Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020549
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1149 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOUND ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AS A BIG UPPER LOW REMAINED ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. REMNANT COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINED LOCKED IN PLACE WITH
ALMOST NO ADVECTION OCCURRING THANKS TO VERY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 850MB, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOME LOWER RH AIR TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AIDING IN THE
EVENTUAL SCOURING OUT OF STRATUS. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH,
AS WE REMAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN TO THE LOWER 20S BY 09-12Z MONDAY MORNING,
AND WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER). DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
MOVE SLOWLY EAST, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE TROUGH, BUT RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANGE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS BY MIDDAY,
BUT THE WINDS WILL STILL BE COLD, WITH THE TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM
AROUND THE REMNANT SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 37F
RANGE AS A GENERAL RULE (COOLEST IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS).
ELKHART SHOULD TOUCH LOWER 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE LEE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

COLD UPSLOPE AIR ENTRENCHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS PROMOTING
SOME STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SW KS. THE TREND WAS FOR THIS
STRATUS TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME WINDY AT AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  36  34  43 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  22  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  21  41  36  43 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  22  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  19  34  33  38 /   0  10  10  10
P28  19  35  33  47 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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