Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250923
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



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