Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated short term and aviation sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





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