Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220912
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATE FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN INVERTED TROUGH OF WARM MOIST ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LAYER
WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHRINKS DIURNALLY BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP, AND BE
VERY SHALLOW WITH THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG OR
FREEZING FOG. THE GFS MOS INDICATES VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 SM
WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS EVEN A QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
FORECAST AREAS OF FOG AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO
THE AREAL EXTENT AS WELL AS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT WITH
RESPECT HEADLINE ISSUANCE. MEANWHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. THE MODEL BLENDS
PRODUCE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 60S FROM LOCATIONS LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE, AND JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. A FEW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD AREAS LIKE
MEDICINE LODGE, PRATT AND COLDWATER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY BEFORE THE MID
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FAIRLY EARLY ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE FROPA ZONE. LIGHT
SNOW IS MORE LIKELY EARLY IN THE NORTH, WITH SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LATE MORNING. EITHER WAY, ONLY A TRACE TO 0.01 INCH OF PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. SO, THERE WILL BE A WIND CHILL ELEMENT IN THE
AIR.

BEYOND SUNDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TURN TO MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS, BUT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD BE NOT TOO GREAT TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PLOWING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK DOOR INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S IN THE HAYS
AND LACROSSE AREAS, THE MID 40S FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO DODGE CITY
TO SCOTT CITY, AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF KANSAS NEAR ELKHART. WINDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD START AROUND
10 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OFF TO OUR EAST.  WE
WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AS SOON AS FRIDAY WHEN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE RETURNS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE HAYS TO ST. JOHN CORRIDOR, TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL AT THE DDC AND HYS TERMINALS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
VERY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MODEST RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
WITHIN A COLDER AIRMASS STUCK BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THE LEE TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THE GCK TERMINAL ALTHOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
ALL TERMINALS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  39  52  28 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  63  35  52  25 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  67  36  50  26 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  66  35  52  26 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  59  38  51  29 /   0  10  20  10
P28  59  46  55  32 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...AJOHNSON



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