Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 152046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 AND 54 CORRIDOR. AS
OF 2000 UTC, DDC WAS STILL BELOW 1000 FEET OVERCAST, BUT THE DRIZZLE
HAD CEASED. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPING...RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG I-70 WHERE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 50
FOR A LOW. FOR THE DAY TUESDAY, THE STRATUS LAYER WILL HANG TOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY TO LARNED TO STAFFORD, THE LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE DIRECT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AOB 2000 FEET AGL CONTINUES TO
WARM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK ALONG A NARROW BAND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT GCK AND DDC THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH CEILING
RISING TO AROUND 600-900 FEET LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 FEET AT GCK AND DDC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW. LIFR WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AT DDC AND GCK AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY
RECIRCULATING THE LOW LEVEL COOL/MOIST POOL. LIFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  78  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  54  82  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  55  86  62  89 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  57  83  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  50  73  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
P28  57  79  66  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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