000
FXUS63 KDDC 222300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Thunderstorms are not expected
to impact the terminals tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across
the terminals tomorrow morning with southerly winds eventually becoming
NNE/NE. Magnitudes generally under 12 kt through TAF pd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  98  70 100 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  98  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  94  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden