Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150803
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
303 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A surface high will build across western Kansas today as a
northwesterly flow aloft develops across the western high plains.
After some chilly early morning temperatures the highs today are
expected to climb only into the 60s based on the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Monday.

The surface high will continue to track southeast tonight and by
early Monday morning the lighter winds associated with this
surface high are forecast to be located in south central Kansas.
Given the good agreement on where the lighter winds will be early
Monday morning along with clear skies, and dew points in the upper
20s to lower 30s will favor undercutting the cooler guidance for
low tonight east and south of Dodge City. Further north and west
the previous forecast still appears on track with lows falling
into the mid 30s. Temperatures may even be a couple of degrees
cooler in a few isolated locations which may lead to isolated
pockets of frost.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Early next week a northwesterly down slope flow will be present
across the Central Plains. A slow warming trend can be expected
across western Kansas with high temperatures climbing from around
70 on Monday to the upper 70s/near 80 mid week. A subtle upper
wave embedded in the northwesterly flow will move across the
Western High Plains early in the week but little in the way of
moisture will be available for this upper wave to work with.

Wednesday and Thursday the GFS and ECMWF still advertising a
stronger upper level trough to move out of the Central Rockies and
across the West Central High Plains. Moisture will be limited
ahead of this next system so dry conditions will continue. There
will be a chance for some slightly cooler air to filter into
southwest Kansas late week behind a weak cold front but what
little, if any, cooler air that does filter into western Kansas
will not last long. Warmer temperatures expected to return by
early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Gusty northwest winds will continue to slowly decrease through the
early morning hours as an area of high pressure at the surface
begins to build into western Kansas. The surface winds will fall
back to around 10 knots between 09z and 12z Sunday and then these
northwest winds will gradually back to the west/southwest during
the day as the center of the surface high builds across western
Kansas. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions over the next 24
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  35  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  36  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  64  37  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  64  35  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  37  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
P28  63  39  72  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
061-062-074.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ044-063-075-
084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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