419
FXUS63 KDDC 060717
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two areas of thunderstorms today with a hail threat in the
afternoon and a wind threat in the afternoon and evening

- Overnight MCS potential Monday night into Tuesday morning

- Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

07z upper air and surface analysis shows a dying MCS roughly between
Garden City and Syracuse with an outflow boundary roughly along the
highway 183 corridor which is running into some moisture convergence
in central Kansas and developing a second area of thunderstorms
roughly near the Great Bend area.  A 594 dm high is located in the
desert southwest and the upper level flow is mainly westerly to
northwesterly.

Today we see a similar weather pattern to what just previously
happened on Saturday.  Abdundent lower level moisture will lead dew
points to be in the 60s to lower 70s in our eastern zones and will
combine with an area of moisture convergence due to a remnant
outflow boundary and a frontal boundary that will develop with a
surface low in eastern Colorado.  With mid level temperatures around
9-10 (C) there won`t be much if any cap for the daytime heating to
overcome and short term models have a cluster of multi cell storms
developing along the boundary between 3-8 pm mainly along and east
of highway 283.  BUFKIT soundings in the RAP and NAM show the 850 mb
winds slightly increasing around 6 pm which bumps up the 0-6 km
shear to around 30 kts and this could lead to some storms producing
some larger hail from quarter to golf ball size.  The other area of
storms we will watch will develop along the left exit region of a
jet streak going over the Colorado rockies this afternoon as a MCS
is expected to develop in northeast Colorado and ride the
northwesterlies into western Kansas mainly after sunset.  Main
threat with this line of storms will be wind gusts potential up to
70 mph and heavy downpours.  The thunderstorms should weaken through
the overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Monday with no real change in the position of the upper level high
and the westerly jet over the Colorado rockies we should once again
see a MCS complex develop in eastern Colorado by the late afternoon.
Depending on how worked over southwest Kansas is from the previous
night storms will determine if we get any convection in the
afternoon hours with most models showing a decent cap at this point.
As a result the best opportunity for rain will come in the overnight
and reflected with 40-50% POPs.  Main threat from the overnight
storms will once again be wind gusts up to 60 mph and brief
downpours.

Long range trends continue to keep us in an unsettled weather
pattern as the dome of high pressure remains in the desert southwest
with strong westerlies over the Rockies leading to late afternoon
and overnight thunderstorm chances.  Recent trends have shown a
greater building of the ridge for Wednesday and Thursday which could
shift the westerlies far enough northward that our chances of storms
will be less and we could see a brief warming trend with highs in
the mid to upper 90s.  However a break down in the heat dome is
shown towards the end of the workweek that would introduce higher
probability of storms for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A dying MCS continues near GCK and LBL which will keep VCTS in
the TAFs through 09Z. Main threat with the storms could be some
brief wind gusts to 45 kts. In general we should have VFR flight
category with winds around 12 kts. Later this afternoon some
isolated thunderstorms could develop near DDC and GCK between
20-02Z. Threat with these storms could be downburst winds
greater than 50 kts. A more well organized line of storms will
come out of Colorado with winds and heavy rain and will be near
HYS around 03Z and GCK, DDC, and LBL towards 05-06Z. Any
thunderstorm with the heavy rain could reduce flight category
briefly to MVFR or IFR due to lower surface visibilities.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro