Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
502 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY; BUT ALL
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM KICKER SYSTEM WAS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH A 70F READING AT
LIBERAL. FARTHER EAST, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERED, WITH MEDICINE
LODGE ONLY AT 51 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS MOVING BACK
INTO HAYS AND DODGE CITY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT DODGE CITY EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY
LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL HE HELD UP INTO THE LOWER 50S BY CLOUD COVER
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHILE UPPER 30S CAN BE
EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER
50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ON MONDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS THIS SYSTEM SHOW SOME FAIRLY DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR MAY
ONLY BE IN THE FORM OF VIRGA. WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SPREADING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND IT. ON THURSDAY THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY MAY BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY. AT ANY RATE, FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD ALSO BE MUCH
COLDER BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS SCOURED OUT AS UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN IFR CIGS AT
KDDC AND KHYS LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND KDDC
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL
TAF SITES BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT THEN TURNING NORTHERLY 25 TO 35KT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SUBSIDING BELOW 25KT SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  51  26  48 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  36  50  24  47 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  36  49  24  49 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  38  51  24  50 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  43  50  29  46 /  10  20   0   0
P28  51  56  32  52 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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