Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262135
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE NAM MODEL SEEMED TO OUTPERFORM THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USED AS A GUIDE IN COMBINATION WITH CURRENT TRENDS TO
PLACE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REST AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE WHETHER TO EXTEND EITHER IN TIME AND
AREAL COVERAGE OR DROP THE ADVISORY ALTOGETHER  AT 4 PM. AT THIS
TIME, EXTENSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY. THE NAM INDICATED AN
INTSENSIFICATION OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NON FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FOR
VERTICAL MOTION. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM THE
DISSIPATION OF VERTICAL MOTION, CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR SEES A BUMP IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES (WHICH THE NAM SEEMS TO
REFLECT), AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WELL ENOUGH MIXED AND SLIGHTLY
DOWNSLOPED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY BRINGING ABOUT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A LACK OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTING UP A
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONINCIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AFTER EXITING THE
TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST. AS A RESULT, SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL, WEAK QPF SIGNALS SUGGEST
LIGHTER AMOUNTS, IF ANY.

ALTHOUGH REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR SLOW TO ERODE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
H85 0C ISOTHERM BEGINNING TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH BUT REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EVEN WITH
DECREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
30S(F) SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40F STILL A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROJECT A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS COULD BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS(F)
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZDZ OR MIX OF FZDZ/SN WILL OCCUR BEFORE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE COLD AND SATURATED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUD
SEEDING AND ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. TAF MAY NEED OPT BE AMENDED
TO FOLLOW THIS TREND THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND
500 FEET DURING THE BRIEF SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT ALL THE TERMINALS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 1000 FT OR
GREATER ONCE THE SNOW EPISODE ENDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  32  16  38 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  14  31  15  36 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  13  32  16  39 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  17  34  15  39 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  16  29  15  36 /  60   0   0   0
P28  21  38  18  41 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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