Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
614 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Short term concern is convection potential for today. The WRF-ARW
and NMMB models shows late afternoon and evening convection
developing across the western counties and then spreading east and
weakening through the evening. Bulk shear supports organized
convection, however, instability is quite weak with dewpoints only
running in the lower to mid 40s by this afternoon. Think the main
threat is winds as models hint at line segment growth. Some hail
potential is there as well. 50-60 mph winds, and 1-2" hail would
be the threats. 2" hail would be pushing it. Tornado potential is
extremely low... low level directional shear is impressive,
however, again, with marginal dewpoints, LCL`s will be quite high
and forecast soundings show a mixed profile below this. Anyway, locations
that gets under a storm could see a couple of tenths of rain. It will,
of course, be spotty in nature, given the nature of the storms and
marginal BL moisture. Otherwise, highs today will peak around 60 NE
to the lower 70s SW. Friday morning lows will range from the upper
30s NW to mid 40s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Attention was spent mainly to the weekend. A strong trof approaches
the region from the SW. Considerable moisture advection is associated
with this feature and QPF from both the GFS and EC are impressive.
1-2" area wide is possible by the time the storm exits the forecast
district. A growing concern is if low level temperatures will be cold
enough for snow. Models are trending colder, particularly across the
western zones. Accumulating snowfall is not out of the question and
solid advisory amounts (2-5") possible. Will have to watch out near
the CO border, where warning amounts (6+") is indicated by some of
the more aggressive models. The ground is fairly warm. Something to
watch, but would not be surprised if a winter weather advisory was
needed at some point in the near future. Regardless of how this snow
pans out, the area will see beneficial precipitation. Otherwise, will
have to watch out for frost/freeze headlines Sunday morning. Those
areas that see the most accumulating snow could see colder temperatures
than currently forecast. Something to watch as there is high uncertainty
on the snowfall amounts and the related temperatures impacts down the
forecast road.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Southeasterly winds will develop early this morning and then
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by the early afternoon as an
area of low pressure at the surface deepens and moves slowly east
across the panhandle of Oklahoma. These southeasterly winds will
become more northerly early tonight as the surface low moves south
of the area. VFR conditions today will give way to thickening and
lowering ceilings early tonight as moisture begins to improve in
the 1500 to 3000 ft AGL level north of the warm front. Model
sounding trends continue to favor lowering ceilings after midnight
with IFR conditions being possible...mainly in the DDC and HYS


DDC  64  43  66  38 /  40  40  20  80
GCK  65  41  64  35 /  40  50  30  80
EHA  72  41  64  34 /  10  10  30  80
LBL  73  42  67  38 /  20  20  20  80
HYS  59  43  60  38 /  70  70  20  70
P28  64  47  69  44 /  50  50  10  70


Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031.



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.