Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1221 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Dry conditions will continue across western Kansas today and
tonight as a prevailing zonal flow aloft persists across the
Western High Plains along with much drier air in the lower/mid
levels. Near normal temperatures are likely again today with
little change expected to the general air mass across the high
plains of western Kansas. Look for highs once again up into the
mid 40s(F) to the mid 50s(F) this afternoon. For tonight, expect
lows down into the teens(F) across west central Kansas to the
20s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Precip chances return Friday night into the early part of the weekend
as a deepening upper level trough of low pressure across the Great
Basin drops southward into northern Mexico. This will set up an
increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High
Plains throughout the weekend. Meanwhile, a modest subtropical
moisture plume is expected to lift northeast across the South
Plains of west Texas into Oklahoma and southern Kansas Friday
night/early Saturday. Although the bulk of the system will remain
well to our south, a strong jet core aloft combined with some
increased lift in the lower levels may be enough to support
marginal precip development Friday night. Vertical profiles from
model soundings suggest liquid precip possible early with a likely
switch over to snow later Friday evening through early Saturday
morning. However, weak QPF signals show little if any accumulation
overall with the best chance for accumulating snow closer to the
Oklahoma border. Drier conditions are then expected through early
Monday as the deep upper level low begins to shift eastward across
northern Mexico.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly seasonal Friday as a
general easterly upslope flow persists across the high plains doing
little to erode the air mass. Expect highs up into the 40s(F) to the
lower 50s(F) Friday afternoon. A slightly colder air mass is projected
to push southeastward into western Kansas Saturday, briefly dropping
high temperatures a little further down into the 40s(F) before highs
bounce back a bit Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

VFR. Some high clouds. Light and variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  23  47  27 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  47  20  46  26 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  46  22  43  24 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  48  22  46  27 /   0   0  10  50
HYS  47  22  47  28 /   0   0   0  30
P28  53  27  51  33 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden



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