Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 251819
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1219 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
...Updated short term and aviation sections...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
The upper level low will shift into the Central Rockies tonight
and sit there through the short term period. Weak impulses will
eject around its periphery and head to our area enhancing lift.
Mid to upper level moisture will increase tonight creating a cloud
deck above western Kansas. Towards the surface, an area of low
pressure located across eastern Colorado will intensify with an
associated cold front pushing south into portions of Kansas
tonight and through most of our area by sunrise tomorrow. Moist
southerly winds will feed into central Kansas as this boundary
approaches leading to low stratus or possibly fog in some places.
Northerly winds are anticipated behind this front with much cooler
air. There is a slight chance of light rain showers around
midnight across central and south central Kansas. However, most
precipitation should hold off until after midnight. Rain chances
increase and spread across the remainder of the CWA after
midnight, otherwise mostly cloudy skies will be visible.
Temperatures across west central Kansas look to dip at or below
freezing towards sunrise leading to the chance of freezing
rain/sleet/snow or a combination of these elements. Lows tonight
look to range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to mid
50s across south central Kansas.
Precipitation chances continue into tomorrow along the
aforementioned cold front as well as farther north where mid level
frontogenesis and isentropic lift will be present. The best chance
for precipitation will be across south central Kansas, but a good
chance will also be present across the remainder of the forecast
area throughout the day. Strong cold air advection will be felt
behind the cold front tomorrow leading to steady or falling
temperatures throughout the day. The only exception to this will
be across portions of south central Kansas where the temp may
increase a few degrees in the morning. Highs in most places will
be around midnight and range from the upper 20s across west
central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Precipitation type has been the main challenge for this forecast
as a warm tongue is present above the surface. During the morning
hours, rain is expected across south central Kansas and along the
KS/OK border. The remainder of the CWA is anticipated to observe a
wide range of precip types from rain, freezing rain, sleet, to
snow. Light accumulations of snow will be possible across west
central Kansas with some accumulating ice across this same area as
well as portions of western Kansas and the I-70 corridor around
Hays. This mix of precipitation types look to shift southeastward
in the afternoon. Up to an inch of snow will be possible across
west central Kansas in the afternoon with over a tenth of an inch
of ice expected across eastern portions of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015
Early Wednesday morning another cold front will drop south back
to near the Nebraska border. This front is forecast to cross
western Kansas during the day and by late day this front is
forecast to extend from north central Kansas to extreme southeast
Colorado, as another upper level disturbance approaches the
central high plains from the west. Also on Wednesday a surface
trough will be crossing western Kansas. This surface trough will
be located ahead of the southward moving cold front. As this
boundary moves east the low level moisture that returned to
portions western Kansas Tuesday night will get shunted east into
central Kansas. Highs on Wednesday should have no problem
rebounding back into at least the mid to upper 60s south of the
cold front. Near the Oklahoma border highs around 70 will not be
out of the question. North of this cold front will keep afternoon
highs 5 to near 10F cooler.
Wednesday night precipitation chances will begin to improve,
especially near and east of these two surface boundaries given the
moisture return and warm air advection developing ahead of the
approaching upper level disturbance. North of these boundaries
isentropic lift will be improving, especially after 06z Thursday
so precipitation here may hold off until midnight or a little
later. At this time some dependencies exists between models on
magnitude of the lift north of this boundary but even given this
it does appear some light precipitation will be possible.
At this time given the temperature profiles precipitation type
appears to support mainly rain. the exception will be towards 12z
Thursday in north central and west central Kansas. in this area as
temperatures fall freezing rain and sleet look more likely.
Widespread precipitation is then expected to develop across all
of western Kansas early Thursday and then continue through
Thursday night as moisture and 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis
develops and then very slowly sinks south across western Kansas.
Boundary layer temperatures are expected to be cooling through the
day on Thursday which will result in the freezing and frozen
precipitation to spread south and become more widespread.
Given the latest temperature profiles Thursday and Thursday night
freezing rain and sleet are expected to over spread all of western
and south central Kansas late Thursday and early Thursday night.
Based the the latest top down approach an extended period of
freezing or frozen precipitation is expected southeast of a Hays
to Liberal line. In this area ice accumulations are expected. At
this time there still uncertainty on how much ice will accumulate
but it does appear that sufficient ice accumulations will exist to
cause some travel problems. Given this will issue an special
Friday and Friday night some light snow will still be possible
but lift will briefly weakens as a surface ridge axis crosses
western Kansas.. Towards daybreak on Saturday a southeasterly
upslope flow will begin to develop across western Kansas and
isentropic lift will be improving in the i290 to i305 level. Upper
level dynamics will also be improving early this weekend based on
the latest track of the next upper level wave which will be
located near the left exit region of a 250mb jet.
The coldest day of the week will be on Friday when highs that day
are expected to be around 30 degrees. Saturday will be a little
warmer but through the weekend period highs are expected to be
mainly in the 30s. Temperatures may approach 40 degrees in a few
locations on Sunday in far southwest. Kansas.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds this afternoon and increasing mid level
clouds this evening into tonight. Winds will generally be from the
southwest this afternoon shifting to more of a northerly direction
by this evening due to a cold front moving through the area. Wind
speeds should remain light until after sundown.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 39 24 28 / 70 90 80 60
GCK 34 34 21 27 / 40 70 70 50
EHA 36 36 21 29 / 40 70 70 60
LBL 42 44 22 29 / 60 80 70 60
HYS 35 35 23 28 / 60 80 80 40
P28 54 57 28 31 / 80 100 90 70
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday to
midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Thursday night for KSZ030-031-043>046-
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday