Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131211
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A cold front will move across the forecast area this morning. This
front will eventually stall out near or just south of the Oklahoma
border and head up northeastward into eastern Kansas. The forecast
concern today was for temperatures. A large temperature gradient
is expected across the FA. Downslope southwesterly winds will warm
up south-central Kansas (Barber county), where highs in the 80s
are expected. To the west and northwest, there is lower confidence
due to lingering upslope stratus cloud cover. Have the highest
confidence of the coolest readings across the northeastern zones
where highs may struggle to get above the lower 60s. For the rest
of the FA, mainly 60s with a few 70s across the far southwestern
zones is currently forecast. Mainly used input from the NMMB and
ARW models for these temps. The 12Z NAM is cooler and the hourly
HRRR`s are trending cooler but not cool enough as forecast.
Otherwise, for pops, if there were to be any precipitation
(convection), it will hold off until tomorrow morning where waa
and lift along/near the front may spark off some showers and
thunderstorms. The highest probabilities are along and east of
Highway 283. Severe weather looks fairly unlikely with this
activity.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

For Saturday, a front will slam southward through the day with a
strong several hour isallobaric response. The net result is strong
northerly winds of 25-30 kt for a few hours. Any convection
associated with the front looks to be mainly SE of the forecast
area. Still, cannot rule out storms across the southeastern zones
and the loaded fb pops look reasonable for now. There could be
some marginal severe Saturday evening, however, the undercutting
nature of the front along with low level flow that is parallel to
mean cloud wind will favor quick upscale growth, which will
certainly limit the larger hail size potential. A few downbursts
are more likely.

Beyond this, high pressure builds in Sunday morning. Will have to
watch out for frost potential as some guidance is coming in with
lows in the mid 30s across the western zones. Sunday should be
pleasant with widespread lower 60s and significantly less strong
wind magnitudes.

Looking to next week, the weather pattern is rather tranquil with
weak flow aloft and weak lee troughing at the sfc. Temperatures
will moderate back into the 70s through the middle portion of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Cold front moving into the region this morning, with MVFR/IFR
stratus immediately behind the boundary. A narrow lower layer of
LIFR and reduced vsby to around 1/2SM can be expected at the
leading edge of the stratus. The boundary is expected to stall
over the area today, before warm advection showers and
thunderstorms develop later tonight, mainly after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  57  80  39 /   0  30  30  20
GCK  66  53  75  36 /   0  20  10   0
EHA  73  55  79  36 /   0  20   0   0
LBL  71  59  82  37 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  63  53  72  40 /   0  30  30  10
P28  77  62  81  45 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell



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