Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

FXUS63 KDDC 162354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
654 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

...Updated Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Record heat will continue Monday. Widespread upper 90s and even
some 100 degree readings were found from far southwest KS into the
northeastern Texas Panhandle. The usually hot-bias RAP and HRRR
models were spot on today. Since this is the case, it should be
the model to follow for Monday. As crazy as it sounds, we could
add a couple degrees tomorrow in a corridor from Liberal to Dodge
City, as the 850mb thermal ridge expands northeast just ahead of
the advancing cold front. This is a classic pattern for very warm
temperatures with the hottest readings immediately ahead of the
front in the downslope, west-southwesterly momentum surge. The
all-time October record high for Dodge City is 98 degrees. It is
not impossible to think that we could flirt with 100 degrees in
Dodge -- a feat never accomplished in this month going back to
1874. It would have to be perfect timing of the front just north
of Dodge by late afternoon with little or no influence from high
clouds, though. The official forecast calls for a high of 97 at
Dodge City (and a good portion of southwest KS for that matter).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The longwave pattern through the week will have a fairly high
zonal index and be quite progressive. This will result in dry
frontal passages through the entire period going into late next
weekend. The strongest front of this period appears to be
Wednesday, when a nose of +5 to +7C at 850mb temperatures moves in
from the north. A large, sprawling surface high will encompass the
Central Plains by late in the week, but as the primary synoptic
scale trough passes by to our north, the precipitation chances
will be near-zero with moist trajectories well off to the east of
our region of the world. Another warm period looks to develop by
Friday, if not for sure by Saturday, as another fast-moving polar
jet moves across the far northern CONUS.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR through Monday, with at most some scattered cirrus. Included
some westerly LLWS overnight at DDC/GCK overnight as westerly
850 mb winds increase to near 30 kts. After 15z Mon, SW winds
15-25 kts at GCK/DDC, slightly weaker at HYS. Just beyond this
TAF forecast cycle, a strong but dry cold front will bring strong
gusty north winds to all airports around 03z Tuesday.


Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Cancelled the red flag warning for the western zones this evening.
Winds have slackened quickly, and temperatures are falling/RH
rising quickly in the very dry air. Red flag warnings remain in
effect for most of SW Kansas Monday afternoon. Record breaking hot
temperatures, MIN RH as low as 6%, gusty SW winds near 30 mph, and
cured grasses will make for dangerous fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon, particularly south and west of Dodge City.


DDC  54  97  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  51  95  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  51  95  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  97  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  90  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  60  94  55  76 /   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.