Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12-15 MPH TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL GO THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 1 PM, THEN GARDEN CITY BY 3 TO 4 PM, THEN
DODGE CITY BY 6 TO 7 PM. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST, WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS FROM 97 TO AROUND 100 TODAY WITH THE WARMEST
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO THICKEN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. IF CLOUDS GET TOO THICK, IT
MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING.

CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP AFTER MAX
HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF GARDEN AND DODGE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
HOWEVER WITH HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS, AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND
1700 J/KG, SOME WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 50 TO 70 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, AND THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. WILL KEEP A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF DODGE CITY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. COOLER AND MOIST
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SPC HAS WESTERN KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE SOUTH
OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A MARGINAL
RISK ELSEWHERE. WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A COOL AIRMASS, CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE SEVERE DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE LOWERED CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S PER OTHER MODELS AND SUPERBLEND OUTPUT.

FOR FRIDAY, MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. COOL AND
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
MORE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. HIGHS AGAIN LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR SATURDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY, INTO NEXT TUESDAY, WARMER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF DODGE CITY. INCREASING STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
WESTERLIES PUSH A TROUGH LINE OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WARM FROM AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY, AND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY NOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  88  65 /  20  10  40  40
GCK  98  70  88  65 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  99  69  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
LBL 100  71  89  66 /  20  20  40  40
HYS  97  69  86  64 /  10  10  40  40
P28 102  72  90  67 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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