Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311106
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An MCS was rolling out of southwest and into south central Kansas early
this morning. The back edge of this system had redeveloped over portions
of far southwest Kansas for a few hours early this morning on the nose
of a low level jet advecting a fairly significant plume of instability
from west Texas into southwest Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis shows this plume
and 850 mb moisture transport shifting eastward as the low level veers
through the early morning hours. Another scattered area of showers
was moving east out of southeast Colorado into far southwest Kansas
and had increased in intensity as it moves into the remnants of
instability axis. The central High Plains will be under cyclonic
flow between a strong upper low over the northern Plains and an
upper level trough axis moving slowly out of the Desert Southwest.
Given some modest instability left over across the area, scattered
showers and thunderstorms should continue today.

By tonight the northern Plains low will lift northeast into Quebec
while the southwestern trough continues to slowly move into the
southern Plains. Precipitation chances tonight will gradually
diminish as the upper support moves east.

With more cloudiness expected today along with some increasing low
level cool advection, the going temperature forecast in the 70s
looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Drier weather is in store for the remainder of the week. The upper
trough over the southern Plains on Wednesday will slowly meander
east and southeast through Texas. Another fast moving shortwave
trough will move into the northern Rockies on Thursday. As this
wave continues east, strong upper level ridging will develop over
the western states while the shortwave undergoes an anticyclonic
wave break over the Midwest and Great Lakes region by this weekend.
The central High Plains will come under northwesterly flow aloft.
Details in meso to synoptic scale features in this flow pattern
become a little more uncertain between the different models. There
could be a few opportunities for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
moving off the front range into parts of western Kansas late this
weekend. This pattern would support that possibility but a lot of
uncertainty remains. Temperatures will slowly increase to around
seasonal levels through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A few showers will be possible over the DDC and GCK terminals over
the next couple of hours. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
throughout the day with decreasing mid level clouds. Winds will be
shifting to a northerly direction by this afternoon behind a cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  54  77  53 /  50  50  10   0
GCK  74  53  76  52 /  30  30  10   0
EHA  74  54  73  54 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  76  54  75  53 /  50  50  20  10
HYS  74  53  77  52 /  40  20  10   0
P28  78  59  77  56 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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