136
FXUS63 KDDC 131759
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through Tuesday.

- Warming trend expected through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level trough of low pressure
shifting east through the Central Plains while ridging aloft builds
in across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, high pressure is
drifting east through the Central Plains.

Tranquil conditions are likely early in the period as the SREF
indicates ridging aloft, already building in across the Desert
Southwest, expanding farther northeast into the Western High Plains
today into Monday. Despite sufficient moisture/instability present,
a weak/disorganized flow aloft and lack of any other triggering
mechanism will allow relatively dry conditions to persist through
Monday night. Temperatures will rebound today as departing surface
high pressure gives way to southerlies across western Kansas by
early afternoon, helping push H85 temperatures back up around 20C in
central Kansas to near 25C along the Colorado line. Under increased
sunshine, look for afternoon highs well up into the 80s(F) to near
90F as suggested by the HREF painting a widespread 70-90% probability
of temperatures exceeding 85F today. With prevailing southerlies
persisting into Monday, a warming trend will see widespread afternoon
highs in the 90s(F).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

South winds at 6-10 kts will persist through tonight as a weak
surface trough stays in the lee of the Rockies. South winds
will increase a little toward the end of the period as the
trough deepens. VFR conditions can be expected.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch