Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261705
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST
TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A SIMILAR SETUP FOR CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A GLACE AT THE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS SUPPORT GOOD CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/GUSTY OUTFLOW PRODUCING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
OVERALL SIGNAL SUGGESTS AS PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE LAST EPISODE, IN
WHICH THE CONVECTION BECOME OUTFLOW  DOMINANT AFTER JUST A FEW
HOURS OF SLOW PROPAGATION. THIS WILL REFLECT IN THE AREAL POPS
CERTAINLY AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT`S
CONVECTION  MAY BE A FACTOR TO CONSIDER LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES, HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSE IN THE
MODELS ACROSS THE KS/CO LINE SHOULD TURN SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY
LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND INSOLATION
WARMS UP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, THE HEAT INDICES WILL GAIN
BECOME UNCOMFORTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ADVISORY WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES
AND PERHAPS EXPANDED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE WILL BE LITTLE EXPECTED OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROPERTIES THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY, BEFORE THE REGION BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY THE NEXT PACIFIC SOURCE SURFACE HIGH. EVEN THEN, THE
GFS CONTINUES TO ONLY INDICATE BRIEF REDUCTION IN THE LAYER MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOME FLATTENED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
HE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RAPIDLY RETURNING  AIR PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH, WHILE MODEL PWAT`S CONTINUE AROUND 1.5"+ ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DODGE CITY WARNING AREA WELL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
BROAD UPPER NORTHWEST  FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT  THUNDERSTORM  DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH  THE GFS IS HINTING AT
THURSDAY  AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. IN THE MEANTIME, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD
PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INDEPENDENT OF TIME OF DAY,
PROVIDING A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO
LATE EVENING. KGCK, AND LATER KHYS, COULD BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  73 102  74 /  10  40  10   0
GCK  99  70 100  73 /  30  50  10  10
EHA  99  70 101  72 /  30  50  10  10
LBL 100  72 102  73 /  20  40  10   0
HYS  99  72 102  75 /  10  50  20   0
P28 101  75 102  75 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-066-081-
090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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