Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 141131
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
631 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
The upper level shortwave that helped push a surface trough through
the area this morning will move into the Great Lakes region today.
Meanwhile, a weakening upper level low will continue to slowly move
eastward through the Desert Southwest today and into New Mexico
tonight. A second shortwave moves into western Canada and Pacific
northwest today then into the Intermountain West tonight. Mid level
clouds will be observed across western Kansas today before
decreasing in coverage this evening into tonight. Towards the
surface, breezy northeasterly winds will be felt this morning behind
the aforementioned trough then become light and variable this
evening as the center of the dome of high pressure moves across
western Kansas. Winds will then be from the south to southwest at 5
to 10 mph after midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into
the lower to mid 60s with lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
The start of the long term period will see a shortwave trough moving
east into Texas while another wave drops out of the northern Rockies.
An associated cold front will push south across western Kansas
during the day. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could
develop along the front as it pushes through far southwest Kansas
during the afternoon hours. The best chances for measurable
precipitation may be just south of the border over the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles where better instability is progged to be. Will
keep a mention for isolated thunder along and north of the Oklahoma
border during the afternoon hours. Behind the front, northerly winds
and cold air advection increase into Saturday evening. Temperatures
in the lower levels could get cold enough for snow later Saturday
night but model soundings are not overly moist by then and
precipitation may be winding down before it is cold enough for snow.
Upper level ridging will occur over the central High Plains on
Sunday into Monday. Warm air advection ahead of the wave should push
temperatures back up into the lower 70s on Monday. The models are
having a little more trouble resolving the details with Tuesdays
shortwave. The 00z GFS now has this system closing off as it moves
out into the central High Plains. Only a few of the GFS ensemble
members line up with the stronger operational solution. The Euro and
Canadian models all show a more open wave. Will show slight chance
to chance pops across central and southwest Kansas during the day.
Will also increase winds across the area Tuesday afternoon and night.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
VFR skies and visibilities can be expected through this TAF
period. Northerly winds will be gusty to 25-30 knots at Garden
City and Dodge City at the beginning of the period. Winds are
expected to diminish to around 5 to 10 knots after 18z and become
light and variable by 00z.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 63 34 / 10 0 30 20
GCK 62 35 62 30 / 10 0 20 20
EHA 60 37 62 32 / 10 0 50 40
LBL 62 36 63 34 / 10 0 50 40
HYS 62 36 65 30 / 0 0 20 20
P28 66 38 66 37 / 10 0 30 30