Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291119
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MUCH MORE
ACTIVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPECIFICALLY, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE COUNTRY TODAY WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. A POTENT WAVE WITH
AN ASSOCIATED 130-KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS DISLODGED A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA
WITH THE FRONT ALREADY SITTING NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF COLDER AIR WILL
NOT INVADE WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAIN ISSUE INITIALLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN RESPONSE TO SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF ASCENT,
THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL LOWER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INTO
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK.  THIS WILL PERMIT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THEN SPREAD FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES WILL BE LIGHT AND MOISTURE CONTENT LOW YET
POWDER-LIKE NATURE OF SNOW MAY PERMIT ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AS TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS COMBINE WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TO
BRING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. GIVEN BOTH THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WIND CHILL POTENTIAL MENTIONED ABOVE, ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THEN BE SHUNTED OVER TO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO END ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY IN TO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES. LOWS LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES WITH WEST CENTRAL
AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS SLIPPING BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FEEL EVEN COLDER
WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UNDER WAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESADY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES.

MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FRIDAY
THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. KANSAS LOOKS TO BE ON
THE NORTH END OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BOTH DAYS. AS OF NOW, THERE COULD BE A
WARM NOSE ALOFT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD ALLOW MULTIPLE
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION TO BE OBSERVED. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE MONITORED AS WE
APPROACH THIS EVENT. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REACH INTO THE MID 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31   3  10  -1 /  20  60  50  10
GCK  26   1   8  -3 /  50  70  60  10
EHA  27   2  10  -1 /  20  60  60  20
LBL  31   7  13   0 /  20  60  60  20
HYS  26   0   8  -4 /  60  60  40  10
P28  38  11  17   5 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-
074>079-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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