000
FXUS63 KDDC 280950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD