


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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147 FXUS63 KDDC 272043 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 343 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook of Marginal Risk for our southeastern counties mainly along the Oklahoma line for slow- moving thunderstorm potential (late this afternoon/evening). - Saturday and Sunday hottest days of the 7-day period with widespread mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 100 degrees. - Next cold front will bring in higher rainfall chances Sunday Night into Monday, but severe weather risk is quite small given poor wind shear environment. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Surface toughing near the less of the Colorado Rockies is forecast to spread eastward, morphing into more of a a broad surface trough across the Central High Plains (KS/CO state line) by midday Saturday. This tough will be the impetus for higher terrain thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and perhaps linger into far western Kansas counties overnight, but the probability for thunderstorms will be less than 10% spatially. Additionally the area is only on a general thunderstorm outlook this afternoon and the odds of severe weather are less than 5%. Efficient rain producing thunderstorms however in the southeast this evening cannot be ruled out where the excessive rainfall outlook is in the marginal category east of a Coldwater to Pratt line. The warmest temperatures of the week will be the period through the weekend. Highs in this timeframe will be in the mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s. Areas west of a Hays to Garden and Johnson line will fall into the moderate category Saturday afternoon (as its the warmest day) which can impact some industries and health systems. This keeps out heat risk at the level 1 out of 4, meaning, the heat will impact the folks who are most sensitive to heat, specifically those without adequate cooling or hydration. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Light south winds generally around or less than 12 knots are anticipated through this set of TAFs. Although isolated (less than 10% coverage) thunderstorms might occur later this evening (after 3z) the areal extend is not high enough to consider including in any of theses terminals forecasts. VFR conditions anticipated though least 3z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell