Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Weak pulse convection continues to sputter along on various
outflow boundaries early this morning. HRRR takes any activity
south of the KS/OK line by 4 am. Otherwise, expect moist east/SE
upslope flow to yield stratus across the eastern and NE zones
through sunrise. Any stratus will burn off rapidly after sunrise.

Today...windy and warmer. After a pleasant break from the heat and
wind the past few days, it is back to traditional summertime
weather today. It will be a windy day on the plains, with low
pressure near 989mb in western Nebraska inducing strong south
winds across Kansas. Followed the strongest wind guidance
available, with gusts near 40 mph likely (especially west of Dodge
City). GFS progs a pressure gradient of 11 mb across the CWA
5-7 pm, as 850mb winds increase to near 35 kts. With nearly full
sun and efficient mixing, gusts of this 35 kt caliber can be
expected. Instability will increase significantly this afternoon,
in response to moisture advection holding dewpoints in the lower
60s. CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg is expected across the NE/E zones
by afternoon. However, with the lack of convergence or focusing
mechanisms, opted to keep all zones dry through 7 pm. With strong
warm advection, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than
Monday, with lower 90s common.

Tonight...Still appears primary risk for severe thunderstorms will
be in Nebraska and northern Kansas this evening. Still, 00z
NAM/GFS show excellent agreement forecasting convection to impact
the northern zones this evening, after 7 pm. In our CWA, severe
thunderstorms including possible supercells are most probable
along the I-70 corridor (Trego, Ellis counties) where NAM
forecasts healthy CAPE, shear and EHI. GFS depicts a well-timed
shortwave this evening that may enhance the potential for large
hail and damaging winds. Also, a strong low level jet is
anticipated after sunset tonight, which may serve to improve the
longevity of any storms after sunset. With elevated south winds
and boundary layer moisture, it will be quite warm tonight with
many locales holding near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Mid to late week looks to be fairly active as far as the large scale
pattern is concerned as it relates to severe weather potential
across the Central Plains. A largely zonal upper tropospheric
pattern will be in place, with the global models showing an 80-90
knot 250mb jet translating east through the pattern late Wednesday
into Thursday. A lead shortwave trough late Tuesday Night will push
a front east and south into northern Kansas by Wednesday. The
aforementioned jet streak moving into Colorado late in the day
Wednesday should favor post-frontal upslope easterly flow into
northeastern Colorado, which will be in the mid tropospheric
baroclinic zone. We would be looking for severe convection to form
back in the upslope area in addition to the front itself which
should stall out somewhere from southwest into north
central/northeast KS. The problem for southwest KS as far as
widespread severe potential goes is the cap. There will most likely
be a sharp southern cutoff to convective activity. Highest POPs
Wednesday will be in the north as a result. The CAPE/Shear
environment would favor supercell storms with good 850-500mb
crossovers. The initial jet streak late Wednesday will push east,
but it will be followed by another perturbation rippling through the
pattern. Mid level temperatures across western KS should be cooler,
and if the front does not push too far south into the warm
temperatures aloft, another severe weather event will likely unfold
across Kansas. The overall CAPE/Shear environment looks identical
to, if not a bit better than Wednesday. These two days look the best
for severe weather in our region (mainly eastern counties) during
this Long Term range. On Friday, there is global model consensus
that the surface front will push down into Oklahoma with the
emphasis for severe storms down in that area. We should see quite a
bit cooler temperatures Friday as a result.  Saturday and Sunday are
initially looking potentially wetter as post-frontal moist low level
winds resume in a general west-northwesterly flow pattern aloft.
It`s really too early to tell how the 4th of July will fare at this
point, given the obvious model uncertainty in the D+8 to 10 range.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Consensus of short term models is for stratus to spread northward
from near P28 to near HYS through 12z. Included MVFR stratus cigs
in the HYS TAF around sunrise, with a couple hours of IFR cigs
possible. Stratus is expected to remain east of the other
airports. Strong south winds will impact aviation Tuesday, in
response to low pressure in Nebraska. Expect southerly 850mb winds
to increase to near 35 kts through the afternoon, and with good
mixing, gusts of this magnitude are expected. Winds will remain
elevated and gusty 00-06z Wed, in response to a strong low level
jet. Strong instability is expected Tuesday afternoon,
particularly in the vicinity of HYS, where VCTS/CB was included
after 00z Wed. Elsewhere, with a lack of a convective focusing
mechanism, kept the other TAFs dry.


DDC  64  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  62  93  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  66  89  65  95 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  66  92  70  97 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  61  89  70  93 /  30  10  20  10
P28  65  90  71  96 /  20  10  10  10




LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.