262
FXUS63 KDDC 182308
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Virtually full sunshine across SW KS as of midday, with convective
debris clouds now SE of the CWA. Overnight thunderstorm activity
has pretty much wiped instability out of SW KS, with only
marginal CAPE trying to hold on near the KS/OK border.
Mesoanalysis also reveals a strong mesohigh situated across the
eastern TX panhandle and western Oklahoma, which will continue to
prevent moisture return and recovery through today. Removed all
remaining pops for the SE zones through this evening (pops < 15%).
12z NAM and HRRR solutions are both dry. Highs this afternoon in
the low to mid 90s. It`s still summer.

Tonight...Clear. Light and variable (mostly E/SE) winds of 5 mph
or less. Lows in the 60s (except lower 70s from Coldwater to
Kiowa).

Saturday...Breezy and hot. Lee trough strengthens across eastern
Colorado into NW Kansas during the afternoon, with south winds
increasing in response. South winds will average 10-20 mph with
some gusts near 30 mph at times. Temperature trends at 850 mb show
a net increase of +2C compared to Friday, so highs in the mid 90s
will be common. Did hold back from the hotter MOS guidance a few
degrees with recent rainfall and moist soils, and lack of better
downslope. NAM forecasts decent convergence and modest CAPE along
the lee trough axis near the NW zones by late afternoon. With this
in mind, included a slight chance of thunderstorms for the NW
zones Saturday 5-7 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Sunday...Still plenty hot, with an isolated late day thunderstorm
possible. With sprawling Bermuda High to the east, and weak
cutoff low near Los Angeles, gentle SW flow aloft will allow
monsoonal moisture to seep into SW KS, at least at the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere. Despite the moisture and hot
temperatures, forcing and instability appear weak. Kept pops very
low. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s.

Monday...Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms remain possible.
A few degrees cooler, mainly in the lower 90s. Broad 500 mb trough
will progress through the northern plains during the day, with
attendant lee trough persisting over SW KS. Isolated convection
expected along this boundary during the afternoon, with some
strong storms possible. Expect thunderstorm coverage to increase,
particularly across the northern zones, Monday evening as strong
cold front approaches. This front looks rather robust for August,
and will need to monitor for severe weather potential (mainly
NE counties) Monday evening/night. ECMWF strongly suggests an MCS
over north central Kansas.

Tuesday...North winds and cooler. 12z ECMWF drops 850 mb
temperatures to near 18C NE to near 20C at Dodge City. Heights
aloft will still be substantial (592 dm), so the cooldown will be
modest, mainly upper 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly dry, with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. A weak
frontal boundary pushing south across western Kansas will bring
north to northeast winds to all the terminals early in the period.
This front will wash out with winds becoming southerly on Saturday.
The Garden City and Liberal terminals could become gusty to 10-20
knots by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  96  70  95 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  65  96  68  93 /   0  10  20  20
EHA  63  95  64  90 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  66  96  69  94 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  65  97  70  96 /   0   0  30  10
P28  71  97  73  96 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard