Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291935
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  46  33  39 /   0  10  70  60
GCK  23  46  33  40 /   0  10  60  60
EHA  29  43  33  40 /   0  20  60  60
LBL  26  45  33  41 /   0  20  70  60
HYS  19  48  33  40 /   0  10  70  60
P28  21  46  34  41 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT


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