475
FXUS63 KDDC 251103
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Based on radar and satellite trends, and using various CAM
solutions as guidance, increased shower coverage closer to 30%
(scattered) for most zones through most of today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Persistent mid level altostratus clouds continue this morning
across much of SW KS, beneath continued NW flow aloft. While
moisture and instability are weak, embedded vorticity maxima in
the NW flow keeps the occasional shower or thunderstorm possible,
as seen by the recent convective development near Goodland this
hour. HRRR suggests NW KS activity will spread into our northern
counties through sunrise, with additional storms in far SW KS
(near Elkhart) by 4 am or so. Latest HRRR runs indicate rain
showers persisting NE of Dodge City into at least the early
afternoon hours. Really don`t have a good feel where showers and
thunderstorms are more likely versus less likely, so just
broadbrushed slight chance pops everywhere through today. With
very limited instability, opted to include showers and only
isolated thunder in the grids. Certainly, no severe weather is
expected. Best chance of a stronger storm will be across the far
west near the CO/KS border this evening, where NAM increases CAPE
to a modest 1000 J/kg. Tweaked sky grids upward with model
forecast soundings and short term models all showing the mid layer
cloud decks near 7-9k ft persisting. Strong (for late June)
surface high (1028 mb) over central Nebraska at sunrise will
translate SE to near Kansas City by 7 pm. While modest southerly
return flow will begin today, the general cool/dry/stable boundary
layer associated with this anticyclone will be in control for one
more day. Winds will back more SEly by late in the day. With
upslope components, and continued thick mid clouds, and 850 mb
temps going virtually nowhere from yesterday, expect comfortable
high temperatures again today, within a few degrees of 80.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast through
tonight, with coverage favoring the SW counties. Cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Typical early summer weather will prevail this week, with
temperatures returning to seasonably hot levels and daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Convection is possible somewhere in
SW KS each and every day, as shown by 00z MEX guidance, with pops
at or above climatology every day through July 1st.

Monday...the warming trend begins, as the Desert SW upper high
begins to weaken. Under continued NW flow aloft, temperatures still
below normal, in the mid 80s. Instability begins to return Monday
afternoon, with 0z NAM/GFS both increasing CAPE into the 1500
J/kg range. Model blended pops of 20-30% are justified, highest
during peak heating.

Tuesday...Subtropical upper high over the Desert SW weakens
further, retreating westward out into the Pacific. This synoptic
reorientation will force more zonal flow across the central
plains, which in turn will sharpen lee cyclogenesis/troughing and
allow the dryline to establish. Strong south winds expected
Tuesday, gusting easily 30-40 mph. GFS places dryline in the
vicinity of the CO/KS border at peak heating, with thunderstorms
propogating into SW KS Tuesday evening. With CAPE well in excess
of 2000 J/kg and improved bulk shear, some storms will likely be
severe with hail and/or wind potential. Pop grids favor the NW
zones Tuesday evening, following warmer highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s (back to late June normals).

Wednesday...Thunderstorm prospects shift toward the eastern zones,
as flow aloft becomes W/SW and dryline makes further progress
eastward. Some storms east of US 283 may be severe again
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Much hotter, with all locations
well into the 90s. Hottest locales in far SW KS behind the dryline
will make a run for 100.

Thursday through Saturday...ECMWF shows flow aloft trending NWly
again, keeping daily thunderstorm chances alive each day, at least
somewhere in SW KS. GFS shows instability will remain plentiful,
and storm intensity and coverage will depend on dryline placement
and weak disturbances aloft to help with forcing. After another
hot day Thursday in the 90s, temperatures are expected to moderate
back closer to normal with a cold frontal passage and NE winds on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Scattered rain showers and a persistent mid layer overcast near
7k ft AGL expected to prevail Sunday. Scattered rain showers have
already developed as of 6 am from near HYS to near Scott City.
HRRR model solutions suggest scattered showers will continue into
the early afternoon hours, tracking to the southeast. Instability
is very limited, as such expect any thunder to be isolated.
Included VCSH/VCTS in the TAFs where appropriate. Expecting no
severe weather. After 15z, south winds increase modestly, with a
few gusts to near 20 kts. Winds at HYS will remain more easterly.
All models show cigs lowering further after 00z Mon, perhaps down
to high end MVFR from GCK to LBL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  62  84  62 /  30  20  20  30
GCK  77  58  84  61 /  30  30  20  30
EHA  74  60  84  62 /  40  40  20  30
LBL  76  62  83  65 /  40  40  20  30
HYS  76  59  82  61 /  40  30  20  20
P28  83  62  85  64 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner