Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  58 /  80  20  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  53 /  80  20  30  30
EHA  74  53  78  52 /  80  10  10  10
LBL  68  57  79  55 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  64  59  75  58 /  80  30  30  30
P28  66  62  76  61 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON


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