Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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708 FXUS63 KDDC 112141 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 441 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of beneficial rainfall are expected Saturday night through Monday morning. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 are expected. - Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with marginally severe hail possible. - Additional opportunities are expected Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 An upper low over the Desert Southwest will approach the high plains this evening and overnight, with mid level warm advection developing. One batch of forcing will arrive this evening, with rain developing across west central and far southwest Kansas. Rain showers will then spread eastward during the late evening. Another round of showers will move east out of Colorado late tonight and persist into early Sunday. A break in precipitation should occur mid to late morning Sunday. However, by mid-day, the upper low will approach Kansas, with -18C 500mb cold pool entering far southwest Kansas by noon. Low level moisture will increase ahead of this system, with dewpoints in the 50s by mid day. Some breaks in the cloud will allow for temperatures to rise to the convective temperature in the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting 1000-1500 g/kg surface based CAPE, especially from Garden City southwestward to Liberal and Johnson. Additionally, the exit region of a 60-80 kt upper level jet will be situated across southwest Kansas. Given the presence of the upper low, the capping inversion will be very weak so that t-storm initiation is likely by mid day to early afternoon. These storms will initially be isolated to scattered so that hail from nickel to quarter size can`t be ruled out. Wouldn`t be surprised if a weak landspout tornado or two occurred given the presence of the upper low, with relatively cold temperatures at mid levels. During the late afternoon these storms will congeal into lines of storms with locally heavy rain; but by this point the storms will probably not be strong or severe. However, given the convective nature of the precipitation, rain totals will be highly variable, with some locations receiving over an inch, and other locations getting far less. Aside from areas of localized convection, the storm total rain through Sunday night of an inch across much of southwest Kansas may be overdone. Probabilistically, the CMCE, ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means indicate 60-80% chances of .5" or more through Sunday night across central and southwest Kansas and 10-30% chances of 1" or greater. The overall probabilities are slightly higher across central Kansas at locations such as Hays, Stafford and Pratt. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The aforementioned upper low will be east of here on Monday. However, with continued cold temperatures at 500mb, along with daytime heating and marginal moisture, a few showers are still possible, especially over central Kansas. By Tuesday, some air mass recovery is possible across the western high plains as winds become southeasterly in response to mid level westerly flow across the Rockies. Thus, there is a small chance of thunderstorms for places such as Syracuse, Johnson and Lakin Tuesday night. A weak upper level disturbance will approach the central high plains Wednesday. There is a better chance of thunderstorms Wednesday evening and night as this system passes. The best chance of locally heavy rains may be across central Kansas Wednesday night since this system is an open wave as opposed to a closed low. This is supported by the ensemble means that indicate 30-50% chances of .5" or greater across central Kansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, with lesser chances farther west. How far west the heavier rains occur depends on the placement of the low level instability. But given the time of year and lack of a closed off upper level low, this is more likely across central Kansas. A few of the storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be marginally severe given moderate surface based CAPE and modest vertical shear. The upper level flow will become more zonal by Thursday and Friday as the weak disturbance passes to the east of our area. This will allow for warming, with highs rising into the lower 80s Thursday and near 90 for Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 441 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 KDDC radar at 2130z depicted scattered showers and embedded weak thunderstorms west of GCK/LBL, moving slowly east. As such, the 00z TAFs for these airports start with a VCSH/VCTS/CB mention. VFR will continue through at least 06z Sun, but consensus of short term models shows stratus ceilings lowering to MVFR at GCK/LBL/DDC by 12z Sun. Scattered rain showers and limited thunder are expected at or near the airports 06-15z Sun, with a more widespread coverage of scattered thunderstorms at/near all the airports after 18z Sun. VFR is expected to prevail outside any rain showers/convection, so kept TAFs simple for now, mentioning -SHRA with P6SM, or mentioned VCSH/VCTS/CB. Visibility may be reduced to 3-4 sm in BR around 12z Sun. Light south winds will continue with a southerly component through 15z Sun. After 15z, an increase in south winds is forecast, with gusts to near 25 kts at LBL/GCK/DDC. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Turner