Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282128
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

EXTREMELY QUIET AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT THAT
WILL ROLL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND
PROPAGATE EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PLUME OF EXTREMELY WARM AIR IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL PERSIST SATURDAY, AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE
TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO FORM OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND TO
STREAM OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE
CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED RAPIDLY BEFORE REACHING THE KANSAS BORDER.
AN AREA OF DRYING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN UTAH AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
LATER TONIGHT, AND CIRRUS PRODUCTION OVER THE ROCKIES IS LIKELY TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT, AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WARM AIR MASS COVERING KANSAS. IF
THE WIND IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S. HOWEVER, THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THAT THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
VERY DRY AIR AND A DIURNAL RANGE OF NEAR 45 DEGREES, RESULTING IN
LOWS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

THE BEST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL BE NORTH OF KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, AND SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
H8 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO VALUES OBSERVED TODAY.
CONTINUED LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE H8 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 18C. A FEW RECORD HIGHS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FEW MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD DIGITAL FORECAST
DATABASE ON THIS SHIFT. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
RESPECT TO HE DRIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WITH MORNING LOWS BY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE MORNING
SUNDAY, EFFECTIVELY KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING ON ACTUAL TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY,
A LARGE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO HOW WARM IT WILL
GET AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SYRACUSE, TO ELKHART AND LIBERAL
AREAS. LOW TO MID 60S ARE PLAUSIBLE IF THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWER TO
PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES, HOWEVER THE MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE 70S OF
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE UNLIKELY EVEN IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AS WINDS
SUBSIDE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING APPEARS FAVORABLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CONSENSUS OF MOS WAS USED OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MODEL OUTPUT FOR
COLDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES FROM DODGE CITY TO HAYS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WESTWARD.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. A RAPID RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THE
SEASON IS EXPECTED BEYOND MONDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AND THICKNESSES INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WITH
BASES AOA250 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY, AND SKIES IN WESTERN KANSAS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MONTANA WILL PROGRESS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY NOON SATURDAY, AND AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, VEERING TO THE WEST SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  72  35  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  31  72  32  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  75  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  74  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  32  69  30  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  33  70  35  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUTHI


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