Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

An upper level ridge was moving east over the Plains states while to
the west, a strong shortwave trough was moving through the
Intermountain west and southwest. This upper trough is progged by
the models to move out over the central and northern Plains tonight.
A strong surface pressure gradient had developed over the central
High Plains in advance of this system. Southerly low level winds
were advecting somewhat better low level moisture from the southern
Plains back into western Kansas. During the day today, a dryline
will tighten up across southwest Kansas. To the east of the dryline,
model soundings show strong southerly winds developing through the
mixed layer. It appears that sustained 25-35 mph winds will be
likely across central and parts of southwest Kansas by mid morning
and continuing into this afternoon. Have issued a wind advisory for
this which will be in effect from 10 am this morning until 8 pm this
evening.

The airmass ahead of the dryline will become increasingly unstable
with model MUCAPE values up to around 1500 J/KG. There will be
plenty of shear for rotating thunderstorms. CAPE and Shear
parameters are looking favorable for large hail up to golfball size
but with fairly high LCL`s it appears that the threat for tornadoes
will continue to be low. Thunderstorms should break out along the
dryline by around 3 or 4 pm and propagate eastward into central
Kansas this evening.

A strong cold front will push south across western Kansas this
evening. There could be a period of an hour or two of 25-35 mph
winds behind the front which could also produce some areas of
blowing dust over southwest Kansas this evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms could also develop along the front as it moves into
central Kansas into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Gusty winds and low relative humidity is expected to develop over
far southwest Kansas this afternoon behind a dryline that will move
out to along highway 25. A Red Flag warning is in effect for this
afternoon for the above mentioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  46  72  44 /  40  70   0  10
GCK  85  44  73  43 /  40  50  10  10
EHA  87  44  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  86  45  74  44 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  84  46  73  42 /  50  90  10   0
P28  84  53  72  45 /  30  70  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard






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