Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290806
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The next round of rain along with a few thunderstorms can be
expected to redevelop early this morning and continue through
early tonight. The main question this morning is where the band of
steadier and heavier rainfall will occur. The RAP, NAM and GFS
were all in good agreement with enhanced rainfall developing along
a 850mb to 700mb frontogenetic band and near the 500mb
deformation zone northwest of the upper low that will lift north
northeast across Oklahoma towards south central Kansas today. The
NAM was further west with this band placing it around GCK while
the GFS kept this forcing in south central Kansas. The RAP was in
between these extremes and at this time will follow this solution
based on the latest Radar trends at 08z, I300/I305 isentropic
surfaces, and all three models kept the better PWAT and 950mb to
850mb moisture transport east of DDC. Do not think rainfall rates
in this band will be as heavy as yesterday but 6 hourly rainfall
totals of 0.75 to 1 inch will be possible between 12z and 18z
Wednesday. Based on this expected rainfall this morning and the
rain that fell yesterday a few locations could observe ditches
running full or possibly even some minor flooding in poor drainage
areas of low water crossings. Widespread water issues however are
not expected so will not be issuing any type of flood/flash flood
watch for today. Further east in south central Kansas some
steadier and heavier showers or even a few isolated thunderstorms
will be possible under the upper low that is forecast to cross
this area early this afternoon.

Little if any rise in temperatures can be expected today and if
anything the temperatures may even begin to fall a couple of
degrees during the afternoon.

Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning as the upper low moves east northeast
across eastern Kansas. Moisture wrapping around the upper low
will keep skies cloudy during the overnight period but a gusty
north wind will deliver some chilly temperatures by early Thursday
morning. Given the cold air advection developing late Wednesday
night the lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s. Wind
chills in some areas might even fall back to around 20 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Any lingering early morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny
skies by Thursday afternoon as subsidence develops behind an upper
low as it moves into Missouri. What cold air that did return to
southwest Kansas early Thursday morning will begin to erode during
the day and based on the 850mb temperatures at 00z Friday the
highs across western Kansas are expected to range from the upper
50s to near 65.

Thursday night into early Friday our next upper low will move
east across the four corners region and approach western Kansas.
Southeasterly winds will return and begin to draw more humid air
back into southwest Kansas. Stratus and fog will again be possible
Thursday night and gusty southeast winds are expected during the
day on Friday as an area of pressure deepens across eastern New
Mexico in response to this next approaching upper wave. Will need
to monitor the cloud cover on Friday because this will be
important to how warm temperatures will get Friday afternoon. At
this time have decided to stay close to the latest guidance given
the uncertainty of sky cover.

The GFS and ECMWF both hint that this next system will move east
from New Mexico into Oklahoma which suggests another extended
period of precipitation for southwest Kansas. The better
opportunity for precipitation will be from late Friday night
through Saturday night. This rain will be a cold rain as gusty
north winds on Saturday advect some colder air into western
Kansas. Guidance may be too warm given the forecast cold air
advection under cloudy skies and ongoing precipitation. As this
next system moves east of the area another brief warm up can be
expected as yet another upper level system approaches western
Kansas

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Models indicating ceilings in the low IFR or LIFR categories over
at least the next 18z hours as widespread rain returns to western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Gusty northeast winds at 15 to 20
knots will continue overnight as an area of low pressure at the
surface deepens and lifts north northeast towards south central
Kansas. Towards 18z Wednesday the gusty north winds will increase
to around 20 knots and what patchy fog that does develop overnight
will dissipate.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  36  58  34 / 100  70  10   0
GCK  44  35  62  36 / 100  50   0   0
EHA  46  33  65  37 /  90  40   0   0
LBL  47  35  63  37 / 100  50   0   0
HYS  44  38  54  35 /  90  80  20   0
P28  53  41  57  37 /  80  60  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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