Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171816 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Goodbye ice! The meltdown is in full swing this afternoon.
Despite the melting ice (and the melting snow and higher
reflectivity across the western counties),temperatures are still
approaching MOS guidance. Lower 40s will be common this afternoon.
A clear sky is expected this afternoon and this evening, before
high clouds increase tonight. With the increasing clouds, and
added moisture in the boundary layer, lows tonight will be well
above January normals, in the mid to upper 20s. Along with WFO
Goodland, included patchy fog in the grids across the NW zones
after midnight.

Wednesday...A weak shortwave will flirt with the SE counties
during the morning hours, then rotate into NE Kansas by 6 pm. Some
additional clouds across the east/SE zones with this feature
Wednesday morning, and perhaps some sprinkles, but along with WFO
Wichita kept only token/ghost pops and kept the forecast dry.
Short term models suggest stratus spreading across mainly the
western zones Wednesday morning, as dewpoints climb into the 30s.
Assuming this stratus isn`t too extensive, and assuming we have
melted most of the snow/ice by midday, and given how temperatures
are behaving today, warmed up Wednesday`s highs closer to the
warmer 12z MAV guidance (upper 40s and lower 50s). The stratus is
a wildcard, and will be watched closely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

The developing trough of low pressure at the surface over eastern
Colorado will deepen mid week as an upper level low/trough crosses
the central and southern Rockies. The developing southern winds in
the lower levels will begin to draw some moisture back into south
central and portions of southwest Kansas early Wednesday ahead of
this upper wave which will give rise to some increase clouds and
possibly some very light precipitation. At this time given the
forecast moisture return the chance for any type of precipitation
appears small so will only introduce increasing clouds mid week.
With this increasing cloud cover which will is expected to linger
until the upper level trough/low finally moves east of western
Kansas late Thursday. This should place a brief pause on the
warming trend with highs both Wednesday and Thursday being in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Lows Wednesday night may not be as cold as
what the latest guidance suggests given this expected cloud cover,
especially east of Dodge City.

From late week and through the weekend period a series of upper
level troughs will move out of the eastern Pacific and cross into
the Central and Southern Plains. The first upper level system is
forecast to move out into the West Central High Plains late
Friday. Improving lift will develop ahead of this upper wave based
on the 850mb warm air advection and isentropic lift. This will
give rise to our next chance for precipitation. At this time it
appears that the area more favorable for this precipitation will
be west central and north central Kansas.

For the remainder of the weekend the GFS and ECMWF both quickly
bring the next, stronger, upper level trough into the central and
southern Plains by Saturday night. Given the latest track of this
system and expected temperatures over western Kansas late this
weekend this will be our next chance for winter precipitation.
Precipitation type that far out with this progressive system is
still unclear so will stay close to what the latest guidance has
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR through this evening with light winds. Clouds from GCK to HYS
will continue to clear early this afternoon. SKC expected late
this afternoon and early evening, with increasing high clouds
06-09z. Short term models show stratus and reduced vis in BR/fog
spreading into the western counties after 12z Wed. Highest
confidence in IFR ceilings is at GCK, with less confidence
eastward. Southeast winds are expected to bring increasing
moisture late Wednesday through Thursday. With dewpoints climbing
into the 30s, and continued melting ice/snow cover, periods of
fog are likely to affect the terminals during this timeframe.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  30  51  33 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  43  25  48  28 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  45  28  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  47  29  54  29 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  40  26  45  32 /  20   0   0  10
P28  47  29  52  35 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner


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