Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182042
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

INTENSE DOWNSLOPE NOTED IN THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDFIELD HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE AND WARMER
READINGS WERE ACHIEVED AROUND HUGOTON WHERE THE SNOW FIELD HAD
RAPIDLY MELTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE ONLY LEFT A
20 TO 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF LEFTOVER SNOW FROM SOUTH OF GARDEN
CITY TO WEST OF JOHNSON, MUCH OF WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE GONE BY
THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FOG, MOST LIKELY IN THE ARK VALLEY WHERE THE RECENT SNOW MELT
HAS BEEN ONGOING, HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SITUATION ISN`T
FAVORED (SHORT TERM RADIATIONAL COOLING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 Z MOST
LIKELY). THE LOW VISIBILITY THREAT SEEMS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO NOT MENTION IN WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS (NAM/ARW/NMM) HAVE HELD ONTO A SNOW COVER FIELD THROUGH THE
ARKANSAS VALLEY FOR TOO LONG, RENDERING THE MAX TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS FAR TOO COLD. WE WILL ABANDON ANY BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
THE SHORT TERM IN FAVOR OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THEN NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE THIS TROUGH GETS TOO FAR EAST, ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE AN UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT TO REACH WESTERN
KANSAS, BUT INSTEAD WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND THE 2ND STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED THIS FAR
WEST SO THAT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE 1ST SYSTEM.
SOME LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ANOTHER
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY; BUT THE LACK OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. IN THE ABSENCE
OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OR STRONG WARM SURGES FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEDNESDAY TO
MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. THESE VALUES ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. GFS LOCAL MOS SUGGESTS GUSTS BEGINNING IN THE
EARLY AFTENOON, BUT ONLY LASTING A FEW HOURS IN THIS COLD AIRMASS
ENTRENCHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRUY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  49  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  21  48  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  24  48  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  50  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  23  45  20  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  48  24  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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