Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A STRONG +90KT JET
CORE IS EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CA/NV BORDER, WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING AND SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.

AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF KDDC. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCK AND KHYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  61  84  57 /  10  30  30  20
GCK  83  57  82  54 /  10  40  20  10
EHA  82  57  81  50 /  40  60  10   0
LBL  83  61  83  53 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  83  63  80  58 /  10  80  40  20
P28  86  63  85  63 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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