Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030447
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS, WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MID MONDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM
THERE. THERE APPEARS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS
SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE
BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE WAS
MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR
EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE CONFIDENCE AS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER FLOW, WHICH THE MODELS SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY
TO WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST PROCESS, AS WELL AS
THE GFS MOS TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK, WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10-15KT AFTER
12-15Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH
SMALL HAIL, STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR STORMS AFTER 22Z AT
KGCK AND AFTER 00Z AT DODGE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO 06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  30  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE



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