000
FXUS63 KDDC 141104
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Another warm and dry day set to prevail as a broad upper ridge
sits across the southern Great Plains. Nonetheless, a 100+kt
upper jet associated with a trough stretching from central Canada
into the Desert Southwest, will help dislodge a cold front into
the Dakotas. However, south of this boundary the lee trough will
further deepen across eastern Colorado with resultant gusty south
to southwest winds prevailing. With limited cloud cover and
associated strong solar insolation permitting mixing up to 700
hPa, afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s look likely.
This will also result in elevated wildfire conditions this
afternoon to early evening.

Strong convective inhibition and limited forcing east of the lee
trough will prevent any storms from forming across southwest into
central KS through early evening. However, as a 40-50 kt low-level
jet forms tonight it is possible some isolated convection might slip
out of Colorado into western KS during the overnight hours.
Nonetheless, coverage of any convection looks extremely low with
chance for measurable precipitation even less.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Friday into Friday night will see the upper trough dig into the
Intermountain West while the ridge axis slips east into the Great
Lakes. This will permit the cold front to sink into portions of
the Central High Plains although western/central KS will remain
south of the front. While boundary layer forcing will be closer
compared to Thursday, a strong EML will put a lid on the
atmosphere most of the day. Further, mixing up to 700 hPa will
also dry out the boundary with CAPE actually not increasing much
during the afternoon hours. This will bring another warm and dry
day with afternoon temps in the mid to upper 90s. Elevated
wildfire conditions will persist into Friday afternoon.

The weekend will see the front sag southward into western and
central KS with an associated chance for storms along with cooler
temperatures. In contrast, next week will then see the upper
trough continue deepening over the Intermountain West which will
bring an intermittent chance of thunderstorms but also rebound in
temperatures back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Gusty south winds near 20 knots will develop across western Kansas
late this morning and early this afternoon as a trough of low
pressure at the surface deepens near the Colorado border. These
gusty winds are expected to fall back to around 15 knots after
sunset. Model soundings indicating that a 40 to 50knot low level
jet will develop during the overnight hours so will insert a wind
shear group to handle these strong low level winds.  RAP and NAM
both indicate some increasing moisture above the 600mb level late
this afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance approaches from
the west. VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  67  95  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  65  95  62 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  62  92  60 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  96  66  95  63 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  97  69  94  67 /  10  10  20  10
P28  96  69  94  70 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert