Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

For today, some early morning stratus, as dewpoints climb, will burn
off later this morning. An upper level shortwave trough will lift
northeastward across western Kansas during the afternoon with some
early morning thunderstorms generally south and east of Dodge City
dissipating, then reforming with daytime heating. The afternoon
storms will be mainly east of Dodge City in weak PVA region with the
shortwave trough. Mid level winds of around 25-30kt, jet winds
around 70kt, and CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg, will allow
storms to become marginally severe. Hail from dime to quarter is
possible with damaging winds of 50 to 65 mph. South to southwest
winds will increase ahead of a surface trough moving into far
western Kansas, with 25 to 35 mph winds common. Highs today will
be warm with mid 90s.

For tonight, thunderstorms some marginally severe, will continue
mainly east of Dodge City for a few hours in the early evening.
Other waves will move from the southwest into western Kansas
overnight with a continued small chance for more thunderstorms.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s west of Dodge City to the
low to mid 70s across parts of south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

For Wednesday into next Monday, several upper level waves will
continue to push across the Central Plains with a continued chance
for more showers and thunderstorms.

Highs cool into the low to mid 80s with a cold front on Wednesday
with storms surrounding this frontal boundary. Ahead of the front in
parts of south central Kansas highs still warm to around 90. Then
for Thursday, highs will be cooler in the upper 70s to around 80 as
colder high pressure builds down into western Kansas. By Friday, a
slow warming trend begins as upper level heights begin to rise,
however another shortwave will bring another chance for more
thunderstorms. Highs Friday warm to the lower to mid 80s. As this
next upper trough lifts more north into the Northern Plains on
Saturday into Monday, high temps warm back into the mid to upper 80s
with decreasing storm chances. Overnight lows will stay mainly in
the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR expected through 12z Wed. SW winds will increase rapidly after
sunrise once mixing commences, averaging 20-30 kts. Winds will
weaken after 18z, as pressure gradient relaxes and cold front
approaches from the north. Isolated -TSRA expected along the
dryline by 21z. Coverage will be limited, and expect most activity
to remain east of the airports, so kept mention out of the 12z
TAFs. Cold front expected to bring a shift to NE winds at GCK/HYS
by 06z Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69  87  61 /  10  20  30  40
GCK  94  65  83  59 /  10  20  30  40
EHA  93  64  83  59 /  10  10  30  50
LBL  95  67  87  60 /  10  10  30  50
HYS  94  68  82  59 /  20  20  40  30
P28  93  73  91  65 /  30  30  30  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner



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