Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Freezing drizzle becoming more widespread, with light icing
occurring here at Dodge City. Increased coverage in the grids for
the next several hours, and an advisory will likely be required.
Additionally, convective rain showers with lightning are entering
Clark county, with more upstream in Beaver county, Oklahoma. These
showers will be entering a freezing rain environment, with some
icing potential from Ashland to Greensburg to Coldwater in the
short term. Adjusted grids, and again an advisory may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Finally a bit more interesting with regards to precipitation this
evening. After dusting off the radar scope, we have tracked
several scattered thunderstorms across mainly Barber and Pratt
counties, producing plenty of lightning and mainly brief downpours
of freezing rain and sleet. Vast majority of the activity has
been, and will continue to be, well east of us in central Kansas.
NAM/HRRR solutions show further convective development toward
5-6 AM Tuesday, but trends strongly suggest all of this action
will remain in Wichita`s CWA. Numerous snow showers are also in
progress across eastern Colorado and NW Kansas, which will miss
SW KS. So, effectively, SW KS is again being dryslotted with
badly-needed moisture on either side of us. Some areas of freezing
drizzle will remain possible through sunrise, mainly east of
US 283, as shown by 00z NAM. Will need to monitor for minor icing
overnight. Have dropped low temperatures Tuesday morning well down
into the teens, with cold advection expected to intensify toward
sunrise with increasing north winds. Incoming cold air
reinforcement is quite cold (currently 4 degrees at Akron,
Colorado) so still may not be cold enough. Expect widespread
stratus through morning with north winds gusting over 30 mph at
times. Wind chill indices will fall to near zero at sunrise.

Tuesday...It is still winter, and it will feel like it. Strong
cold/dry advection will continue all day, with north winds of
20-30 mph in the morning slowly relaxing during the afternoon.
Widespread low clouds will gradually erode during the morning
hours, as falling surface dewpoints evaporate the stratus. Near
full sunshine is expected by afternoon, so allowed for some
temperature recovery into the 30s. This is a fair bit below par
for February 20th (normal high is near 50).

Tonight...Mostly clear and cold. Surface high of 1030 mb near
Rapid City at 6 pm strengthens to a 1040 mb high in NE Nebraska
by sunrise Wednesday. As such, cold/dry advection will continue
on NE winds of 10-20 mph, with most locations falling into the
5-15 degree range Wednesday morning. With winds remaining
elevated, temperatures should be kept from falling any lower, but
the very dry ground will be increasing radiational cooling,
trying to counter this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Dry weather will unfortunately continue to prevail over a very
thirsty SW Kansas. There will be a few opportunities for some
light precipitation, and we will certainly take whatever we can
get at this point.

Wednesday...Continued cold. Cold advection will continue on
NE winds, eminating from a 1040 mb Canadian surface high in
Wisconsin. With upslope and stratus, most locations are expected
to fail to reach freezing Wednesday afternoon. 00z NAM/GFS and
ECMWF are all in excellent agreement showing overrunning light
snow entering the SE zones late Wednesday, as the next shortwave
arrives embedded in the SW flow aloft. Pop grids are in the likely
category for the eastern counties Wednesday evening (Stafford,
Pratt, Barber), with thermal profiles suggesting snow will
transition to freezing rain with time. Some ice accumulation is
plausible across these areas Wednesday evening, and it will be
watched closely. Precipitation will end by sunrise Thursday as
shortwave exits.

Thursday...Yet another shortwave will eject out of the mean
longwave western U.S. trough, offering more light precipitation
potential. Chance category pops were retained. Most likely form is
freezing rain, but again QPF and coverage look modest.

Friday...Dry, with a break between shortwaves. Temperatures will
be allowed to moderate back into the 40s.

00z ECMWF drives the main trough axis into western Kansas on
Saturday, but it will be dampening and weakening as it arrives.
Another brief light wintry mix is offered by the model blend on
Saturday, but ECMWF is much drier for SW KS, with accumulating
snow remaining north of us (which would fit the trend we have
seen for months).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Poor flying weather has spread over the airports overnight, with
IFR stratus cigs, widespread freezing drizzle/mist and light
icing. North winds have increased as well, gusting over 30 mph.
Conditions will improve rapidly this morning, as dry advection
erodes the stratus and drizzle. VFR will return to all airports
no later than 18z. North wind gusts will continue in the 25-30 kt
range through 18z, before gradually diminishing this afternoon.
Expect VFR/SKC tonight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31   8  28  18 /  10   0  20  20
GCK  30   8  30  17 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  39  12  30  18 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  38  11  30  19 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  27   9  30  15 /   0   0   0  20
P28  33  17  30  22 /  10   0  40  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ030-
031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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