Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
157 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Early this afternoon, northwest flow aloft was occurring across
western Kansas. There was a jet streak within this flow aloft
extending from South Dakota into northern Missouri, and this
perturbation was pushing southeast. A weak frontal push at the
surface could be identified in the observations at 18z, and GOES-16
visible satellite confirmed growing cumulus field along this
boundary across southwest Nebraska. At 1830z, a small severe storm
had developed in the Holdrege area, which was moving almost due
south. For late today and tonight, will be carrying 20-30 POPs up
along I-70 as this activity is expected to continue to expand a
little bit in coverage where cumulus was forming west of this
initial storm toward Holyoke, CO (and points southwest from there to
the Palmer Divide). There is not the upper support farther west to
warrant a prolonged cluster of severe convection. Numerous runs of
the HRRR so far today show a general lackluster performance of
convection from this region as it moves southeast through the late
afternoon and by evening, dissolve convection all together just
about everywhere by sunset.

Also watching a mesoscale area of surface convergence across far
southwest KS, but again the short-term convective allowing models
(CAMs) just do not suggest much in the way of sustainability of any
convection down in that area. Nevertheless, will maintain some 15-20
POPs across the rest of southwest KS as any little zone of
convergence could initiate a storm that grows into something fairly
strong, if not borderline severe, in the area south of the Arkansas
River. Any longer lived storms up north could produce up to ping
pong or even golfball size hail before weakening.

Going into Tuesday, the flow pattern changes to more of a west-
northwest pattern, but the surface flow pattern will be radically
different as a substantial leeside trough takes shape. The increased
pressure gradient will lead to 20 to 30 mph winds developing by late
morning and continuing into the afternoon. Lee trough convergence
will strengthen, and this will be the area of focus for any late day
convection. This convergence zone will likely extend from far
northeast Colorado down to northeastern New Mexico. The upper flow
pattern favors more aggressive elevated mixed layer
development/capping, so lee trough convection may have a difficult
time becoming sustained the farther south one goes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The long term forecast through this weekend continues to look
convectively active, with opportunities for thunderstorms at
least somewhere in SW KS each day.

Tuesday...Windy and warmer. Lee cyclogenesis of 990 mb in western
Nebraska will induce strong south winds Tuesday afternoon,
averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph at times. Coordinated
with surrounding offices to increase wind/wind gust grids over the
superblend starting point. Pressure gradient near 10 mb across SW
KS will support plenty of wind for a bad hair day warning. Primary
threat for severe weather looks to be in Nebraska, but some
thunderstorms will trail southward along the dryline, where GFS
progs CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and healthy EHI. Pop grids favor
the northern zones by Tuesday evening, where some supercells
appear likely. Noticeably warmer, back to normal, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday...Focus for severe weather will be directed eastward, as
the lee trough/dryline advances to the eastern zones. By Wednesday
evening, storm coverage favors the NE 1/2 of the CWA, where 00z
GFS/ECMWF forecast an environment favorable for severe
convection. Reference Day 3 SPC convective outlook. Temperatures
continue to climb, well into the 90s, with the hottest locales
west of the dryline approaching 100.

Thursday...Still expecting more thunderstorms, favoring the
eastern half of SW KS. ECMWF forecasts storm initiation along the
dryline near the eastern zones in the afternoon, supported by
strong instability. In fact, 00z ECMWF forecasts a large MCS
across central and eastern Kansas Thursday evening, probably
backbuilding into the SE zones near Medicine Lodge. Large hail and
flooding rains are possible.

An MCS outflow-aided cold front passage is expected Thursday night
and Friday morning, ushering in a NE wind and milder temperatures
in the 80s. This should finally force convection to our south into
Oklahoma Friday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Main challenge will be whether or not thunderstorms will affect
any of the terminals. If any terminals will be affected, it
appears that HYS would be the only one, as storms across far
southwest Nebraska roll southeast late this afternoon into early
this evening. The consensus among the models, though, is that the
convective activity should be widely scattered in nature. For the
time, we will leave HYS convection free, however this would need
to be amended to include thunder as confidence increases.
Otherwise, light winds at 6 knots or less will prevail through
tonight. A strong leeside trough on Tuesday will result in
stronger south winds.


DDC  82  63  89  70 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  81  62  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  83  62  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  83  64  91  69 /  10  20  10  10
HYS  82  61  88  70 /  20  20  10  20
P28  85  64  89  71 /  10  20  10  10




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.