Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010658
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
158 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WINDS IN 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO NEAR 30 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING THE MIXING DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL. USING THE NAM AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 50 TO NEAR 60.

TONIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP THE LOWER
LEVEL MIXED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS. BASED
ON THESE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN
WHAT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER THAN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z COUNTERPART, AND MOST
OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT COULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
ALSO TO BLEND IN WITH THE DAYS 4-7 SOLUTION. THE BEST PLACE FOR THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE WEST,
LOCATIONS MAY BE SHORT CHANGED ON PRECIP IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES AND THERE
IS TOO MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM ALONG WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

BEYOND MONDAY, WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER
AIR MASS TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60. AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WILL SEE CONTINUED MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE SUPERBLEND
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN A WEEK FROM NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE LOCATION IS FORECAST
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, SO THE LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN
TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WESTERN KANSAS AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY AT OR ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  43  70  52 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  62  45  75  50 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  68  47  76  49 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  63  42  73  50 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  58  42  71  52 /   0   0  10  30
P28  56  43  67  53 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT



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