger
northwesterlies will be firmly into the central plains.  A stout
longwave trough and stronger cold front moves into western Kansas
during the night and this will introduce a better chance of showers
and thunderstorms (50-60%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Air travel should be good as we will have VFR flight category
and in general winds will be 12 kts or less through the time
period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro