Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211811
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
111 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A wet day in store for the entire forecast area, with rainfall
amounts on the order of an inch expected under the cold conveyor
belt of this developing dynamic low.  We made significant changes
for afternoon highs today, following the cooler WRF highs only in
the 40s to around 50 degrees this afternoon. The upper 500 mb low
should be positioned squarely over our forecast area by the
middle of this afternoon, ensuring the entire area located in low
clouds and rain shower bands allowing little warming from
insolation. Rapid clearing from subsidence could occur in the
extreme southwest by late day. However, the signal from the
models suggests rain showers persisting across much of the area
east of highway 283 through at least midnight as the broad upper
low is slow to move toward the Mississippi Valley.

Temperatures will be colder on Saturday morning, however probably
not as cold that frost should be an issue so quick behind the
exiting system. Frost risk is probably greater looking ahead to
Sunday morning when more clearing, radiational cooling and lighter
surface winds are likely.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Main weather impacts in the extended appear to lean towards fire
weather again as the temperatures moderate into early next week, as
well as a brief threat for frost/freeze on Sunday morning. Right
now, the coldest solutions for Sunday morning are the NAM/WRF and
it`s MOS lows with temperatures falling as cold as 30 through the
Ark Valley from Dodge City west. Fire weather may become elevated
as temperatures warm into the 80s early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Showers will persist through 21-23z and then move off to the
east as an upper level trough passes. Cold advection will develop
tonight with low cloud persisting much of the night. CUGS may
lower to MVFR/IFR and then improve by 14-16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  38  58  34 /  90  50  10   0
GCK  48  36  58  32 /  90  30  10   0
EHA  49  35  57  35 /  90  20   0   0
LBL  50  37  58  33 / 100  20   0   0
HYS  48  39  59  36 /  90  80   0   0
P28  51  41  59  37 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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