000
FXUS63 KDDC 061929
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
129 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

...Updated short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

At 12z Friday a -43c 500mb low was located over southwest
Saskatchewan with an upper level trough extended south of this
upper low along the spine of the Rockies into New Mexico. Across
the west central high plains 40meter 12hour height falls were
reported ahead of this upper wave. Another upper level trough
extended west/southwest of this upper low and stretched across the
Pacific Northwest. 850mb temperatures this morning ranged from
-16c at Amarillo and Dodge City to -22c at North Platte. A surface
to 850mb ridge axis was located from western Nebraska into
southwest Kansas with light and variable winds observed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

The upper level trough located across Colorado earlier this
morning will move east across Kansas through the early evening
hours. As this system passes the skies will clear from west to
east as subsidence develops behind this upper wave. A ridge of
high pressure at the surface will move slowly cross western Kansas
overnight and based on the location of the surface ridge axis at
12z Saturday will continue to favor the coldest early morning
temperatures in north central Kansas. Wind speeds will not be
strong overnight, however even with these light winds the wind
chills early Saturday are still anticipated to fall back into the
10 to 20 degree below zero range. The coldest wind chills will be
across west central and north central Kansas so the current wind
chill advisory still looks on track.

On Saturday the area of high pressure at the surface will move
east and a south/southeast flow will develop during the day across
western Kansas. Warm air advection and isentropic lift will be
also developing during the day as moisture improves in the 850 to
700mb layer. The NAM model soundings indicating the depth of the
low level moist layer will approach 1000 meters deep by 21z
Saturday so as clouds thicken and lower there will be chance for
light snow or flurries by late day. A brief period of afternoon
flurries/light snow will be possible earlier in the afternoon near
the Colorado border, however by late day the better isentropic
lift and moisture advection will be shifting further east. Based
on the increasing clouds and 900mb temperature trends from the NAM
and GFS will stay close to the previous forecast with highs on
Saturday climbing only into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Saturday evening/Sunday:

The 12Z suite of models continue the trend of lower snowfall potential
across the region for Saturday evening into Sunday. These solutions
are related to the passage of a synoptic trof with low level warm
air advection north to northeast of an 850 hPa trof/low as well as 280-290
Kelvin isentropic lift. The low level pressure perturbation is forecast
to open with time, so the overall intensity pattern is far much less
developed than suggested yesterday. As a result, have made spatiotemporal
adjustments to precipitation probabilities and generally gone with lower
values. Snow could linger Sunday afternoon along I70 as this area will
be influenced by warm air advection and isentropic lift longer. As far
as snow amounts, less concerned now with a snow advisory event as dry
air cuts down on precipitation/aggregation efficiency.

Monday and beyond:

A reinforcing surge of cold air is expected Monday with a downward tick
in temperatures. Beyond that, dry northwesterly flow aloft will continue
through midweek. Temperatures will moderate through this period, with
a good chance of above freezing temperatures by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

An surface ridge axis will move across western Kansas over the
next 24hours. This will result in a light northeast wind at 10kts
or less gradually veering to the southeast overnight. Skies will
gradually clear from west to east this afternoon as subsidence
develops behind an upper level disturbance as it crosses the
central high plains. Only high clouds expected during the
overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   0  16  10  22 /   0  30  20  10
GCK  -2  13   9  19 /   0  30  10  10
EHA   3  17  10  22 /   0  30  10  10
LBL   1  15  10  25 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  -5  15   9  18 /   0  30  50  50
P28   3  21  12  26 /   0  20  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 11 AM CST /10 AM
MST/ Saturday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert