Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241924

224 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated short term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

A surface high/ridge axis will move across western Kansas early
tonight, and then move into Oklahoma after midnight. At this time
the lighter winds between 06z and 12z Friday will be across south
central Kansas so will undercut guidance for lows in this area.
Further west where a southerly flow increases to around 10 mph
will continue to favor the current forecast with temperatures
slightly above the latest MAV and MET guidance.

A surface trough of low pressure will deepen during the day on
Friday near the Kansas/Colorado border. 850mb temperatures
indicate at 7c to near 10c 24hour warm up from 00z Friday to 00z
Saturday, especially in southwest Kansas where afternoon
dewpoints are expected to be only in the mid 20s. Based on the
850mb temperature trends the highs on Friday should easily climb
into the low to mid 80s. Based on the mixing potential on Friday
the southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by
late morning with the stronger wind speeds being near and east of
highway 83. Wind speeds will be weaker further west due to the
expected location of the surface lee trough. Based on the wind
speed late day across southwest Kansas combined with afternoon relative
humidities falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range the fire
danger levels will range from elevated to near critical. At this
time confidence on wind speeds meeting Red Flag Warning Criteria
is not high so after collaboration between surrounding offices am
leaning towards not issuing a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning. Will updated the Hazardous weather outlook to mention the
increased fire danger levels.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Gusty northwest winds will decrease during the afternoon and
early evening period as an area of high pressure at the surface
moves into the Central High Plains. As this area of high pressure
moves into western Oklahoma overnight the light winds will become
south and begin to gradually increase to around 10 knots by 12z
Friday. Southerly winds will continue to increase early Friday as
a trough of low pressure deepens near the Colorado border. VFR
conditions can be expected through Friday given the subsidence
developing behind the upper level trough moving east towards
Missouri today along with limit moisture forecast across western
Kansas based on BUFR soundings.



Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Friday afternoon. Afternoon
dewpoints west of highway 83 will fall back into the mid to upper 20s
which will result in relative humidity values bottoming out
between 10 to 15 percent range by late day. Wind speeds west of
highway 83 will be 10 to 20 mph. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions are expected Friday late afternoon. Outdoor
burning is discouraged.


DDC  42  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  42  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  86  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
P28  41  83  58  90 /   0   0   0  40




SHORT TERM...Burgert
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