Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180822 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

There was not much change in the extended period.  The early part of
the Days 3-7 period will be dominated by an upper level high
pressure system over the 4-corners area, and it will start to
migrate eastward through the southern plains on late Tuesday, and
should be over Florida by early Thursday.  A long wave trough will
form over the northwest part of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday,
while a cut off upper low forms off the western coast of
California by Tuesday and then builds southwestward off the
southwest coast of California by Wednesday and Thursday.

A surface trough will be anchored over southwest Kansas from
Wednesday into Friday night, when then a cold front will surge south
from Nebraska and be through southwest Kansas by Sunday.  This means
it will hot with highs in the upper 90s to around 100F each day, and
lows basically in the lower to mid 70s in our north, along and north
of the I-70 corridor, and as warm as the mid to upper 70s in the
southeast sections near the Coldwater and Medicine Lodge.  It may
cool down into max temps in the 80s on Sunday, behind that front.
With the lower level heating, a surface boundary present in the
afternoon troughing, and just small ripples aloft in the upper
flow, there will be 20 to 30 percent chances for sporadic
thunderstorm activity, but no widespread coverage any particular day.
Also, with that surface trough straddled across our CWA each day,
it will become breezy during the afternoons with south winds in 15
to 25 mph and gusty range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Scattered showers will continue to develop through 08-12Z. A
trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies with
light south to southwest winds becoming south 10-20kt in the
afternoon. At KHYS a weak cold front will push across with light
and variable winds becoming northeasterly at 5-15kt after 17Z. VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse





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