Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292034
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Updated Short and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Potentially more active late afternoon to evening than was
previously thought could prevail over southwest into central KS.
While the overall upper pattern is dominated by weak shortwave
ridging over the Central Plains and split flow between the
subtropical and polar jets, the mesoscale is driving convective
evolution beyond what the pattern would normal stipulate.
Specifically, a weak front over western Oklahoma into the northern
Texas Panhandle, has permitted near continual convection across this
area.  A remnant outflow boundary moving west/northwest from this
area of precipitation has allowed deep convection to develop on the
fringe of the cirrus plume where strong solar insolation has
produced strong instability and weak capping.  While shear profiles
are on the weaker side on a larger scale, a local backing of winds
north of the remnant outflow is generating enough shear to result
in weak rotating storms. Given this, lower end severe convection
with hail up to half dollar in size will be possible through the
afternoon hours.

Moving into the evening hours, the question going forward  is
whether this current convection will generate a large enough cold
pool to sustain as a small forward propagating MCS. Current
thinking is that it will and have adjusted precipitation chances
toward an small MCS rolling into central KS during the evening
hours. Marginal severe threat will remain but switch to a more
outflow dominated mode.

Remainder of tonight into early on Monday will then turn quiet as
weak ridging takes hold of the Central High Plains in advance of an
upper trough digging into the Intermountain West.  This will bring
overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. Strong solar insolation will
then develop on Monday with resultant highs in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Attention then shifts toward late Monday afternoon to evening as
positively tilted wave in the southern stream, phases with a
stronger northern stream system rippling along the Canadian border.
As this wave approaches the Central Plains, the lee trough will
deepen enough to generate some convection by late afternoon to
evening generally west of highway 283, although deep layer shear
will be marginal enough to preclude widespread severe over
southwest KS. With that stated, this convection may generate
enough of a cold pool to create a forward propagating MCS, mainly
north of highway 96 during the evening hours as a 40-KT LLJ
develops. In addition, this convection will likely help push a
Pacific front into western KS during the overnight hours although
suspect the frontal passage will initially be relatively benign
behind any MCS. Nonetheless, this sets the stage for a potentially
wet and cool day on Tuesday as larger scale forcing from the mid
to upper wave interacts with this front to generate widespread
showers and thunderstorms after sunrise. Best chance for
precipitation appears to be confined to the morning to afternoon
hours as a worked over airmass with this precipitation should
help push the front farther south by mid evening.

Wednesday is then shaping up to be a cool but generally dry day
across southwest into central KS as subsidence behind the exiting
wave leaves a stable dome of high pressure across the area.  Despite
a decent day of heating, temperatures will stay in the 70s for
afternoon highs. Beyond Wednesday, the ECMWF and GFS begin to form a
blocking pattern over the western half of the country with an omega
block ridge over the Rockies. An anticyclonic wave break is shown
to form over the southern half of the Great Plains but this should
stay far enough south to leave generally dry conditions over most
of the Central Plains. Expect temperatures to rebound back near to
above seasonal normals for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Initially for this afternoon, a few stray thunderstorms will move
across primarily south-central KS along with locations north of
highway 96. However, most of this will have MVFR ceilings and
little in the way of strong low-level winds given lack of shear.
Attention then shifts toward this evening as a remnant outflow
boundary moving into southeast Colorado along with a trough of low
pressure, may trigger additional storms near Elkhart and Liberal
but any storms should fade quickly by sunset. Otherwise, MVFR or
better conditions will prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  83  60  77 /  30  20  30  60
GCK  57  84  58  75 /  30  30  30  60
EHA  56  85  58  75 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  57  84  60  76 /  40  30  30  60
HYS  58  81  59  74 /  30  20  60  60
P28  60  83  63  80 /  40  10  30  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...AJohnson


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