Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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258
FXUS63 KDDC 232024
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
324 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A deep upper level closed low was situated along the Minnesota/Iowa
border this afternoon with a deep upper level trough dominating
much of the CONUS. Northerly flow aloft continued over the
northern and central High Plains and adjacent eastern slopes of
the Rockies. A shortwave trough was diving south out of the
Dakotas this afternoon and will move over western Kansas this
evening. Some weak instability had developed with daytime heating,
resulting in scattered showers and sprinkles across central and
southwest Kansas. This activity should diminish rapidly before
sunset with clouds diminishing later this evening as the shortwave
trough moves through.

Quiet weather is expected through tonight and Wednesday as an upper
level ridge builds in from the northern Plains and Rockies. A high
pressure ridge at the surface will move through western Kansas overnight
with northerly winds diminishing and becoming northwesterly by
Wednesday morning. Am not overly concerned with the potential for
frost tonight especially given that dewpoint temperatures are staying
above freezing. Cold snaps earlier in the week did not yield any frost
reports from area COOP observers. After collaboration with adjacent
offices to the northwest, will be removing the mention of patchy
frost tonight.

Wednesday will be sunny with light winds. Warmed temperatures a few
degrees tomorrow, ranging from around 70 in central/south central
Kansas to around 80 in the southwest corner around Elkhart.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

The upper level ridge over the central Plains on Wednesday will
move east of the region Wednesday night with westerly flow aloft
developing through the remainder of the week. A lee side trough
and eventually a surface low develops over eastern Colorado. A
cold front pushes south across western Kansas on Thursday as a
a shortwave trough moves out of the northern Rockies.
Thunderstorms could develop along the front and over the eastern
slopes of the Rockies which could impact mainly west central and
central Kansas Thursday night. The models show more thunderstorms
developing Friday night in the upslope flow north of the front
over eastern Colorado/western Kansas Friday night into the weekend.
Models differ somewhat on where the best chances for precipitation
will be but temperatures should be at or below normals through
much of the weekend as the front generally stays south of Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Daytime heating will bring gusty north winds to central and southwest
Kansas this afternoon. Scattered light rainshowers are also expected
to develop as weak instability develops. Will carry a period of VCSH
through the afternoon hours but showers, along with gusty winds, should
be diminishing by around 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  74  51  83 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  39  76  50  85 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  43  80  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  79  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  71  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
P28  44  72  50  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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