Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202355
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the intermountain west will progress
east-northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR category conditions are expected through this TAF period.
Southerly flow will prevail at the surface. Gusts will cease
around 01-02 UTC and surface winds will fall below 12 knots by
around midnight. Diurnal mixing will resume Monday morning after
15 UTC as winds become moderately gusty in the 20 to 26 knot
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell






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