Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022333
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT, AND BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY MID DAY JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 12000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT



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