000
FXUS63 KDDC 160655
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A nice and tranquil weather day is expected today. Aloft, a dry
northwest flow will continue. At the sfc, weak lee troughing will
prevail. The net result is mainly clear skies and highs in the
lower to mid 70s. With the breezy winds and warm temperatures, the
fire weather hazard will be elevated for portions of the forecast
area. Still, only humidities dropping down to 20-25% will
preclude from Red Flag Warning at this time. For tonight, the
tranquil and dry weather continues. Lows in the 40s still looks on
track with the most recent guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The pattern above more-or-less remains unchanged for Tuesday.
Winds may be slightly weaker and highs look to be slightly warmer.
Fire weather doesn`t appear to be elevated as higher dewpoints
will advect in with the continued southerly winds/lee troughing.
For Wednesday, SW KS ends up in split aloft and a weak high at
the surface. Highs will continue to increase a few degrees with
values flirting around the 80F mark. The warm and tranquil weather
prevails Thursday and Friday. The 00Z EC shows a weather system
moving across the state with an associated fropa and the threat
for showers/thunderstorms. Most of the BL moisture in the model is
SE for the forecast area, so not expecting any significant rains
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Lee troughing will prevail
through the period. As such, winds will be S/SW and increase by
late morning 12-18 kt. Winds will decrease down to 8-12 kt by
tonight and be out of the south.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  73  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  34  74  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  39  74  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  73  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  74  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden