Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Welcome back to winter! Temperatures will struggle this afternoon
in the face of strong NW/N winds and strong cold air advection,
with most locations only adding another 4-5 degrees above current
late morning readings. Stratus and stratocumulus rotating through
SW KS on the backside of the departing cyclone will be slow to
dissipate this afternoon, but ceilings will eventually lift and
scatter out through sunset.

Tonight...Cold, but the question is exactly how cold. In many
respects, radiational cooling will be near optimal tonight, as
Canadian surface high settles directly over SW KS. Winds will
become light and variable overnight, with a dry atmosphere over a
dry ground. Also need to factor in this incoming airmass is being
refrigerated by fresh snowpack to our north. Teens will be common
by sunrise Saturday, and guidance is in the teens and was
accepted. Was going to undercut guidance, but most models show
midlevel clouds increasing overnight from the west. Assuming the
clouds arrive, they would stop temperatures from falling through
the floor. If the clouds fail to materialize, then forecast
updates will be needed to drop low temperatures.

Saturday...Mostly sunny, dry and seasonably chilly. High pressure
over SW KS at sunrise will exit rapidly stage right during the
day, ending up in the Mississippi valley by 6 pm. In response,
winds will quickly become SW and increase a bit to 10-20 mph.
Despite the downslope components, given the cold start and the
recirculated continental polar air, high temperatures will fall
short of normal for most locations Saturday, in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A warming trend can be expected to start Saturday as the level
flow becomes more zonal and surface high pressure moves away from
Kansas. Highs ought to warm into the lower 50s by Sunday and lower
60s by Monday. A fast moving upper level system could result in a
few rain showers Sunday night across south central Kansas.
Another upper level system will traverse the plains by late
Tuesday with another cold frontal passage Tuesday evening. After a
mild day Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, highs
should fall back into the upper 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday and
then recover back into the upper 50s by Thursday. Mild weather can
be expected through Saturday before the next cold front arrives.
Precipitation chances are very small Tuesday into Wednesday
despite the passage of the upper level system. Dry weather will
prevail late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Stratus and stratocumulus ceilings will be slow to erode this
afternoon, gradually lifting and dissipating through 00z Sat.
MVFR cigs will persist for a few more hours, along with some -SHSN
in the vicinity of HYS. NW winds will be strong at all airports
through this afternoon, gusting 30-35 kts. Expect north winds to
weaken quickly around sunset. Winds will go light and variable
overnight into Saturday morning, as 1026 mb surface high settles
directly over SW KS. Some mid level clouds are expected around
sunrise, with SW winds returning behind the departing surface high
after 15z Sat.


DDC  38  17  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  15  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  17  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  18  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  15  44  24 /  20   0   0   0
P28  43  19  46  29 /   0   0   0   0




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