Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S, WILL PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD


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