Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 012002
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
302 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT HELPED PUSH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS OF 2 PM, THIS "OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY" EXTENDED FROM COLDWATER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. EVEN NORTH OF
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE RECOVERING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACHED 90F WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F AT MEDICINE
LODGE, ALTHOUGH THERE WAS STILL A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AT THE
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PAHNANDLE WAS
BECOMING STATIONARY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF BARBER COUNTY IN
OKLAHOMA ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS PROBABLY STAYING DRY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS BARBER COUNTY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS; WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD TO LARNED AND STAFFORD WHERE STRATUS PERSISTED. OTHER
AREAS WERE WARMING A LITTLE FASTER.

DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT, THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A
LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT,
WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM DODGE CITY SOUTH AND EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS IS
TYPICAL, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
12Z (7 AM), RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO
EASTERN KANSAS BY THAT TIME. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 3000
J/KG ELEVATED CAPE; BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE
MODEST ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE, WITH THUNDERSTORM CLOUD BASES
AROUND 800MB AT MEDICINE LODGE AND 760MB AT DODGE CITY. USING 25KT
OF CLOUD DEPTH SHEAR, ALONG WITH 3000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE, THE
LHP (LOCALLY DEVELOPED, LARGE HAIL PARAMETER) SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FLAT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RETURN TO
WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARM SURGE OF AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO CLOSE TO
100F ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS LIKE LIBERAL. A FAIRLY STRONG
POLAR JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER NOT BEFORE WE HAVE ONE
MORE ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 90S. THEN THINGS BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONT
TIMING, STRENGTH, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THIS
FRONT AND WILL BE CARRYING CHANCE POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, ADVECTION OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE 30 PERCENT POPS INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS BOTH MODELS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE GREATER
QPF SIGNAL TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER (MORE
SO BY THE GFS MODEL). THIS IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE TWO
MODELS END. THE ECMWF ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN CHECK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WARM FRONT, WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE TROUGHING/LOWER
HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH. GIVEN THE
USUAL BETTER SKILL IN THE DAY 5-6 FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF, THIS
COOLER SOLUTION WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. OFFICIALLY IN THE GRIDS,
SATURDAY HIGHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS, BUT SHOULD THE ECMWF RUN
VERIFY, THEN IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER WINDS TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS 12 TO 15 KNOTS ON AVERAGE. A
FEW LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS GARDEN CITY
TO DODGE CITY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUSION IN THE TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  88  68  97 /  30  20  10   0
GCK  62  88  67  96 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  63  89  66  96 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  64  89  69  99 /  20  10  10   0
HYS  61  87  67  95 /  20  10  20  10
P28  69  91  72  97 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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