Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
815 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 815 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Updated to expand the mention of freezing drizzle across roughly
the eastern 1/2 of the CWA for the rest of tonight. 00z NAM shows
a strong drizzle QPF signature roughly along and east of US 283
tonight, with QPF of 0.01-0.04. Setup looks favorable for freezing
precipitation, as cold/dry advection at 850 mb is overrun by
warmer air aloft at 700 mb. Any freezing drizzle will be light,
but it takes very little to impact travel severely, so will need
to watch trends and observations closely tonight. Also, HRRR
continues to suggest convection possible across/near Pratt/Barber
counties after 3 am along surging cold front. NAM also shows some
MLCAPE in this region after midnight, along with surface
temperatures below freezing, so will need to monitor this region
for icing as well.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Late day convection attempting to develop along a surface cold
front in the Texas panhandle at 1 pm. Once these developing
clouds/showers move north of this boundary however they begin to
weakening as they move into a cooler and more stable air mass. At
this time do not think any convection that does develop late today
in the Texas Panhandle will make it to the Oklahoma/Kansas border
early evening like the HRRR suggests. Am currently am leaning
towards keeping all mention of precipitation out of the forecast
in far southwest Kansas early this evening but will continue to
monitor things and adjust as needed.

For the rest of the overnight period...Models still are in
reasonably good agreement with moving an upper level wave across
the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas early tonight. As this
upper wave lifts northeast this evening a surface cold front will
begin to move north as a warm front back into southwest Kansas.
Also this evening 850mb warm air advection and moisture advection
will begin to improve north of this boundary, especially in south
central Kansas. This improving moisture and lift north of the
surface boundary along with some mid level instability overnight
could give way to a few showers and as a result will retain
mention of small chances of precipitation this evening east of
highway 183. At this time confidence is not high but the potential
does exist, especially in south central Kansas. Temperatures
profiles in this region early tonight also support that should
something develop it will mainly be in the form of rain. An
isolated rumble of thunder also can not be completely ruled out
near the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas.

Once this upper wave passes after midnight the surface boundary
will once again move south as a cold front into the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma. Skies will clear from from west to east
late tonight and early Monday as cold air returns behind this cold
front.Despite the clearing skies early Monday the temperatures
will stay on the cool side based on the 900mb to 850mb
temperatures at 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday. Based on these
temperatures in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs on Tuesday are
expected to range from the upper 20s along the I-70 corridor to
the lower 40s along the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An upper level trough will establish itself early in the week
across the western United States and then this upper trough will
move very little through late week. Over the next 5 days several
upper level waves will rotate around this upper level Western
United States trough and as each of these disturbances move from
the base of the upper trough and out into the central plains mid
to late week there will be a slight chance for some light
precipitation across south central and possibly even portions of
southwest Kansas. The chance for precipitation will be improving
late week and over the weekend as models hint at better moisture
and lift across western Kansas. This lift will be occurring north
of a surface boundary that will be located across the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma and ahead of the Western United States
upper level trough as it moves east towards the Central Rockies.
This will not only bring some improving chances for precipitation
late week and over the weekend period but also bring some warmer
temperatures back to western Kansas.

For temperatures this week...temperatures are expected to stay on
the cool side given the cooler air that will be filtering into
western Kansas behind the cold front tonight and Monday is
currently forecast to remain in place through at Thursday. Periods
of cloudy skies occurring each day will also be possible as a
series of upper level waves cross the Western High Plains. A
gradual warming trend will begin to occur Friday and continue over
the weekend as a surface warm front lifts north across Kansas.
Highs are expected to rebound from the 30s and 40s on Thursday to
the 50s and 60s on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Stratus has retreated northward temporarily late this afternoon,
with MVFR stratus cigs still being reported at Scott City and HYS.
With easterly upslope components, have high confidence that
stratus will return to DDC/GCK after sunset, with cigs lowering at
HYS. NAM forecast soundings performed well with stratus last
night, and followed their lead again with this TAF cycle. MVFR
cigs are expected, with periods of IFR, but surface visibility
should remain above 5-6 sm. Areas of BR or DZ are expected
overnight, mainly south of HYS and east of DDC. Dry advection at
the surface should minimize any drizzle/freezing drizzle impacts,
and kept it out of the TAFs for now. By 12z Tue, north winds will
increase to 17-27 kts at all terminals as cold air is reinforced
across SW KS. Stratus cigs will gradually lift Tuesday morning,
with VFR/SKC expected after 18z Tue.


DDC  24  37  11  32 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  20  34   9  31 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  28  39  13  33 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  34  42  11  33 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  18  30   9  31 /  20  10   0   0
P28  27  36  17  33 /  30  10  10  20




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.