Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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086
FXUS63 KDDC 202359
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A cold dome of high pressure will build into western Kansas
overnight as an upper level trough begins to establish itself over
the Southwest United States. A weak upper level disturbance
embedded in the developing southwesterly flow over the Rockies
will cross the Western High Plains early tonight and bring some
increasing clouds, however based on the light winds and period of
clear conditions early Wednesday morning will favor undercutting
the coldest guidance for lows tonight, especially east and south
of Dodge City where less clouds are anticipated. Along with the
increasing cloud cover there could even be a few flurries during
the overnight but should anything develop it will be very light
and not accumulate.

Moisture and lift will be increasing during the afternoon on
Wednesday based on the air 850mb moisture and warm air advection
along with isentropic lift in the 285 to i295 level. The better
moisture and lift late day will be near and east/southeast of
Dodge City given the latest NAM and GFS so will retain mention of
precipitation developing in this area through the late day. This
precipitation may begin as snow but as the warm air advection
improves late day/early Wednesday night the precipitation is
expected to change over to freezing rain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

For Wednesday night..The GFS and NAM continues to spread this
moisture and lift westward with even the Garden City model
soundings indicating a moist layer deep enough for some very light
precipitation by 12z Thursday. Temperature profiles Wednesday
night indicating more of a freezing drizzle/freezing rain
precipitation type during the overnight period. The chance for
this wintry mix of precipitation will continue until the upper
level trough crosses western Kansas which currently is forecast to
occur early Thursday. At this time the area most favorable for
ice accumulations along with even some minor snow accumulations
will be east and south of Dodge City so will be issuing a winter
weather advisory for freezing drizzle and freezing rain along and
east of highway 183 Wednesday night. If traveling across western
or central Kansas Wednesday night you will want to stay up to date
with the latest weather information. Would not be surprised to
have a few slick spots developing further west given the
potential for freezing drizzle development on Thursday further
west and the duration of these chances of this light
precipitation.

In the later periods the models remain in good agreement with an
upper level trough remaining nearly stationary over the western
United States through late week. Another upper level wave is
forecast to rotate around the base of this upper level system and
move out into the central plains late week as the cold dome of
high pressure slowly crosses the Central and Northern Plains.
Increasing clouds along with even a chance for precipitation will
once again be possible from our next upper level systems later
this week and with some cool air remaining near the surface this
precipitation chance may be in the form of a wintry mix for some
locations in northern Kansas. Precipitation amounts may not be
high but the precipitation type warrants later shifts to monitor
this event should the lower levels end up being cooler than what
the latest models suggest.

The Western United States upper low will weaken as it moves east
toward the Central Plains over the weekend, however ensembles
indicated differences on how this will occur. Still given these
differences it appears that our surface boundary in the Texas
Panhandle will begin to lift north across western Kansas which
should result in some warmer, more seasonal, temperatures. There
will also be a chance for precipitation as well. Once this upper
level trough crosses the Central Plains late this weekend another
shot of colder air will return to western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Clear skies can be expected through 10z as arctic high pressure
builds in. Winds are already diminishing to 10-12 kts. However,
toward morning, low to mid level warm advection will develop, with
cloud developing AOA080 and then slowly lowering to MVFR during
the day. Light snow may develop as far west as KDDC or even KGCK
by 21z and then change to light freezing drizzle at KDDC and KHYS
well after the TAF period ends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   8  25  18  36 /   0  10  20  30
GCK   6  27  17  38 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  11  28  18  48 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  11  26  17  42 /   0  10  10  20
HYS   7  28  16  32 /   0  10  20  20
P28  12  28  22  35 /   0  40  60  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for KSZ066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch



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