Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A northwest flow pattern aloft was well-established across the
Western Plains. At the surface, high pressure was in control, with
abundant low level moisture pushed well to the south across Texas.
In time, this low level moisture will start to pull back north as
the high shifts east and a lee trough develops at the surface.
This process will begin late tonight just off the surface with
850mb winds becoming southerly across Texas Panhandle starting
around 06z tonight. Good moisture advection will begin during the
overnight hours with +12C and higher 850mb dewpoints reaching
Elkhart to Johnson by daybreak. Dewpoints at the surface will
really ramp up during the day tomorrow across much of the area,
especially western half of the forecast area. Lee trough
convergence will become better defined late afternoon tomorrow.
6km AGL winds out of the northwest 35-40 knots and surface winds
out of the south at around 15 knots will yield sufficient deep
layer shear for supercell storms along the trough axis. Forecast
hodographs show a good broad anticyclonic shape as well.
Supercell storm motions would likely be almost due south at around
10 knots. SPC SWODY2 upgraded much of western KS to a 2-SLGT from
the earlier outlook of 1-MRGL, and this definitely makes sense.
The question will be how long storms survive after sunset. There
shouldn`t be a tremendous amount of synoptic forcing for ascent,
but in late June northwest flow, you don`t need much to get at
least a small MCS going. Will carry some 30-40 POPs across the
western third of the forecast area through 06z, but this forecast
may be fine tuned as better signals appear regarding duration of
convection after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest flow pattern aloft will continue Wednesday and Thursday.
The surface pattern will be very similar on Wednesday, so the same
areas may see another round of late afternoon/evening storms
across west central Kansas. The NAM and GFS models suggest a minor
wave moving across the northwest flow which may lead to better
organization for late night MCS. This will have to be watched and
POPs may need to be increased in future updates. This minor wave
with jet streak moving across the far Northern Plains will yield a
minor cold front pushing into northern Kansas Thursday. We expect
a third evening in a row of thunderstorm activity across
western/southwestern KS with perhaps the focus just a bit farther
east, depending on how far south this front pushes. Out ahead of
said front, temperatures should be the warmest of the week with
widespread 99 to 102F temperatures, especially west of U283. The
forecast becomes more complicated Friday and Saturday. The first
front is shown to stall out with post-frontal upslope
southeasterly winds by the ECMWF Friday. This is in response to
the next system digging southeast from Washington and northern
Idaho into the Northern Rockies. The GFS shows an entirely
different solution, and it is largely discounted since it is
outlier as the Canadian shows a scenario similar to the ECMWF. The
very strong cold front advertised by the GFS late Friday looks too
early. As a result, one more hot day is now expected Saturday -- a
day which now is starting to look more interesting regarding more
organized severe weather ahead of the 2nd, much stronger cold
front. Hopefully in the next day or so, the weekend forecast will
become a bit more clear regarding front timing and any severe
weather risk.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR expected through this forecast period, with scattered mid and
high clouds. Winds will remain light through 15z. After 15z
Tuesday, lee troughing across eastern Colorado and NW Kansas will
generate a modest increase in south winds at all airports,
averaging 15-25 kts. Scattered to broken cumulus expected by 21z.
Kept all mention of convection out of the 00z TAFs, but scattered
convection is expected to impact the airports just after this
forecast period, during the 00-06z Wed timeframe. Some of these
storms may become severe with a risk for hail and strong outflow
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  95  70  98 /   0  10  20  10
GCK  64  98  69 102 /   0  30  30  20
EHA  65  97  68 101 /   0  30  30  20
LBL  65  97  70 101 /   0  10  30  10
HYS  63  94  70  98 /   0  20  40  20
P28  64  95  70  96 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner



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