Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 121904
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather danger potential for the Red Hills
  Wednesday afternoon.

- Colder air starts to arrive on Thursday with a second round of
  colder air on Sunday.

- Rain chances will mainly be along our northern border on
  Wednesday and southern border Friday but most of the area
  looks to stay dry for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

18Z observations show a departing 500 mb shortwave located in
central Kansas with a boundary layer low pressure center in
north central Kansas. The tight pressure gradient has led to
some gusty winds through the morning and early afternoon however
a surface high is developing in eastern Colorado and this should
subside the winds as we approach sunset tonight.

Overall for tonight the surface high will pass through western
Kansas keeping the winds light and variable for the start of the
night and then eventually switching to the southeast by morning.
Mid level clouds will be on the increase through the night as a
500-700 mb shortwave approaches from central Colorado. This
shortwave will also lead to developing a surface low and trough
in southeast Colorado. Lows will range from the lower to mid
40s.

Wednesday the main forecast challenge will be where the surface
low tracks and where the strongest southwest winds and driest
air sets up in the afternoon for the fire danger. HREF ensembles
and specifically the HRRR have the farthest north track which
would put the Red Hills in the stronger southwest winds by mid
to late afternoon and high fire danger between 1-6 PM. Other CAM
models such as the ARW and the latest NSSL have much lighter
winds with a more southern track of the surface low. While the
fire danger confidence is high in Oklahoma and Texas there is
still some uncertainty as to how high the fire danger will be in
the Red Hills due to the wind forecast. As a result a fire
weather watch is in effect and the next forecast update should
have better confidence if an upgrade is needed. Elsewhere north
of the low along the I-70 corridor will be socked in with clouds
for much of the morning with light drizzle possible. Clouds
should quickly erode by afternoon with the vicinity of the
surface low and warm front. Some CAMs have convection breaking
out between 21-00Z along and north of I-70 and with a 30% chance
of >750 CAPE and >30 kt shear I added thunder wording for areas
along the I-70 corridor. The better lift along the warm front
and 700 mb shortwave looks to be farther north into Goodland`s
and Hastings forecast zones. Highs will range from around 70 in
our north to northwest zones to the lower 80s in the Red Hills.

Wednesday night the surface to 850 mb low will be slow to
progress to the east so this should delay the stronger winds and
colder air from the cold front until closer to sunrise Thursday
morning. Rain chances will continue in the vicinity of the low
to the north and northwest which would put areas from Syracuse
to Hays in a slight chance of rain (20%). The better lift and
dynamics from the progged position of the low will be located in
northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. Overnight temperatures
should fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Much cooler air is scheduled to arrive Thursday, on strong north
winds behind the next cold front. Trimmed NBM temperature grids
Thursday several degrees, closer to MEX guidance keeping more
locations in the 50s. Of course, 50s are perfectly normal in
March, but after several days of 70s, Thursday will be
distinctly more uncomfortable. Models continue to waffle on how
much colder this new air mass will be, with guidance suggesting
the colder air may arrive in 2-3 stages through Friday. As one
example, 00z GFS drops 850 mb temperatures to 0C at DDC by 7 pm
Thursday, but on the 00z ECMWF this doesn`t occur until midday
Friday. At any rate, two much cooler days are expected Thursday
and Friday, as high pressure drives much cooler air down the
plains on strong north winds, and the large cutoff cyclone spins
over the Desert Southwest. Used the 90%ile of the NBM for wind
grids Thursday night, when the strongest north winds are
expected. Temperatures on Friday will again be held several
degrees below mid March normals, in the lower to mid 50s.

Precipitation prospects for the Thursday through Friday continue
to look bleak for SW KS. NBM maintains chance category pops for
rain showers Thursday for the far northwest zones, mainly north
and west of Garden City (adjacent to the GLD CWA). 00z EPS
probability of QPF > 0.10 inch is still 30-50% for these
northwest zones on Thursday, so places such as Syracuse to Scott
City to Wakeeney have the best chances of settling some dust. On
Friday, any precipitation with the large cutoff cyclone is
projected to remain south and west of SW KS, with perhaps some
dribbling into far SW KS (Elkhart vicinity) at times. Kept
chance category pops for Morton county vicinity through early
Friday. Dry weather will continue to prevail this weekend and
Monday, with day and night temperatures not too far from normal
(50s, 30s). Long range models predict a very quiet pattern early
next week, with strong warming Tuesday, as the old cutoff
cyclone dies a slow death near Las Vegas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR flight category for all airports during the time period.
Winds will stay breezy through the afternoon at 12-20 kts and
then should quickly diminish by 00Z. Winds in general should
stay 12 kts or less through the rest of the time period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Elevated to near critical fire weather danger will be the case
during the afternoon on Wednesday for areas mainly south and
east of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. Highest
probability of wind gusts over 25 mph and relative humidity
values falling to 15% or less will be along the Oklahoma border
from Meade to Barber counties between 1-6 PM. The winds will be
highly dependant on the track of a surface low moving through
northwest and north central Kansas and if the track is farther
south the winds will be much lighter.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro


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