Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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683
FXUS63 KDDC 232351
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
651 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A broad, weak upper level trough was in place over the mountains and
western states today while an upper level ridge extended from the upper
Midwest into the Deep South. Between these features, southwesterly flow
aloft was over the northern and central Plains states. Weak disturbances
embedded in the flow were located over Nebraska. At the surface, a cold
front extended south across the Dakotas into far northwest Nebraska
and then westward across Wyoming. A low pressure trough extended south
from the front across western portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Abundant low level moisture returned to central and western portions
of Kansas overnight with mid to upper 60s dewpoints across the region.
Drier air was working its way back into southwest Kansas behind the
surface trough. By early afternoon the best low level moisture convergence
was setting up along a Coldwater to St John corridor. Visible satellite
imagery shows cumulus increasing in this area. Short term mesoscale
models have been consistently focusing on convective initiation
over south central Kansas between 21-22z along the axis of better
low level moisture. Have bumped up pops across the south central
zones late this afternoon. Storms that develop should move fairly
quickly off to the east by early evening given the mean wind
direction and speed over the area.

The weak disturbance over the Four Corners region will move out into
the central High Plains later tonight. The models are hinting at some
shower activity moving out into west central Kansas overnight which
could continue into north central and northwest Kansas later tonight
and Wednesday morning. With that in mind, will keep some slight chance
pops going in my northwest zones overnight.

On Wednesday, the cold front slides farther south across western
Kansas. There could be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across the northern portions of the area along I-70 in the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon hours
as the shortwave trough to the west moves out and interacts with the
frontal boundary. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little
cooler than today across southwest and the area given increasing
cloud cover and the location of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The shortwave is progged to move out over western Kansas Wednesday
evening. Thunderstorms should become a little more numerous along
the front into the evening hours. Precipitation may linger through
much of the night as upward vertical motion is enhanced over the
area by the right entrance region of an 80-90 knot upper level
jet. The front gradually slides farther south into southeast Kansas
and Oklahoma on Thursday. Will maintain some chance pops especially
across central/south central Kansas closer to the front.

An unsettled pattern appears to be in the works through the weekend.
A general trend in upper level southwesterly flow continues from
the southwestern U.S. A shortwave trough tracks east out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Saturday. This will
push another cold front down into the central High Plains
Saturday evening. Behind this system, upper level ridging builds
into the first part of next week. The models show a weak upper
disturbance slowly meandering across Kansas around Monday and
Tuesday which, if it pans out, could keep precip chances up
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Wind speed and direction will be a bit of a challenge this TAF
cycle, as a lee trough remains in close proximity. The dryline
will retreat back to the west around sunset, and winds may pick
back up above 12 knots in the couple hours following sunset at DDC,
so that will have to be watched. HYS and GCK should stay fairly
light on the winds. The convergence axis along the lee
trough (and eventually front tomorrow morning) will not move much,
so GCK, DDC, and HYS winds will likely remain below 12 knots.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop in the 09-15Z time
frame this period in the warm advection regime, but probability of
impact at any of the terminals is too low to include in the TAF.
More organized convection will likely develop toward the end of
this TAF period during the late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  88  61  78 /  20  40  50  40
GCK  65  83  59  77 /  20  30  40  30
EHA  64  84  59  76 /  20  40  50  30
LBL  67  87  60  77 /  10  40  50  30
HYS  68  82  59  76 /  20  40  50  20
P28  73  93  67  82 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid



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