Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232046
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Short term weather issues center around severe weather potential
this evening and then high wind potential for Friday. A strong
upper level storm system was moving out of the western states this
afternoon and will move out over the central and southern Plains
on Friday. Strong southerly low level flow was pushing low to mid
50s dewpoints into western and central Kansas which was aiding in
an increasingly unstable airmass. SPC Mesoscale Analysis page
shows MLCape values up around 1500 J/KG by mid afternoon. Model
soundings also show the warm layer aloft present today over the
area eroding this afternoon. In addition, surface obs show a
dryline sharpening up over far western Kansas this afternoon.
Convergence along this dryline has been fairly weak so far.

Convective allowing models all tend to show thunderstorms breaking
out along and east of the dryline around the 5pm-7pm time frame.
Given the increasing instability and 0-6km bulk shear around
50-60kts, there should be an opportunity for a few supercell
thunderstorms this evening. Hail and damaging winds still appear
to be the main threat but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out
for a few hours early on. As has been pointed out by previous
shifts, the convective mode may change to a more linear
configuration this evening given that the bulk shear vectors are
not that perpendicular to the surface boundary.

Storms intensity should decrease as the evening goes on. Most
models agree that most of the convective activity should be ending
or moving out of western Kansas by around midnight or shortly
thereafter.

As the upper system moves out on Friday, a strong surface low
pressure center will move from eastern Colorado into the northern
Panhandle region. A very strong pressure gradient will develop
over northwest and far southwest Kansas during the day. Model
soundings from the GFS and NAM show 50-60 knot winds developing in
the upper portions of the mixed layer across far southwest Kansas
during the day. The the best chance for high wind criteria to be
met across my area will be along and west of Highway 25. Have
upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning in that area for
tomorrow and will leave the watch farther east intact for now.

The bulk of any deformation precipitation will stay to the north
and west of southwest Kansas on Friday. Will keep a chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms going through the day Friday as
well given instability due to the cold air aloft during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Additional chances for rain and thunderstorms will be possible on
Sunday and again around the middle of next week as more upper
level storm systems move across the central CONUS in this active
weather pattern. Timing continues to be an issue with the storm
system around the middle of next week as the ECMWF shows a more
progressive storm while the GFS has the system moving out slower
and farther to the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The stratus in KHYS should be clearing out in the next hour,
creating VFR conditions for all TAF sites, except for possible
periods of MVFR due to thunderstorms. With a low pressure system
coming through overnight, the pressure gradient is increased
causing sustained winds of 20-30 knots and wind gusts of up to 40
knots through ~10Z, when the gusts dies down. However, winds will
remain at 10-20 knots thereafter. Scattered thunderstorms, with
the potential for some to become severe due to hail and high
winds, start after ~1Z for KGCK and KDDC and ~3Z for KHYS. Storms
should move out of all areas by ~7Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Will keep the Red Flag Warning for the western three counties of
southwest Kansas going until expiration time this evening. A dry
line was moving into far southwest Kansas with humidity levels
along the Highway 27 corridor falling into the mid teens to around
20 this afternoon. Conditions should improve rapidly toward sunset
as the dry line surges back to the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  62  37  65 /  70  50  10   0
GCK  45  56  33  66 /  60  40  10   0
EHA  45  53  32  67 /  50  30   0   0
LBL  46  61  34  68 /  70  30  10   0
HYS  53  64  38  61 /  60  40  20  10
P28  54  71  42  66 /  30  40  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ Friday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-074-084.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
KSZ043-044-063-076-077-086-087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Reynolds
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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