Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270611
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
111 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated short...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A synoptic disturbance currently located across western wyoming will
round the edge of a large anticyclone to the south. This upper level
disturbance will eventually eject out across the central and northern
plains later today. As this does, this feature will usher in the passage
of a weak front across kansas. Late afternoon and evening storms will
develop along this boundary. Have the highest pops from Hays, down to
near Dodge City, and wrapping back up to the northeast towards Stafford
county. This is a blend of the two arw cores, which shows the strongest
frontogenesis in this region. A low to moderate amount of sbcape is
forecast to develop (1000-2000 J/kg). Bulk shear will be weak too (20-30
kt). The main threats with the storms are 50-60 mph winds, nickel to
quarter size hail and moderate rainfall amounts. Under the strongest
storm, would not rule out 1" of rain. More realistically, rain amounts
will be spotty with lower amounts of less than inch for much of the
region. Have pops tapering quickly through the overnight period. Some
of the models continue precip through early Friday morning as a weak
low level jet develops and aides in lift. Otherwise, highs today are
expected to be in the 90s with lows in mainly in the 60s for Friday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

On Thursday night the cold front will move across southwest Kansas
as the upper level trough slowly crosses the Central High Plains.
These thunderstorms will spread east/southeast during the
overnight hours as the upper wave crosses western Kansas. At this
time the better chances for convection overnight will be between
9pm and 3 am based on the timing of the upper level trough
overnight, along with the mid level forcing, and the location of
the surface cold front overnight. Brief periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with some of these
storms Thursday night, mainly north of a Pratt to Dodge City to
Garden City line. Will therefore focus the better chances for
convection across north central Kansas during the overnight hours.

Any lingering precipitation in south central Kansas early Friday
morning will end as the upper level trough continues to move
across central and eastern Kansas. Cooler air will also begin to
filter into western Kansas early in the day as the surface cold
front moves into Oklahoma. Based on the cooling trend forecast in
the 900mb to 850mb level the highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
on Friday.

As the upper level trough continues to move east into the mid
Mississippi Valley early this weekend an upper level ridge axis
will develop and move east into the Rockies. This upper level
ridge axis will continue to shift east into the Western High
Plains over the weekend and early next week, and a northwesterly
down slope flow is expected to improve. A slow warming trend is
expected across western Kansas over the weekend into early next
week as the down slope flow improves so will stay close to the
warming trend from the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Cigs should be primarily vfr through the tad period. The will be high
level clouds through the overnight and into tomorrow. Will use a prob30
for convection for night. Winds will be southerly then veer SSW 10-20
kt through much of tomorrow, and back southerly by evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  62  88 /  50  10   0   0
GCK  64  88  61  88 /  40  10   0   0
EHA  64  88  61  88 /  40  10  10   0
LBL  66  89  61  89 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  65  87  62  88 /  60  10   0   0
P28  70  91  66  89 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden



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