Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE
DAY. THE EXCEPTION WAS AREAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE AND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WERE IN A REGION OF DEVELOPING EXPANDING CUMULUS
WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. RADAR
RETURNS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE INITIAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WERE
BEGINNING TO SHOW IMPACT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED NEAR 20 KNOTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WAS ALSO JUST UPSTREAM OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS HAVE FIRMLY TRENDED TOWARD A FARTHER  SOUTH SOLUTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST TRACKING TROPICAL STORM REMNANT. AS A RESULT HEAVY RAINS
ARE UNLIKELY TONIGHT, AND IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TO HAVE TROUBLE EVEN SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS AN OUTLIER THE THE GFS/NAM/EC WITH A
VORTICITY TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF HEAVY RAIN OVER LOCATIONS EAST
OF LIBERAL TO AROUND COLDWATER, BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE NAM
REMAINS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DESPITE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING (STILL RELATIVELY
LOW) POPS AFTER 18 UTC SATURDAY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS AS
WELL AS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNDERGOING A TRANSITION FROM A PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A LONG WAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST TO A MORE BLOCKY REGIME WITH RIDGING IN
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES BREAKING OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN
SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS DO EXIST. THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO PICK UP ON
THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND LARGELY WAS USED FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE WEAKENING QUICKER THAN PLANNED
AND ARE FOLLOWING A TRAJECTORY FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. AS SUCH, ITS IMPACT ON SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY
WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF LESS CLOUD COVER, AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO
MONTANA WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
WALLOW SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS
IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE GFS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN WESTERN KANSAS AND
EASTERN COLORADO AND SUGGESTS THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE AND LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COOL AIR PROPAGATES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE ECMWF LIKELY IS
MAINTAINING TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
THE LESS MOIST GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS WILL FAVOR STRONG TROUGHING IN
EASTERN COLORADO. SEVERAL MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES SLOWLY INTO
THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST MINOR TROUGH WILL APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY EVENING, AND AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WARM, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ANOTHER
MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS TUESDAY, AND YET
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BREAK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL APPROACH KANSAS ABOUT 28 SEPTEMBER.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN THE BLOCKY REGIME AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CU COULD
DEVELOP AROUND 3000FT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  87  64  82 /  10  20  30  40
GCK  64  87  62  81 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  63  85  61  79 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  66  87  64  82 /  20  20  20  30
HYS  65  87  60  77 /  10  20  30  20
P28  68  89  67  85 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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