Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE SHORT TERM. DRIER AIR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM
THIS MORNING.  THE NOSE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN KS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING A WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA, AND BRINGING LIGHTLY MORE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND A MARKED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS SUPPORT
LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KS. BY TONIGHT, THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE DDC CWA. HOWEVER,
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND COULD HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN H5 VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
OUTSIDE SHOT FOR PRECIP TO EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A JET CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ABOUT A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP RAISE H85
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST INTO THE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S(F) ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWER 80S(F) NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING TREND DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A NARROW POST FRONTAL VERY LIGHT RAIN BAND IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A CLEARING LINE IS NOTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL,
AND CLEARING ANTICIPATED AT HYS AND DDC IN THE COMING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY ONCE BONDARY LAYER MIXING DEVELOPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  34  68  41 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  63  34  71  41 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  63  36  73  42 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  63  35  71  41 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  60  31  61  38 /  10  10  10   0
P28  62  37  61  41 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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