Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 210521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds
across the HYS terminal. A trough of low pressure will intensify
across far western Kansas bringing southerly winds around 11 knots to
the TAF sites. Sustained winds increase to around 15 knots by late
morning with gusts at 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 100  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  69  99  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  69  97  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
LBL  72 100  70  97 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  71 100  71  96 /  20  20  30  30
P28  75 100  72  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






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