Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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306
FXUS63 KDDC 071759
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1159 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Aligned pop/weather/temperature grids given trends. Snow showers
in progress will dissipate rapidly over the next 1-2 hours as lift
from strong passing shortwave ends. As this occurs, arctic air in
NW Kansas presently will dump into SW Kansas on gusty NE winds.
Also did an update earlier for non-diurnal downward temperature
trends and to bump up winds in the strong cold advection. It will
get colder this afternoon, not warmer!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

An upper level disturbance will fly through the Central Plains
today and exit into the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Lift with
this system will be strong, but moisture will be lacking in the
low to mid levels of the atmosphere. Nevertheless, cloudy skies
are expected today with scattered snow showers possible through
late afternoon. The best area to receive measurable snow will be
north of Highway 50 with over an inch of snow possible along the
I-70 corridor. Winds will shift from an easterly direction this
morning to the northeast this afternoon. Winds then shift to more
of a northerly direction this evening into the overnight period.
Cloudiness decreases tonight with mostly clear skies expected by
sunrise Thursday. As for temperatures, highs today look to range
from the low 20s across west central Kansas to lower 30s across
south central Kansas. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the
single digits, with the exception of south central Kansas where
lower teens will be found. In addition to the cold temperatures
overnight, wind chills in the negative single digits are
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions are expected through at
least the early part of next week as an upper level ridge builds
across the eastern Pacific leaving the Central High Plains under
northwest flow aloft. Towards the surface, arctic high pressure
will continue to bring cold air advection to western Kansas
Thursday then slide east of the area Friday. Lee troughing will
develop by Thursday night shifting northerly winds to more of a
southerly direction. The southerly winds continue through Saturday
when an upper level disturbance moves through the northern
Plains. This will help push a cold front through western Kansas
Saturday night. As for temperatures, highs Thursday will once
again range from the lower 20s across west central Kansas to lower
30s across south central Kansas. Lows Thursday night are
anticipated to dip to around 10 degrees. Highs then gradually warm
up to around 50 degrees by Saturday before returning into the 40s
Sunday into the first part of next week. Lows will generally be in
the 20s with the exception of west central Kansas which should dip
into the upper teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Snow will be winding down through 20z as a shortwave trough
passes to the east. Skies will clear this evening between 00 and
04 UTC. Aside from the light snow early in the period that will
reduce visibilities to 2-3 miles at times at KDDC and KHYS, VFR
condtions can be expected. Winds will decrease this evening as
surface high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26   8  27  10 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  26   5  26  10 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  30   8  27  13 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  29  10  29  12 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  23   7  24   8 /  60   0   0   0
P28  35  13  31  12 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Finch



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