Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

South to southeast winds will continue to increase through this
afternoon, in response to lee trough deepening along I-25 in
Colorado. Gusts near 35 mph are expected, with scattered cirrus.
Most locations will end up within a few degrees of 70 this
afternoon.

Tonight...Windy and much milder than last night. An impressive
low level jet is forecast tonight, with 12z NAM forecasting 850 mb
winds as high as 60-65 kts. As such, winds will remain quite
elevated and gusty overnight, with SE winds continuing to gust
30-35 mph all night. With this mixing, temperatures will struggle
to fall much below 50 at many locations through Monday morning.

Monday...Much warmer. In fact, Monday promises to be the warmest
day of the week. After gusty SW winds for a couple hours after
sunrise, winds will diminish rapidly during the midday hours as
the surface pressure gradient collapses. All model guidance places
a 990-992 mb surface low near Baca county, Colorado by 7 pm, and
expect winds to become SEly in response through Monday afternoon.
Cirrus increasing from the west late in the day. All zones dry.
Went several degrees above MOS guidance, with afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 80s. A delightful spring afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A drier pattern will continue Monday as medium range models indicate
a zonal flow aloft setting up across the Western High Plains in wake
of a departing upper level ridge. Although the flow aloft is expected
to intensify somewhat, a lack of low/mid level moisture/instability
will hinder precip chances through Monday night. Precip chances finally
return late Tuesday as an upper level trough dips southeast across the
Rockies into the Western High Plains setting up an increasingly difluent
southwest flow aloft while sending an attendant frontal boundary into
western Kansas. Although instability is expected to remain limited based
on GFS/ECMWF model soundings, enough forcing associated with the boundary,
increasing mid/upper level moisture, and more favorable dynamic support
aloft will increase the potential for shower development across portions
of southwest and central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Precip chances will dwindle going into early to mid day Wednesday
as the upper level shortwave kicks off to the east out of the Central
Plains.

An ongoing warming trend will continue into Monday despite a weak cold
front projected to push into extreme western Kansas by mid to late
afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the 80s(F) across southwest
and portions of central Kansas Monday afternoon. Cooler air will filter
into the high plains Tuesday in wake of a frontal passage resulting
in high temperatures falling closer to what is expected for this time
of the season. The cooling trend will persist through mid week as much
cooler air surges southward into western Kansas Wednesday, dropping
high temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR with only some scattered cirrus. Strong south winds this
afternoon with gusts near 30 kts. Winds will remain elevated and
gusty tonight, in response to a strong low level jet with 850 mb
winds as high as 60 kts. Widespread low level wind shear expected
at all airports during the 03z-12z Mon timeframe. SW winds will be
strong and gusty for a few hours after sunrise Monday, followed
by rapidly weakening winds midday Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  71  50  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  49  80  51 /   0   0   0  10
P28  70  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner



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