000
FXUS63 KDDC 030831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
231 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A PV anomaly evident in the water vapor imagery will swing through
the panhandles into western Oklahoma late this afternoon and this
evening. Disorganized radar reflectivity now over southeast Colorado
associated with the anomaly will likely develop into a more
organized band as is moves into southwest Kansas. This is well
supported in the various WRF (NMM and ARW) model runs between now
and around 03 UTC. As a result, given much higher snow ratio values
with the colder incoming air aloft, additional snow of at least an
inch to more locally banded 2 or 3 inches are possible between
around 4 and 7 pm, oriented west to east. Winds will also be weakening
with time, especially the gusts which could lead to better
possibility of packed snow on roads. As a result we will extend the
winter weather advisory for the area south of highway K-96 through
mid evening.

Temperatures could be the coldest of the season overnight as skies
clear between 3 and 7 am, with weakening winds to nearly light
under a surface ridge. We`ve undercut the Bias corrected WRF for
Monday morning`s low temperatures which places the coldest
temperatures from around Dodge City to Hays. Temperatures were
trending colder as well with highs on Monday only struggling to
around 20 degrees in central Kansas, generally east of highway
283.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary along the
lee of the Rockies on Tuesday as a cold front moves south into
Nebraska by late day. Ahead of this cold front an area of warm
925mb to 850mb air is forecast to cross western Kansas during the
afternoon. Using the 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures as a guide
for highs the potential exists for temperatures climb back into
the 60s given full sun. At this time however will only trend
towards these warmer temperatures only across west central and
portions of far western Kansas given the potential for clouds
along with some linger snow cover. Confidence is not high on where
the snow cover will be on Tuesday but using the Dual Pol Storm
Total Accum estimates as a guide will favor keeping some lingering
snow cover southeast of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. In
this area trended afternoon temperatures towards the cooler MET
guidance which suggested highs only in the lower 40s.

Both the NAM and GFS agree in moving a cold front across
southwest Kansas Tuesday night with increasing low and mid level
moisture developing in the wake of this cold front late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday. Despite the agreement in frontal passage
the NAM and GFS disagree on the depth and how quickly the lower
levels saturate. NAM was more aggressive and as a result attempts
to generate some light precipitation between 06z and 12z across
most of southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the
Central High Plains. GFS was not as aggressive and therefore kept
the precipitation chances in west central and portions of north
central Kansas where the better mid level moisture and forcing
will be present prior to 12z Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on
how the lower levels will saturate late Tuesday night will
currently favor the GFS and keep small precipitation chances
mainly across west central and north central Kansas based on where
the better mid level forcing will be located ahead of this mid
week upper level system.

On Wednesday the upper level trough will cross western Kansas
early in the day with subsidence and drying forecast during the
afternoon behind this upper level system. Based on the 00z NAM and
00z GFS timing of this upper level trough will keep a chance of
precipitation going early Wednesday but taper this precipitation
off from west to east, mainly after 18z. Given the net 24hour
change in 950 to 850mb temperatures of roughly 3 to 7C the
previous forecast still look on track with Highs on Wednesday
mainly in the 40s. Lower 50s still look likely across portions of
southwest Kansas. May even be a little warmer than this across far
western Kansas if skies clear sooner.

CRExtendFcst_Init still looks on track with Highs rebounding back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday given that 850mb
temperatures warm from the single digits into the teens. Another
cold front crossing into western Kansas on Friday will put an end
to this warming trend with cooler temperatures returning by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the period as surface high
pressure builds in this morning and then moves off to the east.
Winds will be light and variable tonight and then become southerly
at 10-12 kts Monday on the back side of the surface high.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  13  45  27 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  25  16  54  28 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  43  23  57  33 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  33  18  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  10  44  25 /   0   0   0  20
P28  20  10  40  25 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch