000
FXUS63 KDDC 091709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

At 12z Sunday a 500mb trough extended from Missouri into west
central Texas. Anticyclonic flow was present at the 500mb level
across the Central High plains with 60 to 80 meter 12hour height
rises observed over Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado. A wedge of
warm 700mb and 850mb temperatures were present across eastern
Wyoming, western South Dakota, and western Nebraska, and 12z
Sunday 850mb temperatures in this area varied from +9C at North
Platte to +16c at Rapid City.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

Aggressive downslope warming event will begin today, although it
will really be focused just north of the DDC forecast into far
northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska just on the north side
of the crashing 500mb ridge axis. We will see enough of a pressure
gradient to support 14 to 17 knots of sustained wind this afternoon,
which will take a little bit out of what will otherwise be a very
pleasant day with plenty of direct insolation supporting
temperatures well into the 60s for highs. We increased the MaxT grid
a couple more degrees over the previous forecast.  Warmest
temperatures close to 70 can be expected from Syracuse to Scott City
with highs in the lower 60s over far south central Kansas, further
away from the influence of the lower tropospheric downslope
momentum. Tonight, winds will likely stay up just enough to keep the
boundary layer mixed, so overnight lows should be in the mid 30s
most everywhere. Some high cirrus clouds will begin to impinge on
west central Kansas during the night, however the influence of these
clouds on nocturnal temperatures is expected to be minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014

Medium range models indicate a closed off upper level low shifting
eastward across Texas Monday while a general westerly flow aloft
prevails across the Western High Plains. This will result in dry
conditions across western Kansas through early Tuesday with a lack
of low/mid level moisture and the bulk of the aforementioned system
remaining well off to our south. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave
will push ashore into the Pacific Northwest Monday then dig
southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains
Tuesday, bringing the possibility for precip to portions of western
Kansas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the upper level system
approaches, a strong attendant cold front will push southeast across
western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon providing ample forcing near
the surface. Meanwhile, an +90kt upper level jet is projected to
stream northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the panhandles
of Texas and Oklahoma...along with portions of southern Kansas.
The favorable dynamics aloft, combined with the significant low
level forcing, is expected to support some precip development
across portions of central and western Kansas late Tuesday.
However, a real lack of low/mid level moisture may limit much in
the way of measurable precip across the area. Any precip in the
evening is expected to be liquid initially with a switchover to
snow overnight. Significant widespread rainfall/snow
accumulations are not expected. Dry conditions are then
likely through at least Thursday as the flow aloft becomes
more westerly and significant moisture remains absent.

Temperatures will be well above normal Monday as lee side troughing
strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will set up a low level
southerly flow across western Kansas enhancing warm air advection
into the area. The GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures climbing up into
the mid Teens(C) across central and southwest Kansas by Monday
afternoon with model soundings indicating steepening lower level
lapse rates. Look for highs well up into the 70s(F) to near 80F
Monday. Much cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday as a
strong cold front pushes through western Kansas by early
afternoon. High temperatures are likely to occur earlier in the
day with highs only up into the 50s(F) and the lower to mid
60s(F). More seasonal temperatures are then forecast through the
end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR conditions are expected through tonight based on 12z BUFR
soundings which indicated that moisture will be limited across
western Kansas as an upper level ridge axis moves across the
Central High Plains. Southwest winds at around 15kts can be
expected this afternoon as a surface trough of low pressure
deepens along the lee of the Rockies. These southwest winds will
subside to 10kts or lees after sunset as the surface pressure
gradient weakens and the boundary layer winds decouples.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  33  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  31  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  35  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  66  31  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  34  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  63  32  76  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert