000
FXUS63 KDDC 070845
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward
out of the Central Plains today. Meanwhile, the upper level
shortwave in the Pacific Northwest will deepen as it digs southeast
across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains later today
bringing the possibility for precip to portions of western Kansas
this evening into early Saturday. As the upper level system
approaches, an attendant cold front ahead of it will push southeast
across southwest and central Kansas this afternoon while moisture
continues to pool ahead of the boundary. Although the flow aloft
is expected to remain fairly weak, precip is likely to develop
sometime this evening across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas in a band of increased H7 frontogenesis, then spread
southeastward overnight into early Saturday morning. Based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, initial precip type is expected to be
liquid with a switchover to snow generally west to east as colder
air surges southward dropping vertical profile temperatures below
freezing. Snow amounts may be a challenge though depending how
much liquid falls beforehand, potentially melting initial
snowfall. Still, both the NAM and GFS indicate QPF signals of just
over a quarter inch across extreme southwest Kansas toward 12Z
Saturday morning. As a result, upward of 1 to 2 inches of snow
may be possible generally along and west of Highway 83 in far
southwest Kansas with lighter amounts eastward. An advisory
may be needed eventually Saturday morning for western portions
of southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be cooler today as colder air begins to surge
southward into western Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing
through the region by this afternoon. The NAM/GFS show the H85
0C isotherm dipping southward into central Kansas by early to mid
afternoon resulting in cooler high temperatures near the I-70
corridor. Highs are expected well up into the 40s(F) with near
50F possible here with the 50s(F) further south. A few lower to
mid 60s(F) may be possible closer to the Oklahoma border depending
on the timing of the frontal boundary. Look for lows down into the
20s(F) Friday night as arctic high pressure pushes southward out
of the Northern Plains into Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.

A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.

A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR condtions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday
afternoon. As for winds, southerly winds of 5 to 15kt will persist
overnight as surface low pressure remains anchored across eastern
Colorado. However, winds will become northerly 20 to 30kt by early
Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes southeastward across
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  26  42  26 /   0  60  60   0
GCK  54  26  47  26 /  20  60  50   0
EHA  60  28  47  28 /  20  60  60   0
LBL  60  27  44  26 /  20  60  70   0
HYS  48  25  48  26 /   0  30  30   0
P28  57  28  37  24 /   0  60  70   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson