179
FXUS63 KDDC 101935
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous strong to severe thunderstorm late this afternoon and
  this evening with initial storms developing in the 3-4 PM CDT
  time frame, between Highway 83 and the Colorado line

- The main severe weather risk will be damaging straight line
  winds. There is a 10% chance of 75 mph or greater thunderstorm
  wind gusts with 25 miles of a point, generally west of a
  Liberal to Dodge City to Hays line.

- Given the fairly quick moving line of storms, the potential
  for excessive rainfall/flooding is quite low, but some areas
  will still see around an inch of rain locally.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A fairly widespread strong/severe thunderstorm event is still on
track for late this afternoon and evening. Water vapor loop and RAP
objective analysis fields showed a low amplitude, yet strong
shortwave trough moving across northern Colorado and southern
Wyoming. The exit region of a 250mb jet streak (55-60 knot jet core)
was entering eastern Colorado and far western Kansas, marking the
leading edge of strongest forcing for ascent. At the surface, a
trough axis with fairly strong zone of convergence extended from
between Springfield, CO and Elkhart, KS north-northeastward to
between Leoti and Scott City, KS. This will most likely be the
initial zone of deep moist convection initiation sometime in the 20-
21Z time frame. SBCAPE in this region is around 3000 J/kg on a
surface parcel of mid 90s over lower to mid 60s dewpoint. Dewpoints
did not quite mix out as much as models earlier indicated, thus
greater surface-based instability supporting stronger convection.
Deep layer shear looks pretty good as well with 6km AGL winds around
30 knots from the west with 500m AGL winds SSW at 20 to 30 knots for
a shear magnitude of around 30 knots in this layer, which is
supportive of organized multicell and even some incipient supercell
structures before cold pools become dominant and upscale growth
ensues later this evening.

The 1630Z SPC Day One outlook of 10% "Hatched" area for significant
wind (defined as peak thunderstorm wind gusts of 75+ mph) looks
pretty good with intense downdraft potential given the fairly high
CAPE, Downdraft CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and the deep layer shear
supporting well-organized updrafts with fairly good potential for
strong mid-altitude radial convergence (MARC) radar signatures with
the strongest storms supporting 70 to 80 mph gusts. This is most
likely early on in the event before outflows really run amuk,
generally west of a Liberal to Dodge to Hays line and mainly prior
to 9 PM CDT (02Z).

Beyond tonight, the forecast has not changed all that much, as we
are still looking at a cold front pushing south over the weekend. A
pre-frontal trough will lead to northeasterly winds Friday
afternoon, but the air mass will still be quite warm supporting
highs well into the lower 90s, and a weak cap will support renewed
thunderstorm development in vicinity of this trough axis. The cooler
air upstream will not arrive until later Friday evening/night with
850mb temperatures dropping into the teens. This refreshing air mass
from up north will lead to a "cooler" Saturday with highs generally
in the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will climb back to around 90
by Sunday with similar temperatures Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely impact all four
terminals this evening. Ahead of the storms, a strong south wind
will continue 20 to 25 knots sustained with gusts in the lower
to mid 30s knots at times. The broken line of storms will move
fairly quickly east, but will have a 4-5 hour window of VCTS to
account for uncertainty in timing. Within the VCTS group will
carry a 2-hr PROB30 group with thunderstorms and wind gusts 45
to 50 knots. After the storms move through later tonight, winds
will settle down to less than 12 knots for the most part, and
flight category will likely improve to VFR.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid