Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 302050
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WILL BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CLOUD FREE SKY OTHER THAN SOME VERY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS IS PROBABLE AS SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, A COOLER OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST THAN
HAS BEEN SEEN IN PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORTS UPPER 40S TO ABOUT 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND RAP13 ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AFTER 9
UTC, HOWEVER THE RAP 13 DOES NOT EXTEND ANY FARTHER  WEST THAN CENTRAL
KANSAS VERY PATCHY COVERAGE, WHILE THE NAM , WHICH IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE, EXTENDS AREAS OF FOG MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL
GFS MOS, BUT MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE WX GRIDS IN THE
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING, SURFACE WINDS
WILL AGAIN VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83-COLORADO BORDER CORRIDOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM MODEL PERHAPS TOO RAPIDLY
SURGES DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S LATE SUNDAY AND MID 60 BEYOND
THAT. NAM IS THE ONLY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD BRING SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM SE COLORADO INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY, A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AS OF THIS TIME NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ARW/NMM ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION IN THIS TIMEFRAME/AREA AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
THE UPCOMING SHORT TERM CONSENSUS PROCESS TO HANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS EACH EARLY
MORNING FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KS,
DRYING OUT THE STRATUS LAYER WITH TIME AS SURFACE WARMING INCREASES.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO
WELL BELOW 12 KNOTS AND VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GCK TERMINAL BY 15-18 UTC SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MINOR FLOODING ALONG CROOKED CREEK IN MEADE COUNTY CONTINUED THIS
AFTNEROON. HOWEVER THE STREAM HAS CROSSED BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE
RECENTLY AND THE WARNING IS CANCELED. UPSTREAM WATER ACROSS
CREEKS IN NORTHERN FORD AND SOUTHERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES COULD ADD
TO THE FLOW ON THE PAWNEE OVER THE NEXT DAY TO TWO AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR REACTIONS DOWNSTREAM ON THE PAWNEE TOWARDS
LARNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  77  58  83 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  79  59  84 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  54  82  60  90 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  49  79  60  87 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  45  76  56  82 /   0   0  30  30
P28  49  77  58  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
HYDROLOGY...RUSSELL


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