Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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796
FXUS63 KDDC 250530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Persistent mid level altostratus clouds continue this morning
across much of SW KS, beneath continued NW flow aloft. While
moisture and instability are weak, embedded vorticity maxima in
the NW flow keeps the occasional shower or thunderstorm possible,
as seen by the recent convective development near Goodland this
hour. HRRR suggests NW KS activity will spread into our northern
counties through sunrise, with additional storms in far SW KS
(near Elkhart) by 4 am or so. Latest HRRR runs indicate rain
showers persisting NE of Dodge City into at least the early
afternoon hours. Really don`t have a good feel where showers and
thunderstorms are more likely versus less likely, so just
broadbrushed slight chance pops everywhere through today. With
very limited instability, opted to include showers and only
isolated thunder in the grids. Certainly, no severe weather is
expected. Best chance of a stronger storm will be across the far
west near the CO/KS border this evening, where NAM increases CAPE
to a modest 1000 J/kg. Tweaked sky grids upward with model
forecast soundings and short term models all showing the mid layer
cloud decks near 7-9k ft persisting. Strong (for late June)
surface high (1028 mb) over central Nebraska at sunrise will
translate SE to near Kansas City by 7 pm. While modest southerly
return flow will begin today, the general cool/dry/stable boundary
layer associated with this anticyclone will be in control for one
more day. Winds will back more SEly by late in the day. With
upslope components, and continued thick mid clouds, and 850 mb
temps going virtually nowhere from yesterday, expect comfortable
high temperatures again today, within a few degrees of 80.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast through
tonight, with coverage favoring the SW counties. Cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

NAM/WRF develops convective precipitation along a sfc/850 hPA
stationary front Monday evening across west central Kansas in what
should be a good severe environment bulk shear and CAPE-wise. GFS
is more broad based with it`s precipitation over the central and
southern High Plains warm sector. Temperatures remains at or near
normal through midweek before breaking out above normals as the
northwesterly flow aloft pattern breaks down in favor of
westerlies and the return of the dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR will continue at the airports through this TAF cycle. Mid
layer cloud decks around 7-9k ft AGL continue to be very
persistent along and south of a GCK-DDC line on satellite imagery.
Model soundings and consensus of short term models agree this
will not change much through Sunday, with overcast altocumulus or
altostratus persisting near 7k ft. After 21z Sun, cigs lower some
more to near 4k ft AGL at GCK and LBL. Kept DDC/GCK TAFs dry
through Sunday. The exception will be LBL, where NAM model shows
convection in the TX panhandle through much of Sunday, close
enough to warrant VCTS/CB. NAM also has TSRA near/just NE of HYS
by 00z Monday. A modest increase in S/SW winds at DDC/GCK/LBL
after 15z, averaging 10-15 kts, backing more SEly after 21z. Winds
expected to stay more NEly at HYS at similar speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  80  62  84 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  56  78  59  84 /  20  20  30  20
EHA  57  74  61  84 /  40  30  40  30
LBL  60  76  63  84 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  56  78  59  82 /  10  30  30  30
P28  60  83  62  85 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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