Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave pushing
eastward across the Central Plains this evening then lifting
northeast into the Great Lakes Region overnight. Meanwhile, a
stronger upper level trough will continue to dig southeast across
the Colorado Rockies this evening and into the Western High Plains
later tonight bringing widespread precip chances to portions of
western and central Kansas through late Monday morning. Snow, with
a possible mix of light rain early, is expected to develop across
extreme southwest Kansas sometime this evening as the upper level
shortwave begins to move out of the Colorado Rockies into the high
plains of eastern Colorado. Based on NAM/GFS model soundings, any
liquid precip this evening is likely to switch over to snow west to
east overnight. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly marginal
with the strength of the upper level jet remaining well to our south
across Texas, the best chance for accumulating snow will be across
southwest Kansas generally along and south of highway 50. This is
mainly due to increased H7 frontogenetic banding forecast to
develop across extreme southwest Kansas overnight as an H5 vort
max ejects eastward out of the shortwave trough axis into
southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.

As far as snow totals are concerned, the NAM/GFS show QPF values a
little over a quarter inch cutting across southern portions of
southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border after 06Z. However,
higher soil temperatures due to extremely warm temperatures in
recent days may hinder accumulating snow initially, especially if
preceded briefly by light rain wetting the ground. Snow
accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible generally along and
south of highway 50. A few locally higher amounts are still
possible north of highway 50.

Temperatures will be well below normal tonight as much colder air
surges southward into western Kansas in wake of frontal passage
early this morning. The H85 isotherm is projected to plunge
southward well into north Texas by early Monday morning, and with
upstream surface temperatures already down into the lower 30s(F) and
upper 20s(F), similar temperatures can be expected across central
and southwest Kansas tonight for lows. Freeze and Hard Freeze
warnings have already been issued for west central, southwest, and
portions of central Kansas late tonight. Highs may struggle to
reach the 40s(F) in some locations tomorrow depending on how
quickly cloud cover decreases and how much snowpack lingers across
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

A widespread hard freeze is expected early Tuesday morning as ideal
radiational cooling will likely set up with clear skies and light
winds. Given the fairly high confidence in temperatures reaching the
mid to upper 20s, we will have a Hard Freeze Watch (forecast lows of
28 or colder during the growing season, which has just started
across much of the area) in effect for all of our west central,
southwest, and south central KS counties.

The next weather maker expected to impact the western Kansas region
will be Wednesday Night into Thursday. There are some significant
differences, though, between the ECMWF and the GFS models regarding
degree of amplification and resulting lower-mid tropospheric
development. The GFS is far more aggressive with both the cold air
intrusion into western Kansas as well as precipitation in the cold
sector. In fact, the GFS is suggesting a fair amount of snow in the
cold sector across much of the western half of Kansas Thursday,
whereas the ECMWF shows much less precipitation and focused farther
north toward the Kansas-Nebraska border. The official forecast calls
for Chance POPs (30 to 50 percent south to north) focused during the
day Thursday.  We kept the mention of snow mainly across areas
along/north of the Arkansas River and west of a Jetmore-Hays line,
however if the ECMWF model starts to trend more toward the more
aggressive GFS solution, then this forecast will need to be revised
to include more snow for more areas (as well as much cooler
temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Low level stratus will persist across central and southwest Kansas
through early Monday morning resulting in widespread MVFR cigs at
all TAF sites with brief periods of IFR cigs possible. An upper
level storm system will move out of the Colorado Rockies into the
high plains tonight. Snow is expected to develop across
southeastern Colorado early this evening then move eastward into
southwest and central Kansas overnight. This may affect KGCK and
KDDC resulting in periods of IFR cigs/vsbys, although light snow
reaching as far north as KHYS cannot be ruled out. As for winds,
gusty north winds of 25 to 35kt will continue through early this
evening in wake of the frontal passage this morning. Winds will
remain northerly but subside somewhat later this evening to
around 15 to 25kt as surface high pressure moves southeast
along the Rockies into Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  43  23  63 /  60  30   0   0
GCK  27  42  23  64 /  70  20   0   0
EHA  27  40  27  65 /  70  20   0   0
LBL  28  42  24  65 /  70  30   0   0
HYS  28  45  23  64 /  60  20   0   0
P28  32  45  24  63 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084-085.

HARD FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ066-079>081-
086>090.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Monday FOR KSZ074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson






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