Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...Updated to extend winter weather advisory for a few counties in
our eastern county warning area...

Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

An Upper level disturbance currently crossing southwest Kansas
this morning. Widely scattered convection was also occurring ahead
of this wave across northwest Kansas and north central Oklahoma.
RAP seems to be handling this upper wave fairly well and given
this along with low level moisture and the i285 to i295 isentropic
lift ahead of this upper wave will plan on extending the winter
weather advisory for several counties in north central and south
central Kansas through the late afternoon. At this time expected
any additional accumulations to be light but any additional
accumulations on top of what have already occurred will continue
to cause travel issues. Will also be allowing the winter weather
advisory to expire at noon along and west of a Wakeeney to
Coldwater line given any type of measurable precipitation has
ended or will end within the next hour.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue in the forecast
through the day on Thursday. A shortwave will move out of New
Mexico into Oklahoma and southern Kansas by late morning to around
noon. Another area of light freezing rain and sleet is expected to
develop and I went more with the NAM solution that had the area of
precipitation a little further west. After looking at the present
track of the shortwave early this morning I think that is the
best solution at this point. With upslope flow due to east to
southeast winds the clouds should stay thick all day for most of
the area with the exception of areas near the Colorado border
which could have breaks of sun by the afternoon.

The shortwave will move out by Thursday night and an area of high
pressure will move in and quiet conditions are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Next longwave trough and area of low pressure will move out of the
Rockies into the Central Plains from Friday night into Saturday.
Both the Euro and GFS are suggesting a light wintry mix developing
in the forecast area sometime after midnight Friday going into
Saturday. Winds are expected to pick up on the backside of the low
by Saturday afternoon. The colder air should hang around until
Sunday and then the winds turn back to the south and southwest
Monday. Towards the end of the forecast period the upper level
winds will be in a southwest direction and a Pacific upper low
develops off the coast of California. If this pattern continues
with subsequent forecasts, there is the possibility this
particular system could bring some convection to the Central
Plains for the start of March.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Improving conditions can be expected this afternoon behind an
upper level trough that will be crossing southwest Kansas through
the early afternoon. Current IFR and MVFR ceilings conditions at
Garden City and Liberal are expected to improve into the VFR
category around 21z Thursday. At Dodge City and Hays conditions
will also improve but MVFR ceilings are still expected through
sunset with some patchy drizzle lingering in the Hays area through
21z Thursday.

Tonight will need to monitor the fog/freezing fog
potential for southwest Kansas given the persistent southeast
winds. Areas where the freezing fog does develop tonight will may
also see a light glaze by 12z Friday, especially on elevated
surfaces. Ceilings overnight will fall back into the IFR/LIFR
category at all taf sites between 03z and 08z Thursday.


DDC  33  23  46  31 /  20   0   0  30
GCK  37  19  46  27 /  20   0   0  30
EHA  46  24  55  29 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  39  22  50  31 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  31  22  41  27 /  30  10   0  60
P28  32  25  46  34 /  40  10  10  30


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ031-



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