Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 042049
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

A pronounced synoptic scale ridge was entering across the Rockies
today, yielding widespread clear skies. This pattern will continue
through the Short Term period (through Thursday "Day" period). Any
deep tropospheric westerly momentum across the Rockies will hold off
until after the Short Term period, which means a continuation of
fairly light winds given the absense of a leeside trough. Lower
tropospheric temperatures will slowly rise with the approach of the
upper level ridge, with highs Thursday in the 81 to 85F range for
just about the entire west central, southwest, and south central
Kansas region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Main interest in the Long Term continues to be the upcoming weekend
storm system. Latest indications today, that have changed since
yesterday, are that the overall synoptic pattern will be a bit
faster evolving, thanks largely in part to a stronger than
previously progged upstream kicker diving down from British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest late in the weekend. What this basically
means is that there will likely only be one day with a meaningful
severe convective risk: Sunday.

A dryline/front intersection will be in play on Saturday, but all
indications right now are that this will occur up in northwest
Kansas. A lead shortwave disturbance rotating around the larger
scale upper gyre will promote enhanced deep tropospheric lift north
and west of the southwest Kansas region on Saturday/Saturday
evening. Per collaboration with some neighboring WFOs, we tempered
POPs somewhat south of the Arkansas River on Saturday evening given
the weaker forcing expected along the dryline to support more than
just isolated or widely scattered convection. We will maintain 40
POPs up across portions of west central and central Kansas, though.
Severe weather risk looks fairly low Saturday evening, even if
something does pop along the dryline, as moisture will be quite
limited with dewpoints in the late afternoon/early evening only in
the upper 40s to lower 50s along the dryline (yielding Surface-based
CAPE around 1000 J/kg).

Deeper moisture should be in play Sunday, though, with another day
of moisture flux out of the gulf region. We should see dewpoints in
the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s east of the dryline on Sunday.
Also, a dryline-front intersection Sunday should be farther south,
perhaps into the southwest Kansas region. The dryline, and
especially the dryline-front intersection, would be initiation
points for surface-based severe convection with SBCAPE late
afternoon around 2000 J/kg or so based on the increased moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures aloft. It is still unclear how the low
level kinematics will shake out, since the flow fields are often
influenced by small scale nuances that are extremely difficult for
numerical prediction to pick up on until we get much closer to the
day of the event, so it is too early to tell how significant of a
tornado risk there will be Sunday late day/evening. It is something
we will be watching closely, though, given the favorable
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Quiet aviation weather is forecast through the period as a large
scale high pressure ridge persists. Winds from the north today at 11
to 14 knots will weaken after sunset to less than 10 knots. Winds on
Thursday will switch around to the south as the high pressure center
slowly moves east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  84  51  85 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  47  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid


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