Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 200711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  49  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  74  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73  46  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURKE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.