Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221720
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today will be hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the central
and eastern zones to low 100s across far western Kansas. Attention
then turns to this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible once again
with the highest chances across the western zones. CAMs are suggesting
two rounds of convection. The first this evening along and west of
Highway 83. The second round of convection comes late tonight and through
the overnight period from thunderstorms originating from NE Colorado
to NW Kansas. This activity will eventually drift SE if convection
can hold together. The main threat will be outflow winds of 60-70 mph
as the lower atmosphere will be mixed with an inverted v thermo profile.
There could be some hail, although marginal bulk shear and upscale
growth should limit overall larger sizes. For tonight, lows in the
60s are forecast for much of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

There will be bouts of convection in the long term domain. The synoptic
pattern is a west to northwest flow aloft, which is conducive to some
MCSs. The first that is possible is early Friday. Residual cloud cover
on this day may limit overall highs with mainly 70s. Low level upslope
flow in combination with a northwest flow aloft during the weekend
will still keep a favorable synoptic pattern for thunderstorm complexes
to march across the Kansas prairie. Temperatures will be pleasant
over the weekend with the cloud cover and precipitation around - 70s
to lower 80s. Beyond the weekend, only isolated storms for the beginning
of the week are expected along with warmer/moderating temperatures.
The extended period ends with hot temperatures as WAA strengthens ahead
of approaching synoptic disturbances from the northwest and stronger
low level downslope flow. The good news is there might be enough low
level moisture in place to generate some storms across the forecast
district.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Southerly winds at around 15 knots can be expected today across
western Kansas ahead of a surface cold front which will be
approaching Hays and Garden City by early evening. As this cold
front continues to move south overnight these southerly winds will
shift to the north. In addition to the shifting winds with this
cold front there will also be a chance for some scattered
thunderstorms late today and early tonight. As for timing of
convection near the terminals today will follow a combination of
the HRRR, ARW, and NMM. High cloud bases are expected with these
storms based on the 12z models soundings so VFR conditions are
likely. The exception will be brief periods of reduced visibility
due to the heavy rainfall from some of these storms. Also strong
gusty winds will be possible from these thunderstorms late today
and early tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  63  78  58 /  20  30  30  10
GCK 102  60  76  57 /  30  40  30  10
EHA 101  60  74  58 /  20  50  20  10
LBL 101  64  76  59 /  10  40  20  10
HYS  98  63  76  56 /  30  40  40   0
P28  96  69  82  59 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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