Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210644
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
144 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  56  76  55 /   0  10  50  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  40  40
EHA  76  54  73  51 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  76  55  76  53 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  72  57  76  54 /   0  10  60  70
P28  77  57  77  57 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE



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