Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...Updated Short and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Early morning thunderstorms will end by late morning. An upper
level trough, located over southwest New Mexico at 00z Sunday,
will begin to lift northeast towards southwest Kansas by the early
afternoon. Some mid to high level moisture preceding this upper
level trough should result in more afternoon clouds compared to
yesterday afternoon. This combined with some slight cooling around
the 850mb level from the southeasterly winds this afternoon will
result in highs being only a few degrees cooler than yesterday.

As the next upper level system approaches from the southwest late
today there will be another chance for thunderstorms near a
surface boundary which will be located near the Colorado border.
Late day convection near the Colorado border will then spread east
northeast across much of western Kansas during the overnight
hours. Given where the better moisture and instability will be
located early tonight will place the higher chances for this
convection west of highway 83. As this convection moves east
overnight these storms are expected to weaken and become more
widely scattered. Based on the 700mb and 500mb wind fields the
flow will be weak over western Kansas overnight. 0-6km shear will
be 10 knots or less. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds appear to be
the main hazard from this scattered convection tonight.

Areas in south central Kansas will also have an opportunity for a
few early evening thunderstorms given better late day instability
as a possible weak 500mb vort lobe advances northwest across
Oklahoma. Confidence at this time is not high with this evening
convection but the potential is there so will insert an area of
small chances of thunderstorms southeast of Dodge City early this

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The chance for thunderstorms will continue through at least the
first half of the work week as subtle upper level disturbances
crosses western Kansas as they rotate around an upper high that
will be sliding/building west towards the mid to lower Mississippi
Valley. Based on weak flow and high precipitable water forecast
over western Kansas next week the primary hazard from these storms
will be continued heavy rainfall along with gusty winds. Exactly
where and when the better chances for this heavy rainfall will
occur is unclear, but based on the latest models it does appear
that western Kansas will be in the area favorable for widespread
heavy rainfall from late Monday night through Wednesday. The
weather prediction center this morning also places much of western
Kansas in a marginal risk on Day 3 for excessive rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will spread east across southwest Kansas
overnight. These storms are expected to weaken/dissipate as they
move east through the early morning hours. At this time given the
latest models these storms will stay south of the Garden City and
Dodge City airports tonight. Model soundings indicating VFR
ceilings are expected overnight and Sunday. The Winds will mainly
be from the south at around 10 knots. On Sunday these southerly
winds will increase to around 15 knots by late morning.


DDC  87  65  85  65 /  20  30  40  40
GCK  88  63  83  63 /  20  40  40  40
EHA  87  63  81  62 /  30  30  40  40
LBL  88  65  83  63 /  20  30  50  40
HYS  88  66  84  65 /  10  30  40  40
P28  89  68  87  68 /  20  20  30  30


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.