Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD



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