000
FXUS63 KDDC 110800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A strong upper level disturbance will approach western Kansas on
Tuesday as low level cyclogenesis occurs over northern Kansas. This
system is too far  north to being substantial precipitation to
western Kansas. However, some light rain is possible mainly for
areas north of Garden City and Jetmore, and particularly along
Interstate 70 by mid to late afternoon Tuesday. As the surface low
progresses eastward into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri
in the afternoon, surface winds will increase on the back side of
the low. Therefore, a wind advisory has been issued for all of
central and southwest Kansas starting at noon.

Despite the very mild temperatures at 850mb tonight, dewpoints
are very low and winds will be 10 kts or less, which will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 40s in most places. However,
any locations where low level decoupling does not occur could
experience warmer lows in the mid to high 40s. On the other hand,
if winds briefly drop off to 5 kts, temperatures could spike down
several degrees in only a few minutes into the high 30s. Temperatures
will warm quickly on Tuesday after an initial weak cold front sweeps
across eastern Colorado and through western Kansas. Much stronger
cold advection will begin by early afternoon along interstate 70
with falling temperatures. Farther southeast at Pratt and Medicine
Lodge, temperatures will max out around 2-3 pm before quickly
falling towards 5-6 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave breaking
away from a larger scale trough Wednesday as it digs southeast
across the Rockies, and developing into a closed off upper level
low across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a general westerly
flow aloft will prevail across the Western High Plains through the
end of the week. This will result in dry conditions persisting
across western Kansas through Thursday night with insufficient
low/mid level moisture present. The closed off upper level low in
the Desert Southwest is then expected to open up and push eastward
into the South Plains early Friday bringing marginal precip
chances to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles based on the
projected track of the shortwave. Cannot rule out a slight chance
for light rain across extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas Friday as the upper level system skirts
across our southern fringe.

Much cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of a departing cold front. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures dropping well below 0C across
central and western Kansas initially Tuesday night. A slight
rebound to around 0C across central Kansas to near 5C along the
Colorado border is expected Wednesday afternoon due to some
northwesterly downsloping developing. Expect highs up into the
upper 40s(F) to possibly the lower to mid 50s(F) under decreasing
cloud cover. A quick bounce back to warmer temperatures will occur
Thursday as the arctic high dips further south across Texas while
lee side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will
quickly return a southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas
pushing H85 temperatures up into the lower to mid Teens(C) across
central and western Kansas. Highs will easily reach the 60s(F)
Thursday afternoon with near 70F not out of the question in some
locations. Another cold front is projected to push through western
Kansas early Friday once again dropping temperatures across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

South to southwest winds overnight will gradually veer around to the
west-northwest by mid-morning. Winds will increase to around 20 to
25 knots sustained by midday and continue to ramp up to 28 to 32
knots sustained late afternoon from the north-northwest as a strong
cold front moves in. A few wind gusts will be around 45 knots or
higher between 21z Tuesday and 03z Wednesday with some MVFR ceilings
also moving in during this time. Up at HYS, light snow will likely
bring the flight category down to IFR for a few hours during the
early to mid evening hours. Snow accumulations are expected to be
minimal at less than an inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  27  51  26 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  56  25  50  24 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  63  27  48  28 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  64  26  50  25 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  55  27  50  24 /  40  50   0   0
P28  62  30  52  28 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ this afternoon to 11
PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.

WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid