Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272057
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL AFTER THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES. DESPITE THE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
HAD WARMED INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH UPPER
60S AROUND ASHLAND AND MEDICINE LODGE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. CLEARING TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY OUGHT TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S GIVEN AMPLE
SUN IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT COLD OR WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED ABOVE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER CWA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

NORTH WINDS AT 15 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO
5 TO 10 KTS BY 00Z. THEREAFTER THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA070.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  67  39  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  37  65  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  37  65  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  39  67  39  71 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  38  66  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
P28  43  69  39  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH



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