Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 050510
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough digging
southeast across the Central and Southern Rockies. Meanwhile,
upper level ridging is moving ashore off the Pacific into the
Intermountain West. Near the surface, a large area of high
pressure continues to dominate across the Western High Plains.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016
Increasing clouds expected this afternoon through tonight, as
strong shortwave approaches SW KS. With the added cloud cover, low
temperatures Friday morning will be several degrees milder than
those observed this morning. Lift ahead of this feature is quite
strong by sunrise Friday, with overcast mid layer clouds expected.
Moisture supply is very limited, however, so only expecting virga
or flurries as this system passes. The best opportunity for light
accumulations of snow will be confined to WFO Goodland`s CWA.
A mostly cloudy sky will persist much of Friday as the shortwave
passes SW KS, with surface winds backing to N/NW at 10-20 mph
through the afternoon. Associated weak cold advection will hold
high temperatures Friday afternoon near Thursday`s readings, with
again northern zones with the deepest snowpack struggling to get
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
Entire long term forecast is dry for SW KS. In fact, models are
forecasting an extended period of very quiet weather that will
continue through at least Saturday February 13th.
Saturday...The pick day of the weekend. High pressure quickly
rebounds, allowing for moderating afternoon temperatures. Weak
lee troughing will promote gentle SW downslope, sending the
southern 1/2 of the CWA into the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile,
melting snow will hold the northern zones to near 40.
Sunday...Temperature forecast becomes a little trickier, as a cold
arctic airmass sweeps into the northern plains. Clearly, the brunt
of this arctic air will bypass SW KS, missing us to the NE. Still,
models are in disagreement on how much cold air sloshes into SW KS
on Sunday. 12z GFS drops 850 mb temps from near 6C Saturday, to
near -3C on Sunday. 12z NAM a bit colder, with an 850 temp of -4C
on Sunday. 12z ECMWF is now notably colder than its runs
yesterday. Gusty NW winds of 20-30 mph will have a downslope
component helping to offset some cold air advection, but the wind
will also be coming off the refrigerated snowpack of NW KS. Wanted
to go colder in the max temps grids Sunday, but neither MOS
guidance or the neighbor`s grids supported doing so. Forecasted
40s for now, but there is some potential for a busted temperature
forecast on Sunday.
Monday...Flow becomes highly amplified across North America, with
a 585 dm upper ridge over Nevada, and a 521 upper low over
Michigan. Very strong but dry NW flow will persist over SW KS,
with afternoon NW winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts.
Temperatures will remain near normal.
Tuesday through Thursday...Heights gradually rise over SW KS, as
flow deamplifies, SW US ridge expands onto the plains, and
downslope develops. Gorgeous weather will result. Most of the snow
will have been melted, allowing 50s to return. with 60s across the
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday
afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable through late
Friday morning as a broad surface high slowly edges eastward
across the Western High Plains. An extremely weak frontal boundary
will push through western Kansas early Friday afternoon turning
winds northwesterly 5 to 15kt.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 20 42 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 17 38 15 46 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 22 43 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 20 45 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 16 35 17 39 / 0 0 0 0
P28 23 48 24 54 / 0 0 0 0