Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

 LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE ALONG
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION WAS A
BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY AT GCK TO AROUND 2 1/2 MILES.  THESE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDAY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLWOS SHOULD KEEP CPNVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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