Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281721
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1221 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

At 12z Thursday on upper level low was located over western Iowa
while another upper level low was centered over west central
Arizona. Over the Central Rockies and West Central High Plains a
west to southwesterly flow was present in the 700mb and 500mb
level. At the surface earlier this morning an area of low pressure
was located over eastern New Mexico with a surface boundary
extending east southeast across the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

A few sprinkles were occurring early this morning along
a mid level baroclinic zone with mid level moisture. Isentropic
lift will increase late today in the cool air north of a
developing baroclinic zone as the aforementioned upper level
trough approaches and surface low pressure develops over West
Texas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected
starting this evening and persisting through the night. Lows will
be mainly in the 40s after highs today in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Rain and thunderstorms will persist through Friday before
tapering off late in the day. Rain amounts will exceed 1 inch in
some places. Given the cool upslope flow and rainfall,
temperatures will not get out of the 40s in far western Kansas,
with some lower to mid 50s father east. Temperatures should fall
into the 30s to lower 40s by Saturday morning, with the coldest
readings along the Colorado state line in the lower to middle 30s.
The next chance of rain will be late Sunday as the next upper
level system approaches along with isentropic lift. Cool
temperatures will persist through Sunday but a moderating trend
can be expected by early to mid next week as the upper level
troughing moves off to the east and upper level ridging develops
over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Clouds will thicken and lower late this afternoon and early
tonight as moisture and lift begins to improve across western
Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are currently expected to spread
into the DDC and GCK areas around 03z and then HYS after 06z.
This precipitation will continue to increase in coverage through
the overnight hours. As showers and thunderstorms increasing in
areal coverage overnight the ceilings are expected to lower into
the MVFR category between 06z and 09z. IFR/LIFR ceilings are then
expected to develop after 10z. Visibilities will also decrease
after 12z in the steadier and heavier showers. Winds will be
mainly easterly at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  45  52  39 /  10  90  90  70
GCK  63  42  49  37 /  10 100  90  60
EHA  64  44  54  34 /  20  70  70  30
LBL  65  47  55  39 /  10  80  70  40
HYS  60  43  51  42 /  10  80  90  80
P28  69  51  64  44 /   0  80  90  80

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert


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