Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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684
FXUS63 KDDC 040605
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1205 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 703 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

The upper level low that is advecting Pacific moisture into
Southwest Kansas will move from Northwest Mexico and push east on
Sunday. This will also move the rain out of our region overnight.
Surface high pressure will fill in behind this system, bringing
clear skies for Sunday. Aside from a breezy Monday and Tuesday,
the next major weather impact occurs on Wednesday, when an upper
level shortwave trough brings another chance for precipitation for
Southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Widespread stratus, drizzle, fog, with scattered light showers of
rain/snow across the eastern CWA this afternoon. A classic gray
day. Temperatures will sit in the 30s through the afternoon with
no sun. Light and variable winds are expected to become upslope
and light SEly this evening, which may encourage a few hours of
fog formation and restricted visibility. Also after 6 pm,
GFS/NAM/HRRR depict a final slug of warm air advection forcing
spreading across the SE 1/2 of the CWA, offering a final round of
light to moderate rain. Raised pops into likely category for these
areas this evening, with QPF of 0.10-0.15 forecasted by some
models. Confident this will fall as rain, as warm air advection at
850 mb continues. Sharp trough axis sweeps to the CO/KS border
around midnight, and clears the SE zones around 6 am Sunday. The
sky will clear rapidly as this occurs, as the associated Pacific
cool front sweeps out the moisture with a modest NW breeze. Lows
Sunday morning ranging from the upper teens far NW, to the mid 20s
at Dodge City, to the mid 30s near Kiowa.

Sunday...What a difference a day makes. The pick day of the
weekend, with full sun, light winds and seasonable temperatures.
A modest NW breeze at 10-20 mph Sunday morning will diminish to
light SWly less than 10 mph, as weak high pressure translates to
near Medicine Lodge by 6 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Arctic cold will be visiting SW Kansas Tuesday night through
Thursday...

Monday...The mildest day of the forecast, as atmosphere responds
to lee side troughing and pre-frontal warming. Afternoon
temperatures warm well into the 50s, and probably some lower 60s
SW of Dodge City.

Initial cold front will blast through SW KS Monday night with
strong north winds and strong cold advection. No precipitation is
expected with this first surge of cold air.

Tuesday...Much colder, but still dry. As the truly arctic air
spills into the northern plains, the progressive shortwave of
interest will be racing through the Great Basin. Afternoon
temperatures reduced to the 30s with increasing clouds Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Said approaching shortwave races
through SW KS, producing a period of light snow. With each
successive model run, am becoming less impressed with heavy snow
potential from this system. Models keep this shortwave far too
progressive to allow for any appreciable moisture return into
western Kansas. That said, dynamic lift will be strong Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning, and whatever moisture is available
will easily be shaken out as light snow. High confidence that all
precipitation will take the form of snow, as arctic air arrives on
strong north winds. Per coordination with some WFOs, increased
wind/wind gust grids behind the arctic front. Also have high
confidence that light snow will occur, so the likely pops from the
blended model output appear warranted. However, progressive nature
of the system and the limited moisture availability will keep snow
amounts modest (1-3"), with the higher amounts favoring the
northern counties. The invading arctic air will make this a fluffy
snow, so fully expect some blowing snow concerns Tuesday night and
for the morning commute on Wednesday. But as of now, the potential
for a significant heavy snow across SW KS is decreasing.

Much more impactful than the snow, will be the arctic cold
Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will
remain in the mid 20s, with wind chill factors in the single
digits. 12z GFS builds a strong 1043mb surface high directly
southward over SW KS on Thursday morning, with a clear sky and a
bit of fresh fluffy snow on the ground. Single digits are expected
around sunrise Thursday morning, with some of the coldest
Arkansas valley locations flirting with zero. These are air
temperatures; the winds will be calm.

Thursday...Sunny, dry and cold. Most locations will remain below
freezing all day.

Friday and Saturday...Dry with moderating temperatures. Back to
the 30s Friday, and 40s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Ample moisture at the surface will bring IFR to LIFR to the TAF
sites overnight. GCK is currently being affected with DDC and HYS
expected to be affected over the next couple of hours. These low
ceilings and visibilities will move out of the area by sunrise
leading to VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds will
generally be light overnight with northwest winds at less than 10
knots after sunrise. Winds then shift to more of a southerly
direction by tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  49  28  53 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  24  49  27  53 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  24  50  28  56 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  26  50  26  53 /  50   0   0   0
HYS  25  48  28  51 /  50   0   0   0
P28  33  53  30  55 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Reynolds
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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