000
FXUS63 KDDC 050740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42