Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222036
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE FIRST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SATURDAY PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EVEN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
PLAY A PART IN WHAT HAPPENS LATER SATURDAY. JUST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO WEEKEND EVENTS, THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A
SUBSTANTIAL RECOVERY PERIOD DURING THE DAY. FORECASTING THAT
RECOVERY IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT, SO WILL KEEP THE BROAD BRUSH
CHANCES GOING. I WOULD LEAN TO PCPN ENDING EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH.
FORECASTING MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH RESIDUAL PCPN
AND STRATUS.

WITH RECENT RAINS ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD REQUIRE HOISTING A FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH EJECTING S/WV`S WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST AND WILL STILL BE IN A POSITION TO BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MONDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING NEXT
WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A PERIODIC
CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL, MOIST UPSLOPE PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE 500 TO 1000 FOOT
RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VERY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  66  59  76 /  60  70  50  40
GCK  53  67  57  77 /  50  50  30  30
EHA  55  71  55  77 /  70  50  20  20
LBL  56  67  58  78 /  70  70  30  20
HYS  52  64  58  75 /  50  60  50  30
P28  55  65  62  75 /  70  90  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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