000
FXUS63 KDDC 292152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS  OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING FROM
THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6 HOURLY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB
OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT