Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

High pressure aloft is at its peak intensity at midday, with a
clear sky and temperatures soaring on their way to 100 as of noon.
Heat index values will be most dangerous across eastern areas this
afternoon and early evening, and the heat advisory continues.
NAM forecasts scattered thunderstorms this evening along the
periphery of the ridge, across SE Colorado and SW Nebraska, with a
few storms hugging the northern CWA border overnight. Was about to
ignore this solution, until GFS came in with something very
similar, with isolated convection mainly north of Dodge City
tonight. HRRR also lends support to convection near Hays by late
this evening. Confidence is low on thunderstorm development. Weak
vorticity max rounding the ridge axis appears to be the only
forcing evident. Spread slight chance/isolated wording across
the northern zones overnight.

Friday...Still hot! High pressure remains quite strong, with no
changes in thickness or 850 mb temperatures noted. As such, high
confidence in widespread triple digit heat Friday afternoon.
Afternoon max temperatures from 100-106, with the most dangerous
heat indices again relegated to the far eastern zones and lowest
elevations. Heat advisory continues through evening. Hot and dry
for most, but isolated thunderstorms may find their way into
northern zones by evening where the high pressure ridge`s
influence is weakest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Another hot day on Saturday. Although high pressure aloft will
continue to weaken with lowering heights, the atmosphere remains
hot on Saturday with little to no change in 850 mb temps or
thickness. Afternoon highs from 99-104. Ongoing heat advisory will
likely have to be extended to include Saturday, especially the SE
zones near Medicine Lodge. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
coverage expected to favor the W/NW zones Saturday afternoon and
evening. Marginal risk of marginal wind/hail from any convection
across NW zones late Saturday. Forcing is nebulous, but should be
able to start pulling in convection from the higher terrain by
Saturday evening.

Sunday...Still expecting a break from the heat. Weak frontal
boundary adds an easterly component to the surface wind fields,
and thicknesses finally relax. Temperatures "cool" a few degrees
back to the 90s, enough to let the heat advisory expire.
Thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage by Sunday evening,
particularly across the western 1/2 of the CWA, as westerly flow
aloft increases a bit, and embedded vort maxes begin pushing
convection eastward from the higher terrain.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances of thunderstorms
expected. High pressure ridge will gradually strengthen and remain
stationary over the Great Basin through this period. Expect
nocturnal MCSs to become more likely as NW flow establishes
itself, with 12z ECMWF suggesting this is most likely around
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A cluster of elevated showers and thunderstorms were moving
through west central CO into NW KS, in an area of extremely
steering flowwith no significant shear. Propogation will not be
much further east during the overnight, however it is possible a
decaying shower could reach as far as KGCK by 9-12 UTC. Other than
that, VFR conditions are forecast for another day as a dominant
upper high influences th eweather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 103  75 102 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  71 102  74  99 /  10  20  20  30
EHA  70 103  72 102 /  10  20  20  40
LBL  72 105  71 103 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  74 103  75 101 /  20  20  20  20
P28  75 106  77 104 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell



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