000
FXUS63 KDDC 130541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1241 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Tonight into early Thursday an upper level ridge axis is forecast
to weaken as it crosses the Rockies and moves out into the plains.
An upper level trough, which was located off the British Columbia
coast at 12z Wednesday, will then quickly follow this weaken ridge
and currently is expected to move across the northern Rockies by
early Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure at the surface
will deepen along the lee of the Rockies late tonight/early
Thursday as this upper level trough approaches the Rockies.
Westerly downslope flow will be improving ahead of this upper
level disturbance and based on the 850mb temperature trends from
00z Thursday to 00z Friday ranging from 7c to near 10c warm up the
latest MAV/MET guidance with highs rebounding back to near 70
degrees currently appears on track. This was also close to the
previous forecast to will will stay close to the previous forecast
for highs.

Southwest winds will increase Thursday afternoon as a surface
trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies deepens. Based
on the surface dewpoints in the teens Thursday afternoon along
with the unseasonably warm temperatures expected...elevated fire
danger levels can be expected for most of western Kansas Thursday
afternoon. Wind speeds at this time however currently appear to be
just below red flag warning conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

A progressive upper flow pattern will persist through the extended
period with frequent surface cold fronts moving though western
Kansas. Temperatures will likely be mild overnight Thursday into
early Friday morning, as southerly gradient flow persists prior to a
cold front sweeping through the state around Friday morning. This
front will bring another dry airmass, however with some cold advection,
temperatures may only rise through the 50`s in most areas. Any
warming trend will only be brief as a positively tilted upper wave
across the central Rockies, driving a strong shortwave into the
southern High Plains region. Models show weak westerly flow across
the area Saturday before a rapid late afternoon or at least
evening adjustment downward in temperatures as the next cold front
dives through the area. The upper deformation axis and very weak
sloping frontogenesis with poleward oriented ageostrophic flow
should yield light rain and rain or snow depending on ground
temperatures, and wet bulbing overnight into very early Sunday
morning. The ECMWF is the dry model (precipitation just positioned
farther south) across opposed to a more wet GFS and WRF output.
Following this weekend system, the trend returns to slowly warming
and continued dry as the upper westerly jet begins to lift
poleward, driving the shortwaves across the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR conditions will prevail this morning into the afternoon with
mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be light and from a
westerly direction this morning before increasing to 10 to 15
knots by late morning and shifting to the southwest. Gusts of 20
to 25 knots are possible in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  56  36  64 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  38  52  34  63 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  46  56  36  63 /  10  10   0  20
LBL  41  61  35  64 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  39  58  35  63 /   0   0   0  10
P28  45  62  37  65 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42